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Potato Market Change – Retail Influences. David Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel. Agenda. The grocery landscape Potato category importance Potato category performance Consumer purchasing trends. Key themes in the grocery marketplace. Stability. Store Choice. Inflation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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© Kantar Worldpanel© Kantar Worldpanel
Potato Market Change – Retail InfluencesDavid Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Consumer purchasing trends
© Kantar Worldpanel
Key themes in the grocery marketplace
Stability
Inflation
Trading DownSmaller Trips
Store Choice
© Kantar Worldpanel
Stability
© Kantar Worldpanel
Take Home Grocery Market Value2001 to 2008 saw average 7% growth and overall 58%
€5.9€6.3
€6.7€7.1
€7.5€8.0
€8.6€9.3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+8% +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8%
Annu
al v
alue
of t
ake
hom
e gr
ocer
y (€
b)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
The market declined in 2010 but has now stabilised
€5.9€6.3
€6.7€7.1
€7.5€8.0
€8.6€9.3 €9.3
€8.8 €8.9
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
+8% +6% +6% +6% +6% +7% +8% +1% -6% +1%
Annu
al v
alue
of t
ake
hom
e gr
ocer
y (€
b)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Inflation
© Kantar Worldpanel
Trended Total Grocery Price Inflation
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Year
on
year
like
for l
ike
chan
ge in
pric
es
ConsistencyConsistency CorrectionCorrection IncreaseIncreaseOver
HeatingOver
Heating
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Trading Down
© Kantar Worldpanel
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
42%
43%44%
45%46%
Shoppers are increasingly turning to Private Label
Christmas 2011:
Branded Sales: -1%Private Label: +6%
Private Label Share Of Grocery Market
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
Smaller Shopping Trips
© Kantar Worldpanel
•2011 = 2 more trips
•2011 = 1 fewer item
•2011 = €26 trip size, €3 less
•2011 = €100+ occasions down 13%
•Clear attempt to manage how much is spent
Christmas 2011 vs. 2010
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Store Choice
© Kantar Worldpanel
2001 75% Total Sales
2006 83% Total Sales
2011 87% Total Sales
Multiple retailers continue to capture more of the market
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Lidl now has more shoppers than SuperValu
Tesco
Dunnes
Lidl
SuperValu
Aldi
Superquinn
Reta
iler P
enet
ratio
n
82%
67%
60%
58%
50%
24%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Retailer performance over the past decade – Total Grocery Market
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
209 stores63 new stores since 2007
131 stores34 new
196 stores12 new
100 stores6 new
24 stores1 new
Store numbers play a big part in market share growth
Source: Desk Research
© Kantar Worldpanel
Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Consumer purchasing trends
© Kantar Worldpanel
From a shopper perspective we are the 8th most
important category in store
100% shoppers
99%
98%
97%
97%
97%
96%
96%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
€23€44
10% of all shopping trips feature potatoesThese trips contribute 20% of all sales
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Within our competitive set we are a clear number 140% of value & 70% of volume sales
€000’s KG000’s
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Consumer purchasing trends
© Kantar Worldpanel
Potatoes vol & val sales trended over the past 5 yearsVolume decline has slowed considerably since 2008
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Potatoes growth/decline trended over the past 4 years Value currently declining faster than volume
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Fresh Potato Share Within Carbohydrate Category
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Competitive Carbohydrate Category SharesRice, Pasta & Pizza have gained ground
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Value Volume Price
-32% -25%* -9%
+62% +45%** +115%
Carbohydrate category 5 year performance (06 – 11)
+6% +12%* -5%
+59% +38%* +16%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
**Measured by number
of packs as a percentage
* Measured by kilo volume
weight as a percentage
© Kantar Worldpanel
Complementary Vegetable Category Sales PerformanceGrowth in value and volume sales
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Vegetable Category Value Share by TypeSome change, but no fundamental shift
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Agenda
1. The grocery landscape
2. Potato category importance
3. Potato category performance
4. Consumer purchasing trends
© Kantar Worldpanel
Fresh Potato Volume Sales Per Household (KG)Clear trend of consumers cutting down Potato consumption
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Pack Size Share Within Total Potatoes (volume)Moving to smaller backs will have led to cutting back
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Potato Carbohydrate Share By AgeResonance among younger shoppers is a key challenge
Increasing share in younger age groups vital to current and future category health
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Dec 2011
© Kantar Worldpanel
Key themes
Vital Category
Drive Footfall
Key to high € trips
More & More Choice
Changing tastes
Convenience & Health
Connecting with Consumers
Younger = Less Consumption
Vital for Future Growth
© Kantar Worldpanel
[email protected]: 0860 438 090