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PRAPARE Risk Stratification Learning Collaborative
© 2019. National Association of Community Health Centers, Inc., Association of Asian Pacific Community Health Organizations, Oregon Primary Care Association. PRAPARE and its resources are proprietary information of NACHC and its partners, intended for use by NACHC, its partners, and authorized recipients. Do not publish, copy, or distribute this information in part of whole without written consent from NACHC.
KICKOFF WEBINAR
May 20, 2019
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OVERVIEW OF SDH RISK STRATIFICATION MODELS
Rosy Chang Weir
Identify high-risk, high-cost patients
Understand reasons why patients are high-
risk, high-cost
Match patients to appropriate
interventions to provide higher quality
care
Inform how to allocate needed resources to care teams, including
prioritizing team workloads
Inform type of staff training needed for
managing care
Identify manageable panel sizes for care
managers/teams
3
WHAT WERE THE GOALS FOR SDH RISK STRATIFICATION?
4
WHAT WERE TARGET POPULATIONS USED FOR RISK STRATIFICATION?
Medicare and commercially insured
patients
High-cost (top 1-10 percent), medically complex patients
High-need patients (medically frail)
Adult patients who had two or more hospital
admissions within the preceding 12 months
Ambulatory adult patients continuously enrolled in global risk
Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial contracts
payer claimsPCP and nurse care manager review
of medical, social, and behavioral issues
health expenditures clinical data on acute utilization primary care team assessment
hospital databilled charges demographicspayer sourcecomorbidities
care team assessment patient interviews
administrative data on clinical and service utilization variables of
interest from clinical and financial data warehouse
medical neighborhoodsocial supports
medical complexityself management, coping skills, &
mental health
payer claimssocial needs
substance abusepsychological disorders
unstable housing
5
WHAT OTHER DATA SOURCES WERE INCLUDED IN RISK STRATIFICATION MODELS?
Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACGs)
Hierarchical Condition Categories
(HCCs)
Elder Risk Assessment
Chronic Comorbidity
Count
Charlson Comorbidity
Index
Minnesota Health Care
Home Tiering
6
WHAT EXISTING ALGORITHMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE RISK STRATIFICATION MODELS?
7
CHARACTERISTICS OF HIGH NEED HIGH COST PATIENTS
Example 1 1.Each month, the care team identifies the top 1
percent of high-cost patients for the previous twelve months
2.Evaluate each patient’s needs and assess whether patients will be amenable to care through patient interviews and a review of
medical records
3.A chosen subgroup is admitted to the care program
8
WHAT WAS THE SEGMENTATION PROCESS?
Example 21. Pull EHR and claims data, in addition to patient
hospital admission feeds
2. Use 138 variables across medical and pharmacy utilization, diagnoses, and sociodemographic
factors to predict a patient’s risk of hospitalization within six months
3. Segment high-risk patients into four subgroups
9
WHAT WAS THE SEGMENTATION PROCESS? (CONT’D)
Example 3:1. Risk-stratify patients using the Milliman Adjusted Risk Score, focusing on the top
decile of risk for future cost.
2. Pair the risk-stratification results with an internally developed risk assessment called the “Worry Score,” (diagnoses and control of chronic
conditions, recent acute care utilization, smoking status, age, and socioeconomic risk factors)
3.Select patients with a certain score into complex care management program.
Highly complex
High-risk
Rising-risk
Low-risk
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RISK STRATIFICATION GROUPINGS(NACHC RISK STRATIFICATION ACTION GUIDE)
Complexity
Planning Monitoring
Communication
Design care models and
target interventions for each risk
group
Whole population risk stratification (e.g., by certain
conditions)
Inclusion of SDH at initial stage?
Inclusion of SDH after initial risk
stratification?
11
DIFFERING METHODS:AT WHICH POINT SHOULD SOCIAL COMPLEXITY BE
INCLUDED IN RISK STRATIFICATION?
Inclusion of SDH at another stage?
• High Risk• Medium Risk • Low Risk
• High Risk• Medium Risk • Low Risk
Should different weights be used?Risk scoring
Should all SDH data be used?Development of clusters
12
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
Case management that involved primary care–
based care management by a PCP and nurse care
manager
Enhanced primary care and transitional care
Multidimensional patient assessments and care
planning
24/7 access to a multidisciplinary care team
Placement in primary care panelSpecialist disease management
Nurse care managementMental health services
Social support Pharmacy support
13
WHAT RESOURCES WERE PROVIDED TO HIGH RISK PATIENTS?
Importance of multiple sources of data – both quantitative and qualitative
Importance of clinical, patient, and stakeholder engagement to increase clinical relevance
Common targeted outcome: decrease in health utilization (spending) such as hospitalization and ED visits, comorbidities
Huge gap: inclusion of SDH data Effective models must include social and behavioral factors
14
SOME LESSONS LEARNED FROM RISK STRATIFICATION LITERATURE
To be continued…
“It is clear that effective tools, care models, and policies must extend beyond strictly medical approaches to address social and behavioral factors…
Payers and health systems…need to divide patients into groups that have common needs so that specific complex care-management interventions can be targeted to the people who are most likely to benefit.”
15
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF MEDICINE’S VITAL DIRECTIONS FOR HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE
(BLUMENTHAL ET AL., 2016)
16
OVERVIEW OF LEARNING COLLABORATIVE PRAPARE RISK
STRATIFICATION MODELSRosy Chang Weir
Siouxland Risk Stratification Approach*Medical Complexity
Risk Score:Chronic Disease and
Behavioral Health
High-Risk Conditions (5 or >=10, 2-4=3, 1=1)*
A1c% (9 or >=6, 7.5-8.9=3, 7-7.5=1)
Meds for High-Risk Conditions (8 or >=10, 3-7=3, 1-3=1)
*See second slide
PRAPARE Score Cost Score
ER visits last 12 mo. (3 or >=10, 2=5, 1=2.5)
Hospitalizations last 12 mo. (2 or >=10, 1=5)
PRAPARE responses used to add a SDOH risk score**
Highest SDOH risk score is 46
17*Format credit to RiverStone Health
Care Coordination Strategies
Siouxland’s care team strategy includes using the following care team members with patients in a more informed and targeted manner:-RN Health Coach/Case Manager-mainly medical issues-Clinical Pharmacist- multiple high-risk medications-BH Case Manager- mainly mental health issues-Community Health Worker-mainly SDOH issues-Some patients may require all 3-4 disciplines-High PRAPARE score will proactively be addressed in every circumstance, regardless of medical risk.
WCCHC PRAPARE Risk Stratification Approach
Chronic Disease Score
• Diabetes• Hypertension
PRAPARE Score
Cost Score(Access to actual cost
of care data)
• Primary Care Visits
• Behavioral Health Visits
• Emergency Room Visits
• Hospital Admissions
• Specialist visits
• Medications
• Diagnostics
• Labs
• No Shows, Canceled and
Rescheduled Appointments
• Home Visits and Outreach
• Enabling Services
• PRAPARE SCORE –
weighted scores given for each
positive answer in the
PRAPARE tool
18
Behavioral Health Score
• Behavioral Health Diagnosis• Substance Abuse Diagnosis
Compass Community Health PRAPARE Risk Stratification Approach
PRAPARE Data Elements for Adults
• Migrant Worker• Veteran• Number living in home• Housing Concerns• Neighborhood• School level completed• Employment Status• Insurance• Clothing/Food Insecurity• Transportation • How often interact with others• Stress• Incarceration Hx• Refugee• Feel Safe Where Live• Afraid of Partner
PRAPARE ScoreCommunity
Resource/Close-Loop Referral
• Did the patient and resource
connect (If not CCH will
reconnect with patient to
identify why)
• How often will they be meeting
• Does an internal referral need to
be made – LISW, Psych NP,
AOD facility
• Huddle with medical provider
• Document resource connection
successful and plan for patient
• Document number of No
Shows to appointments in office
and with resources
• PRAPARE Score = 1 point for
each positive answer
• 0-3 = Low Risk, as needed
follow-up/annually
• 4-6 = Moderate Risk, routine
follow-up at next visit (reassess
as needed), complete
community referral if needed
and close-loop on referral
• 7 or more = High Risk, routine
contact, follow-up (reassess at
each visit), complete community
referral and close-loop on
referral19
PRAPARE Data Elements for Pediatrics
• Age• Who lives with you• Where do you sleep• Do you feel safe where you live• What grade they are in at school• Do they have a job before/after
school• How do they get to school and
appointments• Do they have friends, how many,
how often they “hang out” or talk• Who helps you with homework• Do you worry about things at
home or at school• Have you ever gotten in trouble at
school? Have you ever had to speak with the law regarding something you’ve been involved in?
• Are you afraid of someone at school or in your home?
• Do you have clean clothes to wear• How often do you eat? What do
you eat?
FUTURE NEVHC PRAPARE Risk Stratification
Medical Risk Factors (NACHC’s Counting Chronic Conditions)
• Diabetes• Hypertension• Asthma• COPD• IVD
Social Risk Factors (PRAPARE Score)
Health System Utilization
(Cost Score)
• Frequency of visits (MD, Pharmacist,
BH, etc)
• Number of Medications
• Number of referrals
• Number of No Shows
• Number of Medications
• Number of Hospital Admissions
• Number of Emergency Dept. Visits
• PRAPARE SCORE –
weighted points given for
positive answer in the
PRAPARE tool. More weight
given to positive domains
with a higher predictive
impact on health outcomes;
e.g., homelessness.
*Draft scoring method needs to
be validated (included in slide
deck)
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Behavioral Health Risk Factors
• PHQ-2/9 Score• SBIRT Score
• Abnormal Breast Findings• Abnormal Cervical Findings• Alcohol Related Disorders• Anxiety Disorders Including PTSD• Asthma• Attention Deficit and Disruptive Behavior
Disorders• COPD• Contact Dermatitis and Other Eczema• Dehyrdation• Depression and Other Mood Disorders• DM• Exposure to Heat• Heart Disease• Hep B, Hep C• HIV• HTN• Lack of Expected Normal Physiological
Development• Other Mental Disorders, Excluding Drug
OR Alcohol Dependency• Other Substance related disorders• Otitis media and Eustachian tube disorders• Overweight and obesity• Sexually transmitted infections• Tobacco use disorder• Tuberculosis
Copyright, Starling Advisors LLC, 2017. All rights reserved*Slide deck on Risk Stratification Model here.
Charles B. Wang CHC Risk Stratification Approach
Callen Lorde Risk Stratification Approach
Callen Lorde Risk Stratification Approach
MO PCA:Planned Phase 2 Missouri CHC Risk Stratification
(Population Health Tool Azara DRVS)
Phase 1 Risk Stratification: Chronic
Disease Score
• Diabetes• Hypertension• Asthma• CHF• SMI• Other chronic conditions
Phase 1 Risk Stratification: Other
Factors Score
Phase 2 Risk and Added Criteria Score
(not included in Phase 1 due to data not being
available)
• Number of Hospital Admissions
• Number of ER visits• Claims information to allow
incorporation of cost• Medication possession ratio• SDOH utilizing PRAPARE as
the screening tool• Other criteria will be added as
additional data points become available and selected by clinician committee for inclusion
• Gender• Age
• Number of Medications
• Use of opiates
• Vital Signs (such as BP, BMI)
Phase 1 Risk Stratification: Lab
Values Score
• A1C• GFR• LDL• Etc.
COMMUNITY HEALTHNET RISK STRATIFICATION
Chronic Disease Score Mental Score PRAPARE Score Cost ScoreDiabetes Mental Health
DiagnosisPRAPARE Score-1 point for each positive answer in the PRAPARE Tool
Frequency of Provider visits
HTN Substance Use Diagnosis
Number of referrals
Hyperlipidemia Numbers of no showsCAD Number of cancelled
and rescheduled appointments
Number of ED visitsNumber of Hospital visits
26
STRIDE CHC
Medical + Behavioral Health + SDH (Housing, Uninsured) + Labs & Vitals + Medications
Stride PRAPARE Risk Stratification Approach
Chronic Disease Score
• Diabetes• Hypertension• Hyperlipidemia• ASCVD• CHF• CAD• Ischemic Stroke• Hemorrhagic Stroke • IVD• Afib• Persistent Asthma• COPD• Chronic NonMalignant Pain• Cirrhosis• Other chronic conditions • BMI >= 35 and < 40 (1) • BMI >= 40 and < 45 (3) • BMI >= 45 (5) • BMI Percentile 95+ (Z68.54) (3) • Systolic BP >= 150 (3) • Diastolic BP >= 90 (3)
PRAPARE Score
Cost Score – Work in Progress to ultimately
include ER Utilization/Drug Costs
• Anticoagulant Medications
• Chronic Opioid Therapy
• PRAPARE SCORE – 1 point given for each
positive answer in the PRAPARE tool for
housing insecurity, and uninsured
• We then take those that have completed a
full PRAPARE and identify social needs
within risk categories (i.e. of our high risk
who have completed a PRAPARE who
identified food or transportation
insecurities)
• Work in progress to eventually include the
5 major social areas we find most our
patients need assistance in (food/clothing,
housing, transportation, healthcare costs,
support system insecurity)
1
Mental Score
• Severe Mental Illness • Schizophrenia • Bipolar Disorder • Anxiety • Depression• Dementia & Mental • Autism Spectrum Disorders• ADHD• SED• Tobacco User • SAD/SUD• Illicit Drug Use Disorders
27
OTHER SDH RISK STRATIFICATION MODELS
Rosy Chang Weir
RiverStone Health PRAPARE Risk Stratification Approach
Chronic Disease Score
• Diabetes• Hypertension• Asthma• COPD• IVD
PRAPARE Score Cost Score
• Frequency of visits (MD,
Pharmacist, BH, etc)
• Number of Medications
• Number of referrals
• Number of Labs
• Number of No Shows
• Number of Canceled and
Rescheduled Appointments
• Number of Medications
• Number of Hospital
Admissions
• PRAPARE SCORE – 1 point
given for each positive
answer in the PRAPARE tool
28
Mental Score
• Mental Disease Diagnosis• Substance Abuse Diagnosis
PETALUMA HEALTH RISK MODEL
Inf luenced by AAFP and other r isk models ( l ike HCC condi t ions)
Incorporates r isks, chronic condi t ions, SDOH, medicat ions, ED ut i l izat ion, and admissions
Point Values: Risks = ½pt Chronic condi t ions = 1pt SDOH and ut i l izat ion mixedRisk Level” 0-2 points = Low Risk 3-4 points = Medium Risk >5 points = High Risk
29CENTER FOR CARE INNOVATIONS | 29Source: Raven E-Learning Webinar: Risk Stratification/Population Health, March 2019
SAN MATEO MEDICAL CENTER RISK MODEL (CERNER)
Risk index incorporates member-level data from EHR and other data sources, including:
Demographics
Claims data
Dx mapping using Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP)’s Clinical Classification Software (CCS)
Rx mapping using Multum ontology
Labs and vitals
BMI, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol values/ratios, and HbA1c
Socioeconomic features
CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)
Constructed features
Annual severity Source: Raven E-Learning Webinar: Risk Stratification/Population Health, March 2019
31
FOR REFERENCE ONLY
EXAMPLES OF RISK STRATIFICATION MODELS THAT INCLUDE SDH
CLINICIAN CONSIDERATIONS WHEN SELECTING HIGH-RISK
PATIENTS FOR CARE MANAGEMENT
Author, Program Haime et al.
Target population
Medicare and commercially insured patients 18 years or older participating in a primary care based, nurse-led CMP at Partners HealthCare (not for-profit health care system)
Targeted outcomes
Assist high-risk patients to better manage their health and healthcare utilization.
Segmentation Process
1. Upload prior year of paid claims to Optum Impact Pro software and generate chronic conditions, utilization patterns and a predictive risk score for future total medical expense.
2. Use an internally developed algorithm that incorporates an overall risk score, combinations of specific chronic conditions, and patterns of health care utilization to develop an initial list of the 5 percent of patients identified as high-risk.
3. Sort patients into a PCP specific list for clinical review. 4. PCP and nurse care manager dyad review list and select patients appropriate for CMP.
Subgroups 1.Appropriate for the CMP 2. Not appropriate for the CMP Exclusion criteria: Some interviewees excluded patients whose primary diagnosis was a psychiatric or substance abuse condition because they felt the CMP did not yet have the resources to meet these patients’ needs.
Data sources Hybrid: • Quantitative = billing claims • Qualitative = PCP and nurse care manager review of patients’ needs based on knowledge of patients and their medical, social, and behavioral issues.
Resources provided to subgroups
The CMP involved primary care–based care management by a PCP and nurse care manager. (Description of CMP was not the focus of this article.)
FINDING A MATCH: HOW SUCCESSFUL COMPLEX CARE
PROGRAMS IDENTIFY PATIENTS
Author, Program Hong
Target population
Patients at Cambridge Health Alliance (safety net delivery system)
Targeted outcomes
Identify care sensitive, high-risk patients to include in complex care programs.
Segmentation Process
1. Risk-stratify patients using the Milliman Adjusted Risk Score, focusing on the top decile of risk for future cost.2. Pair the risk-stratification results with an internally developed risk assessment called the“Worry Score.” The score takes into account diagnoses and control of chronic conditions,recent acute care utilization, and a list of modifiers including smoking status, age, and socioeconomic risk factors.3.Select patients with a certain score into their complex care management CCM program.
Subgroups 1.Selected for CCM program. 2.Not selected for CCM program.
Data sources Hybrid: • Quantitative = health expenditures, clinical data on acute utilization • Qualitative = primary care team assessment
Resources provided to subgroups
Authors did not describe specific resources provided to high-risk patients.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF INTENSIVE CARE
MANAGEMENT FOR HIGH-COST MEDICALLY
COMPLEX PATIENTS: AN EVALUATION OF NEW MEXICO’S CARE ONE
PROGRAM
Author, Program Horn et al.
Target population
High-cost (top 1 percent), medically complex patients at University of New Mexico’s Health Sciences Center (public teaching hospital)
Targeted outcomes
Evaluate the economic impact of Care One, an intensive care management program designed to target the most expensive 1 percent of patients in a university health care system.
Segmentation Process
1.Each month, the Care One team identifies the top 1 percent of high-cost patients for the previous twelve months. 2.Evaluate each patient’s needs and assess whether patients will be amenable to care through patient interviews and a review of medical records. 3.A chosen subgroup is admitted to the Care One program.
Subgroups 1.Selected for Care One program. 2. Not selected for Care One Group.
Data sources Hybrid: • Quantitative = HSC’s physician and hospital data, plus patient-specific data including billed charges, demographics, payer source, and comorbidities • Qualitative = care team assessment and patient interviews
Resources provided to subgroups
Patients receive the following services while participating in Care One: • Placement in primary care panel • Specialist disease management • Nurse care management • Mental health services • Social support • Pharmacy support
EFFECTIVE CARE FOR HIGH-NEED PATIENTS: OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING OUTCOMES, VALUE,
AND HEALTH
Author, Program Long et al.
Target population
High-need patients
Targeted outcomes
Identify key characteristics of high-need patients, a starter taxonomy to target care, and promising care models and attributes to better serve high-need patients
Segmentation Process
The authors did not identify a segmentation process. They did note that when identifying high-need patients, simply looking at cost alone is insufficient. They mentioned that functional limitations are key drivers of need and that because medical care is only a relatively small portion of health, identifying inadequate access to social and behavioural services is critical as well.
Subgroups The authors developed subgroups based on medical characteristics: 1.Children with complex needs 2.Non-elderly disabled 3.Multiple chronic 4.Major complex chronic 5.Frail elderly 6.Advancing illness The authors also include behavioural (for example,. substance abuse or cognitive decline) and social (for example, housing insecurity or community deprivation) factors not as individual segments but as factors that influence the care model or care team composition most likely to benefit high-need patients
Data sources The authors do not identify specific sources of data to use for subgroup segmentation. Based on the authors’ review of two taxonomies (which used claims data and clinical input) and an analysis of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data to show the importance of behavioural health risk factors, both qualitative and quantitative data could assist in identification of high need patients.
Resources provided to subgroups
The assessment identified four dimensions of focus that constitute a possible analytical framework for identifying successful care models 1. Focus of service setting – Settings include enhanced primary care and transitional care 2. Care attributes – Attributes include multidimensional patient assessments and evidence-based care planning 3. Delivery features – Features include 24/7 access to a multidisciplinary care team 4. Organizational culture – Features of the culture include use of multiple sources of data and leadership across levels
IDENTIFYING SUBGROUPS OF ADULT SUPER UTILIZERS IN AN
URBAN SAFETY-NET SYSTEM USING LATENT CLASS
ANALYSIS
Author, Program Rinehart et al.Target population
Adult patients who had an admission at DH (integrated safety net health care system) in 2014 and two or more admissions within the preceding 12 months
Targeted outcomes
Identify clinically meaningful and distinct subgroups, which can be used by providers to target resources to specific patients and reduce spending.
Segmentation Process
1. Identify super utilizers as adult patients (> 18 years) who had a hospital admission during the study period (January 1, 2014– December 31, 2014) and had two or more admissions within the preceding 12 months of this index admission. 2. Obtain administrative data on clinical and service utilization variables of interest from DH’s clinical and financial data warehouse. 3. Identify individual-level indicator variables that represented medical, mental health/substance use disorders (MH/SUDs), and social conditions influencing overall health to include in the latent class analysis. Also in the analysis are demographic and visit-level data reflecting admissions, outpatient utilization, and total charges. 4. Use the Elixhauser comorbidity software and the Clinical Classification Software system to create validated summary variables that group similar individual International Classification of Diseases (ninth revision) diagnosis codes. 5. Use Mplus 7.1 software to run the LCA with the 30 identified dichotomous indicators and create five high-risk patient subgroups.
Subgroups 1.Class 1: Alcohol/homeless 2.Class 2: Medical, MH/SUDs, homeless 3.Class 3: Medical 4.Class 4: MH/drug use, homeless 5.Class 5: Medical (lower with some MH/SUDs) Exclusion criteria: Small group of patients requiring nearly weekly admissions for emergent dialysis, as these admissions are not preventable through existing clinical financing options.
Data sources Quantitative: Administrative data on clinical and service utilization variables of interest from DH clinical and financial data warehouse
Resources provided to subgroups
Segmentation was completed for purposes of the study. The authors suggested the following resources to provide patients in each segment: • Class 1: Community based outreach services, or services embedded in an ED setting. Services should include multidisciplinary staff with a strong focus on housing, social support, and SUD services • Class 2: Optimized medical management with alternative primary-care models (e.g., ambulatory intensive care unit) • Class 3: Care coordination, patient navigation, or community health worker services embedded within the primary care setting • Class 4: Services either strongly aligned with or embedded within a formal MH treatment agency that also has co-occurring addiction expertise • Class 5: Screening in primary care and a strong linkage to MH and addiction services
DEVELOPING A REAL-TIME PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR
IDENTIFYING HIGH-NEEDS PATIENTS
Author, Program Brower et al.
Target population
Ambulatory adult patients at Atrius Health (independent physicians’ group) who are continuously enrolled in global risk Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial contracts
Targeted outcomes
Create a tool that determines patients’ risk levels and makes them easily visible to providers so that they can deliver needed care
Segmentation Process
Atrius developed a predictive modelling tool, the Clinical Risk Prediction Initiative. The tool takes the following steps to segment the high-risk population: 1.Pulls EHR and claims data, in addition to patient hospital admission feeds 2.Uses 138 variables across medical and pharmacy utilization, diagnoses, and sociodemographic factors to predict a patient’s risk of hospitalization within six months (low risk: < 20 percent; moderate risk: 20–50 percent; and high risk: > 50 percent) 3.Segments high-risk patients into four subgroups
Subgroups 1.Advanced illness 2.High risk 3.Complex rising risk 4.Risk prevention
Data sources Quantitative = Data from Atrius Health’s enterprise data warehouse, including clinical data from the Epic EHR; admissions, discharges, and transfers feeds; and payer claims
Resources provided to subgroups
Author did not indicate what resources Atrius Health provides to high-risk patients.
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