Preparing for the Election Cycle in Nigeria: Corruption and Intimidation

Preparing for the Election Cycle in Nigeria:

Corruption and Intimidation

UNLocK Update Report 10 August-November 2010

UNLOCK | THE FUND FOR PEACE

Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law

Copyright © 2011 The Fund for Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace Publication CR-11-09-UL (11-04C) Circulation: PUBLIC

and perspectives from populations in conflict-affected

zones into CAST, the FfP’s conflict assessment early

warning methodology. The project, the Early Warning

and State Building Initiative, is made possible with

funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York,

Humanity United, and National Endowment for

Democracy. The statements made and views expressed

are solely the responsibility of The Fund for Peace.

T his report was compiled by Jumoke Balogun and Jenna Torosian, under

the supervision of Nate Haken, Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace.

It is the second in a series that is part of a pilot project to integrate data

Preparing for the Election Cycle: Corruption and Intimidation 5 Analysis by Select Indicators 7 State-level Analysis 14 Looking Ahead 17 About The Fund for Peace 19

www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace

Contents


Nigeria early warning network, with a particular focus

on the state and local levels in the Niger Delta region.

According to these incident reports, candidates

reportedly engaged in intimidation against their

opponents. Candidates and their family member were

kidnapped or killed. Criminal and vigilante elements

were reportedly co-opted or recruited for political

reasons. Officials were accused of corruption. The

government’s rebel amnesty program continued to

falter due in part to ambiguity and controversy over

who is eligible to participate. Floods destroyed homes

and poverty.

This report provides an overview of the pressures at

the local level as reported during this four-month

period. These issues should be monitored and

addressed to reduce pressures which could lead to

violence during the April presidential election.

A Focus on Bayelsa and Abia States

Bayelsa and Abia are both located in the oil-rich Niger

Delta. They face similar issues, such as armed militant

groups and government corruption. Pages 15 and 16

provide a deeper analysis of those two states.

Pages 4 through 8 summarize the reports by indicator

with geographic visualizations of where pressures

were reported.

Findings

This is the second summary report for UnLock Nigeria.

The report covers four months (August 1 to November

30, 2010) of field reports from participating civil society

organizations.

D uring the period covered by this report (August-November 2010) the

election season was getting under way. This report compiles the

incidents and issues documented by civil society in the UNLocK


Preparing for the Election Cycle: Corruption and Intimidation

Economy

Demographic Pressures

Human Flight/Brain Drain

Refugees or Displaced Persons

Group Grievance

Uneven Development

Legitimacy of the State

Public Services

Human Rights

Security Apparatus

Factionalized Elites

External Intervention

Social

Political

Economic

The Indicators

The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought

include social, economic, and political/military

pressures on the state:

Broken down by indicator and state, there were 224

reports logged during this period. Of the 12 CAST

indicators (see page 6 for a description of the

indicators), issues relation to Security Apparatus were

the most prominent (57 reports), followed by State

Legitimacy (39 reports), Human Rights (36 reports),

Factionalized Elites (26 reports), Public Services (21

reports), Economic Pressures (18 reports), Group

Grievance (13 reports), Demographic Pressures (9

reports), Human Flight (3 reports), and Refugees/IDPs

(2 reports).

Geographically, most of the reports came from the

South-South region (158 reports) followed by the South

-East (36 reports), South-West (5 reports), Federal

Capital (5 reports), North-Central (2 reports), and

North-West (1 report). There were 15 reports that dealt

with the country as a whole.

The distribution of reports reflects the geographical

spread of the participating organizations, most of

which are based in the South-South. Many of them are

human rights and civil rights organizations, which

influences the types of reports that they send. Thus,

this summary provides a rich description of the

environment over the last four months, as seen by civil

society focused in the Niger Delta region.

Methodology

In May 2010, The Fund for Peace conducted a training

workshop in conflict early warning, based on our

conflict assessment methodology (CAST). Participants

included a broad range of civil society representatives

in Nigeria, the goals being to enable them to recognize

potential danger signs, document events, gather data

from across the country and communicate it to each

other and the FfP for processing and analysis. This

information is to be used both for helping people get

out of harm’s way in the short term, as well as for

developing conflict-sensitive approaches to

development and policy in the long term. Since the

UNLocK early warning system was established, over

431 reports (broken out by indicator and state) have

been entered into the database as of this writing. The

data generated by the participants has been saved on a

password-protected website, accessible by the

participants for their own analysis and for the

corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.

Election Security and Stability


Number of Reports by Indicator

60

40

20

0

Demographic Pressures

Refugees and ID

Ps

Group Grie

vance

Human Flight a

nd Brain Drain

Uneven Economic Development

Economic Pressures

State Legitim

acy

Public Services

Human Rights and Rule of Law

Security

Apparatus

Factio

nalized Elite

s

External In

terventio

n


Analysis by Select Indicators


Reported Refugees or Internally-Displaced Persons

Issues relating to refugees and IDPs were not

emphasized in this period. However, there were a few

reports of displacement highlighting the lack of public

services and insecurity in some parts of the country.

• Several communities were displaced due to flooding

in Bayelsa (State 6)

• Ethnic grievances between the Nsadop and Boje

communities in Cross Rivers (State 9), reportedly

caused the displacement of thousands, many of

whom fled to Ikom LGA.

Reported Demographic Pressures

In the previous period (April-July 2010) environmental

degradation was the dominant issue in this indicator.

This period natural disasters were reported more

frequently, especially flooding associated with the

rainy season as well as poor infrastructure to deal with

such disasters. As reported by civil society, flooding

devastated several communities in the South-South

region:

• Communities in several LGAs in Bayelsa (State 6),

including Kolokuma-Opokuma, Sagbama, and

Southern Ijaw, were reportedly completely

submerged due to massive flooding.

• It was estimated that N100 billion was needed to

address the problems of erosion and flooding in the

Oredo LGA in Edo (State 12)

• In Akwa Ibom (State 3), flooding led to loss of lives

and property.

• Unrelated to flooding, uncoordinated efforts by the

national and the Abia state government (State 1) to

curb environmental degradation led to a dispute

between the newly formed Abia State

Environmental Protection Agency (ASEPA) and the

federal Ministry of Environment.

• Participants highlighted the lack of enforceable

legislation on environmental pollution in Delta

(State 10).

12

10

6 32

1

3

6

9

Nigeria

Nigeria



Reported Human Flight

It was reported that insecurity due to kidnappings,

militancy, and gang violence, as well as the general

lack of economic opportunity have motivated the

skilled and educated to leave some areas, putting a

strain on human capital, particularly in the South East:

Abia (State 1) and Anambra (State 4).

Reported Group Grievance

According to reports from UNLock participants, ethnic

tension in the South South and South East was an issue

that led to violence on several occasions.

• There was tension reported in Akuku Toru LGA in

Rivers (State 32). Several chiefs demanded that the

Kula Amayanabo be dethroned by the state

governor for allegedly withholding Chevron-

sponsored scholarship money, importing weapons,

mobilizing youths, and intimidation. Some have

threatened violence if the issue is not resolved.

• The Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People

(MOSOP) in Rivers (State 32) alleged that the federal

government is mismanaging the amnesty program

for militants.

• Intra-communal violence in the Ataba community in

the Andoni LGA in Rivers (State 32) left several

dead.

• In Port Harcourt LGA, Rivers (State 32) Bundu

Indigenes sued the federal government for

destroying their waterfront settlements in 2009.

• An ethnic clash in Boki, Cross Rivers (State 9)

between the Nsadop and Boje communities killed

several people.

• In Gokana, Rivers (State 32), several were reportedly

killed, and several houses and cars were burned by

youths from different communities after a conflict

was sparked by a missing cell phone. It was

reported that there had been a land dispute between

the two groups prior to the incident.

9

10

6 32

1

3

1

4

Nigeria

Nigeria



Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy

Accusations of police, government, and military

impunity and corruption made this the second most

reported indicator this period. These issues not only

undermine government legitimacy, but also stifle

economic growth.

• The former chairman of the Nigeria Football

Federation (NFF) and three others were indicted for

mismanaging the N900 million World Cup budget.

• There were reports of government corruption in

Cross River (State 9), Delta (State 10) and Rivers

(State 32).

• Andoni local government chairwoman was

impeached for breach of security and misconduct in

Rivers (State 32).

• Allegations of police impunity, corruption, and

brutality were reported in several Rivers (State 32)

LGAs (Gokana, Port Harcourt, Emohua, Khana).

• Protests and riots were reported in Edo (State 12),

Plateau (State 31) and Rivers (State 32), and Abuja

(State 37).

• There have been strikes at state universities in the

South-South and South-East region after the state

government refused to pay the amount for wages

requested by the federal government.

• Disputed elections and impeachments have caused

confusion in Delta (State 10) and Bayelsa (State 6)

• Accusations of military impunity were reported in

Gokana, Rivers (State 32)

Reported Economic Decline

During this period, youth unemployment was the

main issue reported within this indicator. In Aba

South LGA, Abia (State 1) gangs and militants laid

siege to the commercial city. As people fled the city

and banks closed, traders called for a state of

emergency and President Goodluck Jonathan sent

federal troops to the city to curb the violence which

affected the supply of goods to the rest of the country.

• The recent upsurge in kidnapping cases in the South

South reportedly led to the migration of prominent

men and businesses and adversely affected local

economies.

• UNLock civil society members also reported that

unemployed youths in several other states,

including Delta (State 10) have resorted to violent

crimes, and abductions for ransom.

24

10

6

1

3

12

10

6 32

14

9

37

31

Nigeria

Nigeria



Reported Human Rights Violations

Several high profile murders highlight the

vulnerability of public officials and their families.

Several cases, including the murders of the Head of a

unit at the Economic and Financial Crimes

Commission (Kaduna—State 18), a political aspirant

(Imo—State 16), a state commissioner (Bayelsa—State

6), a prominent doctor (Abia—State 1), a PDP chieftain

(Rivers—State 32), chairman of the PDP (Akwa

Ibom—State 3) and an activist (Lagos—State 24) are

troubling indicators that political disputes are

frequently solved through violent means.

• Public officials are not the only victims of violence.

Three men were murdered in Port Harcourt, Rivers

(State 32)

• Instances of gender-based violence, including a case

of child molestation, were reported in Eleme and

Gokana LGAs in Rivers (State 32) and in Aba South

LGA in Abia (State 1)

• Vigilante justice was also reported in the child

molestation case in Rivers (State 32)

• The father of a newspaper assistant editor was

kidnapped in Ekiti (State 13).

• Further, several school children were abducted in

Abia and some foreign nationals were also

abducted.

• Several cases of police extortion were reported in

Rivers and Bayelsa (State 6). The Joint Task Force

(JTF) was also implicated in extortion schemes with

commercial drivers being the major target.

Reported Pressures on Public Services

Reports from UNLock participants suggest that

inadequate policing presents a major challenge to

sustainable security. There were also several reports

on inadequacies in the transportation, health, and

education systems.

• Police in Rivers (State 32) were accused of hasty

accusations in the murder of the former militant

leader Soboma George.

• Several bus drivers have reportedly been killed

during robberies on the road between Abia (State 1)

and Rivers.

• In Rivers, Primary Health Care Centers in the Port

Harcourt area were abandoned due inadequate

government leadership.

• Over the past decade in Cross River (State 9),

unfinished road projects have cost about N150

billion and have resulted in accusations of

embezzlement.

• Port Harcourt International Airport in Rivers

reportedly does not meet international safety

standards.

16

6 32

1 9

37

30

Nigeria

13

24

6 32

16 1

37

18

Nigeria



Reports on Security Apparatus

Security Apparatus issues were the most reported by

UNLock participants. Incidents related to problems

with non-state armed militias, government security

forces, and organized crime. The security crisis in the

country was highlighted by the Independence Day

bombings in the Federal Capital Territory (State 37),

where MEND militants detonated bombs near the

ceremonial site during the country's 50th anniversary.

Although an amnesty deal between militants in the

Niger Delta and the government was announced just a

year ago, UNLocK participants reported that militants

are believed to have started re-arming due to failed

amnesty promises. Coupled with inadequate

government policies, a general lack of confidence in

the justice system, and an impending election in April,

the situation has the potential to deteriorate further.

• In Delta (State 10), Bayelsa (State 6), and Rivers (State

32), ex-militants continue to protest the failing

amnesty programs.

• MEND, the Movement for the Emancipation of the

Niger Delta, issued press statements after the

independence day bombing that threatened state and

oil facilities.

• An attack on an oil facility was reported in Bayelsa

(State 6).

• Kidnappings of school children, government

officials, political aspirants, educators. Businessmen,

and foreign officials were reported in Abia (State 1),

Akwa Ibom (State 3), Anambra (State 4), and Rivers

(State 32).

• The issue of arms proliferation was reported in

several states- Lagos (State 24), Rivers (State 32), and

Borno (State 8). Tens of thousands of weapons were

intercepted by government officials. Further, it was

reported by UNLocK civil society members that

MEND was believed to be rearming in Bayelsa (State

6)

• A resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta has also

led to violent crackdown on militants by the Joint

Task Force (JTF) in Delta (State 10) and Bayelsa (State

6).

• Reports indicate that police impunity continues to be

a problem. Police corruption and impunity were

reported in Akwa Ibom (State 3), Bayelsa (State 6),

Delta (State 10), Edo (State 12), and Rivers (State 32).

Allegations include unlawful arrests, unprovoked

violent outburst, and bribery.

• The vigilante group, the “Bakassi Boys” formed in

Abia (State 1) have reportedly carried out several

instances of vigilante justice. Vigilante justice was

also reported in Anambra (State 4).

• In Delta (State 10), Rivers (State 32), and Bayelsa

(State 6), state-sponsored militia activities were

reported.

24

10

6 32

4

16

37

8

1

3 Nigeria


Reported Factionalized Elites

Kidnappings and abductions of public officials and

members of their families were reported the be a major

problem. Similar to the last period, factionalization at

all levels of government continues to undermine

political stability. Further, there are reports that several

prominent actors, in association with militants, are

instigating electoral violence before the April elections.

• In Akwa Ibom (State 3), the young son of a political

aspirant was kidnapped. Further, a university

professor and Gokana Local Government

chairmanship aspirant was found murdered in his

car in Rivers (State 32)

• Also in Akwa Ibom, this time in the Uyo LGA, the

brother of an important statesman was kidnapped.

The wife of a man vying for the governorship was

also kidnapped in Uyo.

• A dispute between the governor and deputy

governor in Bayelsa (State 6) continued to gridlock

state politics.

• The governorship was still undecided in Delta (State

10) and in Enugu (State 14), fractionalization at the

state level continued to hamper political

development

• 12 members of the PDP were arrested for unlawful

assembly and charged with cultism and illegal

possession of arms in Rivers.

• Political infighting within the Ogun (State 27)

legislature has reportedly led some lawmakers to go

into hiding.

• In Edo, the non-PDP governor believes that

corruption allegations by the PDP were politically

motivated.


27

10

6 32

14

16

13

12

3 Nigeria


Number of Reports by State

60

40

20

0

80

Abia

Akwa Ibom

All L

GAs

Anambra

Bayelsa

Borno

Cross River

Delta

Edo

Ekiti

Enugu

Federal C

apital Territo

ry

Imo

Kaduna

Lagos

Niger D

elta

Ogun

Oyo

Plateau

Rivers


State-Level Analysis

Sub-regional Analysis

Bayelsa State

Bayelsa, a state in the South-South region, located

between Delta and Rivers, is embroiled in political

disorder, related in part to organized crime and

militancy. Once governed by current President

Goodluck Jonathan, the affairs of the state are

currently in disarray with political leaders reportedly

resorting to violence against one another.

Political tension in the state goes back at least as far as

the 2007 gubernatorial race. In that election, PDP

candidate Timipre Sylva won the race, but was

challenged by his opponent Ebitimi Amgbare (Action

Congress). The Appeals Court unanimously nullified

the election and ordered a new one, which Sylva won

overwhelmingly in 2008. In 2010, several violent

events, targeted at public officials, point to a

particularly vitriolic political environment, one that

might be exacerbated in the lead-up to the 2011

election:

• After the impeachment of deputy-governor

Peremobowei Ebebi in June 2010, his residence was

bombed.

• In October, the Governor was booed and stoned by

ex-militants unhappy with the amnesty program.

(Yenagoa LGA 1)

• In November, a bomb went off at the premises

of Tim Alaibe’s country residence, in Opokuma

LGA 5, killing one police constable. Alaibe was the

chairman of the Niger Delta Development

Commission (NDDC) and running against Sylva in

the gubernatorial race. A police constable was killed

in the process.

• The Governor was reportedly paying "Bayelsa

Volunteers," a non-state armed group, to maintain

law and order.

The amnesty program initiated by late President

Yar’adua seemed promising in the beginning of the

year, but lack of oversight and the perception of

unfulfilled promises have reportedly led some to re-

arm. UNLock civil society members listed several

instances of instability in the state:

• Militants attacked an oil pipeline in Osiama

(Southern Ijaw LGA 3) and forced the oil company

to shut down the 60,000 bpd operation pending

investigation.

• The military action ordered by the federal

government against recent acts of terrorism and

resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta led to a

raid of several militant camps (Yenagoa and

Southern Ijaw LGA 3)

Complicating matters in the state, and adding to the

frustration of the people, flooding in October left many

displaced and without adequate public services:

• Flooding from the River Nun completely submerged

communities. Schools and other community

institutions were also submerged and 5,000

inhabitants lost their lives in the deluge. (Kolokuma-

Opokuma LGA 5, Sagbama LGA 4, and Southern

Ijaw LGA 3)

Combined with reports of police and military

impunity, a resurging militancy, and a disorderly state

government which co-opts and recruits non-state

armed groups, Bayelsa is a state under great pressure.

Upcoming elections have heightened tension. Civil

society is very much concerned about the possibility of

election-related violence.

2

3

4 5

1

6

Bayelsa State


Sub-regional Analysis

Abia State

Abia is located between Rivers and Akwa Ibom States.

It has historically had problems with criminality, civil

strife, and violence. With oil deposits in the southern

part of the state, there has been tension over

compensation, environmental degradation, and

resource allocation for development and

infrastructure. In response to the insecurity the Joint

Task Force (JTF), a subdivision of the Nigerian Armed

Forces, has been deployed. In addition, the Bakassi

Boys, youth who are known for vigilante justice and

extrajudicial killings, have also been active in the state.

The period of August-November was difficult for

Abia. Security deteriorated, with rising criminality

and abductions, to the point that in September, a bus

was hijacked and 15 school children were abducted in

a single incident. As a result of the rising insecurity,

President Jonathan ordered a military offensive in

October.

Insecurity in Abia State reportedly caused people to

flee the area, both for safety and economic reasons.

Economic growth is very low in the state.

Unemployment is high. Kidnapping is common, and

hefty ransoms are demanded. It was reported that

often the victim is killed even after the ransom has

been received.

In the descriptions of incidents and issues below, most

of the reports dealing with insecurity and criminality

were associated with Aba South (LGA 1).

• The Bakassi Boys have reportedly been increasingly

active, including in the settlement of marital

quarrels and debt recovery. In the month prior to

this period, July, it was reported that the Bakassi

Boys killed five men who were accused of armed

robbery.

• A joint military task force was given orders to crack

down on the kidnapping in Abia State. It was

reported that armed personnel set criminal hideouts

and houses on fire. This issue was reported in Ukwa

West (LGA 2).

• In October, the security situation got so bad that the

President deployed thousands of soldiers to the

state. It was reported that the Bakassi boys worked

2

1

Abia State


for militants. In addition, vigilante groups have been

formed, sometimes in an attempt to provide security

and sometimes to further political aims. There have

also been efforts to address the economic side of the

instability, including foundations dedicated to

community development set up by oil companies.

As seen through a CAST lens, the social, economic,

security, and political drivers of conflict all need to be

addressed simultaneously. An integrated approach

such as that laid out by the recommendations of the

2008 Niger Delta Technical Committee Report, is

needed. A military approach without development

only aggravates the situation, and can further alienate

distrustful populations if the response is seen to be too

heavy handed or if the impact on civilians is too great.

Regarding the amnesty, ex-militants believe they have

been promised jobs training and allowances if they lay

down their guns. Aside from the difficulties of

identifying who is eligible for the allowance, and the

difficulties of ensuring that they receive it, allowances

cannot be distributed forever. That is not a long term

solution. If the economy is not producing jobs, the jobs

training becomes a formality they undergo so they can

collect their allowance. Eventually the allowances will

stop and ex-militants will go back to the creeks, which

some have already begun to do. Ultimately there

needs to be economic development for any of these

programs to work. However, without security,

development will not happen and vigilante groups fill

the gap with impunity.

These vigilante groups appear to have some popular

support, which emphasizes a troubling lack of

confidence in the security forces. Although these

parallel structures may fill a short term need, in the

long run, they contribute to an environment of

anarchy. State security forces need to do more to fulfill

the need for law and order by protecting civilians,

while minimizing the abuse and corruption that have

made them so distrusted in the first place.

Meanwhile, elections incentivize political actors to co-

opt or recruit armed groups from among the criminal

and vigilante elements. They do this because their

opponents are also doing it and because they believe

that if they do not do this, then they will surely lose, or

worse. Indeed, many aspiring candidates have been

abducted or assassinated in the last several months.

On the other hand, if they win the election, the

monetary benefits can be high. A lot of money moves

through the Niger Delta and corruption is a

crosscutting issue which contributes to all of the

economic, political and security issues highlighted

here.

Untying this knot is extremely difficult. Technical

improvements can be made in all of these areas, which

would improve the various parts of the problem. But

more broadly speaking, the government must take an

integrated approach: improve the implementation of

the amnesty program; increase investment in

infrastructure and public services such as health,

I n the Niger Delta region, criminality and militancy have worsened in the

last year. These problems have long appeared intractable, despite many

efforts to address them, including the deployment of troops and an amnesty


Recommendations

Recommendations

electricity, and education; and hold the security forces

accountable for human rights violations. Civil society

should be more proactive about bringing cases of

corruption to the courts.

It will take a combined effort of actors with conflicting

interests and good reasons to distrust each other,

working together, to address the political, security, and

development issues facing the Niger Delta and Nigeria

as a whole.



About The Fund for Peace

T he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit

research and educational organization that works to prevent violent

conflict and promote sustainable security.

Conflict Early Warning and Assessment

Transnational Threats

Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security

We promote sustainable security through research,

training and education, engagement of civil society,

building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing

innovative technologies and tools for policy makers.

A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning

field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of

weak and failing states. Our objective is to create

practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation

that are useful to decision-makers.

The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the

issues stemming from weak and failing states. We

work at both the grassroots level with civil society

actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.

We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide

range of partners in all sectors: governments, interna-

tional organizations, the military, nongovernmental

organizations, academics, journalists, civil society

networks, and the private sector.

The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives

focused on our central objective of promoting sustain-

able security, the ability of a state to solve its own

problems peacefully without an external military or

administrative presence. Our programs fall into three

primary thematic areas: Conflict Early Warning and

Assessment; Transnational Threats; and Sustainable

Development, Sustainable Security.

CR-11-08-UL

www.fundforpeace.org

Documents

Preparing for the Election Cycle in Nigeria: Corruption and Intimidation