Predicting human Predicting human performance from performance from

psychological variablespsychological variables

Professor Andy LaneProfessor Andy Lane

School of Sport, Performing Arts and LeisureUniversity of Wolverhampton,

November 16November 16thth 2005 2005

  

OverviewOverview

• This presentation focuses on two This presentation focuses on two aspects:aspects:

• Relationships between psychological Relationships between psychological state variables and performance in state variables and performance in academic and athletic settings. academic and athletic settings.

• Strategies to improve enhance Strategies to improve enhance performance through developing performance through developing psychological skillspsychological skills

‘‘Tale of the tape’Tale of the tape’

• 85 papers in peer review journals85 papers in peer review journals• Editorial board member on 5 journals – editor for Editorial board member on 5 journals – editor for

22• Scientific reviewer for 20 journalsScientific reviewer for 20 journals• 5 PhD Completions 5 PhD Completions • Awards: BASES 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, Awards: BASES 1997, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005,

ECSS, 1998ECSS, 1998• 100k in internal and external grants100k in internal and external grants• Over 150 conference presentationsOver 150 conference presentations• Sport psychology consultant for World Champion Sport psychology consultant for World Champion

boxer, English Institute of Sport, PowerAde.boxer, English Institute of Sport, PowerAde.

Performance predictionPerformance prediction

Sport Academic

Boxing, Running, Kickboxing, Tennis, Cycling, Triathlon, Biathlon,

Basketball, Tae-kwon-do, Wakeboarding

Module performance, Oral examination,

Written examination Dissertation, Masters degree

Mood and self-efficacy

‘‘The real-world The real-world laboratory’laboratory’

Predicting Predicting PerformancePerformance

OverviewOverview• Performance influences emotions and self-Performance influences emotions and self-

efficacyefficacy• Emotions and self-efficacy influence Emotions and self-efficacy influence

performanceperformance• Control of emotions is importantControl of emotions is important• Developing self-efficacy is importantDeveloping self-efficacy is important• Understanding the process how psychological Understanding the process how psychological

states evolve over time is importantstates evolve over time is important• Emotional control and self-efficacy wins medals?Emotional control and self-efficacy wins medals?• Emotional control and self-efficacy passes Emotional control and self-efficacy passes

courses? courses?

Self-report vs other Self-report vs other methodsmethods

Self-report vs other Self-report vs other methodsmethods

• Psychophysiology/neurophysiology, Behavioural Psychophysiology/neurophysiology, Behavioural measures measures

• How would we really know what we are measuring How would we really know what we are measuring (e.g., fear or surprise in response to a laboratory (e.g., fear or surprise in response to a laboratory stimulus)?stimulus)?

• Psycho-physiological or behavioural measures of Psycho-physiological or behavioural measures of affect would have to be validated against self-affect would have to be validated against self-report. report.

• Many psychological constructs are Many psychological constructs are currently currently only only reliably reliably estimatedestimated through self-report. through self-report.

MoodMood

PROFILE OF MOOD PROFILE OF MOOD STATESSTATES

Below is a list of words that describe feelings people have. Please read each one carefully. Then circle the answer which best describes HOW YOU FEEL RIGHT NOW. Make sure you answer every question.

Not at all A little Moderately Quite a bit Extremely

1. Panicky 0 1 2 3 4

2. Lively 0 1 2 3 4

3. Confused 0 1 2 3 4

4. Furious 0 1 2 3 4

5. Worn out 0 1 2 3 4

6. Depressed 0 1 2 3 4

(Terry, Lane, Lane, & Keohane, 1999)

ICEBERG PROFILEICEBERG PROFILE60

50

40

30

SCORE

MOOD FACTORTEN DEP ANG VIG FAT CON

INVERSE ICEBERG INVERSE ICEBERG PROFILEPROFILE

807570656055504540353025

SCORE

MOOD FACTORTEN DEP ANG VIG FAT CON

Mood and performanceMood and performanceMeta-analysis of mood in Meta-analysis of mood in sport (Beedie, Terry, & sport (Beedie, Terry, &

Lane, 2000)Lane, 2000)• Vigour is associated with facilitated Vigour is associated with facilitated

performanceperformance• Confusion, Fatigue, and Depression are Confusion, Fatigue, and Depression are

associated with debilitated associated with debilitated performanceperformance..

• Anger and Tension were associated with Anger and Tension were associated with facilitated performance in some studies facilitated performance in some studies and debilitated performance in others.and debilitated performance in others.

Theory and Theory and measurement issues measurement issues

that needed that needed addressing addressing

concurrentlyconcurrently

Measurement of mood in Measurement of mood in sportsport

• Terry, Lane, Lane, and Keohane (1999, 2003) Terry, Lane, Lane, and Keohane (1999, 2003) developed a 24-item scale that assesses anger, developed a 24-item scale that assesses anger, confusion, depression, fatigue, tension and confusion, depression, fatigue, tension and vigour (The Brunel Mood Scale: BRUMS).vigour (The Brunel Mood Scale: BRUMS).

o Face validity Face validity o Factor validity Factor validity o Predictive and concurrent validityPredictive and concurrent validityo The BRUMS is the most comprehensively The BRUMS is the most comprehensively

validated measure of POMS subscales available validated measure of POMS subscales available for sport researchers.for sport researchers.– It has also been successfully translated and shown It has also been successfully translated and shown

factorial validity for use in Arabic, Hungarian, and factorial validity for use in Arabic, Hungarian, and Italian athletes.Italian athletes.

Development of a Development of a theoretical model theoretical model

of mood-of mood-performance performance relationshipsrelationships

Figure 1: A conceptual model for prediction Figure 1: A conceptual model for prediction of performance from mood (Lane & Terry, of performance from mood (Lane & Terry,

2000)2000)

Reduced Reduced VigourVigour

VigourVigour

FatigueFatigue

ConfusionConfusion

AngerAnger

TensionTension

Increased Increased FatigueFatigue

IncreasedIncreased ConfusionConfusion

Increased Increased TensionTension

IncreasedIncreased AngerAnger

DepressionDepression

DebilitativeDebilitativeEffectsEffects

Reduced FacilitativeReduced FacilitativeEffectsEffects

No DepressionNo Depression

FacilitativeFacilitativeEffectsEffects

DebilitativeDebilitativeEffectsEffects

CurvilinearCurvilinearEffectsEffects

Figure 2: Lane and Terry (2000): High Figure 2: Lane and Terry (2000): High anger, confusion, fatigue, and tension and anger, confusion, fatigue, and tension and

low vigour will be associated with low vigour will be associated with Depressed mood.Depressed mood.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

T-scores

Anger Confusion Fatigue Tension Vigour

No-depression Depression

Mood state scores by Mood state scores by depressed mood: A review depressed mood: A review

(Lane & Terry, 2005)(Lane & Terry, 2005)Figure 3. Effect sizes for differences in mood states

by depression scores

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Anger Confusion Fatigue Tension Vigour

Mood

Effe

ct s

ize

Figure 4: Effects sizes for mood performance relationships by depression scores

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

No-depression

Depressed mood

Figure 4: Effects sizes for mood performance relationships by depression scores

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

No-depression

Depressed mood

Theoretical Theoretical developmentsdevelopments

• Integrate more positive mood states Integrate more positive mood states into the Lane and Terry (2000) model.into the Lane and Terry (2000) model.

• Explore relationships between mood Explore relationships between mood and emotional intelligence (Lane, and emotional intelligence (Lane, Devonport, & Galloway, 2005; Lane, Devonport, & Galloway, 2005; Lane, Soos et al., 2005).Soos et al., 2005).– Emotional intelligence, mood-regulation, Emotional intelligence, mood-regulation,

and mood states are the focus of current and mood states are the focus of current applied research projects.applied research projects.

Figure 5: A Revised Lane & Terry (2000) Figure 5: A Revised Lane & Terry (2000) model (Lane, in press)model (Lane, in press)

Reduced Reduced VigourVigour

VigourVigour

CalmnessCalmness

AngerAnger

TensionTension

ReducedReducedCalmnessCalmness

ReducedReduced HappinessHappiness

Increased Increased TensionTension

IncreasedIncreased AngerAnger

DepressionDepression

DebilitativeDebilitativeEffectsEffects

Reduced FacilitativeReduced FacilitativeEffectsEffects

No DepressionNo Depression

FacilitativeFacilitativeEffectsEffects

CurvilinearCurvilinearEffectsEffects

HappinessHappiness

Emotional intelligence, Mood Emotional intelligence, Mood states for student athletesstates for student athletes

(Ciarrochi, Forgas, & Mayer, 2001)(Ciarrochi, Forgas, & Mayer, 2001)

EventsEventsOutcomesOutcomes

Competition demandsAcademic demands

Adaptation

Emotional intelligencePerceiving emotion, Perceiving emotion,

Integrating emotion in thought,Integrating emotion in thought,

Understanding emotion, and Understanding emotion, and

Managing emotionManaging emotion

Athletic successAcademic success

Mood states

Mood, emotional Mood, emotional intelligence and intelligence and

performanceperformance• Based on data from 150 student Based on data from 150 student athletes, Lane, Thelwell et al. athletes, Lane, Thelwell et al. (2005) found mood states (2005) found mood states associated with success in sport associated with success in sport differ to success in differ to success in examinations.examinations.

Mood and performance in sport and examination domains

0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50

Best Sport

Best Examination

Worst Sport

Worst Examination

Lane, Thelwell et al. 2005 Lane, Thelwell et al. 2005 continuedcontinued

Anger by performance (sport and examination) by emotional intelligence

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

Bestcompetition

Worstcompetition

Bestexamination

Worstexamination

Low EI

High EI

Developing emotional Developing emotional intelligence with student intelligence with student

athletesathletesSport and exercise

psychologist

Learning and performing in academia

Learning and performing in sport

Explore mood-performance

relationships in sport /college

Develop self-regulation skills

Mood Responses to World Mood Responses to World Championship competition: Championship competition:

A case study of World A case study of World Champion professional boxer Champion professional boxer

(Lane, 2003)(Lane, 2003)

Mood scores between best Mood scores between best and worst performanceand worst performance

30

35

40

45

50

55

Anger Depression Fatigue Tension Vigour

Best performanceWorst performance

Psychological skillsPsychological skills

• Use of video to develop:Use of video to develop:• Imagery scriptsImagery scripts• Performance accomplishmentsPerformance accomplishments

• Use of music for relaxation and activationUse of music for relaxation and activation• Concentration training to enhance Concentration training to enhance

attentional control – required to switch attentional control – required to switch between roundsbetween rounds

• Develop communication skills with Develop communication skills with coach, particularly between roundscoach, particularly between rounds

Temporal considerationsTemporal considerations

• Develop mental game plan for fight 4 Develop mental game plan for fight 4 weeks beforehand (when within target weeks beforehand (when within target weight)weight)

• What if scenarios for anxiety, fatigue, What if scenarios for anxiety, fatigue, poor performance.poor performance.

• Develop impression management skills Develop impression management skills for weigh-in, dealing with media.for weigh-in, dealing with media.

• Develop and practice plan for three Develop and practice plan for three hours before the contest.hours before the contest.

Mood management Mood management SummarySummary

• Identification of potentially Identification of potentially debilitating moods is crucialdebilitating moods is crucial– Encourage athletes to be aware of their Encourage athletes to be aware of their

moodsmoods– Encourage athletes to identify the Encourage athletes to identify the

causes of moods and seek strategies to causes of moods and seek strategies to regulate these moods (see Stevens & regulate these moods (see Stevens & Lane, 2001)Lane, 2001)

Conclusion: Conclusion: A model of A model of the lecturer-the lecturer-practitionerpractitioner

• Identification of variables that influence Identification of variables that influence performanceperformance

• Develop robust measuresDevelop robust measures• Test theoretical relationships and form Test theoretical relationships and form

new ones, and re-test.new ones, and re-test.• Conduct theoretically driven Conduct theoretically driven

interventionsinterventions– Test and modify in the light of resultsTest and modify in the light of results

Thank you….Thank you….