Power Crises

8/13/2019 Power Crises

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P AKISTAN ELECTRIC P OWER C RISIS AND ITS P OSSIBLE S OLUTIONS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................21.INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................22.INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS ...................................................33.FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER SHORTAGE..............................44.EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS.............................................................................54.1.Effects on People .....................................................................................54.2.Effects on Economy..................................................................................65.SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE......................................................65.1.Energy Conservation Measures...................................................................65.2.Short Term Measures................................................................................85.3.Long Term Measures.................................................................................86.CONCLUSION.................................................................................................9BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................................................................10APPENDIX . .11

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The recent electric power shortage crisis in Pakistan is affecting economyand various people and the situation is getting worse day by day. Althoughonly 46 percent of the population of the country has the facility of electricity

but still the government is unable to manage a steady power to them. Poorplanning, recent climatic changes, oil prices and politics are the primarilyresponsible for today s severe crisis. The economy and subsequently peopleare badly effected by this crisis with loss of huge capital and degradinghealth. The solution to the current crisis lies in energy conservation al alllevels in the country. However the use of alternate energy such as windturbine and solar power can be utilized to immediately reduce the shortage,while electricity generation projects from coal and large dams can provide along term solution to electricity shortage.

1. INTRODUCTION3. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions Pakistan is in thegrip of a serious power shortage crisis that is affecting all sectors of theeconomy and the various segments of the society. As we write this report,the country is plunging deeper and deeper into the crisis; the electricityshortfall has hit the record level. This situation has pushed the people ofPakistan to bear the burden of 8 to 16 hours load shedding, which might

further increase in the future.


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2. INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS

Pakistan is experiencing these shortages despite its miserly electricity usewith per capita consumption of 546-kilowatt hours per year, a fifth of the

global average of 2,586-kilowatt hours, according to statistics from the SouthAsia Association for Regional Cooperation. Also the fact that electrical powershortages are so sever in Pakistan where only approximately forty-sixpercent of the population has access to it. Pakistan's electricity productionwas nearly 3,000 Mega Watts (MW) short of demand in March. The authorities(see Appendix A) tried to make up the difference by turning off lights, andeverything else, for several hours a day. The electricity shortfall has hit therecord level of 7,075 MW in July owing to the forced shutdown of many unitsof power generation plants following the severe fuel scarcity. This powershortage crisis is likely to continue for several years even if the steps aretaken to reduce it on war-footing basis. Below mentioned data show that the

gap between demand and supply of electrical power will increase in the future. `

Table 1 Power Generation Power Consumption Year Power Deficit(Projected) (Projected)

2009 15,032 MW 18,715 MW 3,683 MW 2010 17,378 MW 20,345 MW 2,977 MW2011 18,831 MW 22,116 MW 3,285 MW 2012 22,898 MW 24,041 MW 1,143 MW2013 23,311 MW 26,133 MW 2,822 MW 2014 24,022 MW 28,408 MW 4,386 MW2015 25,433 MW 30,881 MW 5,448 MW Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book2007

3. FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER SHORTAGE

An important question in the midst of ongoing power shortage crisis, beingraised is that why the energy crisis looms on our head despite the fact thatstatistics, demand and consumption are well articulated. According to thestatistics published on Jul 2 2004 in Energy Bulletin the gap between firmsupply and peak hours demand has shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during thisyear(2004) and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and

further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the year 2007. All this data was readilyavailable to all concerned government, so the answer to the above questionis evident but there are some other factors which turned the existing powercrisis into worse than expected. Some of these factors are discussed below: Pakistan's 19,500 megawatts of production capacity, more than 60 percent is

from imported furnace oil and domestic natural gas power plants.Hydropower generated from the country's two major dams accounts forabout 30 percent, and its one nuclear power plant produces less than fivepercent.


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The primary trigger although not the long-term cause of the power cuts was adry December. The low rainfall reduced the water in the dams, reducing thetotal power output from all major hydro electric dams. There are alsorestrictions on water release; because dams are also irrigation reservoir,there are restrictions on the amount of water it can release for electricity

generation. Even when the rains came, and the electricity supply increased,that did not guarantee that the power would stay on. Another short term factor was that transmission towers and natural gas supply infrastructurehave been blown up by the terrorists particularly in Baluchistan from wheremost of the gas is supplied to the power plants. The rising prices of oilproducts is also a major cause of power disruption in Pakistan where morethan 60 percent of electricity is generated from furnace oil. WAPDA and otherindependent power producers were having problems because they wereunable to pay for oil from oil marketing companies. Transmission losses (i.e.power theft) are thirty to thirty-eight percent, as opposed to the ten percentwhich might be expected through unavoidable line losses inherent in the

distribution system. So, even if the power distribution companies are able tocompletely remove the theft during transmission (the popular KUNDA system), 25 percent electricity could be saved and the crisis will end. A longterm cause of the existing power breakdown is that government regulatedtariffs on retail electricity prices kept revenues too low to make it worthwhile

for utilities to invest in their delivery or generation infrastructure, preventingthe network from keeping up with rising demand and unable to catch up.

4. EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS

4.1. Effects on People

The household sector been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption this crisis has literallyparalyzed the cities and villages and made life hell for the citizens. As aresult, the house holds which are connected to the grid are going withoutelectricity at average six hours of outages that are occurring per day thismonth. The daily load shedding was at first unscheduled, which increasedthe disruption and negative effects. Crowds protested in the streets of allmajor cities due to the discontent caused by the power cuts. Police have alsoreported increased crime during the blackouts in bigger cities. Poweroutages are one of the factors of wheat shortage in the country. Mills couldnot operate at capacity because of power cuts, which caused a rise in pricesand long queues for purchasing the flour. Water supplies were also affected,as pumping and purification stations shut down.

4.2.Effects on Economy

The economy of Pakistan is very badly effected by the crisis halting majortrade and economic and agricultural activities. The industries consume 31.1percent, agriculture 14.3 percent and commercial sector 5.5 percent of totalconsumption of the country. The factories having to shut down during the


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outages, international and domestic orders cannot be fulfilled due to reducedproduction. Business activity is reduced due to communication andinfrastructure shutout. The production and sale of electrical appliances hasdecreased as a result of the crisis.

5. SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE

In view of existing ground realities and statistics mentioned in Table 1, it isimpossible to overcome the crisis by short term measures. As we implementshort term measures to reduce the crisis the energy would have increasedmore and the short term measures would look like nothing. In order toaddress this crisis a three dimension parallel implementation measures arerequired. These are:

1. Energy conservation measures

2. Short term measures

3. Long term measures

5.1. Energy Conservation Measures

There are no immediate solutions to generating additional power through anysource because a unit takes at least 2-3years to establish a thermal powerplant and more than 5 years are required to construct a hydroelectric damand the investment is enormous. So, energy conservation or efficient use ofelectricity is what is needed at this crucial time. We should make the best useof existing power generation by taking conservation measures at individual,community and national level. The major users of electricity need to beeducated and motivated to play their role in energy conservation. They are:industrial sector and domestic/household sector. Each sector needs to bedealt separately to highlight the benefits of conserving energy.Domestic/household sector consumes around 21 per cent of electricityproduced in the country. This sector could be efficient by 30 per cent byavoiding wasteful habits of consuming energy such as keeping markets fullylit etc. A positive development that has so far taken place in this sector isgradual shifting over to use of energy savers. Similarly energy could besaved by minimum use of air conditioners. The entire household should bewell-aware of energy consumption. The Industrial sector is consuming thelargest amount of energy in the country. It consumes around 45 per cent ofthe total commercial energy. Most of them are concentrated in a fewindustrial areas close to or within large cities such as Karachi, Lahore andother cities. Industrial units are not energy efficient and managementpractices need improvement to make efficient use of electricity. A studycarried out by an agency ENERCON reveals that efficient use of electricity bythe industrial sector could save up to 23 per cent of electricity. The focus onenergy conservation is on the improvement of steam distribution systems, airconditioning, refrigeration and modernizing and revamping energy efficient


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combustion processes and controls. A comprehensive plan should bedeveloped to raise awareness in the masses through a campaign in print andelectronic media. Some financial benefits to the consumers of power shouldalso be given if they cut their power to a certain extent. Power crisis is notsomething new in the world. In 2000-01, US state of Page 7 of 11

8. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions Californiaintroduced a plan to reduce the power crisis, further New Zealand, Australia,Argentina, Brazil and even Sri Lanka have done it successfully.

5.2. Short Term Measures

The following short term measures can be taken immediately in order toreduce the intensity of existing power crisis:

With power needed immediately, wind turbines look good because they arerelatively fast to install whereas dams and nuclear power plants take five tosix years to complete and thermal power plants need two years at least. Wind

power can play a big part of solving Pakistan's energy shortages, and nowthat comprehensive wind maps have already been researched in the country.Immediate measure should be taken to install wind turbines especially in thealready identified wind corridors of Karachi, Thatta, Gharo and Thar. Thewind turbines are also a viable solution considering cost and environment.

Government authorities should ensure overhauling all of the countriesexisting power plants to achieve maximum generation as well as prevent it

from overloading which has been a source of power outages. This can bedone by periodically shutting down one plant at a time for maintenance andoverhauling in order to avoid overloading on other power plants.

Relaxing duties and taxes on energy conserving electrical devices, such asenergy saver lamps, LED lights, solar operated devices and wind turbines.

5.3. Long Term Measures

The following long term measures should be taken keeping in view theprojected increase in power consumption in the future:

Pakistan has estimated as the world's third-largest known coal reserves of33.0 trillion tons in the south-eastern part of the country i.e. Thar. The answerto long term solution of power crisis in Pakistan lies in using local coal forpower generation. The electricity production from coal is also cheaper than

thermal generation. In the long-term, Pakistan should also build morenuclear plants and dams. Rehabilitation and replacement of the outdated

transmission and distribution systems is also a long term measure throughwhich the country can overcome the perennial problem of line losses andthefts by unscrupulous consumers. All of the above mentioned measures ifimplemented with commitment and honesty of purpose can help our countryand people to over come negative implications of power crisis.

6. CONCLUSION


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It hardly needs to be emphasized that electricity is the lifeline of nationaleconomy and the people at large. The Economy and public life practicallycome to a halt because of the load shedding. The existing crisis can beaddressed by the government by taking prompt measures and by public bytaking energy conservation measures. There is hardly any room for neglect

or delay now.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

EIA - Country Information on Pakistan CIA World Factbook Pakistan IEA Energy Statistics for Pakistan ADB Energy Sector RestructuringProgram Documents Business Recorder Dawn (Newspaper) PakistanEconomist The Pakistan Daily Times The Pak Tribune Online Aaj TVPakistan Jang News website IEEE History Official Pakistan Governmentsite Privatization Commission of Pakistan The Pakistan Ministry ofPetroleum and Natural Resources Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation(KESC) Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) National ElectricityPower Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) Water and Power DevelopmentAuthority (WAPDA) Pak-Arab Refinery, Ltd. The Pakistan EnergyYearbook, 2005 The Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2007