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Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Premier Insight
5 November 2018
News & Analysis Corporates
BJBR: Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat (BJBR IJ; Rp1,800; Not Rated) will
offer its new 360.1mn shares (equivalent to 3.7% of paid-in-capital) at a
minimum of Rp1,900/shares with private placement scheme (non-HMETD) in the
4Q18 to West Java and Banten provincial government and this private placement
proceed amounts to Rp684bn that will be used for strengthening its capital to
expand its credit disbursement. This corporate action awaits for the shareholders’
approval on the upcoming EGMS scheduled on December 11th, 2018. (Investor
Daily).
PTPP: PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ; Rp1,390; Buy) targets revenue and
earnings growth of 15% and 10-12% respectively in FY18F. In the remaining
2018, there are several project which expected to boost PTPP performance,
namely Makassar New Port, Kalibaru, and Papua power plant with total contract
worth of Rp7tn. (Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: We continue to like PTPP as the company is the only SOE contractor
with positive new contract growth (+1% yoy) per 10M18. In addition, PTPP
earnings target were in-line with our earnings forecast for FY18F with 11%
growth. Maintain Buy on PTPP as one of our top picks in construction sector with
TP of Rp2,100.
Markets & Sector
Cigarettes sector: Government decided not to increase tobacco excise tax for
2019. This potentially disrupt the revenue from excise tax for next year as
Government previously has decided APBN 2019 tobacco excise tax for 2019F
increase 7.15% to Rp158.8tn (2018F: Rp148.2tn). Government also decided to
delay the simplification. With the current simplification, mid to low cigarettes will
remain to fight against bigger players. As of October 2018, Excise tax reached
Rp106tn (+9.8% yoy) where 95% coming from tobacco excise tax. (Kontan,
Bisnis Indonesia).
Comment: After the announcement last Friday, both HMSP and GGRM stock price
has rallied 4% and 6% respectively. We think this is a momentum for the
industry as we expect sales volumes are starting to recover. Maintain Buy for
both HMSP (TP: Rp4,200) and GGRM (TP: Rp84,000).
Plantation sector: Some industry experts including Dorab Mistry and Thomas
Mielke shared the same view that low palm oil price at MYR2,100 per ton will not
be sustainable as the current price level makes palm oil competitive and would
help producers to boost exports, allowing domestic inventory to decrease. Palm
oil prices are expected to improve next year as production growth will ease and
China shifts some of its vegetable oil demand to palm due to its trade dispute
with the United States, according to top industry analysts at Indonesia Palm Oil
Conference in Nusa Dua Bali. Palm oil price is expected to trade between
MYR2,200 to MYR2,600 per ton in 2019. (Reuters).
Comment: We maintain our positive view on plantation sector and reiterate our
Buy recommendation for AALI (TP: Rp14,000).
JCI Index
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
5,600
5,650
5,700
5,750
5,800
5,850
5,900
5,950
4-O
ct
5-O
ct
8-O
ct
9-O
ct
10-O
ct
11-O
ct
12-O
ct
15-O
ct
16-O
ct
17-O
ct
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov
Rp
bn
JC
I I
nd
ex
Foreign net buy (sell)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
18-O
ct
19-O
ct
22-O
ct
23-O
ct
24-O
ct
25-O
ct
26-O
ct
29-O
ct
30-O
ct
31-O
ct
1-N
ov
2-N
ov %
net b
uy
/m
ark
et
turn
over
Ne
t b
uy (
sell) i
n R
p b
n
Key Indexes
Index Closing 1 day 1 year YTD
JCI 5,906 1.2% -2.2% -7.1%
LQ45 942 1.7% -6.4% -12.8%
DJI 25,271 -0.4% 7.4% 2.2%
SET 1,682 0.9% -1.2% -4.1%
HSI 26,486 4.2% -7.4% -11.5%
NKY 22,244 2.6% -1.3% -3.6%
FTSE 7,094 -0.3% -6.2% -7.7%
FSSTI 3,116 1.8% -7.9% -8.4%
EIDO 23 0.2% -15.3% -19.6%
Commodity price
Commodities Last price Ret 1 day Ret 1 year
(in USD)
Oil/barrel (WTI) 63.1 -0.9% 13.5%
CPO/tonne 516.9 0.4% -23.7%
Soy/bushel 8.2 1.4% -14.0%
Rubber/kg 1.5 -1.1% -22.2%
Nickel/tonne 11,861 1.2% -5.6%
Tins/tonne 19,110 0.0% -3.4%
Copper/tonne 6,319 3.5% -8.4%
Gold/try.oz (Spot) 1,233 0.0% -2.9%
Coal/tonne 103.4 0.5% 3.2%
Corn/bushel 3.3 1.2% 2.2%
Wheat/bushel (USd) 508.8 0.1% 19.4%
Source : Bloomberg
Equity |
Indonesia
| R
esearc
h D
aily
PremierInsight
2 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
Poultry sector: Corn price would likely decrease as the government allowed
corn import quota of 100k tons despite sufficient corn production in Indonesia.
Imported corn will be supplied to several areas in Indonesia which have logistic
obstacles. Corn import is expected to reduce domestic corn price which reached
Rp4,500 per kg. (Detik).
Comment: This is positive for poultry counters as lower corn price would reduce
poultry feed costs and improve poultry feed sales volumes as farming activities
increase.
Property sector: Astra land built a JV with PT Hong Kong Land Ltd to develop
two apartment towers and one office tower in Gatot Subroto in 3.2ha area with
total gross development value of Rp4.1tn. For the first phase, Astra land will
launch a luxury apartment in 3Q19. Astra Land’s existing project, Arumaya has
sold 40% of its stock, while Anandamaya apartment has only 25 unit left. Going
forward Astra land will create a JV with land owner to develop future projects.
(Kontan).
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS BUY : Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD : Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL : Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst;s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS This reserch is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warraty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accruracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general
circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, finacial situation and the particular
needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.