Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined):

ENSEMBLES General Assembly, Prague, Czech Republic, 12-16 November 2007

Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined):DJF, DISAT, FMI, FUB, LUND, NOA, PAS, SMHI, SYKE, UEA, UNIK, UREADMM

ENSEMBLES Work Package 6.2

Parallel session, Monday 12 November 2007


WP 6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change

Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change.

Task 6.2.a Response surfaces and impact thresholds

Task 6.2.b Scenario impacts and risk assessment

Task 6.2.c Evaluating the impacts of extreme events


Task 6.2.1: Preparation of impact models for scenario analysis (DJF, DISAT, FUB, SMHI, UREADMM) (Completed)

Task 6.2.2: Collection of data for the calibration and testing of impact models and as reference data for model input (DISAT, FUB, ULUND, UREADMM) (Completed)

Task 6.2.3: Design of sensitivity analyses based on existing climate projections and some initial performance tests (FUB, SYKE, ULUND, UNIK) (Completed)

Task 6.2.4: Estimation of critical impacts thresholds for water resources based on historical drought and flood events (SMHI, UNIK) (Completed)

Task 6.2.5: Development of models for understanding and evaluating the impacts of extremes. These models will operate within a probabilistic framework, incorporating where possible effects of adaptation and acclimatisation to climate change (FUB, NOA, UEA, ULUND) (Ongoing)

Task 6.2.6: Analyses of arrival times of extremes based on long observed records (UEA) (Ongoing) Task 6.2.7: Development of a GIS environment within which impacts models will be developed and analyzed.

(Completed) Task 6.2.8: Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops, soil carbon and

nitrogen, and water resources (DJF, DISAT, SMHI, SYKE, UNIK) (Ongoing) Task 6.2.9: Preliminary scenario impacts and risk assessment from available climate projections for selected

models of crops, runoff, permafrost, soils (DJF, DISAT, FMI, SMHI, SYKE) (Completed) Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact models for crops,

human health, forest fire, forest damage, intense precipitation, drought, wind and temperature extremes from available climate projections (DISAT, FMI, FUB, NOA, PAS, UEA, ULUND, UREADMM) (Ongoing)

Task 6.2.11: Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles Prediction System to impact models for estimating risks of extremes and risks of impacts (All partners) (Ongoing)

New Task 6.2.12: Compilation and analysis of final results and drafting of joint paper on the application of probabilistic climate projections for assessing risks of impacts in Europe (DJF, DISAT, FMI, SMHI, SYKE)

New Task 6.2.13: Compilation of final model results of the impacts of climate extremes, analysis of the uncertainties in estimates, and drafting of a joint paper on the impacts of projected changes in climate extremes on climate-sensitive sectors in Europe (DISAT, FMI, FUB, NOA, PAS, UEA, ULUND, UREADMM)

WP 6.2 Tasks: Progress to date


Deliverables (completed)

Deliverable 6.2: First-phase impact models to predict damage to human activities, the environment and tropical annual crops from climate extremes: e.g. wind storm, drought, flood and heat stressDue Feb 2006; Delivered October 2006 (Month 26) (UEA and Partners)

Deliverable 6.3: Calibrated and tested crop, forest, hydrology and energy impact models; baseline data and scenarios for constructing impact response surfacesDue Feb 2006; Delivered April 2006 (Month 20) (SYKE and Partners)

Deliverable 6.7: Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models Due Feb 2007 + 3 months; Delivered: Jul 2007 (Month 35) (SYKE and Partners)

Deliverable 6.8: Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to health, flood risk, agriculture, forest and property damage Due Feb 2007 + 3 months; Delivered: Jul 2007 (Month 35) (UEA and Partners)

Deliverable 6.9: Report on an intercomparison study of modelled, Europe-wide forest fire risk for present day conditionsDue Aug 2006; Delivered September 2006 (Month 25) (NOA and FMI)


Deliverables (work in progress)

Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (D2B.28, joint deliverable with RT2B - SYKE and Partners)

Deliverable 6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Due Feb 2009 (Month 54) (SYKE and Partners)

Deliverable 6.15: Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (UEA and Partners)


Milestones (attained) Milestone 6.2: Completion of data collection for calibration and testing of impact

models and as reference data for model dataDue Aug 2005; Delivered Aug 2005 (Month 12) (UEA and Partners)

Milestone 6.3: Preliminary definitions of impact thresholds for development of probabilistic impacts assessments, taking into account responses to mean and extreme perturbationsDue Feb 2006; Delivered Apr 2006 (Month 20) (SYKE and Partners)

Milestone 6.4: Completion of preparation of most impact modelsDue Feb 2006; Delivered Apr 2006 (Month 20) (SYKE and Partners)

Milestone 6.6: Sensitivity analysis and construction of preliminary impact response surfaces for selected impact modelsDue Aug 2006; Delivered October 2006 (Month 26) (SYKE and Partners)

Milestone 6.12: Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results (location to be arranged)Due April 2007; Helsinki Meeting April 2007 (Month 32); Report November 2007 (Month 39) (SYKE, FMI and Partners)


Milestones (in sight)

Milestone 6.13: Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models (in line with Major milestones 6.1 and 6.2)Due Aug 2007 (Month 36); Delayed to Nov 2007 (Month 39) (WP6.2 and RT2B)

Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact modelsDue Feb 2008 + 6 months (Month 48) (SYKE and all Partners)

Major Milestone 6.4 (original DoW): Completion of probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts, and impacts at seasonal to decadal timescales for the core activities: crops, water resources, forests, energy, insurance and human health Due Month 54 (WP6.2 and 6.3)


Year 1: Sep 04-Aug 05 Year 2: Sep 05-Aug 06 Year 3: Sep 06-Aug 07 Year 4: Sep 07-Aug 08 Year 5: Sep 08-Aug 09

Deliverable or milestone 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13-15 16-18 19-21 22-24 25-27 28-30 31-33 34-36 37-39 40-42 43-45 46-48 49-51 52-54 55-57 58-60

D6.2 First phase of damage prediction

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D6.3 Tested impact models D D6.7 Report on response

surface vs. multiple scenarios approaches

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D6.8 Preliminary report on extremes

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D6.9 Forest fire risk study D D6.13 Linking probabilistic

projections to impact models

D

D6.14 Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections

D

D6.15 Paper: assessing uncertainty in climate extremes and impacts

D

M6.2 Completion of data collection

M

M6.3 Preliminary definitions of impact thresholds

M

M6.4 Prepare impact models M M6.6 Sensitivity analysis and

impact response surfaces

M

M6.12 WP 6.2 meeting M M6.13 Protocol for obtaining

prob. information from the Ensembles Prediction System

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M6.14

Prob. assessment of climate change impacts using impact models

M

MM6.1 Set up input data for impacts modelling. Delivery of input data.

M

MM6.2 Completion of impact model calibration and validation

M

MM6.4 Completion of prob. assessments of climate change impacts

M

WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables

6-monthly report

Annualreport


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WP 6.2: Milestones & deliverables

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Prague presentations

5 minutes reporting:

Recent progress since Helsinki (status, not details!)

Plans for the next reporting phase

Your expected contributions to the deliverables and milestones in the Detailed Implementation Plan (DIP)

Other points arising


ENSEMBLES GENERAL ASSEMBLY

WORK PACKAGE 6.2 MEETING: MONDAY 12 NOVEMBER 2007 10:00 – 12:30 10:00 – 10:10 Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki (SYKE)

Welcome and objectives of meeting 10:10 10:15 Tom Holt, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK (UEA) 10:15 – 10:20 Christos Giannakopoulos, National Observatory of Athens, Greece (NOA) 10:20 – 10:25 Anna Maria Jönsson/Lars Bärring, University of Lund, Sweden (ULUND) 10:25 10:30 Gregor Leckebusch/Markus Donat, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

(FUB) 10.30 – 10.35 Malgorzata Szwed, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS) 10:35 10:40 Ari Venäläinen/Kirsti Jylhä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (FMI) 10:40 – 10:45 Stefan Fronzek/Timothy Carter, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki (SYKE) 10:45 – 10:50 Martina Weiß, University of Kassel, Germany (UNIK) 10:50 – 10:55 ????, Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping (SMHI) 10:55 – 11:00 Marco Bindi, Dept. of Agronomy and Land Management, University of Florence, Italy (DISAT) 11:00 – 11:30 Coffee 11:30 – 11:45 Data needs: joint meeting with RT2B 11:45 – 12:00 Deliverables on extremes 12:00 – 12:15 Deliverables on impact response surfaces 12.15 – 12.30 Other issues 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Joint meeting with RT2B



ENSEMBLES WP 6.2 Meeting, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) & Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, 26-27 April 2007

Back row: Jouni Räisänen, Chris Hewitt, Tom Holt, Tim Carter, Lars Bärring, Sara-Sofia Hellström, Jørgen Olesen, Gregor Leckebusch, Phil Graham, Fredrik Wetterhall

Front row: Maria Vuorinen, Markus Donat, Glen Harris, Marco Bindi, Christos Giannakopoulos, Stefan Fronzek (kneeling), Tove Heidmann, Clare Goodess, Kirsti Jylhä, Martina Weiß


Follow-up to Helsinki

Some points arising:

GCM archive not available in April – has this been solved? Observational data from RT5 (1958- at 25 km spatial resolution)

should be available from September – cf. M. Haylock presentation, 11 am, Wednesday

WP6.2 data requests surveyed; main concern is the timing of data delivery

RCM runs: deadline is December 2007; majority for 1950-2050; some run to 2100; weighting of RCM outputs – cf. J. Christensen presentation, 16.40, Tuesday; Parallel session, 13.30-15.00, Thursday

Seasonality – representation in the response surfaces Non-stationarity – implications for model calibration Scaling – from model grid to larger scale (e.g. river basin)


Deliverables (work in progress)

Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (D2B.28, joint deliverable with RT2B - SYKE and Partners)

Deliverable 6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Due Feb 2009 (Month 54) (SYKE and Partners)

Deliverable 6.15: Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Due Aug 2008 (Month 48) (UEA and Partners)


ENSEMBLES GENERAL ASSEMBLY

WORK PACKAGE 6.2 MEETING: MONDAY 12 NOVEMBER 2007 10:00 – 12:30 10:00 – 10:10 Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki (SYKE)

Welcome and objectives of meeting 10:10 10:15 Tom Holt, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK (UEA) 10:15 – 10:20 Christos Giannakopoulos, National Observatory of Athens, Greece (NOA) 10:20 – 10:25 Anna Maria Jönsson/Lars Bärring, University of Lund, Sweden (ULUND) 10:25 10:30 Gregor Leckebusch/Markus Donat, Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany

(FUB) 10.30 – 10.35 Malgorzata Szwed, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS) 10:35 10:40 Ari Venäläinen/Kirsti Jylhä, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (FMI) 10:40 – 10:45 Stefan Fronzek/Timothy Carter, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki (SYKE) 10:45 – 10:50 Martina Weiß, University of Kassel, Germany (UNIK) 10:50 – 10:55 ????, Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping (SMHI) 10:55 – 11:00 Marco Bindi, Dept. of Agronomy and Land Management, University of Florence, Italy (DISAT) 11:00 – 11:30 Coffee 11:30 – 11:45 Data needs: joint meeting with RT2B 11:45 – 12:00 Deliverables on extremes 12:00 – 12:15 Deliverables on impact response surfaces 12.15 – 12.30 Other issues 12:30 – 14:00 Lunch 14:00 – 15:00 Joint meeting with RT2B

Documents

Potential WP Participants (known absentees underlined):