METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS Meteorol. Appl. 16: 253 (2009) BOOK REVIEW PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE, edited by Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn. 2006. Cambridge Uni- versity Press: Cambridge, UK. ISBN 9780521848824. 718 pp. ‘Predictability’, as applied to weather and climate, is the estimation of uncertainty in predictions. Recently, predictability has changed from a rather esoteric concept discussed in research fora to a quantitative measure that is routinely issued alongside weather and climate predictions. In view of this, a meeting was held at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in 2002 to bring together experts to discuss and synthesize the latest developments in this rapidly changing field. This edited collection of extended papers is the summary of that meeting. The book is aimed at researchers in the field but would also be suitable as a supplementary advanced graduate text, in conjunction with other, more traditional texts. Chapter 1 provides the basics of predictability theory, together with a tour of recent research projects that put it into practice. Chapter 2 then puts these ideas into a dynamical meteorological context. The third chapter is the only one not to arise directly out of the 2002 ECMWF meeting. Ed Lorenz is one of the founding fathers of chaos theory. An earlier presentation that he gave at ECMWF, which became known as the Lorenz- 1996 model had not been formally published, and well deserves its inclusion in this volume. Further theoretical work follows with chapters on the Liouville equation, and generalized stability theory. Two chapters follow, on data assimilation and the role of initial conditions in predictability. These concepts are then applied in comprehensive reviews of specific phenomena, such as ocean-atmosphere coupling, intra-seasonal variability, the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and flow-regime properties. Implementation of predictability measures and recent advances at some of the major forecasting centres are then discussed, followed by several chapters on the real-world usage of predictability outputs. The individual chapters are well written, and the collection is edited together well as a whole. This book is the reference for anyone involved in the development, implementation and interpretation of weather and climate predictability, and will also appeal to the more general reader. Adrian Matthews School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/met.104 Copyright 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE, edited by Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn. 2006. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. ISBN 9780521848824. 718 pp

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Page 1: PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE, edited by Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn. 2006. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK. ISBN 9780521848824. 718 pp

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONSMeteorol. Appl. 16: 253 (2009)

BOOK REVIEW

PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE, editedby Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn. 2006. Cambridge Uni-versity Press: Cambridge, UK. ISBN 9780521848824. 718 pp.

‘Predictability’, as applied to weather and climate, isthe estimation of uncertainty in predictions. Recently,predictability has changed from a rather esoteric conceptdiscussed in research fora to a quantitative measurethat is routinely issued alongside weather and climatepredictions. In view of this, a meeting was held at theEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) in 2002 to bring together experts to discussand synthesize the latest developments in this rapidlychanging field. This edited collection of extended papersis the summary of that meeting. The book is aimed atresearchers in the field but would also be suitable asa supplementary advanced graduate text, in conjunctionwith other, more traditional texts.

Chapter 1 provides the basics of predictability theory,together with a tour of recent research projects that putit into practice. Chapter 2 then puts these ideas intoa dynamical meteorological context. The third chapteris the only one not to arise directly out of the 2002ECMWF meeting. Ed Lorenz is one of the foundingfathers of chaos theory. An earlier presentation that hegave at ECMWF, which became known as the Lorenz-

1996 model had not been formally published, and welldeserves its inclusion in this volume. Further theoreticalwork follows with chapters on the Liouville equation,and generalized stability theory. Two chapters follow,on data assimilation and the role of initial conditionsin predictability. These concepts are then applied incomprehensive reviews of specific phenomena, such asocean-atmosphere coupling, intra-seasonal variability, theNorth Atlantic thermohaline circulation and flow-regimeproperties. Implementation of predictability measures andrecent advances at some of the major forecasting centresare then discussed, followed by several chapters on thereal-world usage of predictability outputs.

The individual chapters are well written, and thecollection is edited together well as a whole. This bookis the reference for anyone involved in the development,implementation and interpretation of weather and climatepredictability, and will also appeal to the more generalreader.

Adrian MatthewsSchool of Environmental Sciences, University of East

Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

Published online in Wiley InterScience(www.interscience.wiley.com).

DOI: 10.1002/met.104