Precious Metals 101 · 2019. 8. 3. · Global Market Introduction Present Mass Market IPMI Auto Catalyst & Fuel Cell Seminar April 5, 2019 Slide 26

Fuel Cell Market Research & New Energy

Precious Metals Opportunities

Matt WatsonPrecious Metals Commodity Management LLC

IPMI Auto Catalyst & Fuel Cell Seminar April 5, 2019 Slide 2

Outline: Fuel Cells & New Energy – Day 2

• Fuel Cell Market Overview

• Fuel Cell System Suppliers – Who are the players?

• Cost Elements of Electrification

• Fuel Cell PGM Forecast

• Vehicle Powertrain Mix – Implications

• New Energy – The Power Grid Of The Future & Implications To the

Hydrogen Economy


Fuel Cell Market: Hey, Watt’s Up?Market Scale Expressed in Units of Energy

• Watt (W) - The standard unit of power, equal to the power in a circuit in which a current of

one ampere flows across a potential difference of one volt.

• Kilowatts (kW) - 1,000 (thousand) Watts

• Kilowatt Hours (kWh) - The energy transferred or expended in one hour by one kW of power

• Megawatt (MW) - 1,000,000 (million) Watts

• Megawatt Hours (MWh)

• Gigawatt (GW) – 1,000,000,000 (billion) Watts

• Gigawatt Hours – GWh

• Terawatt (GW) – 1,000,000,000,000 (zillion) Watts

• Terawatt Hours - TWh


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PGM Containing Fuel Cell Megawats by Applicaion

Portable Stationary Transport

Fuel Cell Market Productized

2018: Over 4.5 GW of installed Fuel Cells


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Fuel Cell MW by FC Technology

PEMFC* PAFC* AFC* DMFC SOFC MCFC Other

Fuel Cells By FC Technology

PEMFC*Proton-Exchange

Membrane Fuel Cell

Precious Metal-based electrodes &

Platinum-based catalyst

PAFC*Phosphoric Acid Fuel

CellsPlatinum-Ruthenium catalyst anodes

AFC* Alkaline Fuel CellPlatinum catalyst on carbon and a silicon

carbide structure anodes

DMFCDirect Methanol

Fuel Cell

SOFCSolid Oxide Fuel

CellsBloom Energy

MCFCMolten Carbonate

Fuel Cells

Other Others

Fuel Cell Types


Fuel Cell Operating Characteristics

Low operating temperature makes PEM technology the best fit for LDV applications.

Bloom Energy


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PGM Containing Fuel Cell Megawats by Applicaion

Portable Stationary Transport

Precious Metals Containing FC’s Installed

3.5 GW of Fuel Cells Containing PGM’s Installed through 2018.

Stationary and Portable all along

Then in 2016 Transportation category started taking off.

MW’s


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MW Shipped By Transportation Sector

LDV Forklift HDV Trucks Busses Trains

Transportation Related FC’s - MW’s Shipped

Forklifts all along

Then in 2016:• Busses• LDV FCEV’s

3.0 GW of Transportation Fuel Cells Containing PGM’s Installed through 2018.


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FC Catalyst Pt Toz (000's) Demand by Applicaion

Stationary Transport Portable

FC Catalyst Pt Demand FC Segment

~42k Toz of Pt in 2018 shipped


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FC Catalyst Pt Demand (000's Toz) by Transportation

LDV Forklift HDV Trucks Busses Trains

FC Catalyst Pt Content By Transportation


Example of present day FCEV loadings

Light duty VehiclesMake Model Year kW g/LDV g/kW

Toyota Mirai 2017 114 33 0.289

Toyota Mirai 2018/19 114 30 0.263

Toyota Mirai 2020/21 114 14-16 0.132

Toyota Mirai 2018/19 114 30 0.263

Honda Clarity 2018/19 120 30 0.250

Hyundai Tuscon SUV 2017 120 76 0.633

Hyundai Nexo SUV 2018/19 100 56 0.633

DOE Targets 2030 0.100

Heavy Duty VehiclesMake Model Year kW g/LDV g/kW

Toyota/Kenworth Class 8 2017 200 82.5 0.413

Toyota/Kenworth Class 8 2018 200 60 0.300

2017/18/19 FCEV Loadings


LDV gPGM/kW Loadings TrajectoryGen1:

• 500 grams Pt

• 150kW Engine

• 3.4g/kW

gPGM/Vehicle & gPGM/kW

2009 2011 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030

Gen2:

• 300 grams Pt

• 130kW Engine

• 2.1g/kW

Gen3:

• 80 grams Pt

• 125kW Engine

• 0.64g/kW

Gen4: 2017 Prius

• 33 grams Pt

• 95kW Engine

• 0.35g/kW

Gen5: 2018 Prius/Clarity

• 30 grams Pt

• 95kW Engine

• 0.315g/kW

Gen6: 2020 Prius

• 14-16 grams Pt

• 95kW Engine

• 0.147g/kW

2030 DOE Goal

• 9.5 grams Pt

• 95kW Engine

• 0.100 g/kW


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g/kW per Transportation Application

HDV Trucks Busses Trains LDV

gPGM/kW – Loadings Trajectory Forecast

Trains and busses less efficient because often there are secondary systems operating for the HVAC and other electrical systems









Hydrogen Economy


Fuel Cell System Providers

Others:

• ElectroChem

• FKK

• IdaTech

• Jadoo

• ReliOn, Inc.

• Voller Energ

Stationary Systems Forklift & Transportation

Portable Systems

SOFC

https://www.horizonfuelcell.com/



Fuel Cell Applications

10 kWW 100 kWW 150 kW 200 kW50 kWW100 kW –20 MW


Stationary System ProvidersBloom Energy

SOFC Based




Stationary System Providers


Portable Fuel Cell System Providers


Battlespace Management Systems

(BMS)

Combat Search-and-Rescue Prolonged Field

Care (CSAR/PJ/PFC)

Expeditionary / Dismounted Infantry

Power (INF)

Explosive Ordnance Demolition (EOD)

Extended Fire Support (JTAC/FO/CCT/TAC-P)

Special Operations Communications (SOF)

Recon, Surveillance, Target Analysis (RSTA)

Unmanned Systems (UAV/UGV)

Mil/Aero Portable System Providers


Fuel Cell Forklifts

• Plug Power

• Ballard

• Toyota

• Hyster

• Yale

• Still

• Others

2-3 minute refuelingAll weatherLower TCONo changing batteries.No propane explosion risk


Light Duty FCEV Providers

• Toyota

• Honda

• Hyundai

• GM

• BAIC

• Audi

• Mercedes

• Lexus

• Nisan

• BMW

• Great Wall

• SAFC


LDV FCEV Top Sellers Through 2025 (Top 4 = 77% share, Top 7 = 90% share)

#1) Mirai - $59k

#2) Clarity - $59k

#3) 2017-18 Tucson - $60k

#4) 2019 Nexo - $59kEquinox


Bus Fuel Cell System Providers

2014 Global Market Introduction Present Mass Market


HDV Fuel Cell System Providers

2014 Global Market Introduction Present Mass Market


Fuel Cell Train Providers


Two California Ports Get Millions to Reduce Air Pollution

• The California Air Resources Board is awarding two grants for $90 million to the nation’s two busiest ports — Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach, respectively — to develop a Zero Emission and Near Zero-Emission Freight Facilities project.

• https://www.ttnews.com/articles/two-california-ports-get-millions-reduce-air-pollution

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/two-california-ports-get-millions-reduce-air-pollution


Fuel Cell Systems For Marine Applications

• FC Systems In Development for

Ferries.

• Military – Navy Vessels

• Cruise Ships - General Electric’s Power

Conversion business and Nedstack, Dutch fuel cell

manufacturer, have entered into a partnership to

develop hydrogen fuel cell systems for powering

zero-emission cruise vessels.


Hydrogen Refueling Stations

H2 Stations39 Retail Open Today

~60 underwayFunding 200

California Northeast

$2.5M CA Construction Subsidy each.


Global Hydrogen Council


Does This Sound Like Fuel Cells Will Never Work?

This technology is productized.It is a mature industry that is growing.

Jonathan Butler is correct …. Its all about the value proposition, and its

evolving quickly.









Hydrogen Economy


BEV’s & FCEV’s Forecast Demand By Region

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LMC: LDV Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV's) Forecast

China N.America EU Japan ROW

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LMC Auto: LDV Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV's) ForecastChina N.America EU Japan ROW

FCEV scale in actual units sold. Small number.Matt forecasts close to 1M/year by 2025.

China 1M 2018 alone. China on pace for 2M in 2019.

LMC Auto 2018

LMC Auto 2018

2020: Toyota 30k/yr2022: Hyundai 40k/yr

2025: China 50k on road2030: China 1M on road

2025: USA select states 3.3M zero emission vehicles.


What’s the Motivation For Electrification?

Meeting Café

Standards and

overall fleet/

population

CO2 Emission

statistics.C

O2 E

mis

sio

ns

Fuel C

onsum

pti

on


FCEV’s and BEV’s are Connected In Cost

• Both share electric

motors.

• Share Li-Ion

Battery

Technology

• Both BEV and FCEV

vehicle cost

adders are

challenges to

broader adoption.

Tesla


Tesla is Helping Lead The Way OnLi Ion Battery Cathode Raw Material Costs & Battery Optimization

Tesla is leading the way down the Li-Ion cost curve!


2018 Li-Ion Battery Costs

• Longer Range and Larger

Battery kW BEV’s and PHEV’s

cost more.

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Electrical Driving Range (Miles) Versus BEV/PHEV Vehcile Price

$20k BEV or PHEV

$140k BEV or PHEV

EV Range Vs. EV Cost

Battery kW Vs. EV Cost


2018 Electric Motor Cost

• Larger size EV Motors

cot more.

• Cost trend is for

smaller shorter range

EV’s

• Y/Y Cost Reductions

on EV’s as BEV and

PHEV volumes goes up. 0

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EV Motor kW Vs. EV Cost


BEV’s and PHEV’s – the cost of fill-ups

USA Average

Califronia Average


2018 EV Cost Comparison Model

Powertrain (example) MPGeMfg Cost

Adder

Fuel

Reduce%USA Ave.

No. Calif.

Ave.EU Ave. USA Ave. California EU

Base ICE Engine (midsize) 25 Baseline --> 0% 1,350.00$ 2,010.00$ 1,820.16$ Baseline Baseline Baseline

Micro-Hybrid (Mini EV) 26 337$ -2% (28)$ (42)$ (38)$ 53$ (85)$ (45)$

48V Mild Hybrid (VW Passat GTE) 27 1,388$ -9% (120)$ (179)$ (162)$ 187$ (401)$ (232)$

Strong Hybrid P2 (Toyota Prius) 50 2,463$ -34% (675)$ (1,005)$ (910)$ (4,287)$ (7,587)$ (6,638)$

Strong Hybrid PS (Honda Insight) 45 4,995$ -33% (605)$ (901)$ (816)$ (1,055)$ (4,012)$ (3,162)$

PHEV20* (BMW 225xe) 47 11,250$ -47% (262)$ (271)$ (532)$ 8,626$ 8,542$ 5,928$

PHEV40* (Volvo XC60) 72 14,236$ -65% (634)$ (865)$ (972)$ 7,897$ 5,589$ 4,515$

BEV100* (VW e-Golf) 103 16,077$ -100% (648)$ (738)$ (1,210)$ 9,597$ 8,692$ 3,974$

BEV200* (Chevrolet Bolt) 102 17,500$ -100% (648)$ (738)$ (1,210)$ 11,020$ 10,115$ 5,397$

Toyota Mirai FCV (@ volume 3k/yr) 67 31,500$ -100% 1,807$ 1,147$ (158)$ 49,567$ 42,967$ 29,924$

Toyota Mirai FCV (what if @ 400k/yr) 67 18,250$ -100% 1,807$ 1,147$ (158)$ 36,317$ 29,717$ 16,674$

Toyota Mirai FCV (what if @ 1Mk/yr) 67 13,500$ -100% 1,807$ 1,147$ (158)$ 31,567$ 24,967$ 11,924$

* includes charging station cost Regular Gas USD/Gallon 2.25$ 3.35$ 5.76$ <-- EU $1.52/liter

Power Grid Cost kW 0.101$ 0.224$ 0.204$

eGallon $/Gal 1.17$ 2.12$ 1.93$

Average Miles/year 15,000 15,000 7,900

Hybrid H2 Cost/Kg 14.10$ 14.10$ 14.10$

Fuel + Charge Cost/Per Year Vs Baseline Net Up-Front + Fuel Cost Adder (10-yrs)

Annual Gas or Charge Cost or H2 Cost TCO Up Front Adder + 10 yr Gas Cost

#1

#2

#4

#5

#3


2018 EV Vehicle Cost Analysis Conclusions#1) Hybrids Lowest TCO: Better TCO than Gas

• People are choosing hybrids for cost.

• 55 mpg for modest up front cost adder is a financial winner.

#2 Mini & Mild Hybrids 2nd place

• Mini Hybrids are near break even

#3 BEV’s are 3rd place

• Short range are best cost play. Small batteries and small EV motors.

• >50% driving trips are is less than 40 miles.

• $5k Tesla 3 would help a great deal.

#3) Long Range PHEV’s 4th Place – but improving in cost y/y

• True $35k Tesla is a breakthrough, actual $42k.

• Note: Resale value of $100k+ Tesla’s is ugly.

Battery Replacement: Li-Ion Battery Replacement Costs not folded into this TCO model. $11-15k

for long range Tesla. $1.5k for Prius Hybrid. Durability improving y/y.

#2

#1

#3

#4


2018 FCEV Vehicle Cost Analysis Conclusions

#4) FCEV’s are the Highest TCO by Far

• Hydrogen Fueling cost higher than gas/diesel.

• Today in CA $14.10/kg. 1Kg = 67 miles. 1 gallon gas = 28 mpg

• 2x to 3x higher fuel costs today. Need solution.

• Hydrogen Delivery is 45% of the H2 retail cost.

• More H2 Refueling Stations are an early limitation to FCEV’s. That’s changing fast.

• New low cost point of sale “Green” Hydrogen Electrolyzers will alter the cost curve.

There are emerging technologies with little to no CO2 emissions.

• Most of today $2B “Grey” Hydrogen production comes from Natural Gas Steam

Reformation. This production process is heavy in CO2 emissions.

• Low Volume Production Costs drive up front Cost Adder.

• 13 manually assembled Mirai’s a day is not cost effective.

• Fuel Cell Stacks for Mirai $11k today will get to $8k in volume

#5


Toyota plans to expand production, shrink cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles


Cost Of Oil/Gas and Electricity Keeps Climbing –Both have more than doubled in 10 years

Exponential growth of US Natural Gas market has clearly bent the global and US oil/gas cost curves


2035 EV Cost Comparison ModelGas Price doubles, EV adders 50%, volume FCEV production and H2 50% price

Suddenly All Config’s Cheaper Gas

All Adders 50%

Powertrain (example) MPGeMfg Cost

Adder

Fuel

Reduce%USA Ave.

No. Calif.

Ave.EU Ave. USA Ave. California EU

Base ICE Engine (midsize) 25 Baseline --> 0% 2,700.00$ 4,020.00$ 3,640.32$ Baseline Baseline Baseline

Micro-Hybrid (Mini EV) 26 169$ -2% (57)$ (84)$ (76)$ (399)$ (676)$ (596)$

48V Mild Hybrid (VW Passat GTE) 27 694$ -9% (240)$ (358)$ (324)$ (1,709)$ (2,884)$ (2,546)$

Strong Hybrid P2 (Toyota Prius) 50 1,232$ -34% (1,350)$ (2,010)$ (1,820)$ (12,269)$ (18,869)$ (16,970)$

Strong Hybrid PS (Honda Insight) 45 2,498$ -33% (1,210)$ (1,801)$ (1,631)$ (9,602)$ (15,517)$ (13,816)$

PHEV20* (BMW 225xe) 47 5,625$ -47% (525)$ (542)$ (1,064)$ 376$ 209$ (5,020)$

PHEV40* (Volvo XC60) 72 7,118$ -65% (1,268)$ (1,729)$ (1,944)$ (5,559)$ (10,177)$ (12,324)$

BEV100* (VW e-Golf) 103 8,039$ -100% (1,296)$ (1,477)$ (2,421)$ (4,922)$ (6,731)$ (16,167)$

BEV200* (Chevrolet Bolt) 102 8,750$ -100% (1,296)$ (1,477)$ (2,421)$ (4,210)$ (6,019)$ (15,456)$

Toyota Mirai FCV (what if @ 1Mk/yr) 67 13,500$ -100% (1,122)$ (2,442)$ (2,809)$ 2,284$ (10,916)$ (14,591)$

* includes charging station cost Regular Gas USD/Gallon 4.50$ 6.70$ 11.52$ <-- All Gas Doubles 2040, EU $3.04/liter

Power Grid Cost kW 0.202$ 0.448$ 0.408$ <-- Doubles

eGallon $/Gal 2.34$ 4.24$ 3.86$ <-- Doubles

Average Miles/year 15,000 15,000 7,900

Hybrid H2 Cost/Kg 7.05$ 7.05$ 7.05$ <-- Reduces 50%

Annual Gas or Charge Cost or H2 Cost TCO Up Front Adder + 10 yr Gas Cost

Fuel + Charge Cost/Per Year Vs Baseline Net Up-Front + Fuel Cost Adder (10-yrs)


US Department Of Energy (2017 FC Cost Goals)

Today

Air Products $10/kg Retail


Current Hydrogen Storage, Distribution and Generation Market

• ~45% of todays retail Hydrogen gas is tanker transportation related.• Over 90% of today’s hydrogen comes from Natural Gas refining Steam

Reformation








• New Energy – The Power Grid Of The Future & Impications To the

Hydrogen Economy


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Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales Forecast

Forklift

HDV Trucks

Busses

Trains

LDV

LMC Auto FCEV

Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales Forecast

Forecast

Matt’s model is far more optimistic than LMC Auto’s.

Total Today: 18k

Matt’s FCEV Forecast:2025 = 270k2030 = 1M

LMC Auto:2025 = 24k2030 = 69k

Battery and EV Motor Costs will Improve. Breakthroughs on

Hydrogen production and delivery will come (using PGM’s).

Huge appetite for Zero CO2 FCEV’s.


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Surplus / Deficit Trend (000's Toz)

Platinum Palladium Rhodium

PGM Surplus/Deficit (000’s Toz)

Surp

lus

Defic

it

Balance

Palladium


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Fuel Cell Megawats by Applicaion


Forecast Fuel Cell Catalyst Global MW’s

105 GW by 2030

19 GW by 2030


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FC Catalyst Pt Toz (000's) Demand by Applicaion


FC Catalyst Pt Demand Model

268k Toz

646k Toz

2030 Pt Demand








• New Energy – The Power Grid Of The Future & Impications To the

Hydrogen Economy


Long Term Powertrain Conversion Model

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Forecast LDV Sales (millions units)

ICE Hybrid PHEV BEV FCEV FCEV 11M or 8% Mix

M's % M's %

Total 133.1 100% 2,888 100%

BEV 44.7 520

PHEV 13.4 239

FCEV 11.0 8.2% 127 4.4%

43.6% 26.3%

Year 2050 On the Road

BEV 45M or 34% Mix

PHEV 13M or 10% Mix

Hybrids

ICE


Global Energy Consumption1.4B vehicles on the road today, perhaps as many as 2.8B by 2050.BEV Penetration of 26% = 759M BEV’s @ 1kW per 4 BEV miles Driven.


$-

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2018 Industrial Demand Pareto ($M's USD)

Au Ag Pt Pd Rh Ru Ir

Decomposing the $65B Precious Metals Industrial Products TAM

This is our focus at IPMI PGM’s In Mobility Event.

1) $14.6B Auto Catalyst and 2) Emerging $60M Fuel Cell Catalyst Markets

90+% TWC Slurry

Production

TWC Test & Design

Formulation

4 Big Industrial FC Catalyst Producers

#1 $14.6B

#2

Fuel C

ell C

ata

lyst

by 2

04

0

http://www.catalysts.basf.com/





HDV - Heavy Duty On-Road

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2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Mill

ions

KGP: Heavy Duty (HDV) On Road - Sales ForecastChina N.America EU Japan ROW

KPG HDV Off Road

Source: KPG HDV On Road

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

201

5

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

202

1

2022

2023

2024

2025

HDV ON-Road Engine Size (CC's)

China N.AmericaEU JapanROW Global

Global Ave Displacement• 6-11 liter average size

displacement depending on region

KPG HDV On Road 2018N. America + Mexico

China

Europe

Loadings are ~1g PGM’s/literDiesel Ratio: 75% Pt / 25% PdUSA Ave. 9.9L = 7.4g Pt / HDVEU Ave. 9.0L = 6.75g Pt/ HDV


LD versus HD FCEV’sPt (000's Toz)

2018 Surplus 750

2025 Forecast Pt Demand

Diesel LDV AutoCat 900

HDV On Road AutoCat 491

Diesel LDV AutoCat 1664

LDV Gas AutoCat 590

Hybrids AutoCat 154

Other AutoCat 272

Total 4,071

2025: Loadings 0.15 g/kW73% HDV Diesel On-Road Penetration –or-4% of LDV Gasoline Penetration of FCEV’s.

2030 loadings will reduce to 0.10 g/kW so that we can get 100% HDV On-Roads and have additional Pt for Stationary and other applications.

HDV's 2025 3,712,701 LDV's 2025 115,000,000

AutoCat Pt Grams/HDV 7 AutoCat Pt Grams/LDV 1

HDV EV Motor kW 200 LDV EV Motor kW 95

FCEV Pt Grams/kW 0.150 FCEV Pt Grams/kW 0.150

FCEV Pt g/HDV 30.0 FCEV Pt g/LDV 14.3

Net FCEV Pt g/HDV 23.0 Net FCEV Pt g/LDV 13.3

Assume 2M Toz Surplus 2,000,000 Assume 2M Toz Surplus 2,000,000

Heavy Duty FCEV's Max. 2,704,261 Light Duty FCEV's Max. 4,694,189

HDV On Roadv Penetration 72.8% Light Duty FCEV Penetration 4.1%

Heavy Duty FCEV Max. Penatration Ligh Duty FCEV Max. Penetration









Hydrogen Economy


You think that was Crazy?Let’s talk New Energy – The Power Grid Of The Future and The Role Of PGM’s

• California is touted as the Power Grid Of The Future.

• In-State Coal is now Zero for the past decade.

• Renewables >40% of overall Supply.

• Renewables: Hydro-Electric, Thermal, Bio-Mass, Wind and

Solar.

• Balance of Conventional Power Grid is Natural Gas based.

IPMI Auto Catalyst & Fuel Cell Seminar April 5, 2019 Slide 61 https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity

¢8.6

¢9.1

¢10.0

¢8.2

¢7.8

¢15.7

¢29.4

¢18.9

¢9.7

¢9.1

¢10.0

¢9.2

¢9.4

¢10.1

¢11.3

¢8.2

¢7.8

¢10.0

¢7.5

¢10.6

¢10.8

¢9.7

¢10.2

¢7.5

¢8.7¢11.2

¢10.7

¢9.5

¢8.8¢10.2

¢11.3 ¢11.5

¢9.3

¢9.6

¢10.1

¢8.3

¢8.3¢9.6

¢10.1¢9.0

¢13.7

¢12.2

¢15.3

¢16.3

¢16.1

¢16.6

¢15.6

¢12.2

¢9.6

¢22

Electricity Costs by State $/kW

https://www.chooseenergy.com/electricity-rates-by-state/


USA Power Sources 1950 - 2016

Coal

Natural Gas


California Power Sources Today

Natural Gas

Out-Of-State Imports

Nuclear

* Thermal* Wind & Solar


California: The Duck Curve


California: The Duck Curve


Power Generation Issues

• Other than a dozen smaller new Peaker Plants that quickly can be turned on and off, most of the natural gas generators and power plants take days, if not weeks, to turn on and off.

• Can respond to power grid swings quick enough.

• Solar and Wind have time of day influences.

• Due to oversupply of total energy into the grid, renewable sources (Solar and Wind) are curtailed often during the peak daytime hours. We are giving away renewable energy after expending CapEx to install.


CA Power Generation Issues

Nuclear

Out-Of-State Imports

Hydro-Electric

Natural Gas

Solar

Geothermal


California Power Grid Renewable CurtailmentsCalif. Intendent System Operator (ISO)

Summer California is running near peak, but spring, winter and fall have significant renewable curtailment.

Billion Dollar Challenge: How can we balance Renewable power generation?

20

17

Sum

mer

Low

Curt

ailm

ent

20

16

Sum

mer

Low

Curt

ailm

ent

20

18

Sum

mer

Low

Curt

ailm

ent


ICEPAG 2017 @ University California, Irvine

3MW Technology already demonstrated in Germany, and USA .


Power Grid Strategies (Precious Metals Impact)

1. More Solar and Wind (Solar PV today ~100M Toz Ag/year today)

2. Decentralize the Grid: More Localized Stationary FC Systems – Micro Grids (More Pt and Pt/Ru)

3. Smart Chargers – Charge BEV’s/PHEV’s at non-peak hours

4. Ramp FCEV’s Gated by Platinum Availability (11M FCEV’s in 2050 @ 0.1g/kw) = 3.3M Toz of Pt. LDV FCEV’s Only 3.3M Toz)

5. Daytime Renewables to Generate Green Hydrogen – “Green Electrolosys”

• Power To Gas Electrolosys (PEM’s use Pt)

6. H2 Storage in Existing Natural Gas Lines (4%-6% H2 composition) has already been tested. (Pd Permeable Films could be used)

• Gas Pipeline corrosion and lifespan is a downside.

7. H2 Storage in Salt Caverns – need a big tank, put it in the ground.

8. Reservoir Daytime Refilling – Hydro-Electric During The peak demand intervals.

9. Flow Battery Technology on multi-GW Scale

Documents

Precious Metals 101 · 2019. 8. 3. · Global Market Introduction Present Mass Market IPMI Auto Catalyst & Fuel Cell Seminar April 5, 2019 Slide 26