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Power Sector Report
Ed 1 2016
Capex and Markets $ Infrastructure and Utilities
A Complete Map of the Power Sector
Power Sector Vol 2. Generation
Vol 2. Generation provides information and analysis of the Capex, Markets and
Infrastructure of the Generation sector, with historical data and forecasts.
Marketing commentary
Vendor and competitive analysis
Special chapters with technical and market analysis
The Power Sector Reports encompass the entire spectrum of power generation,
transmission and distribution; utilities, merchant generators, industry, small captive
and domestic generators, and the growing segment of “hidden power” not included
in national statistics.
The Power Sector series consists of 9 volumes, providing modules of information,
so that you can access exactly what you want, no more no less.
Capex - analysed by energy source
Markets - sales of mechanical and electrical generating equipment
Infrastructure - generating capacity, energy source and technology
Analysis of utilities
PS2 POWER SECTOR REPORT GENERATION – INFRASTRUCTURE, CAPEX, MARKETS
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE POWER SECTOR REPORT THE STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE POWER SECTOR The scale of the power sector is outlined as an introduction, in capacity and $ value with commentary on its composition by the constituent sectors - generation, transmission and distribution (GTD).
3. OTHER UTILITY SECTORS, AS GENERATORS AND CONSUMERS The other utilities are identified - oil, gas, water & waste, telecoms, railways - they are large generators and consumers of electricity, and some have transmission and distribution networks.
4. INDUSTRIAL AND CAPTIVE GENERATION Industry is a significant generator of power and an even larger consumer, drawing from the grid more than it supplies in most but not all countries. Industry is an important owner of transmission and distribution assets such as transformers. “Hidden power “, mostly private generators under 1 MW, is a segment attracting increasing attention and has been underestimated in the past.
5. THE USE OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTOR Use by end-sector, with further analysis by type of industrial use and purpose of use.
6. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR The development of generating capacity is charted from 1900 to the present day and forecast to 2050. It is tabulated at six ten year intervals from 1980 to 2030 in the PDF report, with annual figures provided in the Excel database. This analysis is provided globally, regionally and for 184 countries.
7. INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY BY ENERGY SOURCE, 1990 to 2020 Installed capacity is analysed by energy source; coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar PV, solar thermal, biomass, MSW & waste, geothermal and ocean/marine. It is tabulated globally and for 8 regional totals at four intervals in the PDF - 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 – and in the Excel database annually from 1980 to 2020.
8. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT Annual demand is forecast to 2050. Demand is analysed by new and replacement installations globally, by regions and for 184 countries, in five year segments from 2016-2020 to 2031-2035. Demand is also shown with replacement as a % of total demand to 2050.
9. DISTRIBUTED GENERATION The status of distributed power is outlined together with captive power, cogeneration and “hidden power”, together with analysis of the impact on the retail cost of electricity.
10. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Capex is plotted globally from 2000 to 2015 and forecast to 2020, with analysis by segment; generation, transmission and distribution and summarised with analysis by energy source from 2000 to 2020; coal, gas, oil, nuclear, wind, utility solar PV, rooftop solar PV, bioenergy. The recent rapid growth of small solar PV is demonstrated. The composition of capex is analysed.
11. GENERATION CAPEX BY ENERGY SOURCE/TECHNOLOGY Generating capex is analysed by energy source (see previous chapter details) for the world, 7 regions and 11 major countries, at eight intervals in the PDF - 2000, 2010 and annually from 2015 to 2020 – and in the Excel database annually from 2000 to 2020. The current status and prospects for each energy source are discussed.
2. UTILITY SECTORS The 135,000 electricity, gas and water & waste utilities are shown regionally on a global map
and the 11,000 electrical utilities are analysed by region and major country, with a breakdown of
public/private ownership. A table summarises the electrical utility sector in every country.
PS2 POWER SECTOR REPORT GENERATION – INFRASTRUCTURE, CAPEX, MARKETS
CHAPTER OUTLINE
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12. DEFINITION OF THE POWER SECTOR EQUIPMENT MARKET The power sector is defined, with broad parameters to include electrical utilities, IPPS, industrial captive generation and small scale distributed generation. In the generating sector it is important to understand the overlap of mechanical equipment, which constitutes over ¾ of equipment expenditure in the power generation sector, between electrical uses and mechanical uses, such as heat and steam output in district heating and industrial process. Plants such as industrial boilers are a large component in fossil fuel power generation but they have even larger applications in other industries.
13. GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES The composition of plant in the various generating technologies is outlined and analysed by share of cost, for the following technologies; coal fired plants, gas turbine simple cycle (OCGT), gas turbine combined cycle (CCGT), oil-fired steam turbine plant, diesel engine-generator, wind turbine, solar photovoltaic, hydropower and nuclear power.
14. REGIONAL AND NATIONAL EQUIPMENT MARKETS BY PRODUCTS Each regional and national market for generating equipment is tabulated by product in nominal values in the PDF from 2000, 2010 and annually from 2015 to 2020 - and in the Excel database annually from 1980 to 2020 for the world.
15. SALES OF GENERATION PLANT BY REGION The generating equipment markets are analysed by market, in value in the PDF for 2000, 2010 and annually from 2015 to 2020 - and in the Excel database annually from 1980 to 2020 for the world, 7 regions and 11 major countries. Generation products include: boilers, steam turbines, gas turbines, HRSG (Heat recovery steam generators), diesel & HFO engines, wind turbines, hydro turbines, solar PV modules, solar PV inverters, FGD (flue gas desulphurisation), SCR/SNCR (selective catalytic reduction/selective non-catalytic reduction), PM (particulate removal; ESP, scrubbers, fabric filters/baghouses), CPP (coal preparation plant), fly ash handling plant, insulated cable, compressors, piping, instruments and control equipment, GSU generator transformers, GCB (generator circuit breakers), switchgear and power plant automation. Vendor shares or rankings are provided for the individual categories/products and sections have marketing and technical commentary. Where available these have been supplemented with extracts from dedicated StatPlan product marketing reports, with higher levels of detail.
16. THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX The cost of any product can be measured at various stages, from being a piece of unworked metal, to its installation in working order and finally as a marked-up share of capital expenditure. Different price levels apply through the supply chain, and the point of interest in the chain depends on the business to which the value is being applied. The report analyses the value chain at 6 levels, from BOM (bill of materials) to capex, with all mark-ups included. In using the market information in this and other reports it is essential to specify which point in the value chain is being used. Capex can be 2½ times the factory gate price, over 3 times manufacturing cost and 5 times materials cost.
17. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING PRICES In recent years the prices of electro-technical products have been volatile due to variations in many factors which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price Index, industry trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition.
18. N-1 STANDARD, N-2, 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for market size calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure, transformer
PS2 POWER SECTOR REPORT GENERATION – INFRASTRUCTURE, CAPEX, MARKETS
CHAPTER OUTLINE
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failure, industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency planning for network failure and electricity distribution.
19. THE ENVIRONMENTAL EQUATION Environmental emissions will be reduced with a combination of measures and policies instituted by the power generation industry and industry in general. Renewables can deliver a saving in carbon of 21%, CCS (carbon capture and storage) in both industry and the generating sector can deliver one fifth (19%) of GHG reductions by 2050. The other reductions will be attributed to efficiency in end-use (12%), fuel efficiency (24%), switching of fuel for end-use (11%), power generation efficiency and fuel saving (7%), and nuclear power (6%).
20. AQCS – AIR QUALITY CONTROL SYSTEMS Emissions consist of two categories, GHGs or greenhouse gases, and air pollutants. This chapter outlines the sources of emissions, supply side measures to reduce them, and end-of-pipe control measures for the principal air pollutants SO2, NOx and PM, particulate matter. The development and penetration of AQCS (air quality control systems) technologies for SO2, NOx and PM are tabulated - FGD, SCR, LNB, ESP, fabric filters, HED - for the major emitting countries.
21. CCS – CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE The carbon cycle, climate change and greenhouse gases are outlined. The current status of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is outlined with an assessment of progress in industry and the generating sector.
22. ELECTRIFICATION The impact of increased electrification on future markets is described with its advantages in terms of electrical goods and aspirations, which vary according to the sophistification of the electrical market in a country. Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections are assessed with tables of electrification levels for every country, from 1950 to 2050.
23. CURRENTS, CIRCUITS AND PHASES Currents - AC and DC, circuits, and an overview of infrastructure
24. METHODOLOGY
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PS2 POWER SECTOR REPORT– GENERATION –INFRASTRUCTURE,
CAPEX, MARKETS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
THE POWER SECTOR REPORT ................................................................................................................................................................................... 29
THE STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT............................................................................................................................................................................. 30
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE POWER SECTOR ....................................................................................................................................................... 31
The scale of the power sector ........................................................................................................................................................................ 31
The participants in the Power Sector ............................................................................................................................................................. 32
2. UTILITY SECTORS ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 34
3. OTHER UTILITY SECTORS, AS GENERATORS AND CONSUMERS ...................................................................................................................... 44
4. INDUSTRIAL AND CAPTIVE GENERATION ....................................................................................................................................................... 45
5. THE USE OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTOR ............................................................................................................................................................. 48
6. THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR ................................................................................... 53
7. INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY BY ENERGY SOURCE, 1990 to 2020 ........................................................................................................ 60
8. ANNUAL DEMAND FOR GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE POWER SECTOR, ADDITIONS AND REPLACEMENT ................................................. 64
9. DISTRIBUTED GENERATION ........................................................................................................................................................................... 79
10. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ................................................................................................................................................................................... 83
Generation, Transmission and Distribution ................................................................................................................................................... 83
11. GENERATION CAPEX BY ENERGY SOURCE ...................................................................................................................................................... 89
12. DEFINITION OF THE POWER SECTOR EQUIPMENT MARKET........................................................................................................................... 96
13. GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES ........................................................................................................................................................................ 99
Coal fired plants ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 101
Gas turbine simple cycle (OCGT) .................................................................................................................................................................. 102
Gas turbine combined cycle (CCGT) ............................................................................................................................................................. 102
Oil-fired steam turbine plant ....................................................................................................................................................................... 103
Diesel engine-generator .............................................................................................................................................................................. 103
Wind turbine ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 104
Solar photovoltaic ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 104
Hydropower ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 104
Nuclear power ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 105
14. REGIONAL AND NATIONAL EQUIPMENT MARKETS ...................................................................................................................................... 107
Generation plant, World .............................................................................................................................................................................. 107
Generation plant, United States .................................................................................................................................................................. 109
Generation plant, Europe ............................................................................................................................................................................ 110
Generation plant, France ............................................................................................................................................................................. 111
Generation plant, Germany ......................................................................................................................................................................... 112
Generation plant, Italy ................................................................................................................................................................................. 113
Generation plant, Spain ............................................................................................................................................................................... 114
Generation plant, United Kingdom .............................................................................................................................................................. 115
Generation plant, CIS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 116
Generation plant, Russia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 117
Generation plant, Asia Pacific ...................................................................................................................................................................... 118
Generation plant, Japan ............................................................................................................................................................................... 119
Generation plant, China ............................................................................................................................................................................... 120
Generation plant, India ................................................................................................................................................................................ 121
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Generation plant, Africa ............................................................................................................................................................................... 124
Generation plant, Latin America .................................................................................................................................................................. 125
Generation plant, Brazil ............................................................................................................................................................................... 126
15. SALES OF GENERATION PLANT BY REGION ................................................................................................................................................... 127
The total generating equipment market ...................................................................................................................................................... 127
Vendors ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 128
Boilers .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 130
Steam turbines ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 132
Gas turbines ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 135
HRSG, Heat recovery steam generators ....................................................................................................................................................... 137
Diesel & HFO engines ................................................................................................................................................................................... 139
Wind turbines .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 141
Hydro turbines ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 143
Solar PV modules ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 145
Solar PV inverters ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 147
FGD Flue gas desulphurisation ..................................................................................................................................................................... 149
SCR, Selective catalytic reduction/SCNR Selective non-catalytic reduction ................................................................................................. 151
PM, Particulate removal; ESP, scrubbers, fabric filters/baghouses .............................................................................................................. 153
CPP, Coal preparation plant ......................................................................................................................................................................... 155
Fly ash handling plant .................................................................................................................................................................................. 156
Insulated cable ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 158
Compressors ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 163
Piping ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 164
Instruments and control equipment ............................................................................................................................................................ 165
GSU Generator transformers ....................................................................................................................................................................... 166
GCB Generator circuit breakers ................................................................................................................................................................... 169
Switchgear ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 171
Power Plant automation .............................................................................................................................................................................. 173
16. THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX ....................................................................................................................................... 174
The value chain at 6 levels ........................................................................................................................................................................... 174
17. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING PRICES............................................................................................................................................. 180
Price Trends ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 180
PPI - Producer Price Index ............................................................................................................................................................................ 180
Industry ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 181
Production capacity ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 181
Manufacturing input cost composition ........................................................................................................................................................ 182
18. N-1 STANDARD, N-2, 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT ...................................................................................................................... 186
Network failure ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 186
Transformer failure ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 186
Industrial reliability ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 188
Network reliability ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 189
N-1 and the networks .................................................................................................................................................................................. 189
19. THE ENVIRONMENTAL EQUATION ............................................................................................................................................................... 194
20. AQCS – AIR QUALITY CONTROL SYSTEMS ..................................................................................................................................................... 196
GHGs, Greenhouse gases ............................................................................................................................................................................. 197
Air pollutants ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 197
Sources of emissions .................................................................................................................................................................................... 198
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Air pollutants ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 199
Supply side measures to reduce man made emisssions .............................................................................................................................. 199
Emission types and end-of-pipe control measures ...................................................................................................................................... 200
Particulate Matter ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 202
Heavy metals – lead, mercury, cadmium ..................................................................................................................................................... 203
The development and penetration of aqcs technology ............................................................................................................................... 203
21. CCS – CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE ...................................................................................................................................................... 208
The carbon cycle, climate change and greenhouse gases ............................................................................................................................ 208
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) – current status ..................................................................................................................................... 210
EOR, Enhanced oil recovery. ........................................................................................................................................................................ 212
22. ELECTRIFICATION .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 216
The impact of increased electrification on future markets .......................................................................................................................... 216
Electrical goods and aspirations: The household electrification wheel ........................................................................................................ 217
Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections .............................................................................................................. 218
23. CURRENTS, CIRCUITS AND PHASES ............................................................................................................................................................... 229
Currents - AC and DC.................................................................................................................................................................................... 229
Circuits ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 230
Overview of infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................................................... 231
METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 233
Market sizing and bottom up forecasting .................................................................................................................................................... 237
The Sanity Check and Validation .................................................................................................................................................................. 237
Figures
Figure 1: The global utility landscape ........................................................................................................................... 34
Figure 2: Industry uses of different energy sources in the US ..................................................................................... 49
Figure 3: Energy use by type of industry in the US (All types of energy) ..................................................................... 49
Figure 4: % of total machine drive electricity used in manufacturing in the US .......................................................... 50
Figure 5: Machine drive electricity use as a percentage of total delivered energy use by each industry in the US .... 51
Figure 6: World generating capacity in GW, development from 1900 to 2050 ........................................................... 53
Figure 7: World generating capacity in GW, development by region from 1980 to 2030 ........................................... 54
Figure 8: Installed capacity by fuel in GW, 1990 to 2020 ............................................................................................. 60
Figure 9: Installed capacity and annual demand for generating capacity in GW, 1900 to 2050.................................. 64
Figure 10: Cumulative new and replacement demand for generating capacity in GW, 1900 to 2050 ........................ 65
Figure 11: New and replacement demand for generating capacity in GW unstacked, 1900 to 2050 ......................... 66
Figure 12: Replacement capacity as a % of total annual demand 5 year totals, 2016-2050 ....................................... 67
Figure 13: Composition of the retail cost of electricity ................................................................................................ 81
Figure 14: Total global capital expenditure on GTD, nominal $ billion 2000-20 .......................................................... 83
Figure 15: Comparison of expenditure on GTD in real ($2015) and nominal values, 2000-20 .................................... 84
Figure 16: Global capital expenditure broken by GTD, nominal $ billion, 2000-020 ................................................... 84
Figure 17: Total capex in Generation, Transmission and distribution 2000-2010 compared with 2010-2020. ........... 85
Figure 18: Investment surges 1900 to2015 .................................................................................................................. 85
Figure 19: Total Capital Expenditure on Generation, Transmission and Distribution by region in 2016 ..................... 86
Figure 20: Capital expenditure on generation by energy source, nominal $ billion2000-20, ...................................... 87
Figure 21: Total Capital Expenditure on GTD by Region and Year, nominal $ billion, 2000, 2010, 2020 ..................... 87
Figure 22: Composition of global capital expenditure Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 2015 .................. 88
Figure 23: Commodity price Index 1996 to 2016 ....................................................................................................... 182
Figure 24: Industrial metals prices 2007 to 2016 ....................................................................................................... 183
Figure 25: Labour compensation cost, including direct pay, social insurance expenditures, and labourtaxes. ........ 184
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Figure 26: Labour costs including wages and salaries, social insurance and labour-related taxes ............................ 184
Figure 27: Minimum wages in China in yuan per month 1995 to 2012 ..................................................................... 185
Figure 28: A high voltage substation with four transformers, three active and one redundant ............................... 190
Figure 29: Possible reductions in GHG emissions by 2050 ......................................................................................... 194
Figure 30: Beijing after rain and on a day with smog ................................................................................................. 196
Figure 31: Sources of emissions ................................................................................................................................. 198
Figure 32: Countries responsible for emissions ......................................................................................................... 199
Figure 33: The carbon cycle and storage ................................................................................................................... 208
Figure 34: % of carbon emissions from heat and power generation, 2014 ............................................................... 209
Figure 35: % of carbon emission from the world coal-fired fleet, 2014..................................................................... 209
Figure 36: Actual and expected operation dates for large-scale CCS projects , by region and lifecycle stage. ......... 211
Figure 37: Technological learning rates of selected energy related technologies ..................................................... 213
Figure 38: Additions of electrified households between 2015 and 2050 by region .................................................. 216
Figure 39: Countries with greatest population declines by 2050............................................................................... 217
Figure 40: The Household Electrification Wheel ........................................................................................................ 218
Figure 41: Population growth % in each decade by region ........................................................................................ 219
Figure 42: Average household size, World, 1900 to 2050 ......................................................................................... 219
Figure 43: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050 ........................................................ 220
Figure 44: World electrification – Number of households with and without electricity, 1900-2050 ........................ 221
Figure 45: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries, 2008 ............................................. 221
Figure 46: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050 ............................................................................ 222
Figure 47: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900-2050 ................................................. 222
Figure 48: Single phase power ................................................................................................................................... 230
Figure 49: Three phase power ................................................................................................................................... 230
Figure 50: The composition of annual demand for capacity, new plus replacement ................................................ 234
Tables
Table 1: Ownership of assets in the power sector by owner type ............................................................................... 33
Table 2: The world’s electrical utility landscape .......................................................................................................... 39
Table 3: Infrastructure of utilities ................................................................................................................................ 44
Table 4: Indian utilities’ generating capacity 1947 -2015 by fuel ................................................................................. 45
Table 5: Indian captive power plant generating capacity 1947 -2015 by fuel ............................................................. 46
Table 6: Sale of diesel gensets in India by international manufacturers > 1 MW from 1990 to 2004 ......................... 46
Table 7: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Europe ......................................................................... 55
Table 8: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, CIS ................................................................................ 56
Table 9: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, MENA ........................................................................... 56
Table 10: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa .................................................... 57
Table 11: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Asia Pacific ................................................................. 58
Table 12: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, the Americas .............................................................. 59
Table 13: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, World .......................................................... 61
Table 14: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Europe ........................................................ 61
Table 15: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, CIS ............................................................... 61
Table 16: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Middle East ................................................. 62
Table 17: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, North Africa ................................................ 62
Table 18: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa ..................................... 62
Table 19: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, Asia Pacific .................................................. 63
Table 20: Installed generating capacity MW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, LAC .............................................................. 63
Table 21: Installed generating capacityMW by fuel type 1990 to 2020, North America ............................................ 63
Table 22: New and replacement demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2035 .............................................. 65
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Table 23: Total demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2050 ......................................................................... 65
Table 24: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, Europe ................................................. 68
Table 25: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Europe ....................... 69
Table 26: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, CIS ........................................................ 70
Table 27: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, CIS .............................. 70
Table 28: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, MENA ................................................... 71
Table 29: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, MENA ......................... 72
Table 30: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, Sub-Saharan Africa .............................. 73
Table 31: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa .... 74
Table 32: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, Asia Pacific ........................................... 75
Table 33: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Asia Pacific ................. 76
Table 34: New and replacement demand by country in MW, 2015 to 2030, the Americas ........................................ 77
Table 35: Total new and replacement demand in GW and % of replacement, 2015 to 2050, Americas .................... 78
Table 36: World - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................ 89
Table 37: USA - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................... 90
Table 38: Europe - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 .............................................. 90
Table 39: France - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ............................................... 91
Table 40: Germany - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ........................................... 91
Table 41: Italy - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................... 91
Table 42: Spain - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................. 91
Table 43: United Kingdom - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................ 92
Table 44: CIS - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ..................................................... 92
Table 45: Russia- Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................ 92
Table 46: Asia Pacific - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ........................................ 92
Table 47: Japan - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................ 93
Table 48: China - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................. 93
Table 49: India - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 .................................................. 93
Table 50: Korea, Australasia - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ............................. 93
Table 51: South East Asia - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................. 94
Table 52: Middle East - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ....................................... 94
Table 53: Africa - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................ 94
Table 54: LAC - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020.................................................... 94
Table 55: Brazil - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................................................. 95
Table 56: Composition of generation capex over all technologies, 2000 and 2015 .................................................... 99
Table 57: Some principal cost components of generating capex ............................................................................... 100
Table 58: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a coal fired plant at installed cost ........................................ 102
Table 59: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of gas-fired OCGT or CCGT plant at installed cost ................... 103
Table 60: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of an oil-fired steam turbine plant at installed cost ................ 103
Table 61: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a diesel or FO reciprocating engine plant at installed cost .. 103
Table 62: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a wind turbine at installed cost ........................................... 104
Table 63: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a solar PV plant at installed cost ......................................... 104
Table 64: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a hydropower plant at installed cost ................................... 105
Table 65: Cost breakdown of capex in construction of a nuclear power plant at installed cost ............................... 106
Table 66: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and ....................... 107
Table 67: Ratio of sales of mechanical and electrical equipment in generation and T&D, 2000 to 2020 ................. 107
Table 68: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, World, 2000 to 2020 ....................... 108
Table 69: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and ....................... 109
Table 70: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, United States, 2000 to 2020 ........... 109
Table 71: Generation equipment cost, at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Europe, 2000-20 ......... 110
Table 72: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Europe, 2000-2020 ......................... 110
Table 73: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and ....................... 111
Table 74: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, France, 2000-2020 .......................... 111
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Table 75: Generation equipment cost, at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Germany, 2000-20 ..... 112
Table 76: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Germany, 2000-20 .......................... 112
Table 77: Generation equipment cost , at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Italy, 2000-20 ............ 113
Table 78: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Italy, 2000-20 .................................. 113
Table 79: Generation equipment cost, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, Spain, 2000-20 . 114
Table 80: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Spain, 2000 to 2020 ........................ 114
Table 81: Generation equipment cost, purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, UK, 2000-20 ................... 115
Table 82: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, UK, 2000 to 2020 ............................ 115
Table 83: Generation equipment cost, at purchase price, at installed cost and % share of capex, CIS, 2000-20 ..... 116
Table 84: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, CIS, 2000 to 2020 ............................ 116
Table 85: Generation equipment cost , at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Russia, 2000-20 ......... 117
Table 86: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Russia, 2000 to 2020 ...................... 117
Table 87: Generation equipment cost , at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Asia Pacific, 2000-20 . 118
Table 88: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Asia Pacific, 2000 to 2020 ............... 118
Table 89: Generation equipment cost , at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Japan, 2000 to 2020 .. 119
Table 90: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Japan, 2000 to 2020 ....................... 119
Table 91: Generation equipment cost , at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, China, 2000 to 2020 .. 120
Table 92: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, China, 2000 to 2020 ....................... 120
Table 93: Generation equipment cost , at purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, India, 2000 to 2020 ... 121
Table 94: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, India, 2000 to 2020 ......................... 121
Table 95: Generation equipment cost, purchase price, installed cost and % of capex, Southeast Asia, 2000-20..... 122
Table 96: Generation equipment cost, purchase price in nominal $ million, Southeast Asia, 2000 to 2020 ............ 122
Table 97: Generation equipment cost, purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Middle East, 2000-20 ..... 123
Table 98: Generation equipment cost, purchase price , Middle East, 2000-20 ......................................................... 123
Table 99: Generation equipment cost, purchase price, installed cost and % of capex, Africa, 2000-20 ................... 124
Table 100: Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, Africa, 2000-20 ............................. 124
Table 101: Generation equipment cost, purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Latin America, 2000-20 125
Table 102: Generation equipment cost, purchase price in nominal $ million, Latin America, 2000-20 .................... 125
Table 103: Generation equipment cost, purchase price, at installed cost and % of capex, Brazil, 2000-20 ............. 126
Table 104: Generation equipment cost, purchase price in nominal $ million, Brazil, 2000-20 ................................. 126
Table 105: Sales of generation equipment at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ................................ 127
Table 106: Market shares of generating equipment vendors, 2015 ......................................................................... 129
Table 107: Sales of boilers at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ................ 130
Table 108: Leaders in industrial boiler production .................................................................................................... 131
Table 109: Sales of steam turbines, generators & condensers at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 . 133
Table 110: Market shares of steam turbine vendors, 2015 ....................................................................................... 134
Table 111: Sales of gas turbines & generators at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 .......................... 135
Table 112: Market shares of gas turbine vendors, 2015 ........................................................................................... 136
Table 113: Sales of HRSG heat recovery steam generators at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ....... 137
Table 114: Leaders in HRSG production .................................................................................................................... 138
Table 115: Sales of HFO/diesel reciprocating engines at purchase price by region and country in .......................... 139
Table 116: Diesel engine vendors ............................................................................................................................. 140
Table 117: Sales of wind turbine at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 ....... 141
Table 118: Global market shares of wind turbine manufacturers, 2015 ................................................................... 142
Table 119: Global market shares of off-shore wind turbine manufacturers, 2015 ................................................... 142
Table 120: Types of hydro turbine with applications ................................................................................................ 143
Table 121: Sales of hydro turbine, generator and regulators at purchase price by region and country, 2000 -20 ... 143
Table 122: Global market shares of off-shore wind turbine manufacturers, 2015 ................................................... 144
Table 123: Sales of solar PV modules at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ........................................ 145
Table 124: Global market ranking of top 10 solar PV manufacturers, ranked by MW shipped, 2014 ...................... 146
Table 125: Sales of solar PV inverters at purchase price by region and country, 2000 -20 ....................................... 147
Table 126: Global market ranking of top 7 solar inverter manufacturers, ranked by value, 2015 ........................... 148
10
Table 127: Sales of FGD flue gas desulphurization at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 .................... 149
Table 128: Top FGD vendors ...................................................................................................................................... 150
Table 129: Sales of SCR selective catalytic reduction at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ................ 151
Table 130: Top SCR vendors ....................................................................................................................................... 152
Table 131: Sales of particulate removal at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ..................................... 153
Table 132: Top PM removal vendors ......................................................................................................................... 154
Table 133: Sales of CPP coal preparation plant at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ......................... 155
Table 134: Sales of fly ash handling plant at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 .................................. 156
Table 135: Top PM removal vendors ......................................................................................................................... 157
Table 136: Sales of insulated cable at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ............................................ 158
Table 137: The top global cable manufacturers by industry ...................................................................................... 159
Table 138: Cable manufacturers global market shares by country............................................................................ 160
Table 139: Sales of compressors at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ................................................ 163
Table 140: Compressor manufacturers ...................................................................................................................... 163
Table 141: Sales of piping at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 .................. 164
Table 142: Piping companies/installers market share in China ................................................................................. 164
Table 143: Sales of instruments and control equipment at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ........... 165
Table 144: Sales of GSU generator transformers at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ....................... 166
Table 145: GSU Generator transformer market shares ............................................................................................. 168
Table 146: Sales of GCB generator circuit breakers at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ................... 170
Table 147: Sales of other switchgear at purchase price by region and country, 2000-20 ......................................... 171
Table 148: GCB circuit breakers and switchegar market shares ................................................................................ 172
Table 149: Sales of utility automation at purchase price by region and country, 2000-2020 ................................... 173
Table 150: Costs and mark-up from Bill of Materials to Capex .................................................................................. 175
Table 151: Prices of copper and aluminium 1960-2014 ............................................................................................ 178
Table 152: Reductions in emissions by the main AQCS technologies ........................................................................ 201
Table 153: Penetration of end-of-pipe AQCS measures ............................................................................................ 207
Table 154: The global coal-fired generating fleet 2015 ............................................................................................. 214
Table 155: Levelised Cost of Electricity for New-Build Power Plants with and without CCS ..................................... 215
Table 156: Electrification in North America - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .................. 223
Table 157: Electrification in Europe - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .............................. 223
Table 158: Electrification in the CIS - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .............................. 224
Table 159: Electrification in MENA - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050................................ 224
Table 160: Electrification in S-S Africa - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ........................... 225
Table 161: Electrification in Asia - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ................................... 226
Table 162: Electrification in the Pacific - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 ......................... 227
Table 163: Electrification in Latin America - % of households with access to electricity, 1950 to 2050 .................... 228
Table 164: Products and technologies used in generating plants .............................................................................. 235
Table 165: Products and technologies used in transmission ..................................................................................... 236
Table 166: Products and technologies used in distribution ....................................................................................... 236
11
PS 2 - SAMPLE PAGES
Table 1: Installed generating capacity in MW, 1980 to 2030, Asia Pacific
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Afghanistan
Australia
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Brunei
Cambodia
Table 2: New and replacement demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2035
New Replacement
2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35
World
Table 3: Total demand for generating capacity, MW, 2016 to 2050
Total demand % replacement
2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40 2041-45 2046-50 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40 2041-45 2046-50
World
There are just over XXX electricity, gas and water & waste utilities in the world; XXX electricity, XXX gas
and XXX water & waste. With numbers like these the range in size is huge, especially for water. The XXX
electrical utilities are the core of the power sector, the XXX gas and water & waste utilities consume a lot
of energy and except for smallest water distributors they mostly generate it themselves. The XXX electrical
utilities are the primary constituents of the power sector, the XXX gas and water & waste utilities are
secondary. The utilities have developed in diverse ways in the regions of the world.
12
By 2016 Chinese investment had grown so fast that this year it will be almost double the amount invested
either in the United States, $XXX billion versus $XXX billion, and $XXX billion in Europe. Combined, the
United States, China and Europe will account for XX% global investment in the power sector in 2016. India
is the third largest investing country, with $XX billion.
Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020 (Table 36)
2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar PV utility scale
Solar PV small rooftop
Bioenergy
Generation
The expenditure in the generation sector is made up of several components. In 2015 XX% was composed
of civil works, owner’s cost and indirect costs, XX% on installation and XX% on the purchase of equipment.
In the generation segment mechanical plant far outweighs electrical, with XX% versus X%. Solar PV
modules rose to XX% in 2015 after a meteoric rise in the previous few years.
Composition of generation capex over all technologies, 2015 (Table 56)
Share of capex
Mechanical equipment
Electrical equipment
Solar PV modules
Installation cost
Civil, indirect cost and owner's cost
Capex
Equipment Markets
The analysis of the equipment markets is concerned with the XX% of capex devoted to purchases of plant
and equipment at buyer’s prices. The definition of buyer’s price varies with the type of equipment because
different equipment is sold through different marketing channels which incur different mark-ups at various
stages. An HV power transformer is a bespoke item which is purchased direct from the manufacturer to a
unique specification. The buyer’s price is therefore the manufacturer’s selling price. An MV or LV
transformer is a commodity item held in stock and purchased from a distributor, who adds a mark-up to
the manufacturer’s selling price. See Chapter 16 The Value Chain – From Materials to Capex.
13
Table 4: France - Generation capex by technology, nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar PV utility scale
Solar PV small rooftop
Bioenergy
Generation
Demand is the sum of new plant which is added to existing capacity and replacements for retirements of
obsolete and aged assets. As time goes on the replacements feed on previous replacements, so a power
plant built in 1900 has been replaced more than once in the last hundred years. There was a large surge
in new build in the years from 1960 to 1985, and even more from 1995 to 2010. Each of these surges
creates a cycle when the plant reaches the end of its life and needs to be renewed. This renewal can be
retrofit, replacement or life extension.
14
Table 5: Generation equipment cost in nominal $ million, at purchase price, at installed cost and
% share of capex, World, 2000 to 2020
$ ‘000 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Equipment price
Installed cost
Capex
Equipment price
Installed cost
Capex
Generation equipment cost at purchase price in nominal $ million, World, 2000 to 2020
(Table 76)
$ ‘000 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Boilers
Steam turbines, generators and condensers
Gas turbines and generators
HRSG heat recovery steam generators
HFO/diesel reciprocating engines
Wind turbines
Hydro turbines, generator and regulators
Solar PV modules
Solar PV inverters
FGD flue gas desulphurisation
SCR selective catalytic reduction
Particulate removal (ESB, scrubbers, baghouse)
CPP coal preparation plant
Fly ash handling plant
Insulated cable
Compressors
Piping
Instruments and control
BOP/general facilities
Generator transformers
GCB generator circuit breakers
Other switchgear
Other electrical
Utility automation
Total equipment purchase price
Vendors
Different sets of competitors compete in the different world regions, but that the leading European and
American players. Three companies are leaders in almost every sector of the generating industry and
operate globally; GE, Siemens and Alstom. In 2015 GE acquired Alstom Power and Grid. It is the largest
investment GE has ever made. Close to 25% of the world’s power production capacity depends on Alstom
technology and services. ABB ranks equal to the three leaders in prestige but is dominant in transmission
and distribution…………………………
15
Sales of generation equipment at purchase price by region and country in nominal $ million, 2000 to
2020 (Table 113)
$ ‘000 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World
USA
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Europe
Russia
CIS
Japan
China
India
South East Asia
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Latin America
16
Hydro turbines
Hydropower is providing approximately 17% of the world's electricity and more than 50% of clean,
renewable electricity output annually, worldwide. It has been estimated that only a third of the total world
hydro power capacity has been developed. However, this market has some drawbacks, such ecological
concern related to dams, relocation and rehabilitation of affected stakeholders, environmental Issues such
as methane from decaying vegetation, long gestation period and the high installation cost of dams.
There are a number of different hydropower turbine types available that are suited to different heads and
flows. The table below summarises the main hydropower turbines that are available.
Table 6: Types of hydro turbine with applications
Hydropower Turbine Type Typical Site Characteristics
Archimedean Screw Low heads (1.5 – 5 metres) Medium to high flows (1 to 20 m3/s).For higher flows multiple screws are used.
Crossflow turbine Low to medium heads (2 – 40 metres) Low to medium flows (0.1 – 5 m3/s)
Kaplan turbine Low to medium heads (1.5 – 20 metres) Medium to high flows (3 m3/s – 30 m3/s) For higher flows multiple turbines can be used.
Pelton/Turgo turbine High heads (greater than 25 metres) Lower flows (0.01 m3/s – 0.5 m3/s)
Waterwheels Low heads (1 – 5 metres) Medium flows (0.3 – 1.5 m3/s)
Francis turbines No longer commonly used except in very large storage hydropower systems. For older turbines : Low to medium heads (1.5 – 20 metres) Medium flows (0.5 – 4 m3/s)
Table 7: Sales of hydro turbine, generator and regulators at purchase price by region and country
in nominal $ million, 2000 to 2020
$ ‘000 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World
USA
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Europe
Russia
CIS
Japan
China
India
South East Asia
Asia Pacific
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Latin America
