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AUTOMOBILE DESIGNAUTOMOBILE DESIGN

Year 2010 and BeyondYear 2010 and Beyond

AUTOMOBILE DESIGNAUTOMOBILE DESIGN

Year 2010 and BeyondYear 2010 and Beyondbyby

Robert Q. RileyRobert Q. Riley

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WORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATION

Greater Demand &Greater Demand &

Less ResourcesLess Resources AcceleratedAccelerated

GreenhouseGreenhouse

EmissionsEmissions

Environmental &Environmental &

Energy Trends =Energy Trends =Negative EconomicNegative Economic

ImpactsImpacts

DevelopingWorld = 300% Increase Between 1995 & 2020DevelopingWorld = 300% Increase Between 1995 & 2020

TREND IN WORLD CAR POPULATION

0

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

500000000

600000000

700000000

800000000

YEAR

World Car

Population

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CARS IN REST OF WORLD

CARS IN U.S.

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OPTIONS FOR REDUCINGTRANSPORTATION ENERGY USEOPTIONS FOR REDUCINGTRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE

TelecommutingTelecommuting

SelfSelf--Sufficient MicroSufficient Micro--

CommunitiesCommunities

Better Mass TransitBetter Mass Transit

IntelligentIntelligent

Transportation SystemsTransportation Systems

Behavioral/SocietalBehavioral/Societal InfrastructureInfrastructure

Improved Vehicle TechnologyImproved Vehicle Technology

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VEHICLE TECHNOLOGYVEHICLE TECHNOLOGYOPTIONSOPTIONS

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGYVEHICLE TECHNOLOGYOPTIONSOPTIONS

Improved Conventional Power System EfficiencyImproved Conventional Power System Efficiency

(VVA(VVA -- CIDICIDI -- VCRVCR -- Controlled Auto IgnitionControlled Auto Ignition -- CVTs)CVTs) Alternative FuelsAlternative Fuels

(Natural Gas(Natural Gas -- MethanolMethanol -- EthanolEthanol -- Hydrogen)Hydrogen)

Alternative Power SystemsAlternative Power Systems(Battery(Battery--ElectricElectric -- HybridHybrid--ElectricElectric -- Advanced BatteriesAdvanced Batteries -- UltracapacitorsUltracapacitors

-- Fuel Cells)Fuel Cells)

Design For Lower Transported MassDesign For Lower Transported Mass(Smaller , Lighter Vehicles(Smaller , Lighter Vehicles -- New Materials & ProcessesNew Materials & Processes -- HolisticHolistic

Approach to Design)Approach to Design)

Power SystemsPower Systems -- FuelsFuels -- MaterialsMaterials -- DesignDesign

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ELECTRIC VEHICLESELECTRIC VEHICLES

Good Torque CurveGood Torque Curve

No MultiNo Multi--RatioRatio

TransmissionTransmission

BiBi--DirectionalDirectional

Energy/Work LoopEnergy/Work Loop

Clean & EfficientClean & Efficient

BEVs PotentiallyBEVs Potentially

Cheap to BuildCheap to Build

Good Public ImageGood Public Image

Limited Range & SlowLimited Range & Slow

Recharge of BEVsRecharge of BEVs

Greater Mass &Greater Mass &

Complexity of HEVsComplexity of HEVs

Unfamiliar TechnologyUnfamiliar Technology

Costly R&D/StartupCostly R&D/Startup

Infrastructure CostsInfrastructure Costs

Costly & SpeculativeCostly & Speculative

Marketing EffortMarketing Effort

PositivePositive NegativeNegative

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BATTERY COMPARISONBATTERY COMPARISONSpecific EnergySpecific Energy

Wh/kgWh/kg

0 50 100 150 200Wh/kg

Lead Acid

NiCd

NiMH

Lithium

Polymer

Now

Potential

Specific CostSpecific Cost$/kW$/kW--hh

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Lead Acid

NiMH

NiCd

Lithium Polymer

Now

Potent ia l

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LITHIUM-POLYMER BATTERYCourtesy 3M Company

LITHIUM-POLYMER BATTERYCourtesy 3M Company

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HYBRID-ELECTRIC VEHICLESHYBRID-ELECTRIC VEHICLES

UltracapacitorsUltracapacitors FlywheelsFlywheels

BatteriesBatteries

CI & SI EnginesCI & SI Engines

Stirling EnginesStirling Engines

Turbine EnginesTurbine Engines

ConversionConversion

StorageStorage

0.4

200

2000

50

1000

20

0 500 1000 1500 2000

U-capacitor (far-

term)

Flywheel (far-

term)

Battery (mid-

term)

Specific Power(kW/kg)

Specific Energy (W-h/kg)

Storage CharacteristicsStorage Characteristics

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INTREPID ESX SERIES HYBRIDCourtesy Chrysler Corporation

INTREPID ESX SERIES HYBRIDCourtesy Chrysler Corporation

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FORD P2000 HYBRIDCourtesy Ford Motor Company

FORD P2000 HYBRIDCourtesy Ford Motor Company

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NEW PACKAGING & STYLINGNEW PACKAGING & STYLING

More CompactMore Compact

Packaging With NewPackaging With New

Powertrain DesignsPowertrain Designs

Exterior is ShrinkingExterior is Shrinking

Around the PassengerAround the Passenger

ZoneZone

UrbanUrban-- andand

CommutingCommuting--SpecificSpecificCars Can ReduceCars Can Reduce

Emissions & EnergyEmissions & Energy

DemandDemand

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CARS IN YEAR 2010 & BEYONDCARS IN YEAR 2010 & BEYOND

Hybrid Vehicles for Long TripsHybrid Vehicles for Long Trips

BatteryBattery--Electric Vehicles for Local TripsElectric Vehicles for Local Trips

New Downsized Personal TransportationNew Downsized Personal TransportationProductsProducts

OneOne--Box Vehicle DesignBox Vehicle Design

Fleet Comprised Mainly of ICE VehiclesFleet Comprised Mainly of ICE Vehicles

Burning Reformulated Gasoline & AlcoholBurning Reformulated Gasoline & Alcohol

Significant Inroads By..Significant Inroads By..