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A SELECT INTERNATIONAL COMPANYwww.sv-europe.com
JarlathQuinn– AnalyticsConsultant
RachelClinton– BusinessDevelopment
Predictive Analytics in an hour: a no-nonsense quick guide
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FAQ’s
• Isthissessionbeingrecorded?Yes
• CanIgetacopyoftheslides?Yes,we’llemailaPDFcopyto
youafterthesessionhasended.
• Canwearrangeare-runforcolleagues?Yes,justaskus.
• HowcanIaskquestions?Alllinesaremutedsopleaseusethe
chatfacility– ifwerunoutoftimewewillfollowupwithyou.
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• PremieraccreditedpartnertoIBMandPredictive
Solutionsspecialisinginadvancedanalytics&big
datatechnologies
• Workwithopensourcetechnologies(R,Python,
Sparketc.)
• Teameachhas15to25yearsofexperienceworking
intheadvancedandpredictiveanalyticsindustry
• Deepexperienceofappliedadvanced
analyticsapplicationsacrosssectors– Retail– Gaming– Utilities– Insurance– Telecommunications– Media– FMCG
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What do we mean by ‘Predictive Analytics’?
“Predictiveanalytics encompassesavarietyofstatisticaltechniques
from datamining, predictivemodelling,andmachinelearning,that
analyze currentandhistoricalfactstomakepredictionsabout
futureorotherwiseunknownevents.”
Analysisofstructuredandunstructuredinformationwithmining,
predictivemodeling,and'what-if?'scenarioanalysis.
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What do we mean by ‘Predictive Analytics’?
• It’sdifferentfromBusinessIntelligenceorMIreporting• Actually,it’snotalways aboutprediction• However,PredictiveAnalyticsdoes createsimportantnewdata• Thesedatataketheformofestimates,probabilities,forecasts,
recommendations,propensityscores,classificationsorlikelihoodvalues• Whichinturncanbeincorporatedintokeyoperationaland/orinsight
systems
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Interest in Analytics
GoogleTrends
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Interest in Analytics
GoogleTrends
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Interest in Analytics
GoogleTrends
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grow
risk
fraud
attract
retain
Core Predictive Analytics Applications
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Typical Application Aims
Grow Defend
MarketShare
Profit
AcquireMoreCustomers
BuildaReputableBrand
AnticipateDemand
MaximiseSatisfaction
LowerCostofAcquisition
CrossSell
UpSell
MaximiseLifetimeValue
MaximiseLoyalty
AddressPoorSatisfaction
LowerChurnRates
ReactivatePassiveCustomers
MinimiseDefaults
PreventFraud
PreventWaste
MaintainAvailability
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At the heart of Predictive Analytics is the model
• PredictiveAnalyticsuseshistoricaldatafrommanypeople/incidents
• Age,Gender, AverageSpend,ProductCategory,Region,Tenureetc.
• Withknownoutcomes/results
• Responded, upgraded,defaulted, recommended, cancelled,donated, failed,renewedetc.
• Tobuildareusablemodel
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At the heart of Predictive Analytics is the model
• Theresultantmodel isapatternorformula thatcanbeexaminedandtested
• Moreover, itcanbetreatedasa
physicalobject
• Oranimportantassetthatcanbe
deployed inawidevarietyofways
beforebeingarchived
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At the heart of Predictive Analytics is the model• Wecantakenewdatafrom individualsorincidents…
• Age,gender, averagespend, sentiment, tenure, timesincelastvisit
• Usingamodelbasedonthesameinformation…
• Generateprobabilityvalues,likelihood scoresandestimates
• Inotherwords…..predictions
32% CHANCE OF CANCELLATION
0.13 probabilityof defaulting
Estimated NPS = 6
Predicted Lifetime Value = £938
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At the heart of Predictive Analytics is the model
• Wecanthendeploy thepredictions throughmultiplechannelsto
makebetterdecisions
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Let’slookatanexample…
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What do we offer Anna?• 31yearsold• Estimatedincome>£28K• Onaveragespends£26• Usuallypayswithcreditcard• Noteligible fordiscountoffer• Inthelast6weeksbought theseitems-
Whatisthenextmostrelevantproducttoofferher?
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By utilising a powerful, proven methodology
• CRISP-DM:Cross-IndustryStandardProcessforDataMining
• Eachapplicationcanbedevelopedandprogressedthroughaseriesofkeyphases
• http://crisp-dm.eu/
How do our clients maximise success?
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Transaction DataCom
petit
ive ad
vant
age
Degree of intelligence
By exploiting a wide data landscape
Descriptive Data
Interaction Data
Social Media Data
How do our clients maximise success?
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By integrating the resultant insight with existing systems
How do our clients maximise success?
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Common Misunderstandings
• Yourdataarenotuptoit
• You’llneedaPh.D.
• Itsveryexpensive
• Itsallaboutalgorithms
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Advice to get started
• BuildInternalCredibility:Think aboutwhereyouwouldgetbiggestimpactfortheleasteffort.
• Consideradoptingaprovenmethodology e.g.CRISP-DM(www.CRISP-DM.eu)• Don’tgethunguponmodelling techniques - focusonBusinessUnderstandingand
Deployment• Consider thefulldatalandscape• Consider thesortsofrolesinvolved/impacted• Consider integrationwithotherbusiness insightsystems(e.g.MI/BI)• Howwillyouknowitsworked?Focusonmeasuring thebenefit– e.g.response
ratelift, increasedcross-sell,revenue/profit impact• ChecktheSmartVisionEuropewebsite- sv-europe.com
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Working with Smart Vision Europe Ltd.
• SourcingSoftware– Youcanbuyyouranalyticalsoftwarefromusoftenwithdiscounts– Assistwithselection,pilot,implementation &support ofanalyticaltools– http://www.sv-europe.com/buy-spss-online/
• TrainingandConsultingServices– Guidedconsulting&trainingtodevelopinhouseskills– Deliveryofclassroomtrainingcourses/sidebysidetrainingsupport– Identification&recruitmentofanalyticalskillsintoyourorganisation
• AdviceandSupport– offer‘nostringsattached’technicalandbusinessadvicerelatingtoanalytical
activities– Technicalsupport services
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Thankyou
Contactus:
+44(0)[email protected]:@sveuropeFollowusonLinkedInSignupforourNewsletter
