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PRELIMINARY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2020 AND FEBRUARY 2021 SECTORAL REPORTS

ByNgaingonekue Uamburu

Manager, National Accounts31 March 2021, Gobabis

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Outline

1Economic Performance

Overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

4

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• Preliminary National Accounts 2020

• Sectoral reports for February 2021

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW

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Economic Performance Overview

1Economic Performance

Overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

4

Introduction

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• Namibia national accounts is compiled in line with SNA 2008 of the UN

• Annual accounts are published twice a year [Preliminary and Revised Annual national accounts]

• Sources are surveys and administrative data

• Results are presented in calendar year for 18 sectors of the economy

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Economic Performance Overview

1Economic Performance

Overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

4

Overall GDP growth rate

• Domestic economy slides into deeper decline

• Real GDP growth contracted by 8.0% in 2020 vs 0.6% in 2019

• RGDP stood at N$ 133.7 billion vs N$145.3 billion recorded in 2019. RGDP declined by

N$11.6 billion

• Nominal GDP stood at N$ 176.3 billion vs

N$ 181.6 billion in 2019. Nominal GDP

shrunk by N$ 5.2 billion

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6.1

4.3

0.0

-1.0

1.1

-0.6

-8.0

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-8.0

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-2.0

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6.0

8.0

10.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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Economic Performance Overview

1Economic Performance

Overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

• Poor performance across major sectors of

economy:

“Hotels and Restaurants” lead the pack with 33.1%

“Transport” registered 22.4%Manufacturing registered 19.6% “Mining and quarrying” recorded 14.9% Admin and support services recorded

14.5% Construction sector 11.8% “Wholesale and retail trade, repairs” and

Financial intermediation both recorded 11.7%

Key drivers to GDP growth

4

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-33.1

-22.4-19.6

-17.0-14.9-14.5

-11.8-11.7-11.7

-7.6-5.3

-3.2 -1.8

0.12.8

4.8 5.9

17.4 18.4

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Economic Performance overview

1Economic Performance

overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

Sectoral share to a decline of 8.0%

4

• Contributors to the decline of 8.0 %

Manufacturing sector contributed 2.5% pt.

Mining and Quarrying 1.2% pt.

Wholesale & Retail trade 1.1% pt.

Financial services 1.0% pt.

• Despite Hotels and Restaurants declining by 33.1%, it’s only contributing 0.7% pt.

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-2.5

-1.4-1.2

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0.00.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

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Economic Performance Overview

1Economic Performance

overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

Industries shares to GDP

4

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Primary industries,

19.1

Secondary industries,

16.5Tertiary

industries, 57.9

Other , 6.52020

Primary industries Secondary industries Tertiary industries Other

Primary industries,

16.5

Secondary industries,

17.9Tertiary

industries, 58.4

Other , 7.22019

Primary industries Secondary industries Tertiary industries Other

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Economic Performance Overview

1Economic Performance

Overview

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

Growth rates of industries

4

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• Secondary industries took a

deepest hit, 14.4% vs 1.7% in

2019.

• Primary industry 6.1% vs

6.9% in 2019.

• Tertiary industries 5.6% vs

1.2% in 2019.

0.1

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9.0

10

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-6.9 -6

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11

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-7.3

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1.7

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7.2 7.3

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1.2

-5.6

2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0

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Primary Industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry

PRIMARY INDUSTRIES OVERVIEW

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Primary Industries Overview

1Primary Industry

2

Primary Industry overview

3

Q3GDP

• Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector posted a positive growth in real value added of 5.9% vs a decline 3.2% recorded in 2019

Key drivers: Crop farming subsector 76.5% vs 32.0% in

2019 Due to good rainfall and bumper harvest.

Livestock subsector 10.2% vs 5.4% in 2019 Due to reduced animals marketed and restrictions

imposed to contain COVID-19.

Fishing subsector 9.4% vs 8.0% in 2019 Driven by the declines in fisheries landings:

DemersalMid-water

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

4

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Primary Industries overview

1 2

Primary Industry Overview

3

Q3GDP

• Mining and quarrying dropped to 14.9% in real value added vs a decline of 9.5%

Key drivers: Uranium subsector posted 8.5% vs 4.4%

Due to low demand of uranium and COVID-19 measures Other mining and quarrying subsector posted 17.6% vs 5.1% in

2019 Due to reduced production of marble, granite & salt

Metal ores subsector posted 20.8% vs 14.0% in 2019 Decline in gold , zinc and copper production Due to closure of one zinc mine and restriction measures of

COVID-19. Diamond mining subsector registered 14.9% vs 17.7% in 2019.

Reduced production due to low demand

Mining and quarrying

4

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SECONDARY INDUSTRIES OVERVIEW

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Secondary Industry Overview

1 2

Primary Industry

• Manufacturing sector decline by 19.6% in real value addedvs positive growth of 4.3% in 2019.

Key drivers: Basic non-ferrous metals subsector

Posted 46.8 % in real value added compared 1.4% in 2019

Reduced production of zinc processed, closure of mine

Beverages subsector Recorded 36.5% vs to 17.5% in 2019

Due to alcohol sales ban (prohibited)

Meat processing, subsector Recorded 40.8% vs 12.4% in 2019

Diamond processing Recorded 14.1% vs 7.1% in 2019

Manufacturing

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Secondary Industry Overview

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Secondary Industries overview

1 2

Primary Industry

Construction

• Construction posted downwards trends in real valueadded since 2016, registering 11.8% vs 5.5% in2019. Due to decline in government expenditure on civil

engineering works• Electricity and water sector posted 18.4% vs 5.9%

in 2019 Electricity subsector recorded 38.1% vs 10.9%

in 2019. Due to good rainfall in catchment areas.

Water subsector recorded 5.0% vs 1.4% Due to good rainfall leading to low demand of

water.

Construction and “Electricity and water”

43

Secondary Industry

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TERTIARY INDUSTRIES OVERVIEW

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Tertiary Industries Overview

1Primary Industry

2

Primary industry

3

Secondary Industry

• Hotels and restaurants sectors posted 33.1% vs 2.8% in 2019

Key drivers: Reduced demand for leisure, conferencing and

accommodation activities.

Restrictions on international travels

Hotels and restaurants sector Transport sector

• Transport sector recorded 22.4% vs 0.6% in 2019

Key drivers: Airport service subsector drop by 52.7%

Air transport posted 73.9 %

Due to travel restrictions, local and international

Due to outbreak of the pandemic

Freight transport by road subsector 19.7% vs 7.3%

Due to restrictions and weak demand for goods

4

Tertiary Industry Overview Pg-17

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Tertiary Industries Overview

1Primary Industry

2

Primary industry

3

Secondary Industry

• Financial and insurance services activities’ sector 11.7% vs 12.4% in 2019.

Key drivers: Insurance service activities subsector 18.5% vs

23.6% Reduced demand for long term insurance policy as

cancelation increases due to reduced disposable income.

Financial services activities drop by 4.3% vs2.5% Reduced demand for loans and deposits by

households.

Financial and insurance services Wholesale and retail sector

• Wholesale and retail sector recorded 11.7% vs7.8 %

Key drivers: Weak demand was observed in Clothing, Furniture and

Vehicles .

Due to reduced disposable income.

4

Tertiary Industry Overview

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Tertiary Industries Overview

1Primary Industry

2

Primary industry

3

Secondary Industry

• Information and communications sector recorded a strong growth of 17.4% vs 11.9% in 2019

Reflected in the number of minutes used. Growth in demand for data services and internet

connectivity.

Information and Communication sector Administrative and Support Services

• Administrative and support services sector contracted by 14.5% vs 5.6%

Key drivers: ‘Car rentals’ and ‘travel agents’ subsectors

activities declines 40.4% and 22.3% in 2019.

Due to reduced demand from international and domestic travellers

Due to limited movements of people.

4

Tertiary Industry Overview

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Tertiary Industries Overview

1Primary Industry

2

Primary industry

3

Secondary Industry

• Public administration and defense 1.8% vs 1.5% in 2019.

Increase in resignations and retirees relative to new recruits

• Education sector posted 0.1% vs 1.7% in 2019.

Slow growth witnessed in “primary and secondary education” subsector.

• Health sector posted 4.8% vs 1.5% in 2019

Increased health activities to combat the spread of the pandemic.

Public administration, Health and Education

4

Tertiary Industry Overview

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1

Revision NA

2

ANA 2018

3

Q3GDP

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Conclusion

The domestic economy was characterized by partial to full lockdown during in 2020.

Lockdown measures had a negative impact on the production of businesses.

Economy posted a contraction of 8.0% relative to a decline of 0.6% registered in 2019

Poor performance observed across major sectors except for “Electricity and water”, “Information and communications”, “Agriculture, forestry and fishing”, Health, Real estate activities and Education sectors which posted positive performances.

SECTORAL REPORTS

PG-16

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Background

• Short-term indicators that assist in monitoring business cycle

• Sectors covered on a month lag are;

– Electricity,

– Transport and,

– Beverages;

• Presented in a form of indices with reference period 2015 = 100

• Produced on a monthly basis

Beverage index

• The Index dropped,registering 50.4 percentm/m and 30.6 percent y/y.

• Non-alcoholic beverage for Feb-21: 34,239HL vs Jan-21: 192,910HL and Feb-20: 94,229HL.

• Alcoholic beverage Feb-21: 145,643HL vs Jan-21: 170,028HL and Feb20: 164,923HL

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2020 2021

m/m -14.3 16.5 -65.6 41.0 61.5 -5.1 -7.8 19.5 60.7 -11.7 25.3 -17.5 -50.4

y/y -13.0 -5.0 -70.7 -53.8 -14.0 -20.3 -35.8 -33.0 -2.6 -13.8 6.1 20.1 -30.6

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Electricity Sources index

• Index contracted by 5.9 percent and stoodat 13.8 percent.

• Annual decrease of 29.4 percent wasrecorded.

• This is mainly resulted from a decline of32.1 percent in own generation ofelectricity.

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2020 2021

m/m 2.6 20.7 -21.9 1.1 -9.5 3.4 0.5 -4.5 5.1 -5.9 5.1 -7.9 -13.8

y/y 16.1 33.9 15.8 2.3 -3.4 5.9 2.0 -4.1 -1.9 -3.8 2.1 -16.0 -29.4

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Electricity Sales index

• Index dropped by 7.7 percent and recorded adecline of 9.2 percent.

• Annually, 2.5 percent was recorded mainly dueto an increase of 2.9 percent in domestic salesof electricity.

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

2020 2021

m/m -9.6 29.7 -23. 2.2 4.4 3.6 2.0 -2.6 18.4 -9.0 -2.1 -1.5 -9.2

y/y -4.1 12.0 -6.9 -10. -0.6 -2.8 8.5 2.6 17.5 4.3 6.9 2.0 2.5

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Transport Index

• Measures index in tonnestransported via Rail, Road, Airand Sea Cargo.

• Index registered a negativegrowth of 5.0 percent m/mand 11.3 y/y.

• Namibia transported 948 107tonnes of cargo lower with49,717 tonnes transported inJanuary 2021.

• COVID-19 measures imposedin the country impacted onthe transport of goods.

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• Beverage, Electricity and the Transport sector indicators has showed a steep and downward trend on monthly basis.

• The COVID-19 pandemic effect on the economy is still prevailing within the second month of the year.

Conclusion

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THANK YOU!

1

Revision NA

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ANA 2018

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Q3GDP

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