ppt on black swan by hussen taleb

8/11/2019 ppt on black swan by hussen taleb

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Presented by:

Shradha pereira.

Nikhil Burboze.

Roshal Lopes


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Name of the book: The Black Swan.

Author name: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Penguin Group.

Year of publication: 2007

Number of pages: 444

Book Profile


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Core Concept Of Book

A Bird called Black Swan.

It relates to human lives.

Drastic impact on our life.

Highly unpredictable.

Learning from Black Swan.


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Do not have high prediction motives.

Best utilization resources.

Attaining organizational objective.

Counted risk should be taken.

Management Learning From Book


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Chapter Wise Description

Chapter 1The Apprenticeship of an Empirical

Skeptic:

The illusion of understanding.

perceivation of different people about the same situation.

Chapter 2YevgeniasBlack Swan:

Experts cannot predict the socioeconomic future, but they

can confidently explain the past.

Chapter 1

Chapter 2


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Chapter 3The Speculator and the Prostitute:

Scalable variables (for example, wealth and stock returns.

No scalable variables (for example, human height and

weight)

Chapter 4One Thousand and One Days, or How

Not to Be a Sucker:

The timing and nature of Black Swans are inherently

unpredictable.

Positive Black Swans tend to develop slowly .

Chapter 3

Chapter 4


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Chapter 5Confirmation:

A tendency to look for evidence that supports views.

Chapter 6The Narrative Fallacy:

A false sense of understanding.

Stories constructed around Black Swans.

Stories constructed around Black Swans

Chapter 5

Chapter 6


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Chapter 7-Living in the Antechamber of hope:

Black Swan deniers seek a steady stream of modestly

positive investment returns, hoping that no negative BlackSwan will intervene.

Huge returns from positive and negative Black Swans.

Chapter Giacomo Casanovas Unfailing Luck: The

Problem of Silent Evidence.

Chapter 7

Chapter 8

Professions involving losses and an extreme survivorship

partiality.

Professions began with an extreme lucky streak


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The uncertainty encountered in real life .

Black Swans are events that we do not envision and

for which we cannot assign probabilities.

Chapter 9The Ludic Fallacy, or the Uncertainty of

the Nerd

Chapter 9

Chapter 10 The Scandal of Prediction

Human beings are consistently overconfident about

how much they know.

People tend to underestimate (overestimate) severely

the probability of a future.


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Chapter 11How to Look for Bird Poop

Discovery and diffusion of new things depends mostlyon luck, severely limiting predictability.

Even for systems with specified initial conditions and

rules, complexity practically precludes accurate

prediction

Chapter 12

Chapter 11

Epistemocracy a Dream.

People do not naturally learn from the errors

in their past predictions.

There is no difference for practitioners

between inborn.

a

People do not naturally learn from the errors in their

past predictions.

There is no difference for practitioners between

inborn.


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Chapter 13Appelles the Painter, or What Do

You Do if You Cannot Predict?

Do not listen to economic forecasters

History does not reveal its mind to us we need to

guess whats inside of it.

Chapter 14From Mediocristan to Extremistan,

and Back.

Everything is transitory.

fewer but more severe crises.

Chapter 13

Chapter 14


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Chapter The Bell Curve, That Great

Intellectual Fraud:

The Gaussian and Mandelbrotian.

A Thought Experiment on Where the Bell

Curve Comes From

Chapter 16The Aesthetics of Randomness:

Chapter 15

Chapter 16

Power laws, such as those that describe fractals,

generate distributions that fit empirical scalable variabledata.


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Chapter 17Lockes Madmen, or Bell Curves in

the Wrong Places.

All our statistical tools are obsolete [or]meaningless.

A theory is like medicine (or government)

Chapter 17

Chapter 16 The Uncertainty of the Phony.

Unlike the uncertainties of games and quantum

physics, the uncertainties of socioeconomic and weather

variables do not on average cancel. We cannot predict

these latter variables


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Chapter 19Half and Half, or How to Get Even with

the Black Swan

Worry less about small failures, more about large,

potentially terminal ones.

Chapter 19


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Indian companies where these core

concepts have been applied

26/11 terrorist attack on Taj HUL's

Godrej Industries


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How Black Swan concepts will apply

to St. Johns vision

Institution should concentrate on quality of education.

As our institution is new future planning should be well

counted but predictions should be supported by facts and not

rumors.

Students should be trained in such a way that, when they

enter industry, that should light up the name of institution

with their qualities and knowledge application skills.

Leaving apart the trends of our B schools, St.John should

make their own way towards ultimate success.


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Conclusion

Black swan teaches us to be good at facing different situation

in our personal and corporate life.

Management style should be assertive and optimistic.

Should not believe in rumors of future but live for present.

Decision should be risk free but, counted and secure risk

should be involved in it.


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THANK YOU

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ppt on black swan by hussen taleb