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EffShip

Background, structure and objectives of the EffShip project

Per Fagerlund, Bengt Ramne

ScandiNAOS AB

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Marine fuel price development

0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

800,00

1000,00

1200,00

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$/t

on

HFO 3,5% MGO 0,1%

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Fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

1122

1320

178 207 222

280

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

CO2 (Mt C) Fuel consumption

Mill

ion

to

ns

Annual Emissions / consumption

Road traffic

Aviation

Shipping

Source: Eyring et al. J Geophys Res 110 (2005) compiled by Erik Fridell IVL 2007

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NOx, SOx and PM emissions

8,3

2,2 2,1

0,71

0,0075 0,001

6,5

6

1,7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

NOx (Mt N) SO2 (Mt S) PM10

Mill

in t

on

s

Annual Emissions

Road traffic

Aviation

Shipping

Source: Eyring et al. J Geophys Res 110 (2005) compiled by Erik Fridell IVL 2007

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Emission legislation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

IMO NOx Technical code

NOx Tier II - 2011 (Global)

NOx Tier III - 2016 (NOx emission control areas)

g NOx/kWh

rpm

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• Project Effship is based on the vision of a sustainable and successful maritime transport industry – one which is energy efficient and has a minimal environmental impact.

• Specific project goals to achieve this include improving the efficiency of the ship machinery, introducing alternative marine fuels, using wind energy as complementary propulsion power and investigate transport system designs, as ways to reduce the emissions of CO2/GHG, NOx, SOx and PM in marine transports.

• The project will result in proposals for solutions with respect to maritime fuels, energy efficiency and emission reduction technology that will contribute to the fulfillment of EU’s and the Swedish Government’s climate goals of 20% more efficient energy usage, 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, a minimum of 10 % renewable energy in the transport sector in year 2020 and to fulfill and exceed upcoming international rules.

EffShip

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• Short term 2015/2016

– SOx, NOx

• Medium term 2020/2030

– SOx, NOx, PM, GHG

• Long term 2050 and beyond

– SOx, NOx, PM, GHG, Renewable fuels

EffShip - Perspectives

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EffShip Workpackages

Title Work Package leader

WP 1 Project Management SSPA/ScandiNAOS

WP 2 Present and future marine fuels Wärtsilä

WP 3 Exhaust gas cleaning DEC Marine

WP 4 Heat recovery S-MAN

WP 5 Energy Transformers Wärtsilä

WP 6 Wind, wave and sun SSPA

WP 7 Logistic analysis SSPA

WP 8 Demonstration of findings ScandiNAOS

WP 9 Final Report Future Projects ScandiNAOS

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Finally

• After fourty months of work, Effship has identified and described a number of proposals for sutainibility and economy for the shipping industry.

• Effship also propose a program for industrializing and implementing the proposals.

• One of the proposals – Spireth – is already under way – and more will come.

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Order of Magnitude – 99.9% marine fuel is oil based

– Biofuel of 1st and 2nd generation have no potential to substitute more than a fraction of the fossil oil used for marine fuel

– Energy recovery, engine and hull optimization has the potential to reduce marine fuel consumption 5%

– Sail have a potential to reduce the marine fuel consumption by approx 10% assuming todays fleet and speed

– Reduced speed has the potential to reduce marine fuel consumption by 60%

– Energy recovery, engine and hull optimization, sail and reduced speed have the potential to reduce marine fuel consumption by total 70%

– Energy recovery, engine and hull optimization, sail, reduced speed and the development of carbon neutral fuel will have the potential to make shipping fossil free

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3,50%

1,00%

0,10% 0,005%

0,001% 0,00%

0,50%

1,00%

1,50%

2,00%

2,50%

3,00%

3,50%

4,00%

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Where can we find alternatives to HFO?

Oil - Marine transport fuel

2,73%

Oil - Transport (non marine) fuel 19,68%

Oil - Industry consumption 2,96%

Oil - Other sectors 5,40%

Oil - Non energy use 4,12%

Gas 21,97%

Coal 27,15%

Biomass 3,66%

Solar heat 0,46% Hydro

6,13%

Wind 0,27%

Nuclear 5,06%

Geothermal 0,18% Biofuels

0,18%

Solar photovoltic 0,04%

Global energy use 2008 Total approx 140 000 TWh

http://www.bp.com

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North Europe SECA (Baltic Sea, North Sea and English Channel)

Without SECA rules With SECA rules Best guess 2010

HFO 18 000 000 7 200 000 Assuming 40% of the ships

will fit a scrubber

MDO/MGO 2 000 000 7 400 000 Assuming 30% of the ships will change to 0.1% MGO

Alternative fuel (LNG, Methanol)

5 400 000

Assuming 30% of the ships will change to a clean fuel that

is cheaper than MGO

Metric Tons fuel oil equivalents

Estimated Marine Fuel Market 2015

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North Europe SECA (Baltic Sea, North Sea and English Channel)

Without SECA rules With SECA rules Best guess 2013

HFO 18 000 000 100 000 Approx 10-15 ships will fit a

scrubber

MDO/MGO 2 000 000 19 820 000 Assuming 99% of the ships will change to 0.1% MGO

Alternative fuel (LNG, Methanol)

80 000

5 ships outside norway will operate on LNG

3 ships will operate on methanol

Metric Tons fuel oil equivalents

Estimated Marine Fuel Market 2015

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North Europe SECA (Baltic Sea, North Sea and English Channel)

Without SECA rules With SECA rules Best guess 2013

HFO 18 000 000 7 200 000 Assuming 40% of the ships

will fit a scrubber

MDO/MGO 2 000 000 7 400 000 Assuming 30% of the ships will change to 0.1% MGO

Alternative fuel (LNG, Methanol)

5 400 000

Assuming 30% of the ships will change to a clean fuel that

is cheaper than MGO

Metric Tons fuel oil equivalents

Estimated Marine Fuel Market 2025

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EffShip

11 600 000 000 kr

18 000 000 000 kr

6 400 000 000 kr

4 900 000 000 kr

Consequensies of SECA requirements (for Sweden)

Cost for bunker fuel in Sweden 2014 (domestic and international)

Cost for bunker fuel in Sweden 2015 (domestic and international)

Cost increase due to SECA rules

For comparison, Swedish budget for environment and nature conservation

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€ 10 500 000 000

€ 16 200 000 000

€ 5 700 000 000

€ 400 000 000

Consequensies of SECA requirements (in SECA area)

Cost for bunker fuel in SECA 2014 (domestic and international)

Cost for bunker fuel in SECA 2015 (domestic and international)

Cost increase due to SECA rules

EU budget for environment and climate change

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Annual fuel cost HFO (2014);

66 000 000 kr

Annual fuel cost MGO (2015);

101 600 000 kr

Fuel cost diff 2015-2014;

35 600 000 kr

Conversion cost scrubber;

55 200 000 kr

Conversion cost methanol;

50 600 000 kr

Conversion cost LNG;

165 600 000 kr

Consequensies of SECA requirements for a typical short sea roro vessel

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• Sjöfartstidningens nyhetsbrev #13 – Finnish fund for investments in exhaust

gas cleaning and alternative fuel

– € 30 000 000 for 2013

– Max 50% government finance

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Sustainable and successful maritime transport industry – one which is energy efficient and has a minimal environmental impact

• Sail

• Energy recovery

• Alternative fuels

• Exhaust gas cleaning

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Thank you