Premiers’ Performance: Notley’s job approval tumbles as Alberta’s economy deteriorates

7/24/2019 Premiers Performance: Notleys job approval tumbles as Albertas economy deteriorates

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For Immediate ReleaseCanadian Public Opinion Poll

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MEDIA CONTACT:Shachi Kurl, Executive Director: [email protected]@shachikurl

Premiers Performance: Notleys job approval

tumbles as Albertas economy deteriorates

Newfoundland and Labradors Dwight Ball enjoys post-election honeymoon

February 17, 2016A collapsing resource sector,

mounting job losses and a projected shrinking

economy are not only causing serious problems forreal people in once-booming Alberta, theyrealso

taking a toll on the approval ratings of its premier.

Since her landmark victory propelling the NDP to

government last spring,Albertans endorsement of

Rachel Notleysjob performance has as declined

steadily as the economic fortunes of the once-

powerhouse province.

The latest Angus Reid Institute (ARI) analysis of

quarterly survey results from more than 6,000Canadian adults shows Notleys job approval down

fully 12 points. In December, nearly half (45%) of

people living in Alberta thought she was doing a good

job. Today, one-third (33%) say the same. This represents a 20-point drop in approval since June of last

year.

And while Alberta has borne the brunt of the effect of plummeting oil prices on the national economy, the

mood has not soured towards provincial leadership in another resource-dependent province next door.

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall has the approval of the majority of people in his province (62%), a

rating that is statistically unchanged since last quarter. He remains the most-approved-of premier in the

country, seven weeks before a provincial election. (Granted, in the last year,Albertas unemployment rate

has grown three times as muchas Saskatchewans.)

Pre-election job approval reveals a very different story in Manitoba for Greg Selinger. After nearly 17

years in government (ten as finance minister, seven more as premier), Selinger faces an uphill battle

ahead of an April 19 vote in that province. His job performance is approved of by one-in-five Manitobans

(19%) close to his lowest approval rating of 17 per centin December 2014a time when he was facing

arevolt from within his own party ranks.

KEY FINDINGS

Highest Approval Ratings: Wall (SK) 62%,

Ball (NL) 60%, Couillard (QC) 36%

Lowest Approval Ratings: Selinger (MB)

19%, Wynne (ON) 27%, Clark (BC) 31%

The Angus Reid Institute analyzed the results ofan online survey of 6294 Canadian adults in arandomized and representative sample ofAngusReid Forumpanelists from February 210,2016. The data was donated by Vision Critical. Aprobability sample of this size carries a margin oferror of +/- 1.2%, 19 times out of 20. Detailed

tables and graphs are found at the end of thisrelease.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02i-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02i-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02i-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02i-eng.htmhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-revolt-5-ministers-resign-from-premier-greg-selinger-s-cabinet-1.2821632http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-revolt-5-ministers-resign-from-premier-greg-selinger-s-cabinet-1.2821632http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-revolt-5-ministers-resign-from-premier-greg-selinger-s-cabinet-1.2821632http://www.angusreidforum.com/http://www.angusreidforum.com/http://www.angusreidforum.com/http://www.angusreidforum.com/http://www.angusreidforum.com/http://www.angusreidforum.com/http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-revolt-5-ministers-resign-from-premier-greg-selinger-s-cabinet-1.2821632http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02i-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htmmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Rounding out the western provinces, BC Premier Christy Clarks approval rating is statistically unchanged

down three points from last quarter to 31 per cent. Clark has earned an approval rating in this range

(between 30% and 34%) on job performance from British Columbians since September of 2014.

Turning to the other side of the country, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Dwight Ball is enjoying his

post-election honeymoon. Fully 60 per cent of people in that province approve of the job the newly sworn-

in leader is doing. However, his counterparts in both Nova Scotia and New Brunswick may offer a

cautionary tale regarding the (usually) short life-spans of such adoration.

Nova Scotias Stephen McNeil who enjoyed the job performance approval of two-thirds of people (66%)

in his province after the first six months of his administration, now stands at almost half that number

(36%), down ten points since the last quarter as he faces criticism overchanges to Pharmacarethat

province and aninvestigation by the Nova Scotia Information and Privacy Commissionerinto the

premiers former chief of staff.

Premier Brian Gallant in New Brunswick has seen his sees his approval rating stabilize in the last quarter

at 33 per cent. This is statistically unchanged since December (34%). Similarly unchanged is Quebec

Premier Philippe Couillard. With the endorsement on job performance of 36 per cent of Quebecers, he

does not enjoy more or less approval than he did three months ago (35%).

Finally, approval of Kathleen Wynne declines to less than one-third (27%) this quarter. The Ontario

premiers job performance has not seen any positive momentum in the eyes of people there in fully six

quarters, orput another waysince she won re-election in June 2014.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.metronews.ca/news/halifax/2016/02/11/stephen-mcneil-says-province-wrong-in-pharamacare-changes.htmlhttp://www.metronews.ca/news/halifax/2016/02/11/stephen-mcneil-says-province-wrong-in-pharamacare-changes.htmlhttp://www.metronews.ca/news/halifax/2016/02/11/stephen-mcneil-says-province-wrong-in-pharamacare-changes.htmlhttp://globalnews.ca/news/2511206/report-on-premier-mcneils-former-chief-of-staff-to-be-released/http://globalnews.ca/news/2511206/report-on-premier-mcneils-former-chief-of-staff-to-be-released/http://globalnews.ca/news/2511206/report-on-premier-mcneils-former-chief-of-staff-to-be-released/http://globalnews.ca/news/2511206/report-on-premier-mcneils-former-chief-of-staff-to-be-released/http://www.metronews.ca/news/halifax/2016/02/11/stephen-mcneil-says-province-wrong-in-pharamacare-changes.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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The Ang us Reid Insti tute (ARI)was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. AngusReid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research organization established toadvance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible andimpartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public

administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance toCanada and its world.

Detailed graphs and tables are on the following pages. Note: There are no trendline graphs forpremiers who are relatively new to office.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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*Because its small population precludes drawing discreet samples over multiple waves, data onPrince Edward Island is not released.

31%34%

32%30%

33%32%

38%

44%

25%

28%

33%

42%

Feb-16Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15Mar-15Sep-14Mar-14Sep-13Mar-13Aug-12Mar-12Aug-11

Approva

l

British Columbia Premier Christy Clark (Liberal)

33%

45%

50%53%

Feb-16Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15

Approval

Rachel Notley (NDP)


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62%60%63%61%

64%65%67%66%67%66%67%

71%

63%59%

63%60%

Approval

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall (Saskatchewan Party)

19%22%22%23%22%

17%

26%28%

31%

46%46%48%

Feb-16Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15Mar-15Dec-14Jun-14Dec-13Jun-13Dec-12May-12Mar-12

Approval

Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger (NDP)


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27%30%31%31%

36%39%

41%

33%36%35%

39%

43%

36%

Feb-16Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15Mar-15Dec-14Sep-14Jun-14Mar-14Dec-13Sep-13Jun-13Mar-13

Approval

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne (Liberal)

36%35%

41%39%

35%

41%

50%

59%

Feb-16Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15Mar-15Dec-14Sep-14Jun-14

Approval

Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard (Liberal)


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36%

46%

40%37%

43%

48%

53%

66%

59%57%

Feb-16Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15Mar-15Dec-14Sep-14Jun-14Mar-14Dec-13

Approval

Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil (Liberal)

33%34%

25%27%

40%40%

Februrary 2016Dec-15Aug-15Jun-15Mar-15Dec-14

Approval

New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant (Liberal)


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Provincial GovernmentsDo you approve or disapprove of the performance of each of the following Premiers?

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

Saskatchewan:Brad Wall (Saskatchewan Party)

N=105262% 33% 4%

Newfound land and Labrador:Dwight Ball (Liberal)

N=30360% 30% 11%

Qubec :Philippe Couillard (Liberal)

N=80836% 56% 8%

Nova Scotia:Stephen McNeil (Liberal)

N=30336% 55% 9%

Alberta:Rachel Notley (New Democratic Party)

N=80833% 56% 10%

New Brunswick :

Brian Gallant (Liberal)N=301

33% 56% 11%

Bri t ish Columbia:Christy Clark (Liberal)

N=80431% 61% 7%

Ontar io:Kathleen Wynne (Liberal)

N=100627% 64% 9%

Manitoba:Greg Selinger (New Democratic Party)

N=80919% 72% 10%


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*Dwight Ball became Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador in the November 30, 2015 election

Provincial GovernmentsDo you approve of the performance of each of the following Premiers?

Feb. 2016 Dec. 2015 Sept. 2015 June 2015

Saskatchewan:Brad Wall (Saskatchewan Party)

62% 60% 63% 61%

Newfound land and Labrador:Dwight Ball (Liberal)

60% N/A* N/A N/A

Qubec :Philippe Couillard (Liberal)

36% 35% 41% 39%

Nova Scotia:Stephen McNeil (Liberal)

36% 46% 40% 37%

Alberta:Rachel Notley (New Democratic Party)

33% 45% 50% 53%

New Brunswick :Brian Gallant (Liberal) 33% 34% 25% 27%

Bri t ish Columbia:Christy Clark (Liberal)

31% 34% 32% 30%

Ontar io:Kathleen Wynne (Liberal)

27% 30% 31% 31%

Manitoba:Greg Selinger (New Democratic Party)

19% 22% 22% 23%

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Premiers’ Performance: Notley’s job approval tumbles as Alberta’s economy deteriorates