PREDICTING EFFECTS ON

WATER PRODUCTIVITY

AND THE WATER

BALANCE

DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR:

PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY

WLI Achievements• Good experiences using crop-

water-productivity models • Good progress on use of GIS for

mapping alternative cropping patterns and scenarios

• Identification of a simple reporting method

• Socio-economists on board and ready

• Strong support network at USAID and USDA ARS

6 DATA POINTS FOR USAID FTF 2010 2015 2020a Total Production by direct beneficiaries

during reporting period (TP)Ton/yr

b Total Value of Sales (USD) by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (VS)

US$/yr

c Total Quantity (volume) of Sales by direct beneficiaries during reporting period (QS)

Ton/yr

d Total Recurrent Cash Input Costs of direct beneficiaries during reporting period (IC)

Weight/yr

e Total Units of Production (UP) ha =/<Site area? =/<Site area?

1 Average price (VS/QS)

2 Gross revenue (TPxVS/QS)

3 Net revenue (TPxVS/QS) - IC

Gross margin/ha (3/UP)

4 Water use m3/ha Water m3/yr

Water productivity (GM/m3)

Gross margin per ha, per animal, per cage = [(TP x VS/QS) – IC ] / UP

PREDICTING FUTURE WATER PRODUCTIVITY:Remaining Challenges• Scale challenge• Diversity of land and water

conditions and qualities• Diversity of cropping patterns• Integrating crops and

livestock• Other uses of water• Definition and measurement

of water consumption

• (Economic aspects, prices, future uncertainties)

Water ProductivityGross marginWater consumed m3

ASSESSMENTS OF WATER BALANCE

WLI Achievements• Characterization of benchmark

sites• Identification of relevant policies • Sub-national assessments scarce

and valuable• Clear role for WLI teams in

improvement of relevant policies • Widely recognized need• Use of relevant models incl. WEAP

and SWAT• Strong support network in US

Universities

ASSESSMENTS OF WATER BALANCE

Remaining Challenges• Identification of system boundaries • Scale challenges• Temporal challenges for prediction

of future water availability• Uncertainty, variability• Data access (real and perceived)• Some water sources less well

understood –i.e. groundwater, reusable wastewater

• Inter-sectoral cooperation• Integration of WLI data elements

with impr. mgtCropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:

Annual Water Use

m3/yr

Gross Margin/m3

$/m3/yr

Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:

Annual Water Use

m3/yr

Gross Margin/m3

$/m3/yr

Cropping PatternHa cereals: Ha horticulture: N/ha livestock:

Annual Water

Use m3/yr

Gross Margin/m3

$/m3/yr

Pres

ent

w.out impr. mgt

Water BalancereusegroundwaterSurface inflowsrainfed

19902000

20102020

20302040

20500

40

80

19902000

20102020

20302040

20500

40

80

Futu

re M

anag

emen

t Str

ateg

ies

Benchmark Site

THANK YOUContact: c.king@cgiar.org