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LookAhead Predictive Analytics

PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

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Page 1: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

LookAhead™PredictiveAnalytics

Page 2: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

Identify how adverse economic trends will affect your portfolio.

See shifts in credit quality beyond what is shown by a traditional score.

Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events.

Forecast future turning points in portfolio performance due to maturing loans.

LookAhead™, powered by Interthinx’s Predictive

Analytics, gives financial institutions control over

loss forecasting and stress testing, and provides a

repeatable and transparent process, accompanied

by support and training from experts.

Page 3: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

Transp

are

nt P

rocess

PredictiveAnalytics800.333.4510 [email protected] more information about LookAhead or other products, please contact: interthinx.com

LookAhead is configurable to

enhance business functions across

the organization

• LossandDelinquencyForecasting

• PortfolioStressTesting

• Collections&RecoveryForecasting

• MarketingandOriginationsPerformance

• ProfitabilityForecasting

• CreditCards

• AutoLoansandLeases

• Mortgages

• HomeEquityLoans and Lines

• PersonalLoans and Lines

• StudentLoans

• SmallBusiness Loans and Lines

LookAhead can be used for all retail

lending portfolios including:

Page 4: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

KEY BENEFITS

Traditional approaches incorporate variables that have driven performance in the past, but may miss new ones. In today’s dynamic global economy, the portfolio performance factors are no longer constant (e.g. housing prices became a key driver of performance during the most recent US mortgage crisis). Because the Dual-time Dynamics (DtD) approach does not presume to know all underlying variables affecting performance, the environment factors may expose new unexpected factors, resulting in better forecasts.

By utilizing multiple economic scenarios along with analyzing and de-composing past history, financial institutions can stress test and view a vast array of possible outcomes to better see how much of the profits and/or losses were contributed by each of the key performance drivers.

Robust and Flexible Scenario-based Forecasts

• Extensivereportingcapabilities.• Controloverforecastassumptionswiththeabilitytocreate,

calibrate and validate forecast models using your own data. • Enablesimportofmacroeconomics,futureoriginations

and campaign assumptions to generate customized forecasts.• UniqueDual-timeDynamicsallowsindependentanalysisof

keydriverssuchaslifecycle,environmentandcreditquality.• Provenandvalidatedmodelingapproachtestedovermore

than a decade of global economic change.

Real-time Results

Once data has been loaded and forecasting models have been created, LookAhead provides concurrent results with no lengthy implementation or model development.

• Enablesthecreationofauser-controlled,efficientanddefensible process for loss forecasting.

• Permitschangingmacroeconomicvariablesandscenarioassumptions along the process without model rebuilds.

...financial institutions can view a vast array of possible outcomes

PredictiveAnalytics

Page 5: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

Explainable and Transparent Forecasts

LookAhead’s internationally published forecasting methodology provides transparency for greater insight into detail, unlike black box ambiguity. Its modeling approach is clear and explainable, and has been validated by peers and regulators.

• Providesvaluableportfolioinsightsthatmay have been missed.

• Assuresanindependentmeasureofcredit qualityandenablesyoutoidentifyvintagesthat represent a higher or lower risk than were anticipated by your origination process. It also allows you to make changes accordingly and ensureseasyidentificationandadjustmentforone-time management events that may have affected historical trends, without carryover to future forecasts.

• Empowersyoutodemonstratetoseniormanagement scenarios under which your portfolio targets are achievable and realistic.

Expert Support

• Providesindustrybestpracticesconsulting and knowledge transfer.

• Experienced,in-houseanalyticsteam provides training, forecasting assistance, andquick-startportfolioforecastsatthe service level you choose.

• CustomerCareguidesyouthrough rapid software installation and deployment.

Benefi

ts + H

ow

It Work

s

800.333.4510 [email protected] more information about LookAhead or other products, please contact: interthinx.com

Page 6: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

KEY FEATURES

PredictiveAnalytics

Far more than simply a reporting tool, LookAhead is a mature, end-user software solution built specifically for scenario-based portfolio forecasting.

TheDtDapproachdecomposesandquantifieskey drivers of portfolio performance:

Account lifecycle – Maturation Curve

Economic environment and management actions accounts live through – Exogenous Curve

Vintage credit – Quality Curve

Vintage Analysis Decomposition

Proven through multiple global crises LookAhead leverages our patented Dual-Time Dynamics (DtD) technology.

Maturation

Months-on-Books

Account

Flo

w T

hro

ugh

60

-89

DP

D R

ate

Exogenous

Date

Rela

tive

Change

Quality

VintageR

ela

tive

Change

Page 7: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

800.333.4510 [email protected] more information about LookAhead or other products, please contact: interthinx.com

Using a powerful interface, LookAhead enables customers to:

• Generateexplainable,transparent and accurate forecasts.

• Forecastvalidation.• Goalseekfunctionality

solving for actions needed to achieve desired goals.

• Adjustformanagementevents.

• Inputmacroeconomicdata.

• CreateEconomic Response Models.

• Usedrag-and-dropfunctionality through a flexible pivot table.

• Useatableandplotview, with the ability to export data.

• Immediatelyaccessresults as data is entered and modelsareadjusted.

• Generateportfolio performance reports.

• Createscenariocomparisons.• Designscenariosforforecasts.• Correlateperformancewith

macroeconomic data. • Validateforecastsunder

many portfolio management and economic scenarios — all in one place.

HOW DOES IT WORK? LookAhead’s clear and explainable modeling approach has been validated by peers and regulators.

Page 8: PredictiveAnalytics LookAheaddnuhrpqyr91tn.cloudfront.net/files/PA_LA_041612_FNL.pdf · 2013-10-04 · Customize your forecasts based on your data, scenarios and management events

proven risk intelligence for lenders and investors 800.333.4510 interthinx.com [email protected]

©2012. All rights reserved. Interthinx is a registered trademark ofVeriskAnalytics.LookAheadandTrueCapitalaretrademarksofInterthinx,Inc.,FraudGUARD,ValueGUARD,ClearValue,PredProtectareregisteredtrademarksofInterthinx,Inc.

ProvenMortgage Fraud Mitigation & Verification Services

FraudGUARD®

SafeCheckSSN Direct4506-T

ExpertCollateral Risk & Valuation Solutions

ValueGUARD®

Interthinx Review Appraisal ServicesClear Value® AVMiAVM Plus

ReliableRegulatory Compliance

PredProtect®

TPRRegs DataCivil/Criminal Background Checks

AuthenticLoan ReviewSolutions

Repurchase ReviewsMI RescissionQuality ControlCollateral Value ReviewTPO ReviewCompliance ReviewFraud Investigation

VisionaryPredictive Analytics

MBS & ABS Forecasting Mortgage Loan Assessment ABS ForecastingLookAhead™

Portfolio Forecasting TrueCapital™

Capital Planning

Interthinx End-to-End Risk Mitigation As the largest aggregator of mortgage application data and the most comprehensive proprietary database, Interthinx provides proven end-to-end risk mitigation tools and a leading team of experts in mortgage fraud, collateral risk, regulatory compliance, loss forecasting and audit services.