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International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 795–802

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Potential in New Zealand for use of hydrogen as atransportation fuel

Paul Kruger∗, John Blakeley, Jonathan LeaverSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNITEC Institute of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand

Received 3 April 2002; received in revised form 25 June 2002; accepted 8 July 2002

Abstract

New Zealand imports its vehicle 1eet and essentially all transportation fuel. With introduction of fuel-cell vehicles, NewZealand can become self-su5cient in hydrogen fuel. A study undertaken by the Sustainable Energy Initiatives program atUNITEC evaluates the economic and environmental factors of fossil and non-fossil energy sources for production of hydrogen.It examines the transition for hydrogen fuel from on-board production from hydrocarbons to large-scale centralized electrolyticproduction. The paper extrapolates historic data on population, vehicle transport, and electric energy and examines the basisfor introducing hydrogen fuel into the national economy in the 2010–2050 period.? 2002 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Motor vehicle transportation plays an important role inthe economy of New Zealand, one of the smaller nationsin the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel-opment (OECD). Except for a period of local assemblyof automobiles through the 1990s, New Zealand has im-ported all of its vehicle 1eet. In addition to purchase of newvehicles from the major automobile producers throughoutthe world, New Zealand now imports a large fraction of its1eet as second-hand vehicles from abroad. Since the countryhas only limited indigenous petroleum reserves and re@ningcapacity, import of transportation fuels is a major cost factorin the national economy. Further, New Zealand has o5ciallydeclared that it will strongly attempt to meet its goal forreduction of CO2 emission to the global atmosphere underinternational agreements and local authorities are becomingmore aware of growing air pollution problems from smogproducing emissions in the major metropolitan areas.

These factors have made the potential for introducing hy-drogen fuel as an alternate to fossil fuel of great interest tosmall-developed countries, such as New Zealand. Although

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-650-493-4284; fax: +1-650-493-5122.

E-mail address: kruger@cive.stanford.edu (P. Kruger).

there are no plans for the future to introduce manufacture ofautomobiles and other vehicles in New Zealand, the potentialexists for development of an indigenous industry to producehydrogen fuel in large-enough quantity to provide severalbene@ts:

(1) Introduce a new industrial program into the NewZealand economy.

(2) Reduce the import-export imbalance with an indigenoussupply of transportation fuel.

(3) Provide an opportunity for export of hydrogen fuel tosurrounding Paci@c area countries.

(4) Reduce the magnitude of CO2 emission to the atmo-sphere.

(5) Reduce the emission on smog-forming nitrogen oxidesin metropolitan areas.

(6) Accelerate planning for additional electric energy sup-ply from non-fossil fuel resources.

To evaluate the technical, environmental, and economic as-pects of the potential for changing to hydrogen fuel in NewZealand, a research project was begun in the SustainableEnergy Initiatives program in the School of Civil and Envi-ronmental Engineering at UNITEC Institute of Technologyin Auckland, New Zealand. The project was initiated asa means for students in the school to satisfy the researchrequirement for degree completion. The @rst year eHort

0360-3199/03/$ 30.00 ? 2002 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.PII: S0360 -3199(02)00161 -1

796 P. Kruger et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 795–802

was designed to compile and analyze the necessary data onNew Zealand population, motor vehicle 1eet composition,vehicle tra5c, fuel economy, methods of hydrogen produc-tion, electricity generation and installed power capacity,and examine the infrastructure needed for central and dis-tributed refueling facilities. The project began with a suiteof @ve research studies undertaken by seven students inthe school. Their research results, detailed in Refs. [1–5],are incorporated in this paper which presents the @rst-yearanalysis of the potential for introducing hydrogen fuel intothe New Zealand national economy over the 2010–2050time period.

2. Historic database for transportation in New Zealand

Analysis of the potential for utilization of hydrogen fuelin New Zealand requires estimation of the magnitude ofmotor vehicle transportation in the future when importof fuel-cell vehicles could become signi@cant. However,import of fuel-cell vehicles will require immediate avail-ability of hydrogen fuel. During some transition perioduntil large-scale hydrogen production facilities are con-structed, on-board fossil-fuel reforming could be used inearly model vehicles to provide the hydrogen fuel. Thesemay be the most likely vehicles to be imported for one ortwo decades. But the plans for long-term preparation ofhydrogen production, distribution, storage, and refuelingfacilities needs to be initiated in time to ensure that theeconomic investment is justi@ed. Assurance is also neededthat su5cient primary-energy resources and electric powerare available initially for fossil-fuel reforming on either avery small scale (individual vehicles) or a large scale (cen-tral refueling stations), and subsequently for large-scalewater electrolysis. The historic data required to analyze thepotential for fuel-cell vehicles in New Zealand includesmagnitudes and growth rates of population, vehicle 1eet bytype, annual travel and fuel economy by type, and electricenergy supply and power capacity. These data are beingcompiled from o5cial government sources. The values forthe year 2000 and the mean annual growth rate (m.a.g.r.)are used as initial values in a dynamic model [6] to extrapo-late them to the year 2010 when a signi@cant fuel-cell 1eetcould begin to develop in New Zealand. Estimations aremade for the potential of rapid growth of a hydrogen fuelindustry over the next 40 years. The results are evaluatedto examine the need for additional growth of electric powerto sustain this growth industry.

2.1. Population

Population data are available from the series of NewZealand O5cial Yearbooks [7] and data from Statistics NewZealand [8] compiled in [4]. The population of New Zealandin 1980 was 3.14 million people and has grown steadily atm.a.g.r. of 1:08%=a through 2000. The population in 1990

was 3.363 million people growing at m.a.g.r. of 1:34%=a.The population in 2000 was 3.86 million people and the pro-jected m.a.g.r. through 2010 [8] given in [4] is 0:70%=a. Anextended forecast [8] shows a maximum population around2035 and decline thereafter. This demographic forecast andthe goal of the Energy E5ciency and Conservation Au-thority [9] to reduce waste were used to estimate a secondscenario to compare the potential growth of hydrogen fueldemand under “business as usual” and “with conservation”conditions during the 2010–2050 period.

2.2. Vehicle 4eet

Vehicle 1eet data are available from the Land Trans-port Safety Authority [10]. Detailed compilations were ob-tained for the period 1990–2000 by vehicle type [4] andengine size and fuel type [5]. The number of licensed vehi-cles in New Zealand at the end of 2000 was 2.78 million,of which 1.94 million (70%) were automobiles, with about13% trucks, 13% trailers, 17% motorcycles and mopeds,and 0.5% buses. The growth rate for automobiles and vans(characterized herein as light vehicles) over the 10-yearperiod was 2.22%/a; the growth rate for heavy vehicles(trucks, trailers, and buses) was 0.87%/a. The data also showa marked shift in vehicle engine size from an average of2000 cm3 in 1997 to 2140 cm3 in 1998. Most of the fuelused is petrol (gasoline) comprising about 85% of 1eet con-sumption and diesel (almost 15%), the remainder (0.15%)consists of about 4000 alternate fuel vehicles using, e.g.,LPG, CNG, and electric batteries [5]. Another key statisticis the age distribution, which greatly aHects the 1eet fueleconomy. The average of all categories of licensed motorvehicles (excluding trailers) is about 12 years. Projected ve-hicle 1eet growth through 2021 was estimated [4] to reach3.73 million vehicles at m.a.g.r. of 1.32%/a. In the scenariostep of the study, the extended forecast of population wasused to estimate the reduced 1eet size under the conditionsof conservation compared to business-as-usual growth.

2.3. Annual travel distance

Fuel and energy requirements for transportation dependstrongly on the total annual travel distance. Travel data aregenerally sparser than vehicle registration data. The LandTransport Safety Authority conducted travel surveys [11]in 1989=1990 and 1997=1998 for automobiles and vans.Travel statistics are available from the Ministry for the En-vironment [12] for both light vehicles (cars and vans) andheavy vehicles (trucks, trailers and buses). Data for 1980through 2000 were compiled [4] for both types of vehicle.Light vehicle travel accounted for about 75% of the totaltravel in this period, reaching a value of 31.3 billion vehi-cle kilometers travel (BVKT) in 2000 at m.a.g.r. of 3.52%/ain the past decade. The value for heavy vehicles was 9.44BVKT at m.a.g.r. of 3.61%/a. These large growth rates (witha doubling period of about 20 years) indicate that annual

P. Kruger et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 795–802 797

travel distance will play an important role in the 2010–2050period.

2.4. Fuel economy

Statistical data for on-road fuel economy in New Zealandare sparse and mean values have large standard devia-tions due to such problems as national 1eet composition,vehicle age distribution, and variations in emission con-trol methods. For New Zealand fuel economy, data fromthe Ministry of Economic Development [13], as noted in[5] gives an average fuel consumption for the petrol 1eetof 10 km=l, corresponding to a fuel economy of about23:5 mi=USgal. This value is signi@cantly larger than themean of 17:8 mi=gal estimated for 2000 in the UnitedStates. Since detailed fuel economy data were not available,extrapolation of fuel economy was based on the U.S. Envi-ronmental Protection Agency’s ‘laboratory-measured’ fueleconomies for world-wide produced vehicles sold in theUnited States, adjusted for the ratio of greater fuel econ-omy in New Zealand. The resulting 2000 values used inthe model for New Zealand are 28:8 mi=gal for light vehi-cles and 8:4 mi=gal for heavy vehicles with correspondingm.a.g.r. of 1.86%/a and 0.82%/a.

2.5. Electricity supply

Electric energy and installed power capacity data areavailable from the Modelling and Statistics Unit of the Min-istry of Economic Development [14] as reported in the jointSKM&CAE publication [15] on energy forecast through2015. Data for 1990–2000 show an increase in electricenergy generation from 31.0 to 37:5 TWh at m.a.g.r. of1.98%/a and an increase in installed electric power capacityfrom 7.0 to 8:5 GW at m.a.g.r. of 1.86%/a. In 2000, theenergy resources to produce the electricity supply consistedof hydroelectric (67%), thermal (26%), geothermal (6.3%),wind and other (0.7%).

2.6. Environmental emissions from motor vehicles

The health eHects of environmental pollution frommotor vehicle exhaust as well as concerns about global cli-mate change from emission of carbon dioxide could play animportant externality role in the potential for replacing fos-sil fuels with hydrogen fuel in New Zealand. The AucklandRegional Council [16] notes that Auckland has one of thehighest asthma rates in the world and that nitrogen oxide lev-els exceed standards at peak tra5c sites. The New ZealandGovernment takes its responsibility on carbon dioxiderelease under the Kyoto Protocol of the Framework Con-vention on Climate Change very seriously and many gov-ernment departments are involved in planning for reductionin CO2 emission. Although the environmental aspects ofvehicle emissions are not included in this paper, they are ofgreat importance in the UNITEC project [1–3].

3. Initial conditions in 2010 for introduction of fuel-cellvehicles

To estimate the requirement for hydrogen fuel and con-comitant electric energy to produce it on a sustainablelong-term basis, the model used for the United States [6]was adopted for New Zealand. The model runs in two timesequences. The @rst uses the historic data, summarized inthe preceding section, for extrapolation to the year 2010,when the importing of fuel-cell vehicles could become sig-ni@cant. The second time sequence uses the results as theinitial conditions to examine a range of possible fuel-cellvehicle growth rates over the next 40 years to 2050 to esti-mate the hydrogen fuel demand for large-scale substitutionof petrol and the additional electric energy required, basedon anticipated technology improvement in electrolyticproduction of hydrogen.

The input data to the model are summarized in Table 1.In the @rst step of the model, extrapolated vehicle owner-ship is checked against calculated ownership obtained asthe product of the steadily growing population and satura-tion growth rate of per-capita vehicle ownership attributedto limits in aUuence as the population grows. For the study,the model considers two types of vehicles, as compiled bythe United Nations, light weight (automobiles and vans) andheavy weight (buses, trucks, and trailers). The annual datafor the two weight categories are combined with the respec-tive vehicle tra5c and fuel economy data to calculate thetotal fuel demand, expressed in billion gallons of petrol. Inthe second time sequence, the fuel demand for fuel-cell ve-hicles is converted to billion kilograms of energy-equivalenthydrogen. The required annual electric energy consumptionis calculated with mean conversion factor data obtained fromseveral manufacturers of electrolyser systems as a graphicinput function. The calculated electric energy requirementis compared to the extrapolated “business-as-usual” nationalgrowth of electric energy demand to determine the energyand installed capacity shortfall, if any.

A summary of the output results for the @rst timestep is also given in Table 1. The values show the“business-as-usual” extrapolations for New Zealand motortransportation without consideration of the strong advocacyeHort being made by the New Zealand Energy E5ciencyand Conservation Authority (EECA) [9] to reduce thegrowth rate of transport and energy consumption. Com-parison of the values is shown, where available fromgovernment agencies.

4. Scenarios for hydrogen fuel and electricity demand2010–2050

Since a large fraction of the imported New Zealand vehi-cle 1eet is second-hand vehicles, a signi@cant time lag mayoccur in growth of hydrogen-fuel vehicle ownership follow-ing the introduction of production of fuel-cell vehicles in the

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Table 1Input parameters and output extrapolations from model for 2000–2010

Parameter Initial value Growth rate Output value Comparisons(Units) (2000) (%/a) (2010) [Ref.]

Population (106) 3.84 1.27 4.36 4.04 [4]Ownership (VpC)

Light vehicles 0.53; max: 0.60 1.02 0.54Heavy vehicles 0.195; max: 0.25 −0.33 0.20

Fleet Size (106)Automobiles 2.04 2.22 2.36Fleet 2.78 1.84 3.24 3.21 [4]

Travel Distance (109 VKT)Light vehicles 31.3 3.52 44.2Heavy vehicles 9.44 3.61 13.5Fleet 57.7

Fuel economy (km/USgal, petrol)Light vehicles 46.3 1.86 55.7Heavy vehicles 13.5 0.82 14.7

Fuel consumptionas petrol (109 gal) 1.7

Electrolyser eH. (kWh=N m3) 4.5 constant 4.5Electricity

Energy demand (TWh) 37.2 1.70 44.0 43.8 [15]Installed capacity (GW) 8.51 1.80 9.92 9.69 [15]

2003–2005 period. If public acceptance of fuel-cell vehiclestakes place worldwide, automobile manufacturers will ac-celerate their production and import into New Zealand mightbe expected by 2010. Step 2 of the demand model uses theextrapolated results of Step 1, listed in Table 1, as the initialconditions to examine a range of possible fuel-cell vehiclegrowth rates over the next 40 years to estimate the hydrogenfuel demand for large-scale substitution of petrol and dieselfuels and the additional electric energy required to achieveit based on anticipated improvement in electric energy con-sumption in hydrogen production by water electrolysis. Theresults serve as the basis for evaluating the means for plan-ning the infrastructure for a fuel-cell 1eet and the best wayto produce hydrogen fuel for the expected primary energyresources in New Zealand.

The “business-as usual” conditions in 2010 might not besustainable over the next 40 years as agreed by EECA [9].Thus, the second set of scenarios was run with the basis thatthe rate of growth of population would peak during this pe-riod and that conservation would reduce the per-capita own-ership of motor vehicles. The forecast data for populationbased on the Statistics New Zealand [4] model of mediumfertility, mortality, and migration was used with saturationgrowth of vehicles per capita to provide a more conserva-tive estimate of the growth of electric energy and power re-quirements for the scenario range of growth of a hydrogenfuel-cell vehicle 1eet in New Zealand.

For the scenarios, it was assumed that early fuel-cellvehicles imported into New Zealand will be those that canbe centrally refueled, both for light vehicles (e.g., taxis,ambulances, delivery vans) and heavy vehicles (e.g., citybuses, delivery trucks, heavy construction vehicles). Theinitial number of each type was selected as 5000 in 2010.Although this number is arbitrary, the output of the modelcan be scaled for any other initial value of either type ofvehicle. The diHerence in results would not be very signi@-cant for several doubling periods (at least until 2025–2035)when the exponential growth rate would not be sustainable.Fuel economy was selected for the two types of vehiclefrom the literature [6], 8 mi=kg(H2) for light weight vehi-cles and 40 mi=kg(H2) for heavy weight vehicles. The liter-ature value for heavy vehicles might not be attainable duringthe 2010–2050 period and the resulting hydrogen fuel de-mand would be correspondingly greater. Annual travel washeld constant from 2010 at initial conditions, with growthoHset by conservation. A major factor in the economic suc-cess of large-scale electrolytic production of hydrogen, be-sides the price of electricity, is the e5ciency of electrolysis.In the model, a linear gradient of the energy requirementfor electrolysis of water for hydrogen production from 4.5to 3:5 kWh=Nm3 was introduced to allow for technologyimprovement [6] in large-scale electrolyser systems. Thescenarios cover the range of mean annual growth rates from10%/a (essentially non-growth with respect to substitution

P. Kruger et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 795–802 799

of hydrogen for fossil fuel compared to the normal growthin consumption) to 30%/a (representing a national commit-ment to replace fossil fuels for economic as well as envi-ronmental reasons over the 40 year period). At the highergrowth rates, the model uses saturated exponential growthto asymptotically approach the extrapolated growth of theNew Zealand vehicle 1eet.

5. Results of the scenario analyses for 2010–2050

The model was run for the two sets of assumptions on sus-tainability for the two classes of vehicle with 5000 vehicleseach in 2010 at production growth rates of 10%/a, 20%/aand 30%/a through 2050. Calculations were made annuallyand the output was compiled at @ve-year intervals as 1eetsize, hydrogen fuel demand, electric energy consumptionand equivalent power capacity requirement. A summary ofthe results of the fuel-cell vehicle 1eet and hydrogen fuel de-mand for the two sets of scenario conditions is given in Table2. The growth of the fuel-cell 1eet for the business-as-usualconditions in comparison to the conventional 1eet is shownin Fig. 1. The growth of the corresponding hydrogen fuel de-mand is shown in Fig. 2. Comparison of the fuel-cell 1eet atm.a.g.r. of 30%/a for business-as-usual conditions and con-servation conditions is shown in Fig. 3. Comparison of thecorresponding growth of hydrogen fuel demand is shown inFig. 4.

The results for the requirements of electric energy and thenecessary additional installed power capacity are summa-rized in Table 3. Comparison of the electric energy demandat m.a.g.r. of 30%/a for business-as-usual conditions to thatfor conservation conditions is shown in Fig. 5. Compari-son of the corresponding growth of required total installed

Table 2Fuel-cell vehicle 1eet and hydrogen fuel consumption

Year Conventional 1eet HFleet Hydrogen 1eet Hydrogen fuel demandm.a.g.r

b-a-ua cons. (%=a) b-a-ua cons. b-a-ua cons.(106) (106) (106) (106) (109 kg) (109 kg)

2010 3.24 3.0710–30 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

2030 4.54 3.5210 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.0220 0.35 0.34 0.09 0.0930 1.28 1.24 0.34 0.33

2050 6.56 3.7110 0.40 0.40 0.10 0.1020 4.00 3.00 1.21 0.8630 6.09 3.68 1.92 1.08

ab-a-u = business-as-usual conditions. cons: = with conservation conditions.

Fig. 1. HFleet relative to the forecast 1eet.

Fig. 2. Hydrogen fuel demand for the NZ HFleet.

electric power capacity for the two sets of scenario condi-tions is shown in Fig. 6.

800 P. Kruger et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 795–802

Fig. 3. HFleet as a function of scenario conditions.

Tables 2 and 3 indicate that for the assumed startingimportation of 10,000 fuel-cell vehicles in 2010, the contri-bution to reducing dependence on fossil fuels will be smallat any import growth rate until about 2030. After then,replacement by hydrogen-fuel vehicles could accelerate atdiminishing import rates under conservation conditions sothat by 2050 the remaining fossil-fuel vehicles could beretired.

This scenario allows for early planning and implemen-tation to develop the infrastructure for a fuel-cell vehicleindustry (sales and maintenance) with provisions for grad-ually constructing hydrogen production facilities and distri-bution networks. Since early model imports will be vehicleswith on-board hydrogen obtained from reforming of fossilfuels (methanol, natural gas, or petrol), the industry could bedeveloped with conventional chemical plants whilelarge-scale electrolysis systems are developed. The majorquestions for evaluating the potential for a change-overto a fuel-cell vehicle industry will be: (1) can the indus-try gear up over the next 20 years to produce 1–2 billionkg of hydrogen per year on a sustainable basis; and (2)

Table 3Electric energy and installed capacity requirements

Year Elec.Energy HElectricity HElectricity Installed HElectric powerLoad m.a.g.r. capacity(TWh) (%=a) b-a-ua cons. (GW) b-a-ua cons.

(TWh) (TWh) (GW) (GW)

2010 44.0 8.5110–30 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.01

2030 61.6 12.210 0.68 0.68 0.09 0.0920 3.64 3.61 0.49 0.4830 14.3 13.7 1.92 1.84

2050 86.4 17.410 3.98 3.91 1.53 0.5220 47.5 33.6 6.37 4.5130 75.2 42.3 10.1 5.67

ab-a-u = business-as-usual conditions. cons: = with conservation conditions.

Fig. 4. HFuel demand for scenario conditions.

Fig. 5. Comparative electric energy load.

will there be su5cient energy sources available to generatethe required electric energy load to produce hydrogen (40–70 TWh per year) as well as the growth in the other sectorsof the economy (86 TWh per year) by 2050?

P. Kruger et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 795–802 801

Fig. 6. Comparative required power capacity.

6. Energy supply for a fuel-cell vehicle industry

The dedication of the New Zealand government to com-ply with its responsibility under the Kyoto Protocol of theFramework Convention on Climate Change severely limitsthe country’s ability to continue to increase the use of fossilfuels to meet the anticipated growth of electric energy overthe foreseeable future. As noted by Blakeley [17], domes-tic transport accounts for 45% of the energy-derived CO2

emissions and is predicted to increase its share of total en-ergy use. He concludes that the key to controlling futureincreases in New Zealand’s energy use (and carbon dioxideemissions) is to limit the growth of both private cars androad freight transport. The model used in forecasting elec-tricity supply and demand to 2015 [15] predicts, especiallyfor dry (hydroelectric) years, that additional thermal (fos-sil fuel) generation will have to be used. The model alsopredicts that by 2007 new capacity will be required withlarge annual increments needed from 2009 to meet the ex-pected reduction in natural gas supply. A review of the en-ergy supply data in [5] show only two main primary sources:fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) and renewables (hydroelec-tric, wind, and geothermal) and three main processes toproduce hydrogen: water electrolysis, fossil fuel reforming(e.g., of methane, coal, or petrol), and advanced thermal andbiological methods.

The results of this study clearly indicate that if a con-certed eHort is to be made in New Zealand to conserveenergy and meet the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emis-sions, the potential to convert the fossil-fuel vehicle 1eetto a hydrogen-fuel vehicle 1eet must be very high. Thenthe potential to reduce the import of petroleum-based fossilfuels and replace the transportation fuel with indigenouslyproduced hydrogen must also be very high. If the fossilfuel source of primary energy is reduced, then the short-fall and growth must come from the remaining primarysource: renewables. This is the approach taken in Iceland[18] where a national eHort is underway to change to ahydrogen-fuel economy based on development of its hydro-electric and geothermal resources. Thus the key question

for New Zealand to resolve is whether available renew-able energy resources are su5cient to meet the neededtotal electric energy demand. This could be from hydro-electric, wind, and geothermal energy, possibly from wood(or biomass), and in the longer term from solar, wave, ortidal energy. New Zealand has large deposits of coal thatcould be used by chemical reforming as an alternative towater electrolysis to produce hydrogen. Reforming mightbe more economical and energy e5cient if the total electricenergy demand cannot be obtained from renewable sourcesat economic cost. The corollary question of extent of car-bon dioxide emission would require further study. Theonly other practical primary energy resource is the earth’s@ssionable elements (uranium and thorium). With NewZealand as a declared nuclear-free nation, it would requirea national awareness of the diHerence between militaryand civil applications of nuclear energy and acceptance ofnuclear energy in the nation’s energy mix. This questionhas been raised in a recent New Zealand Herald article[19], which suggests that nuclear power is the best optionto solve many problems as electricity demand outstripssupply.

The problem of how to resolve the question of how tomeet anticipated growth of electric energy demand was ad-dressed by Kruger [20] for replacing fossil fuel in vehicleson a worldwide basis with hydrogen fuel. In this analysis, itwas assumed that production by renewable energy sources(solar, wind, biomass) added to sustainable hydroelectricand geothermal sources could reach 40% by 2050 and theremainder would consist of a combination of fossil andnuclear energy resources. With reliance in New Zealand’sdesire to emphasize renewable resources by increasing thefraction of renewables to 50% (65 TWh of the conserva-tive estimate for 130 TWh in 2050), the other 50% couldbe 65 TWh from fossil fuels or from nuclear power. Onthe basis that a 1350 MW nuclear reactor operating atplant factors of about 80%, the electric energy generatedis 10 TWh=yr. Thus, fossil fuels for transportation couldbe entirely eliminated in New Zealand by 2050 with theconstruction of six to seven such power plants over the next50 years.

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