Prediction of Energy-mix in power production: Bangladesh Context 2030

INSTITUTE OF ENERGYUniversity of Dhaka

Mohammad Alimuzzamanbappy.ce.buet@gmail.com

Introduction

• Energy : Most important factors for better economic growth and people’s life in our country.

• Not equipped with sufficient energy resources in our land.

• Gradually rely on imported fuels.• Fossil energy: Increases Greenhouse Gas

emission, which accelerates global warming and causes climate change, and suffers our country by natural calamities.

Energy Demand: Present Scenario

Bangladesh:• 161 million people ,• 147,570 square kilometers of land• GDP growth of 7%/year up to 2020• In the past decade, primary energy

consumption increased over 100%

Energy Demand: Present Scenario

Energy Demand: Present Scenario

Trend of Consumption of Grid Electricity

Estimated Breakdown of Grid Electricty

Energy Demand: Present Scenario

Energy Supply :Present Scenario

• Three-quarters of energy supply depends on natural gas.

• Gas supply will reach its peak in 2018 and gradually decrease thereafter.

• Coals and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for power generations from after 2021 and 2022

• Nuclear and hydro power awaits negotiation with partner countries, and seems not able to start operation before 2030.

Trend of Source of Energy Supply

Energy Balance in Bangladesh

Primary energy supply : 33,172 ktoe.• 55% is dependent on domestic natural gas.• 27% of biomass & waste in rural area• 15% of imported oil. Demand side: out of 24,445 ktoe Fina consumption,• Industrial sector uses 24% • Residential sector (excluding biomass & waste)

15%, as a secondary energy basis.

Energy Balance in Bangladesh

Present Electricity Generation Fuel Mix

Electricity Supply Expansion Plan

Electricity Supply Expansion Plan

Electricity Supply Expansion Plan