Prepared by:

February 11, 2008

Post-Super Tuesday/Pre-Chesapeake TuesdayPolitical Media Analysis

Media Volume vs. Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday (January 23-February 5, 2008)

There is often a big difference between measuring media coverage and measuring media signal. The volume of media coverage is measured by counting the number of newspaper articles, TV segments, online posts, etc. Media signal, on the other hand, measures the audience reach of those newspaper articles, TV segments and online posts based on circulation, viewers and online site visitors.

The difference between these two measurements is particularly dramatic in the Republican presidential race.

The analysis throughout the rest of this report shows measurements in terms of media signal.

GOP Share of Voice –Media Volume

GOP Share of Voice –Media Signal

Mitt Romney35%

JohnMcCain

41%

MikeHuckabee

24%

Mitt Romney35%

JohnMcCain

51%

MikeHuckabee

14%

Post-Super Tuesday

National Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday

John McCain consistently led Mitt Romney in terms of audience reach in the 14 days leading up to Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee trailed both front-runners, but was never out of the limelight completely. In fact, Huckabee didn’t have to beat McCain or Romney in the media; in states such as Georgia and Missouri where his share of voice in the media rose well above his national 14% average, he won or placed second in those elections.

On the Democratic side, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton swapped the lead several times during the two week period, eventually running even in the media battle for voters’ eyeballs.

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

BarackObama49.3%

HillaryClinton50.7%

MittRomney

35%

JohnMcCain

51%

Mike Huckabee14%

National Baseline

0

200

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24-Ja

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1-Feb

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5-Feb

Med

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney

California Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday

Calif. Dem. Results:Clinton 52%Obama 42%

Calif. GOP Results:McCain 42%Romney 34%Huckabee 12%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

BarackObama51.2%

HillaryClinton48.8%

MittRomney

36%

JohnMcCain

49%

Mike Huckabee15%

National Baseline

0200400600800

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24-J

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Med

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1-Feb

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5-Feb

Med

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney

Georgia Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday

Ga. Dem. Results:Obama 66%Clinton 31%

Ga. GOP Results:Huckabee 34%McCain 32%Romney 30%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

BarackObama51.8%

HillaryClinton48.2%

MittRomney

35%

JohnMcCain

40%

Mike Huckabee25%

National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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25-J

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Med

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National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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25-J

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27-J

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28-J

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Med

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0

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24-Ja

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1-Feb

2-Feb

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4-Feb

5-Feb

Med

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney

Missouri Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday

Mo. Dem. Results:Obama 49%Clinton 48%

Mo. GOP Results:McCain 33%Huckabee 32%Romney 29%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

BarackObama51.1%

HillaryClinton48.9%

MittRomney

32%

JohnMcCain

49%

Mike Huckabee19%

National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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25-J

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Med

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National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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Med

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0

2,000

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24-Ja

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29-Ja

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30-Ja

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31-Ja

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1-Feb

2-Feb

3-Feb

4-Feb

5-Feb

Med

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tho

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ds)

Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney

New Jersey Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday

N.J. Dem. Results:Clinton 54%Obama 44%

N.J. GOP Results:McCain 55%Romney 28%Huckabee 8%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

HillaryClinton51.6%

BarackObama48.4%

MittRomney

34%

JohnMcCain

55%

Mike Huckabee11%

National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

an

25-J

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26-J

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27-J

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28-J

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Med

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National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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Med

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0

2,000

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Med

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney

Tennessee Media Signal14 days before Super Tuesday

Tenn. Dem. Results:Clinton 54%Obama 41%

Tenn. GOP Results:Huckabee 34%McCain 32%Romney 24%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

HillaryClinton56.1%

BarackObama43.9%

MittRomney

35%

JohnMcCain

46%

Mike Huckabee19%

National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

24-J

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25-J

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1-Feb

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Med

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney

Pre-Chesapeake Tuesday

National Media SignalJanuary 28-February 9, 2008

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

National Baseline

HillaryClinton49.0%Barack

Obama51.0%

JohnMcCain

73%

MikeHuckabee

27%

0

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)

Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee

Kansas Media SignalJanuary 28-February 9, 2008

Kan. GOP Results:Huckabee 60%McCain 24%

GOP Share of Voice

National Baseline

JohnMcCain

72%

MikeHuckabee

28%

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

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Med

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tho

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ds)

John McCain Mike Huckabee

Louisiana Media SignalJanuary 28-February 9, 2008

La. Dem. Results:Obama 57%Clinton 36%

La. GOP Results:Huckabee 43%McCain 42%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

National Baseline

JohnMcCain

66%

MikeHuckabee

34%

HillaryClinton45.9%

BarackObama54.1%

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

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Med

ia S

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee

Nebraska Media SignalJanuary 28-February 9, 2008

Neb. Dem. Results:Clinton 54%Obama 41%

Dem Share of Voice

National Baseline

HillaryClinton45.9%

BarackObama54.1%

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton

Virginia Media SignalJanuary 28-February 9, 2008

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

National BaselineHillaryClinton49.8%Barack

Obama50.2%

JohnMcCain

71%

MikeHuckabee

29%

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

28-J

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29-J

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee

Washington State Media SignalJanuary 28-February 9, 2008

Wash. Dem. Results:Obama 68%Clinton 31%

Wash. GOP Results:McCain 26%Huckabee 24%

Dem Share of Voice

GOP Share of Voice

0

5

10

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30

28-Ja

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Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain Mike Huckabee

National Baseline

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

28-J

an

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Med

ia S

igna

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milli

ons)

JohnMcCain

73%

MikeHuckabee

27%

HillaryClinton48.3%

BarackObama51.7%