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selectsacramento.com
A REGION ON THE RISE:PERSPECTIVES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
J A N . 1 6 , 2 0 1 9
selectsacramento.com
selectsacramento.com
THANK YOU.
Barry BroomePresident & CEO
Greater Sacramento Economic Council
selectsacramento.com
@selectsac
Facebook.com/GreaterSac
selectsacramento
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.T h e E c o n o m i c s o f L a n d U s e
400 Capitol Mall, 28th Floor n Sacramento, CA 95814916.649.8010 n www.epsys.com
PERSPECTIVES ON HOUSING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Folsom Economic Development Corporation
REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS
PUBLIC FINANCE
LAND USE & TRANSPORTATION
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & REVITALIZATION
FISCAL & ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
HOUSING POLICY
PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS (P3)
PARKS & OPEN SPACE ECONOMICS
EPS
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 17
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
▪ Perceived fiscal dynamics of housing
▪ Contributions of housing to economic development initiatives:
– Cultivation of Key Labor Assets
– Support for Bricks and Mortar Retail
– Improved Project Economics
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 18
PERCEIVED FISCAL DYNAMICS OF HOUSING
$0Fiscally
Neutral
COMMON PERCEPTIONS
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 19
PERCEIVED FISCAL DYNAMICS OF HOUSING
▪ Fiscal Mitigation Measures
– Services CFD
– Fiscal mitigation payments
– Tax Sharing Arrangements
▪ Economic Development Contributions of Housing
– Cultivation of Key Labor Assets
– Support for Bricks and Mortar Retail
– Improved Project Economics
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
HOUSING CULTIVATES ESSENTIAL LABOR ASSETS
LABOR ASSETS
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 21
LINK BETWEEN JOBS AND HOUSING ACCESS
HOUSING CULTIVATES KEY LABOR ASSETS
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 22
KEY EMPLOYERS WITHIN THE CITY OF FOLSOM
FOLSOM’S EXPANSION POTENTIAL
Intel Corporation
6,000 Employees
Mercy Hospital
750 Employees
California ISO
600 Employees
350 Employees
SAFE Credit Union
350 Employees
Costco
300 Employees
Micron Technology
Source: City of Folsom; MuniServices LLC. Current as of Dec. 31, 2017
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 23
JOBS PER HOUSEHOLD IN FOLSOM
Source: United States Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics; California Dept. of Finance.
CITY OF FOLSOM
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 24
CITY OF FOLSOM HOUSING PIPELINES
8,500 Single Family Units
2,800 Multifamily UnitsFOLSOM PLAN AREA SPECIFIC PLAN
300 Multifamily UnitsTALAVERA RIDGE
275 Dwelling UnitsTHE ISLANDS
125 Dwelling UnitsIRON POINT SENIOR APARTMENTS
325 Multifamily UnitsTHE PIQUE
Over 13,000 New Dwelling Units Planned within
the City of Folsom
Source: City of Folsom Planning Department as of Dec. 2017.
HOUSING SUPPORTS EXPANSION AND ATTRACTION OF RETAIL USES
SUPPORT FOR RETAIL
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 26
THE CHANGING RETAIL LANDSCAPE
▪ Since 2000, the e-commerce share of retail sales advanced from just under one percent to about 9 percent in 2017, reducing demand for retail brick and mortar space.
▪ Not all retail is in decline. Consumer spending is bifurcated, with strong spending on luxury and discount goods.
▪ Vacancy rates in shopping centers with strong demographics, visibility, access, and a compelling tenant mix have been around 2-5 percent, while centers without these attributes have seen vacancy increase to 40-50 percent.
▪ Major retail centers like Folsom Palladio are investing in entertainment, dining, technology, and quality of place to remain competitive.
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 27
RETAIL SPENDING PATTERNS
Source: Citylab, “The 2018 Retail Apocalypse, in 6 Charts and a Map”.
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 28
HISTORIC RETAIL SQUARE FOOTAGE PER CAPITA
Source: CoStar; California Dept. of Finance.
CITY OF FOLSOM
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 29
FOLSOM PLAN AREA SPECIFIC PLAN RETAIL SUPPORT
11,000ANTICIPATED HOUSEHOLDS IN FOLSOM PLAN AREA SPECIFIC PLAN
500 – 800KRANGE OF RETAIL SQUARE FOOTAGE SUPPORTED BY FOLSOM PLAN AREA SPECIFIC PLAN
Source: CoStar; Ca Dept. of Finance; City of Folsom.
Retail demand is a direct result of estimated futurehousehold growth, consumer buying power and spendingpatterns.
ESTIMATED RANGE OF ANNUAL SALES TAX REVENUES$1.35+ M
LAND USE DIVERSITY IMPROVES PROJECT FEASIBILITY
PROJECT ECONOMICS
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 31
FEASIBILITY INDICATORS
Residential Office RetailLight
Industrial
COMPARATIVE RESIDUAL VALUE
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 32
OFFICE INVENTORY AND VACANCY RATES
Source: CoStar.
CITY OF FOLSOM
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 33
HOUSING AND LAND USE DIVERSITY
▪ Integration of appropriate levels of housing improves project economics:
– Balanced communities
– Land use flexibility
– Ability to underwrite lower performing uses – particularly in mixed-use contexts.
Residential Office RetailLight
Industrial
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 34
CONCLUSIONS
▪ Fiscal dynamics of new development projects are complex and depend on a number of interrelated variables.
▪ A diversity of residential uses is a critical part of cultivating and attracting needed labor resources.
▪ Commercial and employment-generating uses should be carefully calibrated to demand associated with existing and future residential base and capitalize on mutually reinforcing cycle between residential, retail, and employment uses.
▪ Diversity of project uses is important to support sustainable communities (both economic and environmental).
▪ Existing and potential policy incentives seek to ensure an appropriate balance of housing, retail, and employment uses.
▪ Myriad other considerations, including construction costs, regulatory burdens, and infrastructure finance paradigm.
CALED Economic Snapshot
Ellen Martin, PrincipalEconomic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Sean Fisher, AssociateEconomic & Planning Systems, Inc.
1st Quarter, 2018
FolsomChallenges
*Very little available office space over 10,000 sf
* Larger commercial space will take 18-24 months of lead time prior to occupancy.
* Lack of meeting and venue space to grow tourism occupancy
* Transportation connectivity to Sacramento and the Bay Area
* Availability of housing diversity
* Attracting new businesses from the Bay Area and Silicon Valley
* Available workforce
* Very little available office space over 10,000 sf and larger commercial space will take 18-24 months of lead time prior to occupancy.
Working with developers to build spec office space.Existing and new land designated for office space provides incredible opportunity for businesses looking for strategic
growth of a campus site.
* Lack of meeting and venue space to grow tourism occupancy.
In discussions on expanding conference meeting space and attraction of new events that attract visitors.
Choose FolsomStrategies vs. Challenges
* Transportation connectivity to Sacramento and the Bay Area.
Working with the City and Regional Transit for double tracking and express train to Sacramento.
In final discussions with Luxe Air to provide commuter air service between Mather and the Bay Area.
* Availability of housing diversity.
New housing being built including executive, mixed use, condo’s, multi-family and active adult.
Choose FolsomStrategies vs. Challenges
* Attracting new businesses from the Bay Area and Silicon Valley.
Working with GSEC, CORENET, and Commercial Real Estate Brokers.
Developing Entrepreneur Center with co-working space to open in 2019.
* Available workforce
Retained Digital Social Media Influencer to utilize Facebook ads resulting in over 4,000 views of Choose Folsom ads targeted at
millennials and relocations.
Choose FolsomStrategies vs. Challenges