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POWER CHOICES

Pathwa s to carbon-neutral electricit in Euro e b 2050

POWER CHOICES

Pathwa s to carbon-neutral electricit in Euro e b 2050

Nicola Rega

Brussels, 10 March 2010

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E RELECTRIC CE Declaration

18 March 2009

1. Carbon-neutral power in

Europe by 2050

. ,

through an integrated market

3. Energy efficiency & electricit

use as solutions to mitigate

climate change

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Back round: E RELECTRIC studies

t C O2/MWh0,60

2007 - Role of Electricity:0,40

0,50

.

CO2 from power reduces from

0.45 to 0.10t CO /MWh

Role of

Electricity0,20

0,30

0,00

0,10

2009 - Power Choices:

Review the 2007 study, aiming at carbon-neutral power by 2050

under an EU target of -75% CO2

Investigate needed technology development, costs & regulatory framework

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in Power Choices study:

National Technical University Verband der

of Athens Grokraftwerks-Betreiber

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POWER CHOICES

Pathwa s to carbon-neutral electricit in Euro e b 2050

POWER CHOICES

Pathwa s to carbon-neutral electricit in Euro e b 2050

Policy Analysis

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Power Choices scenario

CO2 emissions index (1990=100)

120POWER CHOICES SCENARIOPOWER CHOICES SCENARIO

60

80

100

75% CO2 cut across whole EU economy

CO2 price applied uniformly to all sectors

75% CO2 cut across whole EU economy

CO2 price applied uniformly to all sectors

0

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Power becomes major transport fuel

All ower eneration o tions available

Power becomes major transport fuel

All ower eneration o tions available

(with CCS commercially available as of 2025)

Major policy push in energy efficiency

(with CCS commercially available as of 2025)

Major policy push in energy efficiency

Carbon Value ('08/ t of CO2)

100.0

120.0

No binding RES target post-2020

CO price is the only driver for low-carbon

No binding RES target post-2020

CO price is the only driver for low-carbon40.060.0

80.0

generation post 2030generation post 20300.0

20.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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5.0%

% annual change of real GDP (EU27)140.00

Fossil Fuel Prices in Baseline (Constant Euro of 2008 per boe)

2000, 3.9%2014, 3.1%

2015, 3.5%

2020, 2.1%

1.6% 1.6%

2004, 2.5%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Base 2007

90.83

117.62

91.26

100.00

120.00

2005, 2.0%

2010, 0.3%

1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

50.19

72.93

51.24

65.71

60.00

80.00

Oil

Gas (NC

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

30.85

12.03

21.29 25.18

27.99

20.00

40.00Coal

, .

5.0%

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Carbon emissions from ower fall b 90

Deep emission cuts

take place between

2025-2040.

But investments are

nee e

2

2050: 128 MtCO2

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-

n

RES:

n

RES:

-

38% of total mix (1800TWh)

Wind: 56% of RES

38% of total mix (1800TWh)

Wind: 56% of RES

Nuclear:

27% of total mix (1300TWh)

Nuclear:

27% of total mix (1300TWh)

CCS:

30% of total mix (1414TWh)

CCS:

30% of total mix (1414TWh)

Other fossils:

5% of total mix (231TWh)

Other fossils:

5% of total mix (231TWh)

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Power Generation from CCS

power pro uct on:TWh in 2025, but increases to

1,200

1,400

,

lignite)

Gas-CCS develops after

600

800

1,000

TWh

Natural G

Fuel Oi l

Lignite

2030, reaching 450 TWh by

2040

200

400 Coal o a pro uc on pea s

in 2045 at 1440 TWh : coaland li nite 870 TWh as over2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050560 TWh

Share of CCS-power in 2050

is 30%

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1090TWh in 2020, or 32% of total

electricity generation RES electricit EU27 GWh Renewable production continues

to rise steeply, reaching 14000001600000

1800000

2000000

n . e propor on

of renewables rises to 38% in

2050. 600000800000

1000000

1200000Geothermal heat

Solar, tidal etc.

Biomass & waste

RES production in 2050:

Wind 1004 TWh0

200000

400000

00

0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5

40

4 5 0

W n

Hydro

Hydro 370 TWh

Biomass 289 TWh

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

o ar

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MW

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Dispatchable capacity would

be needed to guarantee the

meeting of peak demand

renewables would require

back-u ca acit to meetpeak demand

way dispatchable electricity is,

investments in dispatchable

electricity would still be

needed.

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but a reasonable cost for society

Investment needed in power

Power Generation Investment (billion )

2000,0

2500,0

500,0

1000,0

,2025-2050

2000-2025

0,0

Power Choices

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Decrease in ener demand

1200

1400

MtoeFinal energy consumption by sector, EU

27

800

1000

Trans ort

600

Residential

Tertiary

Other Industrie

200

Heavy Industry

Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies

More electricity = less energy

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POWER CHOICES

Pathwa s to carbon-neutral electricit in Euro e b 2050

POWER CHOICES

Pathwa s to carbon-neutral electricit in Euro e b 2050

Final Remarks

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car on-neu ra power y s rea s c-75% CO2 on whole economy can be reached

Electrification of the demand side essential

The major CO2 reductions in power are achieved from

CCS delayed &/or nuclear phase-out = slower CO2reduction

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Enable the use of all low-carbon Support CO2 market to deliver cap at

Encourage public support for modern

energy infrastructure: onshore wind,

All sectors to internalise cost of CO2

Promote an international agreement

CCS, smart grids

-

Facilitate electrification of road Significant investment cost butranspor an spa a ea ng coo ng

Major policy push in energy efficiency

re uc on n s are o

Recognise that cost of technology

de lo ment differs substantiall across

the EU

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Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!