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WelcomeWelcomeSacramento Regional
Economic Vitality ConversationAugust 4, 2004
Made possible through generous support from Pacific Gas and Electric Company
A Joint Venture of
California State University, Sacramento
And the
Sacramento Area Commerce & Trade Organization
Dr. Robert Fountain, California State University, Sacramento
A Decade of Excellence
8,70
0
-11,
000
600
15,0
00
17,7
00
18,3
00
19,9
00 26,9
00 33,8
00
23,8
00
21,5
00
12,3
00
8,90
0
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Growth in Non-Farm EmploymentSacramento MSA
Data for the Sacramento MSA 1990-2003. Source: EDDSACTO-CSUS Sacramento Regional Research Institute, May 2004.
Employment Growth Rate ComparisonSacramento, California and US
1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
JUL
99
OC
T 99
JAN
00
APR
00
JUL
00
OC
T 00
JAN
01
APR
01
JUL
01
Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Growth compared to same month previous year. Source: Employment Development Department, US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Sacramento Sacramento
USUS
CaliforniaCalifornia
2.5%
3.0%
5.5%
4.8%
4.1%
3.2%2.8%
0.4%
-0.5%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.4%0.6%
0.7%
-0.4%
-0.4%
0.0%
0.9%1.0%
-3.3%-3.4%
-3.2%
-2.1%
-1.2%
-0.9%
1.0%1.5%
1.1%
0.8%
1.1%
0.5%0.4%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04
Sacramento Region
California
U.S.
-0.9%
1.3%
1.8%
2.0%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
2.9%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
San Jose PMSALos Angeles - Long Beach PMSA
San Francisco PMSAOakland PMSA
San Diego PMSAOrange PMSA
Sacramento PMSARiverside - San Bernardino PMSA
Employment Growth RatesMajor California PMSA'S
12 months ending July 2001
Non-agricultural wage & salary employment, change from same month previous year.Source: Employment Development Department.
Winners and Losers
Employment Increase
Percent of Increase
Total Nonfarm 187,842 100.0%
Local Government 35,675 19.0% Health Care and Social Assistance 19,775 10.5%
Construction 19,083 10.2% State Government 16,650 8.9%
Retail Trade 15,642 8.3% Financial Activities 15,633 8.3%
Information 5,358 2.9% Manufacturing 3,467 1.8%
(Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing) 2,983 1.6% Federal Government (18,983) -10.1%
Data for Sacramento PMSA, 1990-2003. Source: EDDSACTO-CSUS Sacramento Regional Research Institute Feb, 2004
Business Cycle Employment Growth in the Sacramento Region
-1.0%-0.8%-0.7%
-0.4%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%
0.2%0.3%
0.5%0.5%0.6%
3.7%
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Federal Government
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Primary & Fabricated Metal
Food & Kindred Products
Hotels & Other Lodging Places
Industrial Machinery
Computer & Office Equipment
Transportation & Public Utilities
Health Services
Construction
Local Education
Amusement, Including Movies
Business Services
California Shift in Economic Composition
1990-2000
Very high High Low Very LowLOS ANGELES-LB Transportation & Utilities Manufacturing, Services Construction
ORANGE Manufacturing, Trade, Finance Services Transportation & Utilities Government
OAKLANDConstruction, Transportation &
Utilities
MODESTO Manufacturing Trade, Construction Transportation & Utilities Finance, Services
SACRAMENTO Construction, Government FinanceTransportation & Utilities, Trade,
Manufacturing
SAN DIEGO Services, Government
SAN J OSE Manufacturing, ServicesTransportation & Utilities, Trade, Finance,
Government
RIVERSIDE-SB Construction, TradeTransportation & Utilities,
Government Services Finance
SAN FRANCISCOTransportation & Utilities, Finance,
Services Construction Manufacturing, Trade, Government
SANTA BARBARA Government Transportation & Utilities
SAN LUIS OBISPO Trade, Services, Government Construction Manufacturing, Trade, Government
Method: Location Quotient methodDr. Robert Fountain, January 2003.
Sectors of Concentration for California Regions
Data Source: California Economic Development Department
Employment Gains and LossesSelected Major Sectors
Sector Sacramento California Bay Area
Construction 4,742 27,800 2,000Prof. & Business Svcs. 2,200 62,900 -3,900Edu. & Health Svcs. 900 21,900 4,400Trade, Trans., & Util. 600 32,700 -3,400Manufacturing 0 -16,600 -5,900
Financial Activities -200 11,300 1,300Leisure & Hospitality -600 12,700 600Information -1,100 -6,900 -3,500Government -6,200 -48,100 -12,100
June 2003-2004
Sacramento Regional Research Institute, July 2004Data Source: Employment Development DepartmentNote: Growth reflects 12 months ending June 2004.
2.7
3.3
4.2
5.6
6.3
8.7
9.2
9.9
12.4
14.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Sacramento Regional Research Institute, December 2002.Data Source: US Census Bureau.Note: 2000 Census used for population figures.
San Francisco, CA
Los Angeles,CA
San Diego, CA
Seattle, WA
Portland, OR
Austin, TX
Denver, CO
Sacramento, CA
Phoenix, AZ
Atlanta, GA
New Houses per 1000 PeopleSelected PMSAs Nationwide
October, Year to Date
Median Home Sale Prices Major California Regions and the State, February 2004
$256,810
$275,000
$279,470
$390,010
$394,300
$479,540
$481,583
$566,200
$569,760
$0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000
Riverside-San Bernardino
Stockton-Lodi
Sacramento
Los Angeles-Long Beach
Calif ornia
San Diego
San Francisco
San Jose
Orange
Sacramento Regional Research Institute, April 2004 Data Source: California Association of Realtors
Sector Total Revenues EmploymentWholesale trade $243,430,576 1,993Architectural and engineering services $139,570,448 1,581Real estate $111,605,424 801Motor vehicle and parts dealers $87,307,768 999Monetary authorities and depository credit interme $80,458,056 424Building material and garden supply stores $78,118,816 1,188Truck transportation $75,664,232 614Miscellaneous store retailers $58,471,784 1,193Insurance carriers $56,892,040 331Legal services $49,933,832 557Sawmills $46,829,332 248Wood kitchen cabinet and countertop manufacturing $42,081,804 551Management of companies and enterprises $39,648,680 416Employment services $32,190,026 1,154State and local government electric utilities $30,494,804 59Accounting and bookkeeping services $28,879,588 511Gasoline stations $28,057,856 375Wood windows and door manufacturing $27,418,326 186Machinery and equipment rental and leasing $25,808,798 77Management consulting services $23,485,660 287Reconstituted wood product manufacturing $22,208,544 85Engineered wood member and truss manufacturing $21,004,544 171Other millwork- including flooring $15,068,131 212Commercial machinery repair and maintenance $14,807,888 151Custom architectural woodwork and millwork $14,495,547 78Plastics plumbing fixtures and all other plastics $13,546,847 72Postal service $11,869,142 155Logging $11,201,065 76Business support services $11,191,621 220Waste management and remediation services $10,351,798 79Asphalt paving mixture and block manufacturing $10,134,549 25Plastics pipe- fittings- and profile shapes $8,280,466 59Environmental and other technical consulting servi $7,805,066 63Specialized design services $4,858,457 48Foam product manufacturing $3,214,956 16Ready-mix concrete manufacturing $2,382,965 12
Data from IMPLAN model for the Sacramento CMSA using year 2003 housing construction data.Selected sectors with highest indirect impacts. Dr. Robert Fountain, March 2004.
Total Revenues and Employment in Support Sectors Created by New Housing Construction
Three Scenarios of Long Term Economic Development
1. Absorption into the Bay Area Economy 2. Central City of the Central Valley 3. Unique Technology Cluster
Three Scenarios for the Region
Convergences
1. The inter-dependence between transportation, land use, housing, and economic elements which determine our regional quality of life.
2. Economic changes underway will require active intervention to maintain our regional quality.
3. Workforce quality is the economic variable over which we have the most control.
4. Education is emerging as the consensus mechanism for achieving the desired economic outcomes.
%California 26.6
Marin County 51.3San Francisco County 45.0San Mateo County 39.0Contra Costa County 35.0Alameda County 34.9Yolo County 34.1Orange County 30.8Placer County 30.3San Diego County 29.5El Dorado County 26.5Los Angeles County 24.9Sacramento County 24.8Solano County 21.4Riverside County 16.6Sutter County 15.3Merced County 11.0Yuba County 10.3
Source: Year 2000 census dataDr. Robert Fountain, February 2003
Percent of Population with Bachelor's Degree or
Higher25 years or Over
Comparisons
of Educational Attainment
Sacramento Region California
Enrollment Per 1,000 Residents 95.8 57.0Graduates per 1,000 Residents 11.6 6.0
Higher Education Participation
What We Now Have:
1. An Integrated Picture of Transportation, Land Use, Environment, Housing, and Economic Vitality
2. A willingness to work on multi-jurisdictional
approaches, as long as they are seen as providing increased opportunities without loss of local political power.
3. Multi-faceted leadership with a regional
perspective:
SACOG SACTO Valley Vison Metro Chamber Education Leadership
What We Need Next
To Assemble and Enable this emerging integrated leadership with a focus on enhancing Economic Vitality
Susan FrazierCEO/Director
Valley Vision
Three sections:• Our Economic Engine • People and Community • Place
Breakdowns by geography and ethnicity
Valley Vision Quality of Life Report
Industry Clusters of Opportunity—Selection Criteria
Size Current Economic Impact# employees. Determines if an industry is a significant component of the cluster’s activity in the region
Average Annual Growth Rate
Job CreationGrowth in # employees. Shows how various components of the cluster have weathered market forces and their subsequent employment generation
Concentration Regional SpecializationConcentration of industries/sub-industries within region. Specialization generally reflects industry competitiveness.
Average Payroll per Employee
Job QualityHigh average payroll per employee relative to the regional average indicates a sector with relatively high productivity and value-added.
Economic Portfolio
x axis
Employment Concentration
y axis
Average annual employment growth rate
Size (# employees)
1994-2000
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Computer, Semi, Electronics
(32,191)
Innovation Services(56,922)
Construction(63,453)
Health and Biomedical
(74,776)
Miscellaneous Mfg
(43,974)
FIRE(54,420)
Transportation-Logistics-Warehsng
(18,634)Information & Telecom Services(16,170)
Ag and Processing
(34,323)
Visitor Services(77,941)
Sacramento regional economic portfolio by employment concentration, 2000 (vertical axis), Average Annual Growth Rate 1994-2000 (horizontal axis) and employment, 2000 (size of bubble).
Clu
ster
em
ploy
men
t con
cent
ratio
n re
lativ
e to
Cal
iforn
ia, 2
000
> 1.
0 =
mor
e co
ncen
trate
d th
an C
A
2000-2002
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
-8.0% -3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0%
Computer, Semi, Electronics
(28,568)
Innovation Services(55,89)
Construction(72,870)
Health and Biomedical(80,945)
Miscellaneous Mfg(40,211)
FIRE(58,154)
Transportation-Logistics-Warehsng(18,139)
Information & Telecom Services(19,599)
Ag and Processing
(31,891)
Visitor Services(80,551)
Clu
ster
em
ploy
men
t con
cent
ratio
n re
lativ
e to
Cal
iforn
ia, 2
002
> 1.
0 =
mor
e co
ncen
trate
d th
an C
A
Sacramento regional economic portfolio by employment concentration, 2002 (vertical axis), Average Annual Growth Rate 2000-2002 (horizontal axis) and employment, 2002 (size of bubble).
Assessing Clusters of Opportunity2000-2002
83110729465Growth(Ranked Highest to Lowest)
75981062134Conc.(Ranked Highest to Lowest)
10987654321Size(Ranked Highest to Lowest)
Trans, Logis & Whsng
Info & Telecom
Ag & Proces
sing
Innovation ServiceFIRECons-
tructionVisitor Svcs.
Health & Bio Misc. Mfg
Com-Semi-Elec.
Cluster Map (Sample)
Industries
Support Sectors
OccupationsHigher Level
Mid Level
Entry Level
Infrastructure
Employment Growth 1990 - 2002: 26,700
jobs (32%)Total Jobs: 97,100 Average Wage: Health and
Biomedical
Doctors' Offices
Emergency and Relief Services
Home and Residential Care
Services
Research Universities Specialized Clinics Biomedical
Research
Hospitals and Acute Care
Medical Equip & Supplies Mfg
Education and Training
Scientific Research and Development
Medical and Diagnostic Labs
Pharma and Medicine Mfg
Family and General Practitioners
Natural Sciences Managers
Medical Scientists
Biochemists and Biophysists
Medical and Clinical Lab Technicians
Psychiatric Technicians
Dental Lab Technicians
Biological Technicians
EMT's and Paramedics
Nursing Aides, Orderlies and
Attendents
Personal and Home Care
Aides
Physical Therapist Aides
Psychiatric Aides
Pharmacy Aides
Biomedical Engineers
Economic Vitality ConversationToday’s Focus
1. What state actions will have the most immediate positive impact on California’s economic recovery?
2. What state actions will result in the most significant long-term improvement to California’s economic competitiveness and comparative advantage?
3. How do we best structure an effective partnership between the regions and the state around economic strategy?