Predictive Analytics: How to Effectively Measure and ......FICO holds 185+ patents in analytics and decision management technology, with an additional 90+ patents pending Automated

© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 1© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.

This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent.

Predictive Analytics: How to Effectively Measure and Improve Fleet Driving Risk

Rachel BellVice President, Scores and AnalyticsFICO

Jim NobleDirector, Insurance and Commercial Fleet ServiceseDriving

© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 2© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 2

Despite advancements in safety technology, road fatalities are on the

rise and results continue to deteriorate.

Society has becomedesensitizedto the problem.

© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 4

Adaptive control systems for managing credit card accounts

Cross-bureau FICO®

credit scores

Neural network-based fraud solutions

Small business scoring systems

Cardholder profiling for fraud

1990s

Credit line optimizationsolutions

Predictive systems for

insurance fraud

Analytic systems for retailers to optimize

offers

Adaptive analytics for fraud

Credit capacity scores

2000s

Cloud-based decision management platform

World’s fastest optimization solver

Self-calibratinganalytics for fraud

Economically calibrated credit scores

Safe Driving Scores

2010s

FICO holds 185+ patents in analytics and decision management

technology, with an additional 90+ patents pending

Automated origination systems with analytics

Credit scoring

1950s–1970s

Insurance underwriting pricing/analytics

FICO® Score for credit lending

introduced

1980s


eDriving Pedigree

• Providing risk products to insurance carriers for 25 years

• Launched first on-line driver risk aggregation tools

• Established global footprint

• Released first successful integration with a leading commercial telematics insurance product

• Manage successful risk reduction programs for some of the biggest global customers

• Covers 35 to 40% of the world's commercial vehicles through our current insurance partners


We are THE global fleet risk management gurus.We change driver and manager behavior as we support the creation of a crash-free culture®.


Creating a Company-wide Crash Free Focus & Culture


Commercial Insurance Telematics Success?

D

N

LFE

C

KJ

I

O

A

B

H

G0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2


Why is commercial auto underperforming?

• The common factor >94% of all auto losses

• What have we done to reduce this exposure?

© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 10 © 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.

Is Insurtech the Answer?

• Recent Results

• What’s missing?


Risk vs. Pricing


It’s about...

Missions• Culture• Assessment• Data• Targeted Risk Reduction• Benchmarking

Policy

Leadership

Manager Engagement

Risk Assessment

Driver Engagement

Measurement of Progress

Interventions Fleet Safety

Performance Measurement

Developing a Company Wide Crash Free Focus & Culture


Driver PortalRank Ordering of Drivers

Coaching Tools

ManagerToolkit

Outputs

Predictive Models - Scoring

Aggregated Data + Scoring

FICO® Safe DrivingScore

Risk Assessment Outcomes

In Vehicle Intelligence

with Distraction Detection

CollisionData

Incident Data

MVR/License Checks

Inputs


Leveraging Telematics for Predictive Modeling


Predictive Analytics Simplifies Data to Amplify Value


CO

NT

EX

T

Frequency

Duration

Severity

Acceleration

Braking

Cornering

Distraction

Speeding

Driving Behaviors Captured through Telematics


Predictive Analytics Simplifies Data to Amplify Value

Driving behaviorsare observed

Driver #2: Smooth Sally ?

?Driving outcomes

(e.g., collisions) are predicted

Driver #1: Reckless Rick


Segmenting Risk

GreatGoodAverageRisky Poor


• A predictive score that rank-orders drivers’ likelihood to be involved in future incident or collision.

• Based on driving behaviors as measured through smartphone sensors

• Acceleration, Braking, Cornering, Distraction, Speeding

• Validated using data from 2nd Strategic Highway Research Program*, a large driving study with 3,500+ participants

and nearly 32 million miles of driving data.

• Corroborated high importance of Acceleration and Braking variables.

• Amplified contribution of Cornering variables.

• Overall, improved collision prediction by 18%.

• Drivers with low scores have a much higher crash involvement rate

than drivers with high scores.

FICO® Safe Driving Score

FICO® Safe Driving Score

Low High

https://insight.shrp2nds.us/*

https://insight.shrp2nds.us/


Engaging the Driver


Success Evolved.Mentor by eDriving with FICO® Safe Driving Scores


MentorDashboard

Benchmark Scores

Individual FICO® Safe Driving Score

Total Miles/Kms., Hours & Trips

Mentor Behaviors – A, B, C, D, S

Coaching Playlist –Modules To DO

Circle Teams –Business & Private

Last Trip Overview, Feedback, FNOL

Mentor Menus, Privacy, Trends

Mentor by eDriving with FICO® Safe Driving Score


Training – Risk Reduction


• Interactive ‘live video’ training

• Contextual, relevant, highly engaging micro training modules

(3-15 mins) help drivers practice making decisions in real-life

scenarios

• Core training –prescribed to ALL drivers to provide solid

foundation and/or refresher

• Targeted training – assigned to individual drivers to address

specific risk patterns

Training modules are taken in-app on a smartphone or tablet – anywhere, anytime.

Driver Training


High Impact – Micro Learning


Case Study Results


CASE STUDY: Pilot Program Results

• Pilot group chosen based on leadership engagement & need

• 3 Regions – 500+ Drivers – 6 Months

• Statistically significant CPMM reduction of 30% versus an increase in the non-pilot Regions

• Sustained CPMM reduction came when focus was put on on-time coaching completions and quality reviews/manager follow-up

27

Comparison of CPMM


CASE STUDY: 2019 North America Rollout

• Executive Safety Leadership Council support for expansion

• Focus on US and Canada only; greatest risk & most drivers

• ~12,000 drivers

• 10 divisions

• In-person, hands-on manger training

• System & data

• Coaching process

• Coordinated rollout around already scheduled manager meetings to minimize expense & field productivity impact

28


CASE STUDY: Vehicle Accidents and Risky Driving Behaviors

Drivers with accidents had significantly more risky driving behaviors compared to drivers without accidents

29

Accident Recorded?


CASE STUDY: Speeding and Vehicle Accidents

Drivers with more speeding events are at higher risk for vehicle accidents

30

4.8%

5.6%6.2%

6.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

% o

f D

rive

rs w

ith

Ac

cid

en

ts

Distribution of Speeding Events

1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile


CASE STUDY: Vehicle Accidents and FICO® Safe Driving Score

31

Drivers with a FICO® Safe Driving Score of 710 or below were more likely to have an accident in the following months

0.9%

1.7%

2.5%

1.7%

2.8%

3.4%

0.0%

0.8%

1.6%

2.4%

3.2%

4.0%

Accident Next Month Accident in Next Two Months Accident in Next Three Months

% o

f E

mp

loye

es

Above 710 Below 710


CASE STUDY: CPMM Performance

32

Baseline After Deployment

CP

MM

© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 33© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 33

Engaging the driver is essential to changing their driving behavior and

improving the risk.

© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential. 34© 2019 Fair Isaac Corporation. Confidential.

This presentation is provided for the recipient only and cannot be reproduced or shared without Fair Isaac Corporation’s express consent.

Thank You

Jim [email protected]+1 (719) 466-1506

Rachel [email protected]+1 (415) 491-7055


WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018

https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2018/en/

https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2018/en/


NSC Motor Vehicle Fatality Trends

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/historical-fatality-trends/deaths-and-rates/


What are the numbers?

Source: https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115

https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812115


Acceleration Braking Cornering Distraction Speeding

• Collects & analyzes data for the most predictive driving

behaviors using the smartphone’s accelerometer and GPS

sensor

• Incorporates positive behaviors (smooth maneuvers), as

well as risky maneuvers –Acceleration, Braking, Cornering,

Distraction (Calls, Texting, Emailing, Handling), & Speeding.

• Reflects trip distance and duration

• 7-day rolling score

Mentor Behaviors


• FICO Trip/Event feedback• Where and when each event occurred• Duration of each event• Speed driven Vs speed limit of the road• Trip rating (FICO® Safe Driving Score)• Total number of events• Start & end locations• Distance traveled/time elapsed• Summary of last 30 Trips

• PRIVACY: Driver Managers/Administrators/

Employer can only see FICO® Safe Driving Score,

Mentor behavior sub-scores and event counts –

No Location/mapping data is shared.

Driver View/Trip Details

Documents

Predictive Analytics: How to Effectively Measure and ......FICO holds 185+ patents in analytics and decision management technology, with an additional 90+ patents pending Automated