THE CHANGING FACE OF HOUSTON:Tracking the Economic and Demographic Trans-formations Through 29 Years of Houston Surveys

STEPHEN L. KLINEBERGPreparing to Dream Spring Institute

May 5, 2010

Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now housed in Rice’s Institute for Urban Research, the

annual surveys have interviewed 29 scientifically selected successive representative samples of Harris County residents.

In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston Area Sur- vey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.

The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of . . .

• a restructured economy and • a demographic revolution.

These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2010)

FIGURE 1: POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPOR-TUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2010)

38

27

18

31

48

52

67

52

57

4947

38

60

53

50

4039

67

7372

4140

2729

4546

11

41

76

05

1015202530354045505560657075808590

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9 10

Year of Survey

Perc

ent G

ivin

g Po

sitiv

e Ra

tings

Percent rating job opportunities in the Houston area as either "excellent" or "good."

FIGURE 2: NEGATIVE RATINGS OF JOB OP-PORTUNITIES IN RELATION TO THE OFFI- CIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2010)

23

58

71

87

80

65

56

49

4246

42

56

52 52

65

70

54

43

58 5659

3638

48

30

23

30

25

50

6.3

5.9

6.3

4.7

6.7

9.810.1

9.6

7.8

8.3

5.2 5.2

7.8

7.1

6.0

5.75.6

4.4 4.3

4.8

4.1 4.1

4.5

5.96.0

6.4

6.8

8.5

7.0

0

51015

20253035404550

55606570

7580

859095

100

105

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9 10

Year of Survey

Perc

ent G

ivin

g N

egat

ive

Rat

ings

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

Offi

cial

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ates

Percent rating "job opportunities" in the Houstonarea as only "fair" or "poor," in comparison withthe official unemployment rates in Harris County.

(Negative ratings ofjob opportunities)

(Official Unem-ployment rates in Harris County)

FIGURE 3: “WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY?” (1982-2010)

11

3

33

2327

20

2421

31

19

25

1820

59

45

2421

13

31

40

13

48

3334

31

2222

12

28

2426

35

25

20

87

43

98

8

37

4143

51

15121412

37

42

60

38

44

15

1013

98

121110

26

10

72

19

3435

60

49

39

24

36

1815

131110

17

11

6

1413

26

54

65

73

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9 10

Year of Survey

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

Traffic Economy Crime

(Traffic.)

(Economy.)

(Crime.)

FIGURE 4: PERCENT DOING BETTER FINAN-CIALLY IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS (1982-2010)

41

37

40

3235

4442

20

31

48

45

4947

40

34

37

31

35

32

41

37

31

3233

38

4243

4748

52

5860

56

626060

6264

59

65

5758

53

58

49

5351

605962

5858

60

666363

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9 10

Year of Survey

Perc

ent S

ayin

g, "

Bette

r."

Personal financial situation has been "getting better" during the last few years.

Think that will be "better off" financially three or four years down the road.

(Next few years.)

(Last few years.)

(r=-.005, n.s.)

(r=-.026, p.=.001)

FIGURE 5: RATINGS OF THE HOUSTON AREA IN GENERAL AS A PLACE TO LIVE (1996-2010)

66.572.1 71.4 71.4

75.4

81.7

32.827.2 27.7 27.5

23.517.7

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100105

1996 2001 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year of Survey

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

Excellent/Good Fair/Poor"How would you rate the Houston area in general as a place to live?" (r=+.079, p.=.000)

THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY

The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now

largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today re- quire high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.

In 2010, 67% of the survey respondents agreed that “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.” In the 2008 survey, 74% disagreed that “A high school education is enough to get a good job.”

In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

FIGURE 6: TWO CONTRASTING QUARTER-CENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II

116

4

100

9

111

13

114

22

99

46

86

68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

The Postwar Quarter-Century (1949-1979) The Millennial Quarter-Century (1979-2003)

Perc

ent I

ncre

ase

in B

efor

e-Ta

x In

com

es

Bottom 20% Second 20% Middle 20% Fourth 20% Top 20% Top 5%

Percent Increases in Before-Tax Household IncomesSource: U.S. Census; Robert H. Frank. 2007. Falling Behind. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, pp. 10-11.

FIGURE 7: CHANGING PERSPECTIVES ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY (1994-2010)

72

57

43

50

56

79

6561

66

60

57

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year of Survey

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

Agree: There are enough good jobs for all welfare recipients who really want to work.

Best way to reduce crime is to spend the money on poverty and schools (rather than more prisons).

Believe own overall standard of living is or will be higher than parents' standard of living.

(r=-.158, p.=.000)

(r=+.182, p.=.000)

(r=+.034, p.=.028)

(Own living standards will be higher than parents'.)

(Enough good jobs for all on welfare who want to work.)

(Spend the money on poverty, schools; not prisons.)

THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION

Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chi- cago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America. Throughout all of its history . . .

• this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,• dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken-

for-granted way, by white men.

Today . . .• Houston is one of the most culturally diverse metro-

politan areas in the country, and• all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”

FIGURE 8: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFOR-MATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2008)

Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses; *from the 2008 Official Population Estimates.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1960(1,243,258)

1970(1,741,912)

1980(2,409,547)

1990(2,818,199)

2000(3,400,578)

2008, est.*(3,984,349)

Popu

latio

n, in

Mill

ions

Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others

6.0% 19.8%

9.9%

20.1%

69.2%

15.5%

19.7%

62.7%

22.7%

19.1%

54.0%

6.7%

32.9%

18.2%

42.1%

6.7%

39.3%

17.9%

36.0%

73.9%

0.3%

0.8%

2.1%

4.1%

INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE

The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population.

Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, as are the 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, now aged 46 to 64. In the next 30 years, the numbers over age 65 will double.

The younger cohorts, who will replace the “Baby Boomers,” are disproportionately non-Anglo and far less privileged.

The “aging of America” is thus a division not only by genera- tion, but also by socioeconomic status and ethnic background.

Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of the Harris County population.

FIGURE 9: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, LATINO, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2006-2010, COMBINED)

60.0

41.5

23.6

19.2 19.1

24.622.7

16.0

28.4

45.1

2.34.9 5.5

8.6

67.3

11.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Ages 60-93 (N=941) Ages 45-59 (N=1,092) Ages 30-44 (N=785) Ages 18-29 (N=556)

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others

FIGURE 10: MEASURES OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2010)

24

17

26

39

25 2523 24

34

49

29

50

39

45

52

70

34

71

4954

6972

37

70

5659

77

83

44

68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Education beyondhigh school.

Household incomegreater than $35,000.

Uses a computer atwork or home.

Has health insurancefor self and family.

Lives in the suburbs,outside the city.

Owns the placewhere lives.

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

In U.S. 0-9 years (N=1,238) In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,213) In U.S. 20+ years (N=1,034)

2nd generation (N=1,524) 3rd+ generation (N=2,392)

FIGURE 11: INDICATORS OF ASSIMILATION AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN THE U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2010)

18

84

6467

45

78

27

78

6872

40

84

55

49

5753

31

63

87

30

43

34

26

59

92

18

3429

15

48

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100105110115120125

The interview wasconducted in English,rather than Spanish.

Respondent thinks ofself as primarily

Hispanic.

Preschoolers likely tohave problems later if

both parents work.

A disapproved-ofbook should be kept

out of public libraries.

The U.S. should admitmore immigrants inthe next ten years.

Three closest friendsin Houston are all

Hispanics.

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

In U.S. 1-9 years (N=1,229) In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,202) In U.S. 20+ years (N=1,021)

2nd generation (N=1491) 3rd+ generation (N=2,294)

FIGURE 12: CHANGING ASSESSMENTS OF HOUSTON’S ETHNIC DIVERSITY (1994–2010)

61

49

6664

5957

69

60

69

6563

54

6264

6967

5557

52

39

44

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year of Survey

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

The increasing diversity will become a source of great strength (not a growing problem) for the city.

The increasing ethnic diversity, due to immigration, is a good thing (rather than a bad thing).

The increasing immigration mostly strengthens (rather than threatens) American culture.

(r=+.020, n.s.)

(r=+.082, p.=.000)

(r=+.039, p.=.021)

(Source of strength.)(A good thing.)

(Strengthens American culture.)

FIGURE 13: SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (FROM 1991 THROUGH 2010)

59

66

56

60

48

19

38

2927 26

4143

52

36

52

64

73

3741

3430

32

43

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year of Survey

Perc

ent o

f Res

pond

ents

Favor: Allowing homosexuals to teach in the public schools. [r=+.094, p.=.000]

Favor: Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children. [r=+.215,p.=.000]

Favor: Alowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. [r=+.185, p.=000]

Agree: Give homosexual marriages same legal status as heterosexual marriages. [r=+.050, p.=.000]

(Gays teaching.)

(Gays in military.)

(Gay marriage.)

(Gay adoptions.)

CONCLUSIONS: HOUSTON AND AMERICA FACE SOME FORMIDABLE CHALLENGES

This city and nation will need to nurture a far more educated workforce, and fashion policies that can reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.

To attract the most innovative companies and talented indi- viduals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmen- tally appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the critical drivers of the new economy.

If the region is to flourish in the 21st century, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are invited to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.

The “Institute for Urban Research” at Rice UniversityProfessor Stephen L. Klineberg, Co-Director713-348-3484 or slk@rice.edu

Contact Rice University (at: has@rice.edu; or call713-348-4225) for copies of the following publications: * the report on the first 24 years of Houston surveys (Public Perceptions in Remarkable Times, 2005) * the report on survey findings in the six major sectors of the greater Houston area (Regional Perspectives, 2007)

For further information, or to download additional reports and PowerPoint slides, please visit the Institute’s websites, at: www.iur.rice.edu or www.houstonareasurvey.org

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