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Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network
Poverty and Social Exclusion: What do we know, and what do we need to know?
Luca BarboneDirector, Poverty Reduction and Development Effectiveness Department
World Bank
Page 2
Outline
1. Why measure poverty and social exclusion
2. Developments ın poverty measurement and methodologıcal challenges
3. Problems in collecting data with regularity
4. Practical aspects of organizing monitoring at the national and local levels
5. Practical aspects of organizing monitoring at the local level
Page 3
1. Why measure poverty and social exclusion?
The new aid architecture and country-based development model: goes beyond the purely economic model of poverty addresses the relationship between structural,
institutional, human, & macroeconomic aspects of development
emphasizes the links between objectives and the actions needed to reach them – and the importance of clear, monitorable indicators of progress
Page 4
The country-based development model
Understanding the nature of poverty
Monitoring outcomes andevaluating impact
Choosing poverty reductionobjectives
Defining strategy for poverty reduction and growth including: - Macro and structural policies - Governance - Sectoral policies and programs - Realistic costing and funding
Implementation of programsand policies
Actors and participatory processes
including:
- Central government agencies and inter- ministerial groups - Parliaments and other representative structures - The public, including the poor - Civil society - External partners
Poverty Reduction Strategy process
Page 5
Poverty Analysis
Sector Diagnostics
PRSP Policies and programs
Link to the budget
COUNTRY
DONORS
Support for analysis and consultations
Consultations
Mon
itorin
g
Architecture to improve aid effectiveness
Assistance StrategiesDonor programs:Projects, including budget supportAdvisory and Analytical Work
Feedback mechanisms
Page 6
Shared growth and equality of opportunity require a broader concept of poverty that encompasses non-economic dimensions such as: access to opportunities empowerment subjective well-being health, education, shelter gender equality participation and “voice”
So what should be monitored?
Page 7
2. Developments in poverty measurement
Despite consensus that poverty is multi-dimensional, the expanded definition is still moving “from the periphery to the core”: 1980s – inclusion of nutrition, education and health 1990s – Human Development Indicators Since 2000 – centrality of “well-being” and
empowerment CWIQ – annual measure of access, usage, &
satisfaction with services to give advance warning of future impact
Poverty maps – address spatial correlates of poverty (isolation/accessibility, market access)
Page 8
But -- measuring non-economic dimensions involves methodological challenges
Indicators should be: relevant to policy makers and decision makers cheap and easy to collect relevant to interventions unambiguous measures of progress
Finding non-economic indicators is more complicated because they: may change more slowly than economic indicators can be more difficult to collect may require special surveys Are more context-specific and less “universal” may be less tangible and quantifiable …hence perceived as less objective and rigorous
Page 9
Examples of new approaches: poverty maps and policies
Overlays used to identify correlates of poverty Sri Lanka: Poverty and isolation/accessibility South Africa: Containing a cholera epidemic Tanzania: Changes in poverty and market access Ecuador: Compare poverty maps at two points in time.
… coordinate programs, and improve targeting Cambodia: WFP combined with maps of nutrition,
infrastructure, and vulnerability to flooding & drought to identify potential areas for WFP programs.
Morocco: Maps suggested different mechanism for urban vs. rural areas.
Vietnam: Validated targeting approach of Program 135. Mexico: PROGRESA & Oportunidades South Africa: Municipal grant amounts based on estimated
no. of poor
Page 10
Page 11
Tracking the impact of education of poverty and mobility
Poverty and access to education: Importance of secondary education for
poverty reduction grew in 1990s Access for poorer households remains low But education has potential to enlarge
opportunities for mobility out of low paying
agriculture sector.
Page 12
Change in benefit incidence for secondary education, 1990s
11
6
1719
5
13
59
32
2023
42
26
47
29
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
Early 90s Late 90s Early 90s Late 90s Early 90s Late 90s Early 90s Late 90s
Uganda Ghana Indonesia Vietnam
Source: For Uganda, Mpuga and Canagarahah 2004; for Ghana, Canagarajah and Ye 2001; for Indonesia, World Bank 1993 and Lanjouw, Pradhan, Saadah, Sayed and Sparrow 2001; for Vietnam, World Bank 2000.
Poorest quintileRichest quintile
Tracking impact of secondary education on productivity and mobility
Page 13
Tracking inclusion in financial markets
Systematic information on household
financial assets in developing countries
remains sparse To date, tracking access relies on
combining data from HHS and data on
penetration of financial institutions Findings: financial inclusion of the poor still
a challenge
Page 14
Financial inclusion of the poor…still a challengeFinancial inclusion of the poor…still a challenge
Page 15
Selecting indicators to monitor empowerment
Definitions focus on choice, participation, control and influence, ownership, voice and means of overcoming oppression
Challenging to measure because: Not a unitary concept: intrinsic/ instrumental,
universal/ context specific, individual/ collective, subjective/objective?
multiple levels and dimensions not directly observable, but must be measured
through proxies
Page 16
Monitoring the impact of reforms on empowerment and social inclusion
Measuring Empowerment and Social Inclusion in Nepal tracked effects of decentralization policy and rural
water supply and sanitation project on gender, caste and ethnic relations
found that greater focus on livelihood interventions was called for to reduce influence of caste and ethnicity
Impact Evaluation of Honduras Community-Based Education monitored impact of reforms on community
empowerment with respect to influencing school management
identified necessity of long-term government commitment to reducing power imbalances between elites and indigenous population within communities
Page 17
3. Problems in collecting data with regularity
Incomplete administrative data (electoral registers, identity cards)
Selecting indicators reflects a long social process Under-representation of “invisible” populations Difficulties in coordination, duplication,
redundancies Few incentives to participate or relinquish space Weak demand (interest?) from decision-makers Without common purpose, formal obligations
don’t work
Page 18
4. Practical aspects of organizing monitoring at the national level
Choice of institutional lead critical - more effective if a single agency close to center of government
Champion important – but dangerous to tie system to a personality
Coordination is the greatest challenge: process, advocacy, political leadership critical
Promote monitoring within line ministries; change incentives and capacity
National statistical agencies: ensure complementarity with existing systems and plans
Increase dissemination, training/statistical literacy
Page 19
Practical aspects of monitoring at the local level
Involve local governments: limit indicators to reduce burden and increase
compliance Central quality control mechanism Support and capacity-building, provide
feedback Important that those responsible for collecting data
understand how they will be used Build on local civil society, encourage local
accountability and dissemination
Page 20
Thank you!
www.worldbank.org/poverty