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Climate Change and its
Impacts on Food and Security
in Himalaya:
Responses and Adaptation
Prakash Tiwari
Professor of Geography
Kumaon University Nainital
Global food production may decline up-to 3%-16% by 2080 due to climate change
South Asia is expected to face decline in agricultural output up to the extent of 30% by 2080
Mountains communities, particularly in developing countries are highly vulnerable to food insecurity
Largest proportion of food insecure population live in mountains in developing countries
Himalaya being densely populated and underdeveloped, and characterized by subsistence economy and poor infrastructure is highly vulnerable to food insecurity
Food Security Scenarios:
FAO Perspective
Densely Populated
Underdeveloped
Livelihood Constraints
Subsistence Economy
Poverty
Rapid Urbanization
Resource Exploitation
Land Use Dynamics
Himalaya:
The Most Vulnerable Mountain Ecosystem
Natural
Vulnerability
Anthropogenic
Vulnerability
Young Mountains
Geo-tectonically Alive
High Altitude
Steep Slopes
High Drainage Density
Temperature
Variations
Increased Rainfall
Variability
Variability in Rainy
Days
Increase in Foggy
Conditions
Increase in Frosty
Conditions
Erratic Rainfall
Increase in Extreme
Weather Events
Forest and
Habitat Loss
Biodiversity Loss
Hydrological
Disruptions
Drying of Springs
Drying of
Streams
Reduced Water
Availability
Droughts
Slope Failure
and Landslides
Debris
Mud Flow
Riverbeds
Siltation
Flash Floods
Reduced Irrigation
Potential
Decline in Food
Productivity
Forest Fires
Loss of Traditional
Livelihood
Frequent Crop
Failures
Climate Change
Aspects
Ecosystem
Impacts
Climate Change Impacts: Triggering Risks
Gender
Implications
Outmigration
Natural
Risks Socio-economic
Impacts
Health Risks
Glacier Melting
GLOF
Food Quality
Food Habits
Consumption
Food
Availability
Food
Access
Food
Stability
Food
Utilization
Local Production
Food Import
Food Stock
Weather Variability
Price Fluctuations
Food Policy
Purchasing Power
Infrastructure
Food Distribution
Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at
all times, have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary
needs and food preference for an active and healthy life
Food Security: FAO Perspective
Parameters Status
Total Area 107.94 Sq km
Total Population 16080 persons
Male Literacy 51%
Female Literacy 45%
Land Holdings Less than 1ha More than 90 %
Per Capita Agricultural Land 00.17 ha/person
Cultivated Land (% of Total Area) 19%
Irrigated Land (%) 11%
Households Below Poverty Line 41%
Some Empirical Observations:
Kosi Headwater
Km0 3015
R. Kosi
Km0 200100
I N I AD
New Delhi
UttrakhandDehradun
Legend
Kosi Headwater
HaridwarPauri
Bageswar
Uttarkashi
Chamoli
Pithauragarg
Champawat
Almora
Nainital
Tehri Alaknanda R.
Kal
i R.
Kosi R
.
Pindar R.
Dehradun
T T
Gan
ga R
.
Tauns
R.
Yam
un
a R
.
Gomukh
Bhagirathi R.
Karn PrayagD
holi
R.
Man
dakin
i R
.
Rudra Prayag
Yamunotri
Gangotri
Dev Prayag
A R AK
H AN
D
NEPAL
CHINA
Ganga R.
Ramganga R.
US Nagar
U
UTTARAKHAND LOCATION MAP
Understanding Vulnerability of Food System
to Climate Change in Uttarakhand Himalaya
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
Impact on
Food
System
Degree of climate
variability and
change that Agro-
ecosystem
experiences:
Erratic Rainfall;
Droughts; Flash
Floods; Temperature
Rise; Frosting;
Hailstorm
Sensitivity to
climate Exposures:
Rain-fed Agriculture;
Poor Soils, Steep
Slopes; Traditional
Farming; Small Land
Holdings; Lack of
Extension Services;
Poverty
Ability to manage
negative impacts of
climate change and
take advantage of any
opportunities :
Information;
Technology; Literacy;
Livelihood Options;
Optimal Resource
Utilization
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Vulnerability is susceptibility of a system to disturbances and loss, determined
by exposure to impacts, sensitivity to perturbations, and the capacity to adapt
Years Rainfall (in mm)
Number of Rainy Days
Days of High Intensity Rainfall
Incidences of Droughts
Incidences of Flash Floods
Occurrence of Landslides
2001 2100 61 04 02 21 14
2002 2125 55 04 00 11 11
2003 2010 51 03 01 11 27
2004 2000 50 07 05 09 31
2005 1915 50 09 09 10 35
2006 1870 51 11 09 17 55
2007 1700 52 14 11 24 55
2008 2370 51 15 17 27 61
2009 1635 55 14 21 35 65
2010 2570 61 17 27 47 77
2011 1610 51 21 31 55 76
2012 1605 51 07 30 07 21
2013 2455 21 25 05 57 77
Average 1997 51 12 13 25 46
Observed Rainfall Variability and Extreme Weather Events: Observations from Uttarakhand State (2001 – 2013)
Years Loss of
Agricultural
Land (ha)
Irrigation
Channels
Disrupted (km)
Decline
in Agricultural
Production (%)
Road Network
Damaged
(km)
Food Import and
Supply Disrupted
(%)
2001 366 710 11 340 15
2002 350 700 14 347 17
2003 379 770 14 353 17
2004 425 690 07 302 12
2005 480 690 08 300 11
2006 475 711 17 370 19
2007 490 750 16 415 23
2008 500 800 18 430 17
2009 610 825 21 477 21
2010 755 980 25 557 37
2011 725 965 25 2711 35
2012 737 880 25 2175 35
2013 1157 1565 39 4579 67
Total 7449 11036 18 13356 25
Extreme Weather Events and Vulnerability of Mountain Agricultural System: Observations from Uttarakhand State (2001 – 2013)
Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Number
of
Villages
Villages
currently
facing
water
scarcity
Irrigated
Agricultural
Land (ha)
Decline in
Irrigated
Land
1981 2012 ha %
Below 1500 19 13 285 245 40 14
1500 – 1800 28 14 107 89 18 17
1800 – 2200 11 8 81 64 17 21
Above 2200 04 2 15 12 3 20
Total 62 38 488 410 78 16
Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Number
of
Villages
Agricultural
Production
(Kg/Ha/Year)
Decline in
Agricultural
Production
1981 2012 (Kg/Ha) %
Below 1500 19 755 566 189 25
1500 – 1800 28 591 396 195 33
1800 – 2200 11 404 327 77 19
Above 2200 04 250 190 60 24
Total/Average 62 500 375 125 25
Irrigation Potential, Food Production and Food Deficit Situations: Illustrations from Kosi Headwater
Altitudinal
Range (Metres)
Food
Production (Tonnes/Year)
Food
Demand (Tonnes/Year)
Food Deficit
Tonnes/
Year
%
Below 1500 531 921 390 42
1500 – 1800 234 1115 881 79
1800– 2200 192 630 438 70
Above 2200 54 228 174 76
Total 1011 2894 1883 65
Altitudinal
Range
(Metres)
Food
Insecure
Families
% Food
Insecure
Families
Food
Insecure
Population
% Food
Insecure
Population
Below 1500 531 15 2655 21
1500 – 1800 234 14 2771 19
1800– 2200 192 19 1795 27
Above 2200 54 27 759 25
Total 1011 19 7980 23
Decrease in Irrigation Potential Decline in Agricultural Production
Annual Food Deficit Situations Vulnerability to Food Insecurity
Livelihood and Food Security in Uttarakhand Himalaya: Reflections of Observations
Food Availability Food Access
% F
oo
d A
va
ilab
ility
% P
op
ula
tion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Micro-watershed
Number of
Villages
Total Population
Persons Engaged in Traditional
Livelihood Sectors (in 2001)
Persons Engaged in Traditional
Livelihood Sectors
(in 2013)
Total Decline in Rural Livelihood
(2001-2013)
% Decline in Rural Livelihood
(2001-2013)
Kosi Headwater 24 22085 6747 4437 2310 34.0
Vulnerability to Food Insecurity
Kosi Headwater
Food Security Situation (Population Vulnerable to Food Insecurity)
Above 25% Population 15-20% 10-15% Below 10%
Total Villages: 62
Resource Conservation
Livelihood Improvement
Income Generation
Poverty Reduction
Women Empowerment
Traditional Knowledge
Strengthening Institutions
Governance
Disaster Risk Reduction
Social Development
Ecosystem Management
Water Security
Livelihood Security
Food Security
Poverty Reduction
Women Empowerment
Traditional Knowledge
Strengthening Institutions
Governance
Disaster Reduction
Social Development
Water Management
Livelihood Diversification
Improving Food Production
Income Generation
Gender Sensitization
Participation
Institutions
Governance
Disaster Management
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Watershed Management: The Complementariness of Key Components
Inte
grat
ed
Wat
ers
he
d M
anag
em
en
t C
limate
Ch
ange
Ad
aptatio
n
Adaptive Watershed Governance: Connecting Dots
Integrated Climate Change Adaptation Governance
Social Components
Water Conservation
Integrated Governance Framework
Forest Conservation
Biodiversity Conservation
Resources, Implementation and Monitoring
Concept, Decision, Planning
Economic Aspects
Livelihood Improvement
Poverty Reduction
Economic Growth
Scientists, People, Public and Private Institutions and others
Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, Sustainable Development
Land and Soil Conservation
Natural Parameters
Natural Scientists, People, Institutions
Economists , People, Institutions
Components
Social Scientists, People, Institutions
Resources Access and Equity, Gender Equality,
Food Security, Traditional Knowledge, Institutions
Education, Sanitation, Hygiene, Health
People, Public, Private Institutions, NGOs, CSOs and Range of other Institutions
Governance
Knowledge and Expertise
Moving Ahead
Conservation Region
Fodder & Tea Farming
Horticulture & Fodder
Fuel wood, Fodder & Soil Conservation
Fuel wood, Fodder & Water Conservation
Fuel wood, Fodder & Medicinal Plants
Fuel wood, Tea Farming & Soil Conservation
Fuel wood, Tea Farming & Water Conservation
Fuel wood, Tea Farming & Medicinal Plants
Fuel wood, Water Conservation & Horticulture
Fuel wood, Horticulture & Tea Farming
Soil Conservation & Medicinal Plants
Tea Framing & Soil Conservation
Tea Farming & Medicinal Plants
Water Conservation & Medicinal Plants
Conservation Region
Source: Generated from Research
New Delhi Kosi Headwater
Integrated Climate Change Adaptation and Rural Livelihood
Governance Framework
Conservation Region
This clearly indicates traditional agriculture is not capable of generating adequate surplus particularly keeping in view rapid depletion of natural resources and the impending threat of climate change
The situation therefore calls for looking beyond the traditional agricultural system and generation of rural employment opportunities in off-farm and non-traditional sectors
Need to realize the ecological social and economic significance of Himalayan agriculture, and this would need policy Transformation
Climate services based on precise hydro-meteorological information
Agro-climatic Zonation and Agricultural Land Use Planning
Strengthening Institutional framework with Improved Articulation and Access
Conclusions: The Way Forward
Thanks for Your Kind Attention
