Poul_RoRo Fleet 1003 - Maritime

8/13/2019 Poul_RoRo Fleet 1003 - Maritime

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Oct-10 1

Maritime Development Center

RoRo & RoPax Market

Challenges and Opportunities

Source: Navitaship; ShipPax


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Agenda

Before the Crisis

RoRo Market

RoPax Market

Challenges

Opportunities Questions

Oct-10 2


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Before the Crisis

RoRo/RoPax markets enjoyed healthy growth in

freight volumes.

Development and expansion of route network by

operators. High profitability.

Charter market enjoyed historical high rates.

Large orderbooks and high contract values. Vintage tonnage went through life extension.

Deficit of tonnage and high demand.

Oct-10 3


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What does the market look like in termsof tonnage profile?

Oct-10 4


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Oct-10 5

RoRo Definition

Vessel with RoRo Capacity

Minimum 800 Lanemeters Passenger capacity of maximum 12 persons

Maximum 1,800 cars

Maximum 2.0 cars per Lanemeter(To avoid typical car carriers)


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Oct-10 6

800-1200 LM26%

1200-1700 LM27%

1700-2200 LM17%

2200-2700 LM9%

2700-3200 LM8%

3200+ LM13%

RoRo Fleet Composition(No. of Vessels)

Average Age: 19.8 YearsFleet: 443 Vessels / 865,022 Lanemeters


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800-1200 LM13%

1200-1700 LM20%

1700-2200 LM18%2200-2700 LM

11%

2700-3200 LM12%

3200+ LM26%

RoRo Fleet Composition(Capacity)

Average size: 1,986 LM


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-

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

No.ofVesse

ls

RoRo Delivery Profile

Delivered On Order Scrapped/Lost

443 Vessels Delivered

38 Vessels on Order

114 Vessels Scrapped/Lost


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-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Lanemeters

RoRo Size Development


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0-4 Years12%

5-9 Years12%

10-14 Years16%

15-19 Years8%20-24 Years

8%

25-30 Years18%

>30 Years26%

RoRo Age Profile

Average Age: 19.8 Years

Average in 2007 abt 21 years


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-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2011 2012 2013

No.ofVessels

RoRo Order Book

800-1200 1700-2200 2700-3200 3200+

Total Orderbook38 Vessels128,847 Lanemeters14.9 % of Fleet

Total Orderbook 1Q 2008

Abt 60 VesselsAbt 200,000 Lanmeters

Abt 19% of Fleet


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-6,0%

-4,0%

-2,0%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

-

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

1.000.000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FleetGrowthRate

Lanemeter

s

RoRo Fleet Development

Total Fleet Capacity Total Est. Fleet Capcity Growth Rate Est. Growth Rate

2009 scrapping: 32,000 LM

2010 scrapping: 90,000 LM (ytd)


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0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

EUR/Day

RoRo T/C Rates Development(1 year Moving Average)

1,251 - 1,750 LM 1,751 - 2,250 LM 2,251 - 2,750 LM

-30%


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RoPax Definition

Vessel with RoRo and Passenger Capacity

Minimum 800 Lanemeters Passenger capacity of above 12 persons

Passenger capacity of maximum 2,000 persons

Minimum 1.25 Lanemeters per Passenger(To avoid typical ferries)


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800-1199 LM17%

1200-1699 LM29%

1700-2199 LM31%

2200-2699 LM14%

2700-3199 LM4%

>3200 LM5%

RoPax Fleet Composition(No. of Vessels)

Average Age: 16.7 yearsFleet: 299 Vessels / 556,963 Lanemeters

Average Age in 2007: Abt 17 years


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800-1199 LM9%

1200-1699 LM

23%

1700-2199 LM33%

2200-2699 LM18%

2700-3199 LM7%

>3200 LM10%

RoPax Fleet Composition(Capacity)

Average Size: 1,863 LanemetersAverage Pax: 578 Passengers


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-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1970

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

No.ofVessels

RoPax Delivery Profile

Delivered On Order


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Oct-10 18

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

1970

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Lanemeters

RoPax Size Development


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Oct-10 19

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1970

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Passengers

Average Passengers per RoPax Vessel


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Oct-10 20

0-4 Years15%

5-9 Years18%

10-14 Years15%15-19 Years

17%

20-24 Years13%

25-30 Years5%

>30 Years17%

RoPax Age Profile

Average Age: 16.7 Years


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Oct-10 21

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2011 2012

No.ofVesse

ls

RoPax Order Book

1700-2200 LM 2200-2700 LM 2700-3200 LM 3200+ LM

Total Orderbook19 Vessels49,349 Lanemeters8.9 % of Fleet

Total Orderbook 1Q 2008

Abt 38 Vessels

Abt 90,000 LanmetersAbt 16% of Fleet


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Oct-10 22

-2,0%

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

-

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GrowthRate

Lanemeters

RoPax Fleet Development

Total Fleet Capacity Total Est. Fleet Capaity Growth Rate Est. Growth Rate


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Oct-10 23

Challenges


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Oct-10 24

Market Conditions

Soft demand for modern RoRo and RoPax tonnagewithin last 18 months, with rates down abt 30-35% from

peak in Spring 2008.

Surplus tonnage in the market, particularly RoPax having

a number of laid up vessels.

Order book delivering additional tonnage to a saturated

market. In 2011 more than 50% of the current order book

will be delivered. Yet only weak signs economic upturn.

Expectation of further 18-24 months of depressed

markets to be bridged.


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Oct-10 25

Opportunites


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Oct-10 26

Factors

Low shipbuilding activity, and order books reduced to

less than 15 pct for RoRo and less than 10 pct for

RoPax.

High age profile (20/17 years average).

High scrapping activity for RoRo 90,000 LM (~10%)

ytd.

Political pressure to put trailers at Sea.


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Oct-10 27

RoPax vs. Ferries

RoPax tonnage replacing vintage Ferry tonnage.

RoPax provides more freight capacity, and less

passengers, in line with todays travel/traffic pattern.

More steady year round freight earnings.

Ageing Ferry fleet fail to comply with new SOLAS 2010

requirements coming into force by Oct 2010.


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Oct-10 28

0-4 Years

10%

5-9 Years12%

10-14 Years

9%

15-19 Years10%

20-24 Years

16%

25-30 Years14%

>30 Years

29%

Ferry Age Profile

Average Age: 21.8 years


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Oct-10 29

Political Pressure

Focus on lower emissions

Trucks and trailers by sea in stead of road

EU subsidies to new lines (e.g. LD Lines St. Nazaire/Gijon)

Modernisation of fleet to improve economy of scale Larger vessels to reduce emission level per transported unit.

Other political measures

Road pricing being introduced

Road safety

Truck free days

More restrictive driving hours / Resting requirement


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Oct-10 30

Limited Newbuilding

Number of capable shipyards is limited

RoRo

4-5 yards in Asia (this number is increasing)

8-10 yards in Europe

RoPax

2-3 yards in Asia (this number is increasing)

5-6 yards in Europe

After crisis Korean and Chinese yards have again started to focus more on

specialised tonnage including RoRo and RoPax.

Highly sophisticated vessels, compared to standard tonnage

High building cost

High degree of specialisation for each design

Short building series

Prices have not been reduced to the degree expected during crisis.


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Oct-10 31

Forecast3-5 years

Soft market will continue through 2011.

Continued scrapping of RoRo and expected scrapping of

RoPax/Ferries from 2012.

Scrapping of RoRos will off-set newbuilding capacity through 2013.

Current surplus RoPax vessels will be absorbed by the market

during next 1-2 years.

Balanced supply/demand expected again during 2012.

Continued growth in European freight volumes.

Further consolidation of operators expected (like DFDS/Norfolkline) Focus on economy of scale Larger more cost effective vessels.

Limited newbuilding activity in 2009 and 2010, leaving a supply

deficit in the market from 2013.

Increased overall demand.


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ShipbrokersSales & Purchase Newbuildings Chartering - Valuations

September 2010

Question?
http://www.navitaship.com/

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Poul_RoRo Fleet 1003 - Maritime