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Present and future
public service delivery
costs
Ana I M o r e no M o nr o y , RD T/ C F E
EN RD Wo r k sho p o n V i b r ant Ru r a l Ar e as : Acce ss t o Se r v i ces
3 0 J une , 2 0 2 0
Service provision is unequal in space
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Regions with a city >1M Regions with a city>250K
Regions near a city>250K
Regions with/near a city<250K
Remote regions
%
% yearly change in hospital beds rate by type of region 2008-18
Source: Regions and Cities at a Glance 2020 (forthcoming)
Projected population
changes, population
under 15 years old
Projected population
changes, population
above 65 years old
EU population dynamics 2015-2050 –
under 15 and above 65
Public service provision is challenging for rural areas due to:✓high transportation costs
✓ low economies of scale and scope
✓difficulty in attracting and retaining professionals
Little consideration for additional costs of provision in rural areas✓Transfers to smaller municipalities to compensate for unavoidable
costs of rurality (Sweden)
✓ Inclusion of remoteness/smallness consideration in education and health funding formulas (UK)
✓Grants for small hospitals providing critical care (USA)
How much more expensive is it to provide services in rural areas?
Currently no available monetary estimates and projections of cost of public service delivery by type of human settlement
These allow:
✓Mapping and anticipating social and economic trends and suggest strategies to adapt needs and leverage opportunities (e.g. digital solutions)
✓Identifying vulnerable populations, areas at risk of under-provision and managing environmental risks
✓Proposing feasible service delivery alternatives to manage demographic transition
What is missing?
Estimation of future service delivery using population projections at grid-cell (1-km2) level
✓Demand: Present and future population by age group
✓Supply: Simulated facilities based on optimal access placement
Model costs at facility level considering:✓Costs arise in the facilities (e.g. schools), not in the areas (e.g. school
districts)
✓Public services are local, and are provided close to places of residency
✓Additional costs arise as a result of smallness
✓Transport costs are not necessarily born by the government
Preparing for future needs
1. Observe spatial
distribution of
relevant service
users (e.g. children in
primary school age)
2. Step by step,
distribute facilities
based on bounding
conditions
3. Allocate users to
facilities (e.g.
children to schools),
measure travel times
and estimate school
expenditure per user
Modelling facility distribution based on
population distribution
Education expenditure in England
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
mostlyuninhabited
rural
dispersed rural villages suburbs semi-densetowns
dense towns cities
Expenditure per student (difference with country mean, GBP) Share of small schools
School size influences cost per student, e.g. because small schools tend to underuse capacities
Source: UK Department of education and OECD-JRC preliminary estimations
Expenditure per student (mean-centred), England 2019
Expenditure per student vs school size, Actual and simulated
Estimates for present and future costs for education (primary & secondary) and hospitals for EU countries at settlement level
Policies with a lens on rural public service provision that combines:
✓Spatial considerations (medium and long term planning)
✓Public finance/assessing costs
✓Emerging service delivery strategies—new approaches and technologies
✓Multi level governance and multi sectoral perspectives
Next steps
