Predictioneering in Economics (Issue X pp.32-35)

VOX - The STudenT JOurnal Of POliTicS, ecOnOmicS and PhilOSOPhy iSSue X - auTumn 2009

32

men in positions of power need to act. they act by necessity, for inac-tion counts as action. put more con-cretely, lack of change in behaviour, where persons in businesses, banks or the government are concerned, may appear to be a deliberate reac-tion to a crisis and a resolve to doing nothing else to deal with it save for

‘more of the same’. but those who need to act or refrain from acting may need advice, consultation, de-bate, with subordinates or colleagues in order to inform their decisions, or inform others about their decisions. hence, some of the discussions and the effort expended by economists in analysing what has been going wrong

PrEDiCtionEErinG in EConomiCS By Ilaf Scheikh Elard


33

with the economy and how to get out of the impasse may very well be in or-der. at the same time, economists can eas-ily become a nuisance for their ‘mas-ters’ – in the same way as priests advis-ing generals in war. they themselves may need informing of what is go-ing on. there may well be a ‘positive danger’, to paraphrase hayek, if these lofty ‘servants’ of the real decision-makers stop being curious or creative and, most importantly, cease to be critical of their own views, thinking, in the thick of it all, that their advice is not something inevitably ‘subjective’. why else did lord keynes observe that there are as many economists as there are facets of anything public? however, many economists, or priests for that matter, wish to see themselves as strict spokespersons for something objective, even divine, instead of as what they are: self-appointed delegates of the golden bough, the ‘rainbow’ and whatever lies (or ‘does not lie’) be-yond. voX Journal is presumably not in the business of advising ‘men in positions of power’, and this article is there-fore in safe waters. the author can be free to indulge in a bit of analysis, in a purely subjective way, of some of those ‘objective’ discussions tak-ing place all over the shop about the so-called ‘future of economics’ or the ‘economics of the future’ without be-ing hesitant about making any policy recommendations or giving any advice

as to what in any case would be a pre-mature account of the genesis of the crisis. the labour thereof will be left to the historians.


34

Contemporaneous thought, that is thought busy with the ‘moment’, the here and now, has it on the authority of none but public sentiments that when one talks about economics one can only mean something yet to occur - some predictions about the economy outside the timeframe of the subject concerned. however, most of the pre-diction is no more than predication, where the horse is put before the cart now, and then after, often just beside the point laboured by either. one is re-minded of that old, professional guru of thought-abuse, Francis bacon, the forgotten father of modern sagac-ity. he writes that “prophecies, being infinite in number, have been impos-tures” and goes on to say, “and by idle and crafty brains, [they are] merely contrived and feigned only after the event past.” [(bacon, F. (19�2) Francis bacon’s essays (dutton: london), p. 112].ironically, this baconian view on prophecies forces one’s mind to focus on the present. the resultant ‘proph-esising’ taking place today with a view of what is to become tomorrow may not be totally free of mixing tenses even when it is free of mixing meta-phors. it is, therefore, pertaining to the future of the economic crisis, however defined, and specifically to possible ways of getting out of it, that the liq-uid in the pot must satisfy. it is a moot point that ‘what is’ relates little to what ‘ought to be’. this is however not so

in economics. The shouting is muffled and must be reserved to the day when a better code of intellectual conduct comes to pass in order to ensure that the social theology, parading as the ‘science’ of economics, is confined to certain pulpits instead of being on the loose.the main divide in answering the moot, as commonly portrayed, is broadly between two shouters: the keynesians of latter day saints, and neo-Classicists of the recent round-heads. the former, who have little in common with the original inspiration of J. m. keynes, propose a return to what they call ‘government interven-tion’ and ‘government regulation’, even ‘fiscal easing’ in the hope of bridging the so-called output gap and thereby ‘kick start’ the dead engine of the rolls royce economy in the same manner as repeated generations of prime min-isters and ministers of the Crown at-tempt to kick start the life of the ducks in st. James’ park: the Commonwealth, the pluralist society, the way Forward. across the vast water to the west it is the new deal and supply-side eco-nomics. in contrast to these dubbed keynes-ians, economists of the neo-Classical tradition, licking their wounds from being attacked for having become lame ducks, save their seven decade-long arduous science by pointing out inefficiency risks that might hamper the machine under the weight of huge


effects arising from the kick-starting process. to them, intervention may amount to nothing but meddling in ‘perfectly competitive’ carts that got stuck in the quagmire of the pond oth-erwise known as ‘finance capitalism’.away from these self-serving doctri-naires, much of the public discussion in the press has shifted elsewhere. after Greenspan declared ‘never in the field of human folly was so much claimed, by so many, for so little’ (presumably referring to economics), the lesser tug of war between the two wings of an-glo-saxon economics has shifted back to london. we witness the return, some would say the ‘return home’, of economic policy to the keynesian view. but this back and forth, reminis-cent of a dance where all act their part, over the practical answers to the ques-tion ‘what is to be done?’ can only be a reminder of the dire need for humil-ity in anything touching the world of theoretical economics.

___________________________Ilaf Scheikh Elard is an MPhil student reading Economics at Pembroke College, Oxford University

3�

The iaPSS conferenceis an international conference organised by the club of PeP under the auspices of the iaPSS (international association of Political Science Students - www.iapss.org).

Theme: local democracy for combating Poverty and Social exclusion

dates: 27th of September - 2nd of Octo-ber 2010

The conference will include an introduc-tory session with speakers from nGOs and the government, lectures by promi-nent academics (stay tuned to find out who they are), workshops and country case studies which will provide the basis for discussion of local democratic in-novations, and a plenary session where conclusions reached in the seminars will be discussed.

Participants are required to submit a paper dicussing local democratic innova-tions in their countries or analysing the topic on a moral theoretical/abstract level. academics will assess the submis-sions and the best ones will be presented during the conference.

call for participants will take place next term.

VOX The STudenT JOurnalOf POliTicS, ecOnOmicS and PhilOSOPhy

voxjournal.co.uk

call for PapersVOX Spring issue 2010

Theme: education

VOX - The Student Journal of Politics, economics and Philosophy - is calling for the submission of articles for the Spring Term issue 2010, which will be on the wide theme of “education” (see list below).

The article should be between 1000-1500 words. if you want to write, please let us know by emailing a short outline of your proposed article to [email protected] by 27 december 2009.

you might want to pick an article idea from the following list or suggest your own topic:

• a discussion on grade inflation• education and the role of the state• Should university be free?• education in the Solow model• can a fair society permit private schooling?• Punishment and education• exporting education• Practical vs. technical knowledge• education as a means or an end?• ___________ (your own article idea.)

note: undergraduates, graduates and academics from any degree programme are welcome to contribute.

Documents

Predictioneering in Economics (Issue X pp.32-35)