“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.”

Washington StateEmployment Security Department

Labor Market and Economic Analysis

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.”

San Juan County and Orcas Island Census County Division Economic Review By: Reinhold Groepler, Ph.D., Regional EconomistDate: March 8, 2012

Washington StateEmployment Security DepartmentLabor Market and Economic Analysis



Overview of PresentationFrom the National Economy to the Local Economy

Sources: ESD/LMEA, BLS, CES

• Leading Economic Indicators and Indexeso How do they work?; What are they telling us about the national

economy?o What are they telling us about economic conditions in San Juan

County?• Industry Employment in San Juan County

o What are the shares of employment by industry?o What are the employment trends by industry?

• Commuting and Jobs in the Orcas Census County Division (San Juan County slides in appendix)



• What we care about in an economy:o Employment: Jobs generate income and consumption.o Income: This generates sales and employment.o Sales and Consumption: This creates jobs and income.

Leading Indicators 101Coincident Indicators

• These are called coincident economic indicators as they are most important. o These three indicators are statistically ‘hammered’

together into a coincident economic index (CEI).o The economy is growing when the CEI rises and can be in

recession if the CEI falls far enough.



Leading Indicators 101Coincident Indicators: Employment

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

San Juan County Private Nonfarm Employment, SA



Leading Indicators 101Coincident Indicators: Income

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000


San Juan County Total Wages, Inflation Adjusted (including Food and Energy), Quarterly Rates, SA



Leading Indicators 101Coincident Indicators: Sales & Consumption

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000

65,000,000


San Juan County Taxable Sales, Inflation Adjusted (ex Food and Energy), Quarterly Rates, SA



Leading Indicators 101Coincident Indicators

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200


San Juan County Coincident Index



Leading Indicators 101Leading Indicators and Business Cycles

• Leading indicators change direction before coincident indicators change.

• This helps economists to anticipate recessions and recoveries.

• A leading economic index (LEI) consists of statistically ‘hammering’ many different leading indicators together into one LEI to forecast future economic conditions.



Leading Indicators 101Stylized Business Cycles

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 26 51 76 101 126 151 176 201 226 251

Econ

omic

Acti

vity

Time in Weeks ----------->

Leading Economic Index (LEI) Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

CEI Peaks

CEI Starts Growing

LEI Peaks

LEI Starts GrowingLEI Falling

CEI Starts Falling



Leading Indicators 101Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits are

an important short-leading indicator.

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

San Juan County Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits, SA, 3Month SMA

As initial claims fall, that signals a pickup in jobs within 3-6 months.



Leading Indicators 101Discretionary spending: important short-leading indicator

10,000,000

11,000,000

12,000,000

13,000,000

14,000,000

15,000,000

16,000,000

17,000,000

18,000,000

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

San Juan Taxable Retail & Food Services Sales, ex Auto (Inflation Adjusted, less Food & Energy)



Leading Indicators 101National credit market conditions are important leading

indicators

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0


10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant Maturity minus Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield

The more negative the yield spread between ‘risk free’ US Treasuries and lower rated corporate debt, the more difficult it is for small businesses to get credit



Leading Indicators 101National credit market conditions are important leading

indicatorsAs the yield differential between longer term interest rates and shorter term

interest rates decreases, it is less profitable for banks to lend.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


Ten Year US Treasury Rate minus Federal Funds Rate

Federal Reserve Bank raises short-term interest rates.

Long-Term Interest Rates Fall



Leading Indicators in PracticeUS business cycles and the US long-leading index

Sources: LMEA; Underlying data sources from HAVER Analytics.

90

110

130

150

170

190

US Long-Leading Economic Index US Coincident Economic Index

Quarterly Data

Dec 2007

March 2006 Dec 2007

Sep 2009

Mar 2009



Industry EmploymentSan Juan County, December 2011

Job Change Percent Job Change PercentTotal Nonfarm 4,700 (80) -1.7% (90) -1.9%Total Private 3,740 (40) -1.1% (80) -2.1%

Goods Producing 800 0 0.0% (10) -1.2%Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction 620 (20) -3.1% 0 0.0%Manufacturing 180 20 12.5% (10) -5.3%

Service Providing (Total) 3,900 (80) -2.0% (80) -2.0%Service Providing (Private) 2,940 (40) -1.3% (70) -2.3%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 880 (20) -2.2% 0 0.0%Information and Financial Activities 250 0 0.0% (10) -3.8%Residual Private Services 1,810 (20) -1.1% (60) -3.2%

Government Service Providing 960 (40) -4.0% (10) -1.0%

San Juan County Employment by Place of Work Survey (Non-Seasonally Adjusted)

NAICS Industry Titles Dec-11 Year over Year Month over Month



Industry EmploymentArea Comparisons: December 2011

NAICS Industry Y/Y % M/M % Y/Y % M/M % Y/Y % M/M % Y/Y % M/M %Total Nonfarm 1/ 1.3% -0.2% 1.0% -0.8% 1.2% -0.5% -1.7% -1.9%Total Private 1.8% -0.1% 1.7% -0.6% 1.2% -1.1% -1.1% -2.1%Goods Producing 2.0% -1.2% 4.1% -1.3% 1.1% -2.2% 0.0% -1.2% Mining, Log. & Construct. 1.7% -0.2% -0.8% -4.2% -5.1% -4.4% -3.1% 0.0% Manufacturing 1.9% 0.1% 6.8% 0.3% 5.8% -0.7% 12.5% -5.3%Service Providing 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% -0.8% 1.3% -0.2% -2.0% -2.0% Private Service Providing 1.7% 0.1% 1.1% -0.5% 1.3% -0.8% -1.3% -2.3% Government -1.2% -0.6% -1.7% -1.8% 1.1% 1.5% -4.0% -1.0%

San Juan

Employment Growth Rate Comparison of Select Industry SectorsDecember 2011 Nonseasonally Adjusted Data for All Areas (Preliminary)

USA Washington NW Counties



Industry EmploymentSan Juan County: December 2011

51.9%

21.8%

15.6%

6.3% 4.4%

Residual Private Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction

Information and Financial Activities

Manufacturing

San Juan County Shares of Private Nonfarm Employment Average for last 12 Months

Industry Employment Share, REAccommodation and food services 981 44.1%Health care and social assistance 344 15.5%Other services, except public adm. 272 12.2%Administrative and waste services 197 8.9%Arts, entertainment, and recreation 153 6.9%Professional and technical services 140 6.3%Real estate and rental and leasing 86 3.9%Educational services 51 2.3%

Residual Employment (RE), Employment Shares

Industry Annual Wage Share REAccommodation and food services $18,712,583 35.6%Health care and social assistance $9,435,580 18.0%Other services, except public adm. $7,476,966 14.2%Professional and technical services $6,470,501 12.3%Administrative and waste services $4,741,181 9.0%Arts, entertainment, and recreation $2,622,892 5.0%Real estate and rental and leasing $1,570,404 3.0%Educational services $1,488,572 2.8%

Residual Employment (RE), Wage Shares



Industry Employment San Juan County: December 2011

-25%-15%-5%5%

15%25%35%45%55%65% Trade, Transportation,

and Utilities

Manufacturing

Residual Private Services

Natural Resources, Mining, and ConstructionInformation and Financial Activities

San Juan County Private Sector Employment Growth Index Based on 12-Month Rolling Simple Moving Average of Changes Since the Year 2000



‘Headline’ Unemployment Rates December 2011: U-3 rate

Area Dec-11 Nov-11 Dec-10USA (U-3) 8.3 8.2 9.1USA (U-6)* 15.3 15.7 15.9

Washington 8.6 8.3 9.2CD-2 (est.) 8.4 8.4 9.4NW WDA 8.8 7.9 8.8Whatcom 8.1 7.3 8.2

Skagit 10.2 9.1 10.1Island 8.8 8.0 8.7

San Juan 7.6 6.8 7.5Snohomish 8.2 8.7 9.8

*U-6 rate counts discouraged and other workers.

Table 1Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted)



Unemployment Rates Beyond The Headline Rate (U-3)

Period Area U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6 U6 - U5WA 5.4 5.9 10.2 10.7 11.7 18.4 6.7OR 6.7 7.8 11.0 11.6 12.5 20.0 7.5US 5.7 6.0 9.6 10.3 11.1 16.7 5.6ND 1.1 1.9 3.8 4.0 4.3 7.4 3.1WA 5.3 5.8 10.1 10.6 11.7 18.7 7.0OR 6.0 6.7 10.1 10.5 11.4 18.7 7.3US 5.4 5.6 9.3 9.9 10.7 16.3 5.6ND 1.1 1.6 3.8 4.0 4.4 7.2 2.8WA 5.4 5.6 9.8 10.2 11.5 18.5 7.0OR 5.6 6.2 9.7 10.1 11.2 17.9 6.7US 5.4 5.5 9.2 9.8 10.7 16.2 5.5ND 1.2 1.5 3.7 3.9 4.3 7.0 2.7

2010Q4-2010Q3

2010

2010Q3-2011Q2

Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization for States

The U6 minus U5 rate gives the percentage of the labor force involuntarily working part-time for economic reasons

(could not find a full-time job).



Long-Term UnemploymentAmong the Insured Unemployed

County or WDA

Regular Benefits1

Emergency UnemploymentCompensation2

Extended Benefits3

Training Benefits4

Total Claimants5

Exhaustees as of December

20116

27 Weeks Unemployed

or Longer

Share of Insured Unemployed 27

Weeks or Longer

27-Weeks or Longer as a percent of Labor

Force (Dec-11 LF) Whatcom 3,113 1,834 350 38 5,141 1,710 2,222 43.2% 2.1%Skagit 2,408 1,294 237 15 3,828 976 1,546 40.4% 2.7%Island 847 565 123 6 1,489 528 694 46.6% 2.2%San Juan 202 97 19 - 309 71 116 37.5% 1.6%WDA3 6,570 3,790 729 59 10,767 3,285 4,578 42.5% 2.3%Snohomish 10,513 8,014 1,661 99 19,549 8,575 9,774 50.0% 2.6%CD-2 (est) 17,083 11,804 2,390 158 30,316 11,860 14,352 47.3% 2.5%Statewide 115,673 71,438 14,439 823 195,721 69,928 86,700 44.3% 2.5%

Washington State Unemployment Insurance Benefit Entitlements by County, December 201127 Week or Longer UI Claimants

Persons unemployed 27 weeks or longer are considered the long-term unemployed• In San Juan County, that is a 37.5% share, which compares to:

• 40 percent for Skagit County• 47 percent for Island County• 50 percent in Snohomish County• 44 percent statewide.



How San Juan Industries Compare for With Washington State: Location Quotients

NAICS Code Industry11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 0.321 Mining NA22 Utilities 8.923 Construction 2.6

31-33 Manufacturing 0.442 Wholesale trade 0.3

44-45 Retail trade 1.248-49 Transportation and warehousing 0.7

51 Information 0.352 Finance and insurance 0.653 Real estate and rental and leasing 1.154 Professional and technical services 0.555 Management of companies and enterprises NA56 Administrative and waste services 0.861 Educational services 0.862 Health care and social assistance 0.671 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.972 Accommodation and food services 2.481 Other services, except public administration 1.1

GOVERNMENT 1.0Federal Government 0.6State Government 0.5Local Government 1.4

Location Quotients: San Juan County: Washington State

1) A location quotient tells us the relative importance of the number of employees in a local Industry compared to a state or the US.

2) For example, if a local location quotient for government were 1.0 that implies that the percentage of all employees working in government would be the same for the locality as well as the state.

3) Location quotients less than 1 mean the local industry has fewer employees in that industry on a percentage basis than the state.



Orcas Commute PatternsCombining ESD Employment Data on Jobs by Place of Work

with Federal Data on Place of Residence Yields Commuting Patterns

Patterns Estimated with Census OnTheMap Online Software: http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

2009 Orcas Commute Overview1,649 Workers Living in Orcas CCD1,450 Jobs in Orcas CCD345 Commuter Inflow1,105 Living & Employed in Orcas CCD544 Commuter Outflow199 Net Commuter Outflow

2009 Map Data



Orcas CCD Commute Patterns:Work Destinations of Orcas Workers

County of Employment Count ShareSan Juan County, WA 1097 72.9%King County, WA 112 7.3%Skagit County, WA 75 5.0%Whatcom County, WA 83 5.5%Snohomish County, WA 44 2.9%Pierce County, WA 13 0.9%Island County, WA 16 1.0%Thurston County, WA 10 0.7%Clallam County, WA 20 1.3%Jefferson County, WA 5 0.4%All Other Locations 35 2.3%

Where the 1,509 Orcas CCD Workers were Employed (2007-2009 Average)

2009 Map Data

Locality of Employment Count ShareSeattle city, WA 60 3.9%Bellingham city, WA 41 2.7%Anacortes city, WA 30 2.0%Friday Harbor town, WA 22 1.5%Mount Vernon city, WA 11 0.7%Bellevue city, WA 6 0.4%Marietta-Alderwood CDP, WA 6 0.3%Burlington city, WA 4 0.3%Port Townsend city, WA 2 0.1%Birch Bay CDP, WA 2 0.1%All Other Locations 1325 87.8%

Where the 1,509 Orcas CCD Workers were Employed (2007-2009 Average)



Orcas CCD Worker Industry Employment (Jobs held by residents, regardless of job location)

Jobs by NAICS Industry SectorIndustry Sector Count ShareRetail Trade 220 15.07%Accommodation and Food Services 208 14.60%Construction 181 12.67%Health Care and Social Assistance 129 8.53%Educational Services 127 8.53%Manufacturing 87 5.70%Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 68 4.63%Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 63 4.30%Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 56 3.73%Public Administration 49 3.37%Wholesale Trade 47 3.10%Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 41 2.80%Transportation and Warehousing 40 2.73%Finance and Insurance 34 2.27%Utilities 32 2.33%Information 29 2.00%Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 24 1.60%Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 20 1.33%Management of Companies and Enterprises 9 0.60%Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 0.03%Total 1466 100%

2007-2009 Average



Orcas CCD Worker Characteristics For the residents of Orcas (regardless of work location)


Labor Market and Economic AnalysisSource: Employment Security Department/LMEA/OnTheMap

Orcas CCD Work Commute PatternsNet Outflow: Industry Destinations

2524

18777

544

11100

0-2-2

-18-59

-66

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40

Public AdministrationTransportation and WarehousingWholesale TradeRetail TradeEducational ServicesFinance and InsuranceAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingManagement of Companies and EnterprisesHealth Care and Social AssistanceAdministration & Support, Waste Management and RemediationProfessional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesManufacturingReal Estate and Rental and LeasingArts, Entertainment, and RecreationMining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ExtractionInformationOther Services (excluding Public Administration)UtilitiesConstructionAccommodation and Food Services

Net Worker Outflow from Orcas CCD by Industry (2007-2009 Average)Blue Bars are Net Outflows and Red Bars are Net Inflows



• Useful LMI Links (including Orcas Island)• Deeper Look at the Unemployed (US)• WDA-3 Occupational Projections• San Juan County Commute/Jobs Patterns• Common Leading Indicators

Appendix Slides



Links to LMI From ESD and other WebsitesState & Local Links

Guide on how to find LMI on new ESD website (crosswalk from old website):https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/help/cross-walkNorthwest Washington Labor Market Review (4-County Region)http://nwboard.org/impact/laborareasummaries.htmlCounty Data Releases (AKA Labor Area Summaries)https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/eeis-tools/labor-area-summariesEmployment Projectionshttps://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/employment-projections Find Employershttps://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/find-employers Find Occupations (Use filters to narrow your search)https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/occupational-reports/occupations-in-demand LMI Numbers and Trends by Areahttps://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/regional-reports/numbers-and-trends Long Term Industry Trends by Areahttps://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/industry-trendsQuarterly Census of Employment and Wageshttps://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/quarterly-census-of-employment-and-wages

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/help/cross-walk

http://nwboard.org/impact/laborareasummaries.html

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/eeis-tools/labor-area-summaries

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/employment-projections

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/employment-projections

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/find-employers

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/occupational-reports/occupations-in-demand

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/occupational-reports/occupations-in-demand

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/regional-reports/numbers-and-trends

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/regional-reports/numbers-and-trends

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/industry-trends

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/industry-trends

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/quarterly-census-of-employment-and-wages

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/industry-reports/quarterly-census-of-employment-and-wages



Links to LMI From ESD and other WebsitesNational and Miscellaneous Links

BLS Employment Situation Report (First Friday of the Month, but February 2012 report on 3/9/12) http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdfOrcas Census County Division, “Complete Analysis” (plus Friday Harbor Town Link) http://www.citymelt.com/city/Washington/Orcas+Ccd-WA.html http://www.citymelt.com/city/Washington/Friday+Harbor+Town-WA.htmlUS Census On-The-Maphttp://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

http://www.citymelt.com/city/Washington/Orcas+Ccd-WA.html

http://www.citymelt.com/city/Washington/Friday+Harbor+Town-WA.html

http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/



SOC** TITLE

Avg. Annual Growth Rate 2009-

2014

Avg. Annual Growth Rate 2014-

2019

Avg. Annual Opening Due to

Growth 2009-2014

Avg. Annual Opening Due to

Growth 2014-2019

Avg. Annual Total Openings

2009-2014

Avg. Annual Total Openings

2014-2019

00-0000 Total, All Occupations 1.5% 1.6% 2,799 3,093 7,116 7,56813-0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations 1.5% 1.5% 84 86 176 20813-2000 Financial Specialists 1.8% 1.8% 41 45 73 8813-2011 Accountants and Auditors 2.2% 2.6% 24 31 40 5425-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 1.5% 1.6% 171 202 409 489

25-2000Primary, Secondary, and Special Education School Teachers 1.5% 1.6% 66 77 165 196

25-9041 Teacher Assistants 1.4% 1.6% 32 37 74 9229-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 1.6% 2.2% 122 184 263 38229-1111 Registered Nurses 1.8% 2.3% 44 63 79 11929-2000 Health Technologists and Technicians 1.6% 1.9% 46 59 106 14229-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 0.8% 2.0% 5 15 28 3931-0000 Healthcare Support Occupations 2.1% 2.3% 116 135 169 21931-1012 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 1.5% 1.6% 24 28 37 4835-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 1.1% 1.3% 184 226 903 73535-2000 Cooks and Food Preparation Workers 1.1% 1.4% 40 50 153 143

35-3021Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 1.4% 1.3% 54 54 121 158

35-3022Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop 1.2% 1.1% 20 19 219 68

35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 0.9% 1.3% 24 39 187 19137-2000 Building Cleaning and Pest Control Workers 2.3% 1.7% 131 111 232 241

37-2011Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1.9% 1.8% 55 58 108 124

37-2012 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 2.7% 1.7% 75 52 121 11339-0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations 2.2% 1.8% 198 189 443 42339-9011 Child Care Workers 3.2% 2.1% 83 61 164 14339-9021 Personal and Home Care Aides 3.2% 2.9% 44 47 59 70

Occupational Employment Projections (WDA-3)

Go To: https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/regional-reports/county-profiles Then click on County Data Tables for complete occupational information in Excel

https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/reports-publications/regional-reports/county-profiles



US Labor Force, December 2011 Both sexes, 65 years and over (Numbers in Thousands)

(Persons with a disability, then without a disability)• Civilian labor force. . . . . . . . . . . . . 849 6,511• Participation rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 23.3• Employed.. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 786 6,107• Employment-population ratio. . . 6.4 21.8• Unemployed.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 403• Unemployment rate.. . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 6.2• Not in labor force.. . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,529 21,475• Data not Seasonally Adjusted



US Unemployment Rates By AgeSeasonally Adjusted

Age and Gender December 2011 U-3 % US Unemployment Rate16 years and older 8.5

Men 8.7Women 8.3

20 years and older 8.0Men 8.0

Women 7.925 to 54 years 7.6

Men 7.5Women 7.6

55 years and older 6.2Men 6.1

Women 5.7 (not seasonally adjusted)65 years and older 6.2 (not seasonally adjusted)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf



Leading Indicators 101What are typical leading indicators?

• Leading indicators that have short to medium lead times typically are:o Initial Claims for unemployment insuranceo Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor's 500 Composite (Inflation adjusted)o Slower delivery times from manufacturerso Interest rate spreads between US 10-year treasury bonds and lower credit corporate

bonds

• Leading indicators that typically have medium to long lead times typically are:o New private housing units authorized by local permitting agencieso Housing prices (inflation adjusted)o Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor's 500 Industrials (Inflation adjusted)o Consumer expectations



Leading Indicators in PracticeUS business cycles: short versus long leading index

Sources: LMEA; Underlying data sources from Haver Analytics.

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12

US

Eco

nom

ic Id

ex

US Long-Leading Economic Index US Short-Leading Economic Index US Coinicident Economic Index

Recession Starts Dec-07Recession

Starts Mar-01

Long-Leading Peaks Jan-00

Short-Leading Peaks Sep-00

Mar-09

Long-Leading Peaks Feb-06

Short-Leading Peaks May-07

Long-Leading Index descending weights: single family housing permits and house prices, industrial stock prices, interest rate spreads between US 10-year Treasuries and Moody's seasoned Baa bonds, and a smaller weight to manufacturing.

Short-Leading Index descending weights: 10-year US treasury rate minus short-term interest rates, S&P500 price index, consumer sentiment on present situation, consumer spending on retail and food services, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and manufacturing.

Housing Still notspeeding recovery up!



San Juan County Commute PatternsCombining ESD Employment Data on Jobs by Place of Work

with Federal Data on Place of Residence Yields Commuting Patterns

2009 San Juan Commute Overview5,657 Workers Living in San Juan4,809 Jobs in San Juan3,967 Living & Employed in San Juan842 Commuter Inflow1,690 Commuter Outflow848 Net Commuter Outflow

Patterns Estimated with Census OnTheMap Online Software: http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/



San Juan County Commute Patterns:Work Destinations of San Juan Workers

2009 Map Data


Labor Market and Economic AnalysisSource: Employment Security Department/LMEA/OnTheMap

San Juan County Work Commute PatternsNet Outflow: Industry Destinations

Transportation and WarehousingHealth Care and Social AssistanceRetail TradeWholesale TradeEducational ServicesFinance and InsuranceProfessional, Scientific, and Technical ServicesManufacturingOther Services (excluding Public Administration)Admin. & Support, Waste Management and RemediationManagement of Companies and EnterprisesAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingInformationReal Estate and Rental and LeasingPublic AdministrationMining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ExtractionUtilitiesArts, Entertainment, and RecreationAccommodation and Food ServicesConstruction

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 606059

5450

42292827

17161513

97

0-2-3

-8-74

-86

Net Worker Outflow from San Juan County by Industry (2007-2009 Average)Blue Bars are Net Outflows and Red Bars are Net Inflows



Event: 'EMPLOYMENT DATA PRESENTATION WITH REINHOLD GROEPLER' Orcas Island

Date: Thursday, March 08, 2012 - 9:00 am 9 to 10:30 am at Eastsound Fire Hall Thursday, March 8

What were the final numbers for employment in San Juan County in 2011? What will the trends be this upcoming year? Join Washington State's Regional Labor Economist, Dr. Reinhold Groepler, as he discusses employment trends and future in San Juan County.

His presentation will cover labor force and employment data from 2011, likely trends in 2012, as well as commuting patterns. It will include a discussion of, and tables for, the occupations and demographics for the unemployed of San Juan County and the region.

https://www.sanjuanislander.com/calendar/month-by-month/view/21688/date/2012-03-08/214?tmpl=component

EVENT

https://www.sanjuanislander.com/calendar/month-by-month/view/21688/date/2012-03-08/214?tmpl=component

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“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.”