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1/24
CO2 Mitigation Technologies
in the Transportation Sector
Takeyoshi KATOEnvironmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaPhone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax: (+43 2236) 71 313 Web: www.iiasa.ac.at
Annual IEW Meeting18-20 June 2002 at Stanford University, USA
2/24
Contents Fuel economy and CO2 reduction cost of
current vehicles Fuel economy and CO2 reduction cost of
future vehicles Recent progress on prototype fuel-cell vehicles Estimates by the Office of Transportation Technologies
(OTT), U.S. DOE
Discussion Difference of fuel economy between test mode and
actual use
Conclusions Outlook on possible future work
3/24
Vehicle Type by Prime Mover Current Vehicle
Internal Combustion Vehicle (ICE) Electric Vehicle (EV) Alternative Fuel Vehicle (AFV)
CNG, E85, M85, etc. Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
Toyota Prius, Honda Insight, Honda Civic, etc.
Future Vehicle Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) => commercial in
2003 (?)
4/24
0.1
1
10
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
Fuel
eco
nom
y (k
m/M
J)
EV
AFV
HEV
ICE
累乗(EV)累乗(HEV)累乗(AFV)累乗(ICE)
Fuel Economy of Current Vehiclesmeasured according to Japan 10.15 test mode
1 km/MJ (gasoline) = 82 gallon/mile = 2.87 L/100km = 34.8 km/L
5/24
measured according to Japan 10.15 test mode
10
100
1000
10000
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
Driv
ing
rang
e (k
m/c
harg
e)
EVAFVHEVICE
Driving Range of Current Vehicles
6/24
CO2 Coefficient of Fuels(electricity: US generation mix, 1998)
Sources: 1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results”, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Gasoline Dieselfuel
CNG LPG Ethanol(E85)
Electricity
Fuel type
CO
2 co
effici
ents
(g-
CO
2/M
J)
1
1
1 1
1
2
7/24
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
CO2
emis
sion
(g-
CO2/
km)
EVAFVHEVICE
CO2 Emission of Current Vehicles
(electricity: US generation mix, 1998)
8/24
Commercial Hybrid Vehicles (HEVs)
Honda (http://www.honda.co.jp)
Toyota (http://www.toyota.co.jp)
Nissan (http://www.nissan.co.jp)
Insight (1999) Tino (1999)Civic (2001)
Prius (1997, 2001) Estima (2001) Crown (2001)
9/24
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
Red
uctio
n of
CO
2 em
issi
on
(g-C
O2/
km)
EV
AFV
HEV
Reduction of CO2 Emissionsrelative to same model with internal combustion
engine
10/24
Calculation of CO2 Reduction Cost
• Assumption• Annual mileage = 15,000 km/yr
• Annualization factor = 10 %/yr
• Fuel price in the U.S. in 2000
• Maintenance cost is not considered(same between ICE and other vehicles)
CO2 reduction cost
= [US$/ton]increase of annual cost
reduction of annual CO2 emission
11/24
10
100
1000
10000
100000
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
CO2
redu
ctio
n co
st (
US$
/t-C
O2)
EV
AFV
HEV
CO2 Reduction Cost of Current Vehiclesrelative to same carline vehicle with internal combustion engine
Toyota Crown: 56Honda Civic: 662
Nissan Tino: 802
Toyota Estima: 111
12/24
CO2 Reduction Cost of Future Power Plants with CO2
CaptureRelative to same type plant without CO2 capture
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700Net power output (MW)
CO
2 re
duct
ion
cost
(U
S$/t
on) Coal IGCC
Coal PCNG CC系列4系列5系列6 average of Coal PC
average of NGCC
average of Coal IGCC
13/24
Mercedes Benz Fuel Cell Sprinter (2001)
Ford Focus FCV (2001)
Honda FCX-V4 (2001)
market in 2003
Toyota FCHV-4 (2001)market in 2003, (80,000
US$)
Volkswagen Bora (2002)
Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCV)
14/24
Information available in“Program Analysis Methodology, Quality
Metrics”Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT), U.S. DOE
Vehicle Type (light-duty passenger cars) Large Car, Small Car, Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV), Minivan, Pickup Truck
Prime Mover Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Advanced Diesel (A-diesel), Flex Alcohol (Flex) Fuel Cell – Hydrogen (FC-H2), Fuel Cell – Gasoline (FC-gasoline) Spark Ignition Direct Injection (SIDI), Electric vehicle (EV) Hybrid Electric Vehicle – 2x fuel economy (HEV 2x) and 3x fuel economy (HEV 3x)
Fuel Economy Vehicle Cost Maintenance Cost Status Year (initial [2000~2017] and 2030)
15/24
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
Vehi
cle
cost
(10
00US$
)
EVAFVHEVICE
0.1
1
10
100 1000 10000Curb weight (kg)
Fuel
eco
nom
y (k
m/M
J)
EVAFVHEVICE
Fuel Economy and Cost of FCV in 2030 Estimated in Program Analysis Methodology by
OTT/DOE
DOE estimates
DOE estimates
Fuel Economy Vehicle cost
16/24
Price and CO2 Emission of Hydrogen
•Production method• Methane Reforming• Gasification (Biomass, Coal, MSW)• Electrolysis (Alkaline, PEM)• Solar Energy
•Location• Central or Distributed station• On-board
•Transportation• Pipeline or Truck
17/24
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
CMR, pipe CMR, pipe,w/CO2 rem
CMR, truck CMR, truck,w/CO2 rem
Onsite MR
Hyd
rog
en
pri
ce (
US
$/G
J)
station tank and pump
station dispenser
station labor
station storage
station compressor
electricity
truck transport
liquidification
local pipleline
central pipeline
CO2 deposition
CO2 removal
reforming plant
natural gas
Estimate of Hydrogen Retail Price
Source: The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the literature (draft), Edgar Hertwich and Anders Stroemman (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
12.8 US$/GJ
18/24
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Gasoline Dieselfuel
CNG LPG Ethanol(E85)
Electricity H2 pipe H2 pipew/CO2capture
H2 truck H2 truckw/CO2capture
Fuel type
CO
2 co
effici
ents
(g-
CO
2/M
J)Estimates of CO2 Coefficient
Sources: 1. Argonne National Laboratory, “GREET 1.5 - Transportation Fuel-Cycle Model, Volume 1: Methodology, Development, Use, and Results”, 1999 2. IEA Statistics, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, 1971-1998, 2000 Edition, OECD, 2000 3. Norwegian University of Science and Technology,”The Environmental Assessment of Direct Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles - An analysis of the literature (draft), 2002
1
1
1 1
1
2 3
3
3
3
19/24
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
SmallCar
LargeCar
SUV Minivan Pickuptruck
Vehicle type
CO2
redu
ctio
n co
st (
US$
/ton
) FCV-H2 HEV 2x
light heavy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
SmallCar
LargeCar
SUV Minivan Pickuptruck
Vehicle type
CO2
emis
sion
(g-
CO2/
km)
FCV-H2 HEV 2x ICE (conv)
light heavy
CO2 Reduction Cost of FCV and HEV
(15,000 km/yr in 2030)CO2 emission
CO2 reduction costrelative to ICE vehicle
Source: “Program Analysis Methodology, Quality Metrics”, Office of Transportation Technologies, U.S. DOE
20/24
DiscussionProblem in using test mode data for new type vehicles because of different equipment from conventional ICE vehicleFor example, in case of HEV and EV
Battery discharge during long time stop or no use
Regenerative braking system additional factor for fuel economy recoverable kinetic energy depends on actual driving pattern
21/24
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005model year
actu
al /
(10
.15
mod
e)
gasoline : AT/CVTgasoline : MTdiesel
priusestima HEV
Comparison of Fuel Economy Between Actual Use and Test
Mode
Source: http://auto.ascii24.com/auto24/e-nenpi/ranking/ranking_index.html
22/24
Conclusions CO2 reduction cost of commercial HEV
56 ~ 800 US$/ton-CO2 (15,000 km/yr)
CO2 reduction potential of FCV is higher than HEV
HEV might be more cost effective for CO2 reduction than FCV in the medium run (2030)
CO2 reduction cost of vehicles could be smaller in large vehicles (SUV, Minivan)
CO2 reduction cost of future vehicles might be comparable to that of central power plant with CO2 capture technology (20 ~ 120 US$/ton-CO2)
23/24
Outlook on Possible Future Work
Cost and CO2 emission of hydrogen
production and distribution
Evaluation of fuel economy in actual vehicle
use Evaluation for other regions in the world
(CO2 emission of electricity, fuel cost, etc.)
Assessment by using a global energy model
24/24
A tool for collecting and analyzing detailed data on carbon mitigation technologies
Containing detailed technical, economic and environmental characteristics as well as data on innovation, commercialization and diffusion in some 2400 entries
IIASA’s CO2DB Database