I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Poten&alandrealizedeconomicimpactsofNOWITECHinnova&ons

ImpelloManagementASFrodeIglebæk23.08.2017

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

RealizedeconomicimpactfromNOWITECHalreadyexceedingtheprogrammeinvestment!

§  Researchinvestment: 35MEUR(NOWITECHbudget2009-2017)§  Realizedimpact: 35+MEUR(2innovaJons+3companies)§  Poten&alimpact: >5billionEUR(7innovaJons)

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I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Morethan40innova&onsfromNOWITECH2009-2017

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3DfloatintegratedmodelTRL7

3DWindparkwakemodelTRL6

INVALSgeneralpurposeopJmizaJonTRL8

CommercialgraderotorCFDTRL5

SIMO-RIFLEXTRL7

WindOptTRL4

RealJmehybridmodeltestinoceanbasinTRL5

NovelfloaterTRL5

VariaJonalMulJscaleErrorEsJmatorTRL3

www.IFEM.noTRL3

ASHES(SIMISAS)www.ashes.noTRL7

SeawatchWindLidarBuoyTRL9

CFDsimulaJonTRL5

DropleterosionresistantbladecoaJngsTRL3

DropleterosiontesJngTRL5

FleetopJmizaJonTRL5

GearboxfaultdetecJonTRL3

GearboxvulnerabilitymapTRL3

DuallayercorrosionprotecJoncoaJngsTRL5

NOWIcobTRL6

REACT/RemotePresence(www.emip.no)TRL5

RouJngandschedulingTRL2

ThermallysprayedSiCcoaJngsTRL5

BucklingresistantbladesTRL3

FaJguedamagesimulaJonTRL4

PSSTPowerSystemSimulaJonTRL5

NetOpnetworkopJmizaJonTRL4

ViperEsJmateEnergyOutputfromOWFTRL4

SmartgridLabHVDCgridTRL4

ControlofmulJ-terminalHVDCgridTRL4

WindSupplytoOil&GasTRL3

TurbinecontrolTRL3

WindturbineelectricalinteracJonTRL4

NetworkReducJonTRL3

STASLinearState-SpaceW.P.PlantAnalysisTRL4

PMgeneratormagneJcvibraJonsTRL4

PMgeneratorintegrateddesignTRL3

WindfarmcollecJongridopJmizaJonTRL2

LongdistanceACtransmissionTRL3

WidebandmodelofwindfarmcollecJongridTRL2

!

Numericalmodel

Technology/process

Newbusinessen&ty(spin-off)

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Reviewof11selectinnova&ons

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3DfloatintegratedmodelTRL7

SIMO-RIFLEXTRL7

ASHES(SIMISAS)www.ashes.noTRL7

SeawatchWindLidarBuoyTRL9

DuallayercorrosionprotecJoncoaJngsTRL5

NOWIcobTRL6

REACT/RemotePresence(www.emip.no)TRL5

ThermallysprayedSiCcoaJngsTRL5

NetOpnetworkopJmizaJonTRL4

STASLinearState-SpaceW.P.PlantAnalysisTRL4

LongdistanceACtransmissionTRL3

Numericalmodel

Technology/process

Newbusinessen&ty(spin-off)

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Numericalmodels

SoVware§  Integratedcoupledanalysisof

§  Completestructure§  Windloads§  Sealoads

§  ImprovedloadpredicJon§  Reducedcostandrisk

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3DfloatintegratedmodelTRL7

SIMO-RIFLEXTRL7

NOWIcobTRL6

STASLinearState-SpaceW.P.PlantAnalysisTRL4

NetOpnetworkop&miza&onTRL4

Methodology§  OpJmizaJonof

offshoregridlayout§  Windfarmclusters§  HVDCinter-

connectors

Methodology§  Designofcontrol

algorithmsforwindpowerplants§  OpJmize

producJon§  Reduceturbine

faJgue

SoVware§  OpJmizaJonof

maintenanceandlogisJcsstrategies

§  Decisionsupporttool

2500MEUR 400MEUR 1100MEUR 400MEUR

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Technology/process

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SeawatchWindLidarBuoyTRL9

Duallayercorrosionprotec&oncoa&ngs

TRL5

LongdistanceACtransmission

TRL3

Commercialproduct§  Met-oceanbuoywithLiDAR§  Measuringwindspeedat

differentalJtudes.§  FugroOCEANOR

Concept/method§  Controlstrategy§  Reduceelectricallossin

longHVACexportcables§  LossreducJon:1%-point

MethodologyOpJmizecorrosionprotecJon§  Low-costcoaJng/

shortmaintenanceintervalsvs.

§  ExpensiveduallayercoaJng/longmaintenanceintervals

10MEUR 200MEUR 150MEUR

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Companyspin-offs

§  Thermasic–aninnovaJvemethodforthermalsprayingofsiliconcarbide(SiC).

§  Generictechnology§  LargerangeoffutureapplicaJonareas§  HighcommercialpotenJal§  BasedonPhDworkinNowitech.§  www.seramcoaJngs.com

§  Ashes– windturbinesimulaJonsofware.

§  IntegratedsimulaJonofe.g.windloads,seawaves,gravity,buoyancy,andgeneratorloads.

§  Basedonpost.docworkinNowitech§  www.simis.io

§  REACT–technologyforremoteinspecJonandmaintenanceofoffshoreturbines.

§  IPownedbyNorskAutomaJsering.§  FundedbyseveralRCN/EUprojects.§  BasedonPhDworkinNowitech.§  www.emip.no

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SeramCoa&ngsAS SIMISAS EMIPAS

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

8

20MNOKinvestmentin2016Thermalsprayingofsiliconcarbide(SiC).

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Methodology(1):

Marketprojec&onsbasedonWindEurope’sCentralScenario

9

8.0

23.5

66.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2014 2020 2030

OffshorewindinstallaJons(GW)

Accumulatedcapacity

Sources:•  WindEurope(2017):TheEuropeanoffshorewindindustry.KeytrendsandstaJsJcs2016•  EWEA(2015):Windenergyscenariosfor2030

2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030NewinstallaJons(GW) 3.0 1.5 2.8 4.3 4.3AccumulatedinstallaJons(GW) 8.0 11.0 12.5 23.5 45.0 66.5No.ofnewwindfarms/yr 8.6 3.0 5.5 8.6 8.6Accumulatedno.ofwindfarms 81 103 146 189Av.sizeofwindfarm(GW) 0.38 0.35 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Derivedassump&onsfromtheCentralScenario

54.0GWofnewcapacityadded2017-2030

Redfigures=CentralscenarioBlackfigures=Linearinter/extrapolaDon

Averagesize(MW)ofoffshorewindfarmprojects

2015

0.35GW

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Methodology(2):

Poten&alimpactEs&matecostsaving(orprofit)§  PerinstalledGWorproducedGWh

§  …mulJpliedwiththeoreJcalmarketsize§  installedGW,producedGWh§  no.ofparks,turbines,foundaJons,etc.

§  …adjustedforrelevance/applicability,§  e.g.typeofpark,typeoffoundaJon,waterdepth,distancetoshore,etc.

Es&mateannualcashflowforeachinnova&on:+Annualnetcostsavings(profit)perGW–RequiredaddiJonalinvestmentsperGW=Netcashflowperyear

Calculatenetpresentvalue(NPV):§  Netcashflowdiscountedover10or25years§  5%discountrate(costofcapital)

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I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

LongdistanceACtransmission

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§  ControlstrategyforminimizingelectricallossesinlongHVACexportcables

§  ConJnuousadjustmentofcableoperaJngvoltage

§  Lossreduc&on:1%-pointofproducedelectricity.

Quan&fiedpoten&al:NPV≈200MEUR

ASSUMPTIONSWindfarmsize 1.2 GW

Investmentperiod 10 yrs

OperaJonperiod 25 yrs

Capacityfactor 46 %

Fullloadhours 4030 hrs

AnnualelectricityproducJonper1.2GWfarm 4836 GWh

Lossreduc&on(percentpoints) 1.0 %

LossreducJon(GWh)per1.2GWfarm 48.4 GWh

Marketrelevance(applicablenewinstallaJons) 20 %

InflaJonrate 2.0 %

Discountrate(costofcapital) 5.0 %

Electricityprice 50 EUR/MWh

Annualsavings/yrperGWinstalled 2.0 MEUR

Addi&onalrequiredinvestmentperGW 10.0 MEUR

LongdistanceACtransmission

TRL3

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

LongdistanceACtransmission– NPVes&mate

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CASHFLOWANDNPV[MEUR] 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 … 2054 NPVMEURInvestment(3yearspriortooperaJon) 5.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 - - - -

Annualsaving(nominalvalues) - - - 1.1 2.8 4.6 6.3 8.0 9.8 11.5 13.2 15.0 16.7 18.4 1.7Netprofit/yr(nominalvalues) -5.5 -8.6 -8.6 -7.5 -5.8 -4.0 -2.3 -0.6 1.2 2.9 4.6 15.0 16.7 18.4 1.7 113Netprofit/yr(realvalues) -5.5 -8.8 -8.9 -8.0 -6.2 -4.4 -2.6 -0.6 1.4 3.5 5.7 18.6 21.2 23.8 3.6 184

TotalnewinstallaJons(GW)–Centralscenario 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3ApplicablenewinstallaJons(GW) 20% 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9AccumulatednewapplicableinstallaJons 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.6

REFERENCES•  Gustavsen,BjørnandOlveMo(2016)VariableTransmissionVoltageforLossMinimizaDoninLongOffshoreWindFarmACExportCables,DOI10.1109/TPWRD.2016.2581879,IEEETransacJonsonPowerDelivery

•  O.Mo,B.Gustavsen,EERADeepwind2016presentaJon,Feb2016,hop://www.sintef.no/globalassets/project/eera-deepwind2016/presentaJons/b2_olve-mo.pdf

Investment2017:10MEUR/GW*2.8GW*20%=5.5MEURAnnualsaving2020:2MEUR/GW*2.8GW*20%=1.1MEUR

≈200MEUR

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

§  SofwaresimulaJontools–coupledanalysis§  Costreduc&on:Reducedmaterialsuse§  Relevantforbothfloatersandbooomfixed

3DfloatintegratedmodelTRL7

SIMO-RIFLEXTRL7

SIMO-RIFLEXand3Dfloat

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Quan&fiedpoten&al:NPV≈2500MEUR

ASSUMPTIONSWindfarmsize 1,0 GWProjectduraJon(technologyobsoleteaferthis) 10 yrsMarketrelevance(applicablenewinstalla&ons) 100 %Materialsweight-floater 3670tonsMaterialsweight-monopile 1370tonsReducedmaterialsuse(tower,substructure,mooring) 5 %Unitcosts(materials) 5.0 EUR/kgMaterialssavingsperturbine-floater 918kEURMaterialssavingsperturbine-monopile 343kEURTurbinesize 6.0 MWNo.ofturbinesperwindpark(1GW) 167turbinesMaterialssavingsper1GW-floaterpark 153MEURMaterialssavingsper1GW-monopilepark 57MEURFloaterparkshare 15 %Monopileparkshare 85 %Totaladdi&onalinvestmentsper1GWpark 1.0MEURDiscountrate(costofcapital) 5 %

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

SIMA(SIMO/RIFLEX)and3Dfloat–NPVes&mate

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CASHFLOWANDNPV[MEUR] 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 … NPVMEURInvestments-3yearspriortooperaJon 2,8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 - - -Annualsaving-floaterparks(nominalvalues) - - - 63.1 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.6Annualsaving-monopileparks(nom.values) - - - 133.4 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6 208.6Netprofit/yr(nominalvalues) -2.8 -4.3 -4.3 192.2 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 303.0 307.3 307.3 307.3 2183Netprofit(realvalues) -2.8 -4.4 -4.5 204.0 327.9 334.5 341.2 348.0 355.0 362.1 369.3 382.1 389.7 397.5 2551

TotalnewinstallaJons(GW)–Centralscen. 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3ApplicablenewinstallaJons(GW)(100%) 2.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3Accumulatednewapplicableinstalla&ons 2.8 7.1 11.4 15.7 20.0 24.3 28.6 32.9 37.2 41.5 45.8

≈2500MEUR

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

FugroOCEANOR– Seawatchwindlidarbuoy

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Floa&ngmet-oceanbuoy§  ReducedcostofcollecJngdata

§  WindspeedatdifferentalJtudes§  Waves,current

§  NOWITECHcontributedtothestart-upofthedevelopment.

Commercialproduct§  80-100MNOK(≈10MEUR)oftotalssalessince2012

Realizedrevenues>10MEUR

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Dudgeon(Statoil/StatkraV)

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Selec&onofmonopileratherthanjacketfounda&on§  ...forrelaJvelydeepwaterandlargeturbines§  Importanceofnon-linearhydrodynamicsviewed

againstthestructuralresponsesinanintegrateddesigntool

Realizedimpact§  RiskandcostreducJonthroughreducinguncertainty§  ImprovedmodelingofbothfaJgueandextremeloads

§  ConsensusesJmatebySINTEF,StatoilandStatkraf

Realizedimpact>25MEUR

TheDudgeonwindfarmisexpectedtoproduce1.7terawao-hours(TWh)ofelectricityperyear.

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS

Summingup:>5billionEUReconomicimpactfromNOWITECH

§  Researchinvestment:35MEUR

§  Realizedimpact:35+MEUR

§  Exceedstheprogrammeinvestment!

§  Poten&alimpact:>5billionEUR§  QuanJfiedpotenJalfor7innovaJons§  PotenJaloftheotherinnovaJonsnotesJmated

Disclaimer:UsingotherassumpJonswillgiveotherNPVfiguresandthusahigher/lowertotalpotenJaleconomicimpactofNOWITECH.

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Ini&alNOWITECHprojectinvestment MEUR320MNOK(2009-2017) 35

Realizedimpact MEURDudgeonfoundaJons(Statoil/Statkraf) 25Seawatchbuoy(FugroOCEANOR) 10SeramCoaJngsAS NewcompanySIMISAS NewcompanyEMIPAS(RemoteInspecJon) NewcompanyTotal(MEUR) 35

Poten&alimpact NPVLongDistanceACTransmission 200NOWIcob 400RemoteInspecJon 250STAS 1100DualLayerCorrosionProtecJonCoaJng 150SIMA(SIMO/RIFLEX)and3Dfloat 2,500NetOp/PowerGIM 400Total(MEUR) 5,000

I M P E L L OImpello Management AS