Predictive Analytics Conference

Predictive Analytics Conference

Creating a Culture of Data Driven Decision Making

Elizabeth Crabtree Assistant Vice President for Strategy and Resource Development

Division of Advancement | Brown University

Welcome To Brown

Advancement at Brown

• Consists of Alumni Relations, Development, Strategy and Resource Development and Marketing and Communications.

• 200 FTEs

• $225 million annual fundraising revenues

• 23,000 volunteers

• 35,000 guests attending nearly 1,000 events

• 2,500 personal visits per year

The Big Picture

• Fundraising is becoming more challenging and more competitive

• Nonprofit funding needs are ever increasing

• Philanthropic behaviors and donor interests are diverse and complex

• Constituent engagement efforts are evolving, multi-channel, technology-driven and fast-paced

Management Challenges

• Internal and external environment

• Goal setting and attainment

• Benchmarks and performance metrics

• Resource allocations

– people, programs, technology, tools, budgets

– Investment, but also cost containment

• Fact and data-driven decision-making

– past, present and future (predictive)

Analytics and Modeling in Fundraising

• Relevant

• Timely

• Objective

• Creates Confidence

• Increases Effectiveness

• Improves Performance

Measuring Outcomes

• Data mining has been active in Advancement at Brown for nearly 15 years

• Campaign goals required fundraising revenues to grow three-fold

• Refocused data mining on prospect identification and donor segmentation

2004 – 2011

Boldly Brown: Campaign

for Academic

Enrichment

$1.6B raised

$200M avg.

1991 – 1996

Campaign for the

Rising Generation

$534M raised

$76M avg.

Historical Giving and Campaigns

New Gifts & Pledges ($ Millions)

Gee (1998–2000)

Simmons (2001–2012)

Gregorian (1989–1997)

$35

$55

$90

$65 $56

$135

$88

$76

$45

$64

$106 $114 $113

$91

$54

$181

$234

$204

$281

$224

$177

$126

$166

$188 $196

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Paxson (2013– )

Blumstein

Growth Rate Benchmark Comparisons

0% 1% 3% 4% 2% 5% 6% 7% 8%

All Private Higher

Education (1.5%)

Brown (4.2%)

10-Year Compound Annual Growth Rates three-year comparison periods of FY00-FY02 to FY10-FY12(1)

Top 10 Private

Research Universities

(3.6%)

Highest Private

Research University

(MIT at 6.4%)

Comparable to Stanford at 4.5%

Yale at 4.6% Columbia at 4.2%

(1) As compiled by Grenzebach Glier and Associates (2) Other comparison growth rates of note: Brown’s 10-year CAGR for FY04 – FY14 is 2.2% 40-year CAGR for Top 10 Private Research Universities is 7.7%

Brown Fundraising Growth Scenarios

LOW 1.5% growth FY12/13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Annual $147 $225 $228 $232 $235 $239 $242 $246 $250 $253

Cumulative $147 $372 $600 $832 $1,067 $1,306 $1,548 $1,794 $2,044 $2,298

MODERATE 3.6% growth FY12/13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Annual $147 $225 $233 $241 $250 $259 $269 $278 $288 $299

Cumulative $147 $372 $605 $846 $1,096 $1,355 $1,624 $1,902 $2,190 $2,489

HIGH 6.4% growth FY12/13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22

Annual $147 $225 $239 $255 $271 $288 $307 $326 $347 $370

Cumulative $147 $372 $611 $866 $1,137 $1,425 $1,732 $2,058 $2,405 $2,776

$ in millions

Top Donor Analysis (FY04 – FY14)

• A total of 511 donors made gifts of $500K or more during the last ten years, totaling $1.689B

• 358 of these donors have future major / principal gift potential, totaling approx. $1.5 billion

• 271 donors

• $1.2B potential

FY14-FY15

• 64 donors

•$256M potential

FY16-FY17

• 23 donors

• $123M potential FY18+

Line of Sight – Potential Solicitations of Top Donors During Next Five Years

$128.4

$471.6

$234.4

$857.0

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0

Donors of $500K+

$ in

mill

ion

$10M+ 31 donors $5M - $9.9M 38 donors $1M - $4.9M 246 donors $500K - $999K 196 donors

2014 –

Future Campaign

$265M avg.

$300M avg.

2004 – 2011

Boldly Brown: Campaign

for Academic

Enrichment

$1.6B raised

$200M avg.

1991 – 1996

Campaign for the

Rising Generation

$534M raised

$76M avg.

Historical Giving and Campaigns

New Gifts & Pledges ($ Millions)

Gee (1998–2000)

Simmons (2001–2012)

Gregorian (1989–1997)

$35

$55

$90

$65 $56

$135

$88

$76

$45

$64

$106 $114 $113

$91

$54

$181

$234

$204

$281

$224

$177

$126

$166

$188 $196

$225

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Paxson (2013– )

* Estimated moderate 3.6% compound annual growth and high 6.4% compound annual growth rate.

Blumstein

BROWN UNIVERSITY

CONSTITUENT DEMOGRAPHICS AND MARKET ANALYSIS

A D V A N C E M E N T D I V I S I O N

MAY 2014

PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 O

VER

VIEW

Key Constituents

The Brown University Advancement Division is focused upon fundraising and engagement activities for over 100,000 living alumni and 7,000 non-alumni current parents, as well as developing strategic partnerships and leveraging opportunities with corporations, foundations and global philanthropists who have interest in supporting Brown’s student, academic and research initiatives. Brown’s alumni and parent population is spread around the globe, with high concentrations along the east coast of the United States, particularly in the New England (21%) and New York Metropolitan (24%) regions, as well as California and the Pacific west coast (15%), and in countries throughout North and Latin America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Alumni Distribution by Degree

Alumni and Parent Geographic Distribution

80,098

16,520

3,529

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Medical Alumni

Graduate Alumni

Undergraduate Alumni

New York Metro 24%

New England 21%

Pacific 15%

Mid-Atlantic 11%

Midwest 8%

International 8%

Southeast 7%

Western 6%

PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 O

VER

VIEW

Constituent Concentration by U.S. Census Division (Alumni and Parents)

PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 P

RO

SPEC

TS Domestic U.S. Prospects – Major Markets

17

As of 1-30-2014

PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 U

ND

ERG

RA

DU

ATE A

LUM

NI

Undergraduate Alumni By Decade

By 2015, nearly one-third (25,000) of undergraduate alumni will have graduated in the last fifteen years (since 2000). More than half of these alumni will be under age 50. Since the 1980s, female graduates outnumber male graduates by 6% or 1,539. With life expectancies for women greater than that of men, the representation of alumnae will become even greater over time. (1)

By 2019, the undergraduate alumni base is estimated to be nearly 90,000 individuals, an increase of 10% or more. These alumni will also be increasingly diverse –geographically, socio-economically and professionally – and will be represented by more women than men. (2)

2,144

5,377

7,428

11,176

14,226 14,967 15,543 16,159

Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s*

Alumni Distribution by Decade Alumni Distribution by Gender

1,441 3,824 5,289

7,100 7,220 7,403 7,140 7,650

703

1,553 2,139

4,076 7,006 7,564 8,403 8,509

Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s*

Male Female

Pre-1970s 16%

1970s 13%

1980s 16% 1990s

18%

2000s 18%

2010s 19%

Projected Alumni Distribution by 2019 *

* Estimated (1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. Government. (2) Estimate based on admissions data, graduation rates and expected undergraduate class size growth of 1% annually.

PRELIMINARY DRAFT May 14, 2014 P

RO

SPEC

TS Undergraduate Alumni Prospects By Decade Currently, the largest group of undergraduate alumni prospects are from the classes of the 1980s. The majority of alumni prospects (57%) are from the decades of the 1980s and 1990s. 10% of the 1980s alumni are considered to have major or principal gift potential ($100K+ gift capacity). This is compared to 6% of alumni for all classes prior to 1980. Peak earning years: ages 45–54 followed closely by ages 35–44 (1) • In 2014 represents classes of 1982 – 2001 • In 2024 represents classes of 1992 – 2012 Opportunities for further research and engagement of alumni prospects from the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s should be considered. It is expected that another 1,000+ prospects could be identified from these classes.

32 214 378

906

1,447

804

142

Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Undergraduate Alumni Prospects by Decade Alumni Prospect Distribution by Capacity

28 166 290

760

1,217

691

121 4 48

88

146

230

113

21

Pre-1950 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Major Gift Prospects ($100K - $999K) Top Prospects ($1M+)

Pre-1970s 16%

1970s 23%

1980s 37%

1990s 20%

2000s 4%

Prospect Distribution by Class Year

(1) © 2014 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. Sourced from U.S. Census Bureau real (inflation-adjusted) series chained in 2012 dollars based on a research variant of the Consumer Price Index.

Projected Growth Over Next Five Years ~ 1,000+ new prospects

How Have Brown Alumni Adopted LinkedIn?

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

*Represents Brown alumni records “matched” with LinkedIn records.

% of members across the gift

pyramid

Adoption of LinkedIn by Rated Prospects

$1m - $24.9m

$50k - $1m

$25k - $50k

<$25k

A

34.8%

B - 42.9%

C – 55.2%

D – 59.1%

E – 63.8%

F – 62.1%

G – 61.0%

H – 54.4%

I – 46.1%

LinkedIn Members Gave at a 70% Higher Rate

than Non-Members*…

*Represents giving by all constituents in FY ‘13

Top 10 LinkedIn Industries by Median Gift

$- $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Pharmaceuticals

Financial Services

Real Estate

Philanthropy

Retail

Telecommunications

Consumer Goods

Investment Management

Investment Banking

Venture Capital & Private Equity

*Represents giving by all constituents in FY ‘13

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

How Many Alumni Engage With Our Facebook Content?

*“Engagement” defined as “liking or commenting on BAA or PAUR Facebook post

Which Alumni Are Most Engaged

With BAA Facebook Content?

*“Engagement” defined as “liking or commenting on BAA Facebook post

More Likes = More Participation

39.6%

50.4%

54.6%

61.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

0 1 2-9 10+

*EverTrue analysis of Facebook giving trends

The Road Ahead

• Learn the basics, build upon skills

• Understand the sell-in phase

• Impact takes times

• Challenges exist

– Access to data

– Selection of tools

– Time

Conclusions

• Effective data analytics, modeling and research in fundraising: – Increases number and quality of prospects

– Increases levels of giving

– Increases engagement efforts

– Improves donor acquisition

– Improves fundraising program performance

– Identifies opportunities and leverage resources

– Informs decision-making via data analysis

– Secures availability of resources (staff and budget)

Predictive Analytics Conference