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PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURETED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL
UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE
FALL 2014
THE CURRENT DOMAIN OF RESILIENCY PLANNING
PLANNING FOR A FUNDAMENTALLY UNCERTAIN FUTURE
“Jazz win first NBA title”
“President Chelsea Clinton bans non-pot smoking”
“Jenna Bush announces candidacy for President”
“Fidel Castro dies at age 102, Cuban cigars now legal”
“BYU joins the Texmex 12 conference”
HEADLINES FROM 2030
WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?
• Demographic mix• Amount of growth• Consumer attitudes
• Industry shifts• Energy costs• Economic cycles• Climate change
• Natural disasters
Unpredictable
Some Predictability
RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: MARKET SHIFTS
WASATCH FRONT DEMOGRAPHICSGOVERNOR’S OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
2013 2030 Growth0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Over 6518 to 64
31%
COHORT CHANGES THAT WILL DRIVE THE HOUSING MARKET
Dow
ntow
n
Res
iden
tial C
ity
Mixed
Sub
urba
n
Resid
entia
l Sub
urba
n
Smal
l Tow
n
Rural
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Boomer Eisenhower Gen X Gen Y
WHERE WE WANT TO LIVE VERSUS WHERE WE LIVE
INDUSTRY SHIFTS
• Internet-related retail decline
• Auto industry dealer consolidation
• Industrial restructuring
MARKET UNCERTAINTY? POLICY FLEXIBILITY
“MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE POLICIES
• North Salt Lake General Plan 2013
• Town Center policies
“MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE STRATEGIES
• South Salt Lake “East Streetcar Neighborhood Form Based Code”
UTAH’S TEMPLATE FORM BASED CODE
HIGHER DENSITY ZONING PROVIDES MORE MARKET FLEXIBILITY
Low Density Zoning High Density Zoning0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DU/Acre
RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, September 2012
GAS PRICESRecent Trends Projections
US Energy Information Agency
MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON TRANSPORTATION
Data not available
0 to 730 $
730 to 800 $
800 to 860 $
860 to 930 $
More than 930 $
2000 2008
MOST HOUSEHOLDS ARE SPREAD THIN
• Utahans spend about 25% on transportation
HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES?
• Housing?
• Transportation?
• Work?
• Food?
• Do city residents have the options available to cope?
?
?
?
??
WHAT CHOICES DOES A HOUSEHOLD HAVE?
• Transportation Choices?
• Housing Choices?
DESTINATIONS REACHABLE WITHOUT A CAR?
Now 2040
Jobs reachable within 40 minutes of homes
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY? PROVIDE OPTIONS FOR HOUSEHOLDS?
“CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL
Two valid ways of communicating:
A mix of housing options in the community
=
“I have more choices”
=
“I have more control over my life”
More high density housing in the community
=
“More crowding in the community”
=
“I feel less safe”
“CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL
Two valid ways of communicating:
“Choices” “Crowding”
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Resiliency Planning in cities is critically needed and in its infancy
• Market Uncertainty? Policy Flexibility
• Economic Uncertainty? Maximize Choices
• Communication Approach Matters!
• Higher density zoning provides More Market Flexibility
• “Choices” = control over your life
PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURETED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL
UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE
FALL 2014