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Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

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Page 1: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System

NW Hydroelectric Association ConferenceFebruary 20, 2013

Page 2: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

2

Outline• Global Circulation Model

Output

• Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system

• Mitigation Actions?

February 20, 2013

Page 3: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

3

Global Climate Models• Climate Impacts Group – University

of Washington• Up to 20 climate models• At least 2 GHG scenarios • Downscaled for the NW

• Two key outputs for our analysis: Temperature changes Altered natural river flows

Can also model climate studies from other groups if data is available

February 20, 2013

Page 4: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

River Management Joint Operating Committee

(RMJOC)

Two key functions:1. Vet natural flow and temperature data2. Provide additional data required to run hydro

studies• Flood control elevations• Hydro operating rule curves

Page 5: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Precipitation Changes (~2030)

5

Source:Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

No significant overall change

Page 6: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Temperature Changes (~2030)

6

Source:Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

Expected higher temperatures

Page 7: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

7February 20, 2013

Source:Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

Precipitation can be higher or lower

Temperature is always higher

Temp and Precipitation

Changes

Page 8: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

2020's Natural Flow at TDA: 70 year avg.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000O

ct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r I

Ap

r II

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g I

Au

g II

Se

p

Qn

(cf

s)

'

Study 21: Base Study 23: MW/D Study 24: LW/W Study 25: MC

Study 26: C Study 27: MW/W Study 28: LW/D

8

Source:Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part I - Future Climate and Hydrology Datasets

Change in Natural Flows @ The Dalles (~2030)

Page 9: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

9February 20, 2013

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr1-15

Apr16-30

May Jun Jul Aug1-15

Aug16-31

Sep0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

Normal Variation in Flows vs. Average FlowsFl

ow (C

FS)

Average Natural Flows in BLACKAverage Climate Adjusted Flows in RED

Page 10: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

10

CIG Forecast Changes

• Runoff volume and river flowVolume not likely to change

significantlyHigher winter flows, lower summer

flows• Temperature

More likely to increase than decreaseMedian case 2.05 degrees 0F higher by

2030

February 20, 2013

Page 11: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

11

Outline• Global Circulation Model

Output

• Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system

• Dealing with climate uncertainty

February 20, 2013

Page 12: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Temperature Effects on Demand ~2030(For illustration only)

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500S

ep

Oc

t

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

gPe

ak

De

ma

nd

(M

W)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

De

gre

es

(F

)

Demand

Temp

Heating Season

Cooling Season

Page 13: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

13

Changes to Regulated Outflow ~2030(For illustration only)

February 20, 2013

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr 1

Apr 2

May Jun Jul

Aug

1

Aug

2

Sep

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Difference in Regulated Outflow at McNary

Flow

(CFS

)

Page 14: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

14

Changes to Power Generation ~2030(For illustration only)

February 20, 2013

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr 1

Apr 2

May Jun Jul

Aug

1

Aug

2

Sep

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Difference in Hydro Generation

Meg

awatt

-Per

iods

Page 15: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Impacts to Power Generation ~2030(For illustration only)

Changes to: February July

Generation + 1,700 MW - 1,000 MW

Demand - 1,000 MW + 3,000 MW

Balance + 2,700 MW - 4,000 MW

Page 16: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

16

Outline• Global Circulation Model

Output

• Assessing impacts to the hydroelectric system

• Mitigation Actions?

February 20, 2013

Page 17: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Typical Reservoir Operations

0

900

1800

2700

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Ele

vati

on

Full

Empty

Draft for

Power

Draft for

Flood Control

Refill

Page 18: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Potential Mitigating Actions(My opinion only – not endorsed by the Council)

1. Release more water in summer

2. Coordinate with Canada for additional summer releases

3. Refill in winter with anticipated additional rainfall

4. Develop better forecasting methods for fall and winter flows – the beauty of this approach is that hydro operations will be better regardless of whether we see future warming or cooling

Page 19: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

Potential Mitigating Operations

0

900

1800

2700

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Ele

vati

on

Before

After

Full

Empty

Winter Refill Higher

Flood

Control

Late Summer

Draft

Fill by J une

Page 20: Potential Climate Change Impacts to the NW Hydroelectric System NW Hydroelectric Association Conference February 20, 2013

20

Other Issues to Consider

Climate change adjusted streamflows come from one source only

Issue of frequency of extreme events is not well quantified

Current analysis assumes equal likelihood for all streamflows– Should apply weights based on longer

records– Apply different weights for climate studies

February 20, 2013