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Creating Opportunities
Colombia Outlook
Macroeconomic performance perspectives:
the challenge of taking care of the health and
wellbeing of colombians
Closing date: April 23 (except for COVID-19 data)
2Q20
Creating Opportunities
01Strong impact of COVID-19 on
global growth produces an
unprecedented public policy
reaction
3BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
COVID-19 is a human tragedy. Colombia within Latin-American has
managed to maintain numbers relatively low
DAILY INFECTED PEOPLE IN SELECTED COUNTRIES(3-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
DAILY DEATHS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES(3-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
Note: 17th - 20th February WHO reported all confirmed cases, including both laboratory-confirmed and those clinically diagnosed
Source: BBVA Research, Johns Hopkins University (data updated up to 00:00 GMT April 27)
4BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Source: BBVA Research based on Haver.
PMI INDICATORS(MORE THAN 50: EXPANSION; LESS THAN 50: CONTRACTION)
Activity indicators already show the highly contractive effects of
COVID-19 in the main geographies
The supply shock due to confinement is the main
impact channel in the very short term
Other channels:
○ Demand (confidence, social consumer
goods)
○ Financial (borrowing costs, financial wealth
destruction)
○ Other supply shocks (global supply chains)
Confidence and employment indicators show a very
severe impact in 2Q20
In China, there are already signs of a rapid recovery
in activity25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jul-1
9
Aug-1
9
Sep-1
9
Oct-
19
No
v-1
9
De
c-1
9
Jan-2
0
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0Europe USA China
5BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
High uncertainty: we anticipate a deep recession
with a rapid but incomplete recovery
China, Italy and Spain as a
benchmark for the evolution
of new cases
No new cycles of
widespread contagion
Around 6 to 8 weeks
Gradual reversal
They will be maintained
or amplified
High effectiveness (real
and financial)
EXPANSION OF
COVID-19
CONFINEMENT
MEASURES
ECONOMIC STIMULUS
MEASURES
Main assumptions of our economic scenario
6BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
5.5 6.54.5
2021
Growth forecasts: a global recession in 2020, followed by a
partial recovery in 2021
USA
Eurozone
China
GDP growth in %. Forecasts for 2020 and 2021
Source: BBVA Research
World
-4.4 -3-7
2020
3.4 52
20212019 2.3
-5.2 -3-8
2020
4.1 5.52.5
2021
2.2 3.51.0
2020 2019 6.1
-2.4
2020 2019 3.0
2019 1.2
4.8
2021
7BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
OPEP+ has agreed to cut production, ending the
conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia
Even so, prices continue to be very low due to the
collapse of global demand
However, they are expected to recover as world
growth accelerates and supply adjusts
This low price environment is especially damaging
to countries that export commodities
(F) Forecast.
Source: BBVA Research
2020(f) 2021(f)2017 2018 2019
61
6864
39
50
61
Actual Previous
61
OIL: BRENT(DOLLARS PER BARREL, ANNUAL AVERAGE)
The global recession is dragging oil prices down,
despite the recent supply reduction agreement
8BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Regional financial assets depreciated swiftly with the outbreak of
COVID-19, by have shown a shy recovery in recent weeks
LATAM EXCHANGE RATES, SELECTED COUNTRIES(INDEX, 20 FEB 2020=100)
LATAM CDS, SELECTED COUNTRIES(INDEX, 20 FEB 2020=100)
Source: BBVA Research with Datastream and Bloomberg data
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
20
-Fe
b
27
-Fe
b
5-M
ar
12-M
ar
19-M
ar
26-M
ar
2-A
pr
9-A
pr
16-A
pr
23-A
pr
Peru Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia
Depreciation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20-F
eb
27-F
eb
5-M
ar
12
-Ma
r
19-M
ar
26
-Ma
r
2-A
pr
9-A
pr
16-A
pr
23-A
pr
Peru Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia
9BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
(*) Weighted average sentiment of media news where the associated "economy" and "uncertainty" topics
appear and weights it by the coverage of these news.
Source: BBVA Research based on GDELT data
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY INDEX (*)(AUGUST 21st 2019 = 100)
• Epidemiological uncertainty:
• Pandemic control deadlines
• Speed of the “opening” process
• Possible new waves of infections
• Availability of a vaccine or treatment
• Economic uncertainty:
• Stimulus effectiveness
• Effect on public and private debt levels
• Financial uncertainty
• Rebound of financial tensions
• Systemic crisis risk
• The pandemic raises many questions about the
long term
Uncertainty is exceptionally high and the balance of
risks is tilted to the downside
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-
18
Oct-
18
Jan
-19
Ap
r-19
Jul-
19
Oct-
19
Jan
-20
Ap
r-20
Creating Opportunities
02The effects on the colombian
economy depend both of the
advancement of the sanitary
crisis as of the policy response
11BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
External demand. Reduction in income and
weak global growth will not be compensated
by depreciation.
Lower oil price. Impact on exports,
Exchange rate, investment and fiscal
balance.
Financial turmoil. Grater global risk aversion
affects the valuation of local assets.
INTERNAL CHANNELSEXTERNAL CHANNELS
Supply shock. Transitory paralysis of
activity to safeguard lives.
Lower local demand. Reduction in national
disposable income and a deterioration of
the labor market.
Fall in investment. Lower local and foreign
investment due to uncertainty, lower
demand and unutilized installed capacity.
COVID-19 effects will materialize on the Colombian economy
through internal and external channels
12BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Social indicators take time recovering
Non essential sectors start to reopen gradually
Food, hygiene products, health and communication technology services
Growth prospects will depend on the length of confinement, policy
effectiveness and external environment
Consumption shrinks to essential expenditure
Consumption recovers gradually
A low “social expenditure” remains with low oil prices
Lower supply of products
Greater public expenditure: health and transferences
Help mitigate the fall in consumption (for low income households)
Non essential expenditure as clothing and online commerce
Closure of non essential sectors Help reactivate the economy and labor income
Lower disposable income
Lower oil prices and deterioration of the labor market
Global growth with smaller imported component
New subsidies and support programs
Exports take time recovering
Tourism activities, restaurants and massive events take time recovering
WEAK CONFINEMENTAROUND 1.5 MONTHS
STRONG CONFINEMENT
AROUND 1.5 MONTHS
RECOVERY
13BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The first response under the pandemic has been to protect the
most vulnerable households
Government
Direct transferences to the most vulnerable (subscribed in prior social
programs, solidarity income and VAT returns)
Utilities financing for some months and free reconnection
Tariffs reduction to some imported health products
Protection to public employment
Financing optimization and investment in health expenditure
Deferral of monthly payments for consumption credit and mortgages to the
financial system for up to six months
Protection to newly unemployed affiliated to “cajas de compensación”, worker
supplementary wellbeing services institutions
Compensation of partial loss in labor income with private “layoff funds”
Free reconnection of mobile phone services
Others
Creating Opportunities
03Sector effects will be
heterogeneous both in the
confinement and recovery
periods
15BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The shock will have a heterogeneous impact amongst economic sectors due
to confinement, social distancing and travel restrictions
High impact Low impact
Tourism,
Hotels and
restaurants
Communications,
real state and
professional
services
Government* and
utilities
Transport
Agriculture, food
manufacturing and
basic good retailers
Entertainment
Intermediate impact
Non-food
manufacturing
and mining
Construction
Non-basic good
retailers
* Includes health, education and public administrationConfinementSocial distancing Travel restrictions
16BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
3-mar 20-mar 31-mar 13-apr 27-apr 11-may 30-may 23-jun 30-jun 15-jul 30-jul 12-aug
Previous l. Strong confinement Light confinement Recovery
Agro, Agro industry, Health, PublicServices and Communication
Real estate, financial andprofessional activities
Remaining industry
Commerce
Mining
Construction
Transport
Tourism, entertainment andrestaurants
Second Quarter
(weight)
30
21
9
8
6
5
5
6
Low
Impact
High
Impact
Intermediate
Impact
This differences will map on the intensity and duration of the
effect over the different sectors
SECTOR ACTIVITY DURING THE CONFINEMENT AND RECOVERY PERIODS(IMPACT OVER ITS PREVIOUS LEVEL = 100%, WEIGHT ON THE GDP IN %)
Source: BBVA Research
100%
Creating Opportunities
04Private consumption and
investment will respond with
significant contraction in
2020, to then recover
gradually
18BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
BBVA CONSUMPTION INDICATOR BY COUNTRY*(7-DAY AVERAGE YoY, %)
High frequency indicators show the deterioration in private
consumption in several economies
* Shadow: 2019 holly weak base effect
Source: BBVA Research with transactional information of purchases made with BBVA debit and credit cards
According to BBVA Research sector indicators, airlines, clothing and entertainment are the most affected sectors. While,
health and food sectors had an important dynamic at the beginning of the confinement period, but start to moderate
BBVA CONSUMPTION INDICATOR BY CITY*(7-DAY AVERAGE YoY, %)
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
6-J
an
13
-Jan
20
-Jan
27
-Jan
3-F
eb
10
-Fe
b
17
-Fe
b
24
-Fe
b
2-M
ar
9-M
ar
16
-Mar
23
-Mar
30
-Mar
6-A
pr
13
-Apr
20
-Apr
Spain Turkey MexicoColombia Peru Argentina
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
5-J
an
14
-Jan
23
-Jan
1-F
eb
10
-Fe
b
19
-Fe
b
28
-Fe
b
8-M
ar
17
-Mar
26
-Mar
4-A
pr
13
-Apr
22
-Apr
Bogota Medellin CaliBarranquilla Cartagena Bucaramanga
19BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Not all consumption groups perform and recover in the same manner.
Consumption will rebound, but will remain growing less
CONSUMPTION GROUPS(RESPECT TO THE LEVEL PRIOR TO CONFINEMENT =100%)
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION(ANNUAL VARIATION, %)
Source: BBVA Research projections with DANE data
(f)
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Avg. 95-9
7
Avg. 98-9
9
Avg. 00-0
2
Avg. 03-0
7
Avg. 08-0
9
Avg. 10-1
4
Avg. 15-1
9
2020(f
)
2021(f
)
Avg. 22-2
5(f
)
t Montht+1
Montht + 1,5
Montht + 2
Montht + 3
Montht + 4
Montht + 9
Previous level Total confinement light confinement Recovery
Food and beverage Alcoholic products and tobaccoClothing Housing and public servicesFurniture HealthTransport CommuncationRecreation and culture EducationRestaurants and hotels
100%
20BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1-D
ec
1-M
ar
1-J
un
1-S
ep
1-D
ec
1-M
ar
1-J
un
1-S
ep
1-D
ec
Machinery and equipment Construction
FIXED TOTAL INVESTMENT(ANNUAL VARIATION, %)
Source: BBVA Research projections with DANE data
(f)
Two dynamics in investment: in the short run a strong contraction.
Later, construction should recover faster than machinery
INVESTMENT GROUPS(SEASONALY ADJUSTED SERIES, INDEX DEC19 =100, %)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Avg
. 95
-97
Avg
. 98
-99
Avg
. 00
-02
Avg
. 03
-07
Avg
. 08
-09
Avg
. 10
-14
Avg
. 15
-19
20
20(f
)
20
21(f
)
Avg
. 22
-25(f
)
21BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Growth will deteriorate in the short run, later it will recover with a fast
rebound but should stabilize at more moderate levels
SEASONALY ADJUSTED GDP(QUARTER VARIATION AND INDEX MAR19=100)
VARIATION OF ANNUAL GDP(ANNUAL VARIATION, %)
Source: BBVA Research projections with DANE data
3,3
-3,1
3,9
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ma
r-19
Jun
-19
Se
p-1
9
Dec-1
9
Ma
r-20
Jun
-20
Se
p-2
0
Dec-2
0
Ma
r-21
Jun
-21
Se
p-2
1
Dec-2
1
(f)
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
92%
96%
100%
104%
108%
112%
Ma
r-19
Jun
-19
Se
p-1
9
Dec-1
9
Ma
r-20
Jun
-20
Se
p-2
0
Dec-2
0
Ma
r-21
Jun
-21
Se
p-2
1
Dec-2
1Quarterly growth (t/t, rhs, %) Current forecast level
Previous forecast level
Creating Opportunities
05The piority of the measures
to confront this situation is
to protect emploument and
the wellbeing of colombians
23BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
High impact Low impact
Tourism,
Hotels and
restaurants
Communications,
real state and
professional
services
Agriculture, food
manufacturing and
basic good retailers
Transport
Entertainment
COVID-19 high impact sectors account for 33% of total employment
and 27% of labor income
7,4mill.
of jobs
Intermediate impact
Non-food
manufacturin
g and mining
Construction
Small retailers
Big retailers
$6,3bn/month
wage mass
4,1mill.
of jobs
$4,5bn/month
wage mass
10,9mill.
of jobs
$12,7bn/month
wage mass
Government* and
utilities
Source: BBVA Research with DANE data
24BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Therefore, protecting employment and smoothing workers income
loss is a priority, and thus it is key to protect entreprenual tissue
FORMAL EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION ACCORDING
TO THE SIZE OF THE COMPANY*(% OF COMPANIES AND OF EMPLOYMENT, 2018)
Big industrial company year revenue > 61.8 bn pesos. Medium industrial company year revenue between 7.3bn pesos and 61.8bn pesos. Small industrial company year revenue < 7.3bn pesos.
Source: BBVA Research with Confecamaras data
16,6
18,0
17,9
47,5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Microenterprise(92,4%)
Small (5,6%)
Medium (1,5%)
Big (0,5% of totalcompanies)
25BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Both, government and the private sector have responded with
measures to protect employment and companies
Government
Credit guarantees from the National Fund of Guarantees for SMEs and
independents for payroll and working capital purposes (80% to 90%
guaranteed)
Flexible credit lines with second floor public entities and Banco Agrario
Deferral of regional taxes in most principal cities of the country
Deferral of monthly payments of commercial credit due to the financial
system
Optional payment of only 3% of pension payments to workers for up to
3 months
Possibility to use countercyclical provisions and not to include credit
delinquencies due to deferrals of clients payments
Source: BBVA Research and MinHacienda
Other
26BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Despite the efforts, the unemployment rate will increase in 2020 and
only gradually recover in 2021
Source: BBVA Research projections with DANE data
URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(% OF THE ACTIVE ECONOMIC POPULATION)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 (
f)
2021 (
f)
2022 (
f)
2023 (
f)
2024 (
f)
2025 (
f)
Creating Opportunities
06The Central Bank acted
swiftly to guarantee liquidity
for the economy, in addition
reduced interest rates given
a lower expected inflation
28BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Central Bank actions focused initially on supporting the proper
functioning of the system of payments, and later in other measures
50pb rate reduction in
March
New expected
reductions in coming
months (125pb)
Policy rate could reach
its all time low with a
real negative rate
Liquidez
transitoria
Liquidez
permanente
Provisión de
divisas
Reserve requirement
reduction of 11% to 8%
for money market and
savings and of 4.5% to
3.5% for CDs of up to
18 months
This resources will be
used to buy public debt
to finance the
government (TDS)
TDS will may be used
as collateral in repo
operations with the
Central Bank
Authorized other
institutions in the
financial sector to
participate in repo
operations
Extended the maturity
of repo operations and
allowed private debt as
collateral
The Central Bank will
complete a COP14tn
asset purchase
Of which, COP10tn will
be of private debt and
COP4tn in public debt
The Central Bank
auctioned USD2.8bn:
USD2.0bn in 30 day
NDFs and USD0.8bn in
60 day swaps
The Central Bank was
granted access to the
FED dollar line (FIMA)
and extended the
flexible line with the IMF
Interest rate
reduction
Reserve
requirement
reduction
Transitory
liquidity
Permanent
liquidityFX liquidity
29BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
We expect additional monetary policy rate reductions for 125bp in
the second quarter of 2020, reaching a negative real rate
NOMINAL AND REAL MONETRAY POLICY INTERSET RATE(E.A.; %)
Source: BBVA Research with DANE and Banco de la República data
-1,65-0,39
-1,36 -1,03
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
De
c-9
9
De
c-0
0
De
c-0
1
De
c-0
2
De
c-0
3
De
c-0
4
De
c-0
5
De
c-0
6
De
c-0
7
De
c-0
8
De
c-0
9
De
c-1
0
De
c-1
1
De
c-1
2
De
c-1
3
De
c-1
4
De
c-1
5
De
c-1
6
De
c-1
7
De
c-1
8
De
c-1
9
De
c-2
0
De
c-2
1
Nominal rate Real rate (Expected inf.) Real rate (Current inf.)
30BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The global shock and the fall in oil prices pressure the exchange rate
in Colombia with an average depreciation of 18% in 2020
MONTHLY AND ANNUAL AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE(PESOS PER DOLLAR AND ANNUAL AVERAGE DEPRECIATION IN PARENTHESIS)
(f)
Source: BBVA Research with Banco de la República data
2956 (0.2%)
3273 (10.7%)
3863 (18.0%)
3525 (-8.7%)
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
Dec-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Mar-
19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
Jan
-20
Fe
b-2
0
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Jul-2
0
Au
g-2
0
Se
p-2
0
Oct-
20
Nov-2
0
Dec-2
0
Jan
-21
Feb-2
1
Ma
r-21
Ap
r-21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun
-21
Jul-2
1
Au
g-2
1
Se
p-2
1
Oct-
21
Nov-2
1
Dec-2
1
Exchange rate Average exchange rate for the year
31BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
In 2020 inflation will remain within the target range and will close at
3.4%. Its descent will continue in 2021 closing at 2.8%
INFLATION BY TYPE(ANNUAL VARIATON, %)
Headline
2020: 3.4%
2021: 2.8%
Foodstuffs
2020: 3.4%
2021: 3.2%
Core
2020: 3.4%
2021: 2.7%
Source: BBVA Research projections with DANE and Banco de la República data
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
De
c-1
7
Fe
b-1
8
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Oct-
18
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Apr-
19
Jun-1
9
Aug-1
9
Oct-
19
De
c-1
9
Feb
-20
Apr-
20
Jun-2
0
Aug-2
0
Oct-
20
De
c-2
0
Feb
-21
Apr-
21
Jun-2
1
Aug-2
1
Oct-
21
De
c-2
1
Total Core Foodstuffs
(f)
Creating Opportunities
07
The need for external
savings, the fiscal deficit
and public debt will grow
33BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
External deficit will be pressured by the commercial balance and fewer
remittances. Lower profit remission will partially cushion this effects
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DECOMPOSITION(USD BILLION)
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, FDI AND RESERVES(% OF GDP)
Source: BBVA Research projections with Banco de la República data
The financing of the
external deficit will be
completed with
external debt and the
use of public savings
abroad
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2018
2019
20
20 (
f)
20
21 (
f)
Accumulation of international reserves
Current account deficit
FDI
3,94,3
4,75,0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2019 2020 (f) 2021 (f)
Trade balance Services balance
Factor income Net transfers
Current account deficit (% GDP)
34BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The fiscal deficit of the Central National Government and its
financing needs will increase driven by the countercyclical fiscal
policy and lower expected revenue
Countercyclical
fiscal policy
Direct transferences to the most vulnerable, investment in the health sector.
Capital increase of the National Fund of Guarantees with resources of second floor
public banks and FONDES, among others
Revenue
reduction
Lower activity, lower oil prices and an increase in informality with lower capacity to
avoid tax evasion all reduce central Government revenue
Additional
Financing
Increase in the fiscal deficit financed mainly with debt with the regions (funds from
regional savings), with multilateral credit and other movements (such as reserve
requirement reduction to finance public debt issuance and the movement of the
programmed retiree fund from private pension funds to the public pension
administrator, among others)
35BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The structural strength of the economy gained in the past 30 years
allows to face the shock on a more firm standing
Credit
Reputation
Market confidence in
Colombian authorities,
their capacity of
response in the
current situation and
our long standing
commitment of
payment
Independent
monetary policy
Reaction capacity in
terms of liquidity and
rates. Ability to carry
out countercyclical
policies
Exchange rate
flexibility
Capacity to absorb
external shocks
reducing their effects
on the real economy:
production and
employment
Fiscal rule and
prudential regulation
Capacity to deliver
countercyclical policies
in economic
deceleration cycles
within the scheme of the
fiscal rule.
Ability to use
countercyclical
provisions to confront
lower liquidity conditions
Creating Opportunities
08
“Exit” strategies, the new
normal and some lessons
from the current situation
37BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The coordination of the exit strategy is a priority, at least in three
levels.
Careful selection of
sectors and
geographical zones to
reactivate
Economic
Activity
Continue
safeguarding
employment and
companies through
public policy during
the “exit” strategy
¿How to normalize
education?
Careful selection of
social groups with
“normal” activity
¿How to have
preventive and curative
healthcare of other
diseases?
¿How to open borders
to the transit of
people?
¿How to activate
global value chains?
Social
ServicesRelations with the
World
38BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
The new normal: global relations, sector order and household
decisions will be different
Policies and
world design
Expenditure and
economic
sectorsThe Household
Higher debt and fiscal
deficit will be “more
accepted”
A less open world
Credit rating scores
reduce worldwide
Lower “social”
consumption
A more digital world
Change in sector
relevance, relative
prices of goods and
services
Deterioration of social
indicators
Greater labor
participation, pursue
of formalization?
People with stable
income, will prioritize
savings?
39BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
Lessons looking forward
New
givens
Rules vs.
FlexibilityPrecaution
Health sector
strengthening
Know ourselves as a
society
¿detailed individual
census ?
Labor formalization
and safeguarding of
employment
Rules in good times allow
for flexibility in bad times
Future generations
will have to help bear
the costs of this crisis
Public support is
crucial for life quality
and recovery
The value of
entrepreneurial
digitalization
The value of savings
for companies,
households and
society as a hole
Creating Opportunities
AnnexForecast summary tables
41BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
(f) Forecast.
Source: BBVA Research with DANE, Banco de lla República and Ministerio de Hacienda data
Principal macroeconomic variables
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (f) 2021 (f)
GDP (% y/y) 2.1 1.4 2.5 3.3 -3.1 3.9
Private Consumption (% y/y) 1.6 2.1 3.0 4.6 -4.8 5.6
Public Expediture (% y/y) 1.8 3.6 7.0 4.3 5.0 2.2
Fixed Investment (% y/y) -2.9 1.9 1.5 4.6 -8.1 2.8
Inflation (% y/y, eop) 5.8 4.1 3.2 3.8 3.4 2.8
Inflation (% y/y, average) 7.5 4.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.0
Exchange rate (eop) 3,001 2,984 3,250 3,388 3,840 3,430
Devaluation (%, eop) -4.7 -0.6 8.9 4.3 13.3 -10.7
Exchange rate (average) 3,055 2,951 2,957 3,273 3,863 3,525
Devaluation (%, eop) 11.4 -3.4 0.2 10.7 18.0 -8.7
Policy interest rate (%, eop) 7.50 4.75 4.25 4.25 2.50 3.00
DTF rate (%, eop) 6.9 5.3 4.5 4.5 3.0 3.2
Fiscal Balance Central Nation Government (% GDP) -4.0 -3.6 -3.1 -2.4 -5.8 -3.9
Current Account (% GDP) -4.3 -3.3 -3.9 -4.3 -4.7 -5.0
Urban unemployment rate (%, eop) 9.8 9.8 10.7 11.1 15.3 14.1
TABLE A1. MACROECONOMIC FORECAST
42BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
(f) Forecast.
Source: BBVA Research with DANE and Banco de la República data
Principal macroeconomic variables
GDP
(% y/y)
Inflation
(% y/y, eop)
Exchange rate
(vs. USD, eop)
Policy interest rate
(%, eop)
Q1 17 1.0 4.7 2,880 7.00
Q2 17 1.2 4.0 3,038 5.75
Q3 17 1.6 4.0 2,937 5.25
Q4 17 1.5 4.1 2,984 4.75
Q1 18 1.7 3.1 2,780 4.50
Q2 18 2.9 3.2 2,931 4.25
Q3 18 2.8 3.2 2,972 4.25
Q4 18 2.6 3.2 3,250 4.25
Q1 19 3.2 3.2 3,175 4.25
Q2 19 3.3 3.4 3,206 4.25
Q3 19 2.5 3.8 3,462 4.25
Q4 19 3.4 3.8 3,277 4.25
Q1 20 1.1 3.9 3,870 3.75
Q2 20 -7.6 3.3 4,100 2.50
Q3 20 -4.2 3.6 3,970 2.50
Q4 20 -1.5 3.4 3,840 2.50
Q1 21 0.3 3.1 3,570 2.50
Q2 21 8.4 3.1 3,500 2.50
Q3 21 4.8 2.7 3,480 2.50
Q4 21 2.4 2.8 3,430 3.00
TABLE A2. MACROECONOMIC FORECAST
Creating Opportunities
Colombia Outlook
Macroeconomic performance
perspectives: the challenge of taking
care of the health and wellbeing of
colombians
2Q20
44BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
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Tel.:+57 346 16 00 ext 11448 - [email protected] / www.bbvaresearch.com
45BBVA Research / Colombia Outlook 2Q20
This report has been produced by:
Chief EconomistJuana Patricia Téllez
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: BBVA Research Colombia, Carrera 9 No 72 — 2 1, Piso 11 Bogotá, (Colombia)
Tel.:+57 346 16 00 ext 11448 - [email protected] / www.bbvaresearch.com
María Paula Castañ[email protected]
Mauricio Herná[email protected]
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Student Intern
Laura Rocío Rodrí[email protected]
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