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PRE-ASSESSMENT OF TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
ESTABLISHING A METHODOLOGY FOR PERFORMING COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ITS INVESTMENTS
Finn Krenk
Danish Road Directorate
The need for pre-assessments
• DRD is expected to justify the investment in ITS C/B
• DRD must prioritize different ITS projects - and ITS projects against traditional measures
• A uniform and consistent methodology is required
• We need to know the effects of different measures
• We want to increase the knowledge of effects, benefits and costs of ITS in Denmark
Scope and background
Scope:• To be able to carry out C/B analyses for ITS• To establish consensus about a common
method
Background:• A general framework for C/B-analyses – MoT• Danish and international studies of costs and
benefits of ITS
Framework for C/B analyses
• Formulate the problem and set up solutions
• Describe reference situation and selected solutions
• Calculate effects in “quantities”
• Calculate value of the effects
• Calculate the net present value, internal interest and benefit/cost ratio
• Describe verbally the not quantified effects
• Arrange the results in a form
Reference situation
Reference situation = ”do nothing scenario”
Costs and benefits: With project - without project
Problems might arise if:
• ITS project in connection with a road work
• ITS project is a part of a new constructed road
• A traffic information service is add-on to existing services
• A TMS is add-on to existing TMS’s
Traffic management and effects
• The most important types of traffic management systems are selected
• Fact sheets are worked out for these
• Guidance are given on which effects should be included in the C/B analysis
• The study describes a number of methods to calculate the effects of ITS applications
Ex.: Fact sheet for Variable speed harmonisation
Type of effect Size
Accidents Reduction in number of accidents with personal injuries on 15-25%. Reduction in number of accidents on 25-28% (1). Reduction in number of accidents on motorways up to 30%
Time gain Average speed reduction on 5-10 km/h on motorways, and totally time gain as a result of lesser accidents
Pollution -
Potential indicators: - Bad traffic flow.- Frequent queues.- Many rear end collisions.- Bad sight.- Many drivers without local knowledge.- Special needs, e.g. road works, special weather conditions, accidents, etc.
Relevance of the parameters
0 = Not relevant
1 = Less relevant
2 = Relevant
3 = Very relevant
Parameters in the C/B analysis
Costs
User effects
Other effects
External effects
The value og being informed
The drivers find it of great value to be informed!
• Traffic information is a big part of ITS systems
• It is important to quantify the drivers value of being informed e.g. by using:- Revealed preference studies- Stated preference studies
• Study from TØI: In Oslo ½ €/trip
• DRD
• Probably best to try different methods
Results for Queuewarning
NutidsværdiMarkedspriser
(mio kr.)
Offentlige omkostninger
Etableringsomkostninger-3,86
Restværdi-
Driftsomkostninger-3,74
Samlet-7,60
Brugereffekter
Tid3,85
Kørselsomk.-
Trafikinformation-
Samlet3,85
Eksterne effekter
Uheld5,50
Andre -
Samlet5,50
Øvrige konsekvenser:
Afgifter0
Skatteforvridning-1,43
Samlet-1,43
Samlet nettonutidsværdi:0,31
Intern rente (%)7,8
B/C - faktor1,04
Conclusion
• The general methodology guidelines outlined by the Ministry of Transport and Energy can be applied for evaluating ITS investments
• There is a lack of knowledge of the effectiveness of ITS investments
• There is great uncertainty regarding how drivers valuate traffic
Recommendations for further work
• Monitor international experiences regarding effects and C/B analyses
• Work out evaluation of Danish ITS projects
• Provide data regarding how accidents/incidents effect travelling time
• Analyze how road users value traffic information and services
• Update the method and get it available for the road authorities