Poverty and Natural Resource Management in the Central Highlands of Eritrea

7/30/2019 Poverty and Natural Resource Management in the Central Highlands of Eritrea

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Rijksuniversiteit Groningen

Poverty and Natural Resource Management in the Central

Highlands of Eritrea

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in deEconomische Wetenschappen

aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningenop gezag van de

Rector Magnificus, dr. F. Zwarts,in het openbaar te verdedigen op

maandag 28 november 2005

om 14.45 uur

door

Bereket Araya Tesfamicael

geboren op 1 januari 1968te Asmara (Eritrea)


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Promotores: Prof. Dr. Ir. C. SchweigmanProf. Dr. A.J. M. Schoot Uiterkamp

Prof. Dr. B.W. Lensink

Co-promotor: Dr. S. Nonhebel

Beoordelingscommissie : Prof.dr. J. B. OpschoorProf.dr. C.J. Jepma

Prof.dr. J. van Andel


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Acknowledgements

I owe much gratitude to many people for their help and friendship during my

stay in the Netherlands. A great number of people have contributed to this bookin one way or another, and I would like to take the opportunity to mention

several of them. First, however, I would like to express my deepest gratitude tothe Netherlands Universities Foundation for International Co-operation

(NUFFIC) for financing my research. I gratefully acknowledge also the Collegeof Business and Economics, University of Asmara for giving me a study leave topursue my Ph.D. research.

I am greatly indebted to my Promotors Prof. Caspar Schweigman, Prof. Ton

Schoot Uiterkamp, Prof Robert Lensink and Dr. Sanderine Nonhebel for their

continuous support and encouragement. Their professional advice andconstructive suggestions were essential for this thesis. Especially, I would like to

thank Caspar for his great interest in this study and his close guidancethroughout the years of my study. Without his support, this study would not

have come to completion. His enthusiasm and friendliness were also constantsources of encouragement.

I would like to gratefully acknowledge Dr. Huib Hengsdijk of Plant ResearchInternational, Wageneingen University, for allowing me to use his TCG

software and for spending considerable time in generating relevant data using

parameters representing the conditions in the Central Highlands of Eritrea. I alsothank Dr. Ruerd Ruben and Dr. Kees Praagman for their comments on the

statistical analysis of the data. Special thanks as well to Yoeri Zwols for his

assistance with the GAMS software.

Many people have helped me during my fieldwork in Eritrea. I would like to

specially mention Dr Woldesellasie Ogbazghi, head of the Department of LandResource and Environment at the University of Asmara and his seniorundergraduate students, as well as Mr. Dawit Ghiorgis, head of Planning

Department in the Ministry of Agriculture. I also want to thank Mr. Senai

Woldeab, Mr. Abraham Gebrekirstos and my brothers, Tsegai, Fessehazion andHabtom for their help with data collection.

The CDS staff, Mr. Arthur de Boer, Mr. Hans Paul Klijnsma and Dr. Pieter

Boele van Hensbroek deserve my gratitude for the lively environment theycreated for me both at the office and outside. I would also like to extend my

gratitude to Dr. Clemens Lutz and to members of the Office for InternationalRelations, Madeleine, Eric, Marieke and Anita. I would like also to thank all my


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friends who made my study life in the Netherlands easy and enjoyable. Specialthanks to my friends Maarten van Ommen, Asmerom Atewebrhan, Bereket

Mehari and Fitsum Ghebregiorgis.

I am forever indebted to my father Araya Tesfamicael and my mother Abrehet

Ghebrewold for being the wonderful loving and caring parents that they are andfor making sure that I continued my study even at the most difficult times. Last,

but certainly not least, my heartfelt thanks to my wife, Tigisti Msghna and mychildren Yafet and Batseba. Tigisti has always been of great moral support and

happily took the burden of family responsibility so that I could concentrate onmy study.

Ebenezer thus far has the Lord helped us (1 samuel 7:12). I am grateful toGod for helping me to see a successful conclusion of this long journey.

Bereket Araya


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Table of Contents

Acknowledgements i

List of Tables ixList of Figures xiii

List of Abbreviations xv

Chapter 1 Introduction 1

1.1 Background of the study 1

1.2 Statement of the problem 2

1.3 Objectives of the study 4

1.4 Methodology of the study 4

1.5 Organization of the study 6

Chapter 2 Agricultural Intensification, Agricultural

Productivity and Land Degradation in Africa 9

2.1 Introduction 9

2.2 Performance of agriculture in Africa 10

2.3 Land degradation 122.4 Agricultural intensification 14

2.5 Understanding farmers decisions for agricultural intensification 17

2.5.1 Poverty and land degradation 18

2.5.2 Land tenure and land degradation 19

Chapter 3 Agriculture, EnergyandLandDegradationin

Eritrea 23

3.1 Introduction 23

3.2 The state of Eritrean agriculture 23

3.2.1 Land size and land use 23

3.2.2 Crop production 253.2.3 Livestock 30

3.3 Energy and forestry in Eritrea 31

3.3.1 Energy 323.3.2 Forests and woodlands 33

3.4 Land degradation 37

3.5 The causes of land degradation in Eritrea 39

3.5.1 Direct causes of land degradation 393.5.2 Indirect causes of land degradation 43

3.6 Summary 49


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Chapter 4 ModelStructure and Approach 51

4.1 Introduction 51

4.2 Theoretical foundations of farm household modelling 51

4.3 Bio-economic modelling approaches 53

4.3.1 Classification of bio-economic models 53

4.4 The structure and major components of the BEM of the farming 55system in the Highlands of Eritrea 55

4.4.1 Structure of the bio-economic model 56

4.4.2 Interactions between various components of the model 574.4.3 Socio-economic components of the bio-economic model 594.4.4 Biophysical components of the bio-economic model 61

4.5 Conclusions 62

Chapter 5 TheField Research 65

5.1 Introduction 65

5.2 Methodology of the field research 655.2.1 General farm household survey 66

5.2.2 In-depth farm household survey 675.2.3 Field measurements 67

5.3 The research area and the research villages 68

5.3.1 The Central Highlands of Eritrea 685.3.2 The research villages 70

5.4 Household resources 74

5.4.1 Labour 74

5.4.2 Land 76

5.5 Crop production 785.5.1 Crop yield 79

5.5.2 Labour and oxen requirement 815.5.3 Land management practices 83

5.6 Livestock 87

5.7 Tree planting 90

5.8 Summary 91

Chapter 6 Bio-economicModel of the Farming Systems in the

Highlands of Eritrea 93

6.1 Introduction 93

6.2 Mathematical modelling of the farming systems 93

6.3 The planning year and the planning period 94

6.4 Land use decisions and land constraints 95

6.4.1 Tree growth and the land constraints 996.5 Crop production and consumption modelling 102

6.5.1 Crop residues 1036.5.2 Consumption, buying and selling of crops 105


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6.6 Wood and grass production 106

6.6.1 Grass production 108

6.7 Livestock modelling 109

6.7.1 Feed availability and livestock 110

6.7.2 Animal power requirement and livestock 1116.7.3 Milk production 113

6.7.4 Manure production and use 1136.8 Fertilizer balance 114

6.9 Energy modelling 116

6.10 Population and labour 116

6.11 Cash constraint 119

6.12 Land management, crop yield, soil and nutrient loss 122

6.13 Objective function 123

Chapter 7 EstimatingModel Parameters 125

7.1 Introduction 1257.2 Land 125

7.3 Labour supply and requirement 126

7.3.1 Labour supply 1267.3.2 Labour requirements 128

7.4 Crop yields and agricultural technologies 130

7.4.1 The Technical Coefficient Generator 1317.4.2 A statistical analysis of results from TCG 134

7.5 Sustainability indicators 135

7.5.1 Soil erosion 135

7.5.2 Nitrogen balance 1387.6 Inputs and outputs of livestock activities 141

7.7 Grass and wood production 143

7.7.1 Grass production 1437.7.2 Wood production 144

7.8 Food and fuel requirements 145

7.8.1 Food requirement and consumption patterns 1457.8.2 Fuel: level and composition 146

7.9 Some empirical evidences 147

7.9.1 Fertilizer and crop yield 147

7.9.2 Estimation of soil loss and run-off 1497.9.3 Soil conservation and crop yield 155

7.10 Prices 158

7.11 Conclusions 159


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Chapter 8 Base Run and Sensitivity Analysis 161

8.1 Introduction 161

8.2 Results of the base model 161

8.2.1 Land use 1638.2.2 Soil conservation 169

8.2.3 Organic and inorganic fertilizers 1708.3 Livestock 171

8.4 Soil erosion and nitrogen balance 173

8.4.1 Soil erosion 1738.4.2 Nitrogen loss 174

8.5 Income 175

8.6 Sensitivity analysis for some parameters 176

8.7 Household-level model 177

8.7.1 Results of the household model 1798.8 Conclusions 182

Chapter 9 Discussionof Model Results: Scenario Analysis 183

9.1 Introduction 183

9.2 Scenario 1. Removal of subsidy on fertilizer 184

9.3 Scenario 2. Introduction of energy saving stoves 186

9.4 Scenario 3. Mechanization 188

9.5 Scenario 4. Irrigation 190

9.6 Scenario 5. Food aid for soil conservation and tree planting 191

9.6.1 Scenario 5.1 FFW for soil conservation 192

9.6.2 Scenario 5.2 FFW for tree planting 194

Chapter 10 Summaryand Conclusions 197

10.1 Introduction 19710.2 Some socio-economic and biophysical features 199

10.3 Modelling land use and land management decisions 201

10.4 Some observation from the field studies 203

10.5 Land use and land management decisions: Results from the base runmodel 204

10.6 Results of alternative technologies and interventions 206

10.7 Final remarks and policy recommendations 208

References 213

Appendix 1 Summary of the Linear Programming Model 227

Appendx 2 Crop Yield and Soil Loss Functions for Maiahaand Zibanuna 233


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Appendix 3 Nutrient and Energy Related Data, Prices andInitial Values 235

Appendix 4 Results of Sensitivity Tests on Fuelwood Pricesand Discount Rates 237

Nederlandse Samenvatting 239


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List of Tables

Table 2.1 Agricultural indicators by region 10

Table 2.2 Global estimates of soil degradation, by region and land use 12

Table 3.1 Land use in Eritrea, 2001 24Table 3.2 Cultivated area (1,000 ha.) and yields (100 kg/ha.) 1994 2003 26

Table 3.3 Indicators of agricultural performance 27Table 3.4 Livestock population by region, 1997 31

Table 3.5 Energy demand by fuel type and sector in 1998 33

Table 3.6 Natural forest vegetation areas of Eritrea by region (km2) 34

Table 3.7 Permanent and temporary closures in Eritrea 35

Table 3.8 Summary of plantations 36Table 3.9 Soil erosion and deposition in Eritrea 38

Table 3.10 Tropical Livestock Units and carrying capacity by region in

Eritrea in 1997 42Table 3.11 Population below the poverty line in Eritrea 47

Table 5.1 Land and rural population in the Central Highlands, 2000. 69Table 5.2 Family size and household composition, 2002 75

Table 5.3 Croplands in the Central Highlands, 2002 76Table 5.4 Soil quality on croplands in Maiaha, Zibanuna and Embaderho,

2002 78Table 5.5 Crop yield (kg/ha), 2001 79

Table 5.6 Farmers perception of changes in cereal production and

productivity 80

Table 5.7 Reasons for yield decline over the past 20 years 81Table 5.8 Labour requirements for crop production 82Table 5.9 The use of manure and chemical fertilizers 86Table 5.10 Farmers perception on the need and extent of terracing on own

croplands 87Table 5.11 Ownership of Livestock in the Central Highlands, 2002 88

Table 5.12 Ownership of livestock in the Central Highlands, by region2002 88

Table 5.13 Number of livestock and carrying capacity in Maiaha, Zibanunaand Embaderho, 2002 89

Table 5.14 Eucalyptus plantations in the study villages, 2002. 90Table 7.1 Total land areas in these study villages by land type 126Table 7.2 Labour availability 127Table 7.3 Labour requirement for constructing stone bunds on different

land categories 129Table 7.4 Design criteria for various cropping options in the Technical

Coefficient Generator 132


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Table 7.5 Cobb-Douglas yield functions (coefficients and t-statisticsusing Ordinary Least Square regression) 136

Table 7.6 Soil loss functions (coefficients and t-statistics usingOrdinary Least Square regression) 137

Table 7.7 Annual nitrogen inputs via rain and biological fixation, and

coefficients of nitrogen transfer 139Table 7.8 Feed requirement, milk production and live weight gain of

livestock 142Table 7.9 Model sustainable rangeland utilization. 143

Table 7.10 Per capita energy consumption by fuel type for rural areas ofthe Central Highlands 146

Table 7.11 Fertilizer trials for barley and wheat in the highlands of Eritrea

1998 and 1999 148Table 7.12 Yield responses by barley to the application of chemical

fertilizer in Zoba Debub, 1998, 149

Table 7.13 The Universal Soil Loss Equation adapted for Ethiopia 151Table 7.14 Annual soil loss (t/ha) in Afdeyu catchments 1988-1998 152Table 7.15 Soil loss from different land categories and land use (tons/ha) 153

Table 7.16 Rainfall and annual run-off (mm) on experimental plots (1988-

1998, Afdeyu) 154Table 7.17 Annual run-off from different land categories and land

use (mm) 154Table 7.18 Descriptive statistics of variables from harvest sample (Barley

1987-1998) 156

Table 7.19 Wheat and barley production functions 157

Table 7.20 Barley and wheat yields (kg) with and without the applicationof stone bunds 157Table 7.21 Area occupied by stone bunds 158Table 8.1 Main characteristics of the study villages and values of

parameters used in the base model 162Table 8.2 Some results of the base model 165

Table 8.3 Number of households by source of labour or oxen for cropcultivation in the Central Highlands 178

Table 8.4 Characteristics of the various household categories in Maiaha 179

Table 8.5 Simulated levels of cropland (ha) and livestock (head) by typeof household in Maiaha 180

Table 9.1 Brief description of the different scenarios 184Table A1 Summary of the Linear Programming Model 227

Table A2 Cobb-Douglas yield functions (coefficients and t-statistics usingOrdinary Least Square regression) Maiaha village 233

Table A3 Cobb-Douglas yield functions (coefficients and t-statistics using

Ordinary Least Square regression) Zibanuna village 233


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Table A4 Soil loss functions (coefficients and t-statistics using OrdinaryLeast Square regression) Maiaha village 234

Table A5 Soil loss function (coefficients and t-statistics using OrdinaryLeast Squares regression) Zibanuna village 234

Table A6 Nutrients and Energy-related data 235

Table A7 Buying and selling prices used in the model 235Table A8 Initial values of some parameters 235


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List of Figures

Figure 1.1 The study area 7Figure 3.1 Total area cultivated under cereals and pulses in Eritrea 27

Figure 3.2 Yields of cereals and pulses in Eritrea, 1994-2004 28Figure 3.3 Annual rainfall in Asmara (Central Highlands Zone) 29

Figure 4.1 Household decision-making 56Figure 4.2. Linkages between household resource endowment, household

objectives and the various economic activities 58Figure 5.1 Cropping calendar in the Central Highlands 83Figure 6.1 Planning period and planning year 95

Figure 6.2 Periods when crop residues are produced and applied formulching 104

Figure 6.3 Crop production and seed requirement 106

Figure 6.4 Periods where animal power is required for transport ofmanure, crop and crop residues 112

Figure 7.1 Structure of nitrogen transfer model 138Figure 7.2 Changes in soil nitrogen for different levels of fertilizer

application 140Figure 7.3 Food consumption patterns in Eritrea 146Figure 8.1 Simulated land use in Embaderho 167

Figure 8.2 Simulated land use in Maiaha 167Figure 8.3 Simulated land use in Zibanuna 167

Figure 8.4 Simulated land use by land type: Embaderho 168

Figure 8.5 Simulated land use by land type: Maiaha 168Figure 8.6 Simulated land use by land type: Zibanuna 168

Figure 8.7 Simulated average soil loss from croplands 173

Figure 8.8 Simulated average soil loss 174

Figure 8.9 Simulated nitrogen loss from croplands 174Figure 8.10 Simulated per capita income 175

Figure 8.11 Net per capita income: comparison of village and householdmodels 180

Figure A1 Prices of cereals and pulses in Asmara 234

Figure A2 Evolution of livestock prices 1993-2003 234

Figure A3 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Embaderho under differentwood prices 238

Figure A4 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Embaderho under differentdiscount rates 238

Figure A5 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Maiaha under differentwood prices 239

Figure A6 Simulated eucalyptus plantation in Maiaha under differentdiscount rates 239


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List of Abbreviations

ARS Afdeyu Research StationBEMs Bio-economic models

CHL Central HighlandsDAP Diammonium Phosphate

EHRS Ethiopian Highlands Reclamation StudyFAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FFW Food for WorkGOE Government of Eritreakg Kilogram

km KilometerMOA Ministry of Agriculture

MOEM Ministry of Energy and Mines

NGOs Non-government organizationsNRM Natural Resource Management

quintal 100 kilogramRUSLE Revised Soil Loss Equation

SSA Sub-Saharan AfricaSWC Soil and Water ConservationTCG Technical Coefficient Generator

TLU Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU)USLE Universal Soil Loss Equation

ZDE Zoba Debub East

ZDW Zoba Debub WestZM Zoba Maekel


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Poverty and Natural Resource Management in the Central Highlands of Eritrea