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Post Mortem Post Mortem Forecast Review Forecast Review Contest 3 Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, Thursday, November 3, 2011 2011 Asheville, NC and Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ Flagstaff, AZ

Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

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Page 1: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Post Mortem Forecast Post Mortem Forecast ReviewReview

Contest 3Contest 3

Thursday, November 3, 2011Thursday, November 3, 2011

Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZAsheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Page 2: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 3: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

FAA Identifier:  FLG Lat/Long:  35-08-25.1000N / 111-40-09.3000W35-08.418333N / 111-40.155000W35.1403056 / -111.6692500(estimated) Elevation:  7014 ft. / 2137.9 m (surveyed) Variation:  14E (1975) From city:  4 miles S of FLAGSTAFF, AZ

Page 4: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Flagstaff, Winslow, Whatever…Flagstaff, Winslow, Whatever…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zuhxfrXocw

Page 5: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ KFLG 042357Z 21010G18KT 10SM BKN080 OVC100 08/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP020 T00831022 10106 20083 58021=KFLG 042357Z 21010G18KT 10SM BKN080 OVC100 08/M02 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP020 T00831022 10106 20083 58021= KFLG 050057Z 20009G18KT 10SM FEW060 OVC085 08/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP020 T00781028=KFLG 050057Z 20009G18KT 10SM FEW060 OVC085 08/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP020 T00781028= KFLG 050157Z 20016G29KT 4SM +RA OVC026 04/01 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 16041/0141 RAB22 SLP008 P0003 T00390011=KFLG 050157Z 20016G29KT 4SM +RA OVC026 04/01 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 16041/0141 RAB22 SLP008 P0003 T00390011= KFLG 050233Z AUTO 20019G32KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN020 OVC025 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 19032/0230 P0014 TSNO=KFLG 050233Z AUTO 20019G32KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN020 OVC025 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 19032/0230 P0014 TSNO= KFLG 050233Z AUTO 20019G32KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN020 OVC025 04/03A2968=KFLG 050233Z AUTO 20019G32KT 2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN020 OVC025 04/03A2968= KFLG 050242Z AUTO 21022G34KT 5SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN016 OVC023 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO=KFLG 050242Z AUTO 21022G34KT 5SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN016 OVC023 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO= KFLG 050244Z AUTO 20019G34KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC026 05/04 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO=KFLG 050244Z AUTO 20019G34KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC026 05/04 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO= KFLG 050244Z AUTO 20019G34KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC026 05/04A2968=KFLG 050244Z AUTO 20019G34KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC026 05/04A2968= KFLG 050242Z AUTO 21022G34KT 5SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN016 OVC023 04/03A2968=KFLG 050242Z AUTO 21022G34KT 5SM -RA BR BKN010 BKN016 OVC023 04/03A2968= KFLG 050246Z AUTO 21019G34KT 8SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC032 05/04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO=KFLG 050246Z AUTO 21019G34KT 8SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC032 05/04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 21034/0240 P0017 TSNO= KFLG 050246Z AUTO 21019G34KT 8SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC032 05/04A29=KFLG 050246Z AUTO 21019G34KT 8SM -RA BKN008 BKN015 OVC032 05/04A29= KFLG 050257Z AUTO 20021G35KT 5SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN013 OVC032 05/04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 20035/0252 SLP999 P0018 60021KFLG 050257Z AUTO 20021G35KT 5SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN013 OVC032 05/04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 20035/0252 SLP999 P0018 60021 T00500039 56009 TSNO=T00500039 56009 TSNO= KFLG 050253Z AUTO 21028G35KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN012 OVC032 05/04A2968=KFLG 050253Z AUTO 21028G35KT 7SM -RA SCT008 BKN012 OVC032 05/04A2968= KFLG 050257Z AUTO 20021G35KT 5SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN013 OVC032 05/04 A2967=KFLG 050257Z AUTO 20021G35KT 5SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN013 OVC032 05/04 A2967= KFLG 050357Z AUTO 22026G34KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC012 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21039/0333 SLP996 P0015 T00390028 TSNO=KFLG 050357Z AUTO 22026G34KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC012 04/03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 21039/0333 SLP996 P0015 T00390028 TSNO= KFLG 050431Z AUTO 22021G35KT 6SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC015 04/03 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0002 TSNO=KFLG 050431Z AUTO 22021G35KT 6SM -RA BR BKN009 OVC015 04/03 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0002 TSNO= KFLG 050438Z AUTO 22021G33KT 9SM -RA SCT009 BKN015 OVC020 04/03 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0003 TSNO=KFLG 050438Z AUTO 22021G33KT 9SM -RA SCT009 BKN015 OVC020 04/03 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0003 TSNO= KFLG 050438Z AUTO 22021G33KT 9SM -RA SCT009 BKN015 OVC020 04/03A2966=KFLG 050438Z AUTO 22021G33KT 9SM -RA SCT009 BKN015 OVC020 04/03A2966= KFLG 050446Z AUTO 21023G33KT 8SM -RA SCT009 OVC013 04/04 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0003 TSNO=KFLG 050446Z AUTO 21023G33KT 8SM -RA SCT009 OVC013 04/04 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 P0003 TSNO= KFLG 050457Z AUTO 22023G34KT 4SM RA BR SCT009 OVC013 03/03 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 SLP985 P0006 T00330033 TSNO=KFLG 050457Z AUTO 22023G34KT 4SM RA BR SCT009 OVC013 03/03 A2965 RMK AO2 PK WND 22035/0425 SLP985 P0006 T00330033 TSNO= KFLG 050548Z AUTO 21020G29KT 9SM -RA BKN007 OVC011 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 CIG 004V007 P0005 TSNO=KFLG 050548Z AUTO 21020G29KT 9SM -RA BKN007 OVC011 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 CIG 004V007 P0005 TSNO= KFLG 050557Z AUTO 21017G33KT 4SM RA BR SCT007 OVC012 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 SLP973 P0006 60048 T00280028KFLG 050557Z AUTO 21017G33KT 4SM RA BR SCT007 OVC012 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 SLP973 P0006 60048 T00280028 10083 20028 58016 TSNO=10083 20028 58016 TSNO= KFLG 050614Z AUTO 20017G26KT 3SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC013 02/02 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 20028/0559 P0004 TSNO=KFLG 050614Z AUTO 20017G26KT 3SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC013 02/02 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 20028/0559 P0004 TSNO=

Page 6: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ KFLG 050557Z AUTO 21017G33KT 4SM RA BR SCT007 OVC012 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 SLP973 P0006 60048 T00280028KFLG 050557Z AUTO 21017G33KT 4SM RA BR SCT007 OVC012 03/03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/0511 SLP973 P0006 60048 T00280028 10083 20028 58016 TSNO=10083 20028 58016 TSNO= KFLG 050614Z AUTO 20017G26KT 3SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC013 02/02 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 20028/0559 P0004 TSNO=KFLG 050614Z AUTO 20017G26KT 3SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC013 02/02 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 20028/0559 P0004 TSNO= KFLG 050657Z AUTO 20015G26KT 4SM RA BR BKN009 OVC012 02/02 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 20030/0640 SLP963 P0017 T00220022KFLG 050657Z AUTO 20015G26KT 4SM RA BR BKN009 OVC012 02/02 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 20030/0640 SLP963 P0017 T00220022 401061033 TSNO=401061033 TSNO= KFLG 050721Z AUTO 21018G32KT 2SM -SN BR OVC009 01/01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11SNB11 P0005 TSNO=KFLG 050721Z AUTO 21018G32KT 2SM -SN BR OVC009 01/01 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11SNB11 P0005 TSNO= KFLG 050735Z AUTO 21017G29KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC009 01/01 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28E29SNB11 P0009 TSNO=KFLG 050735Z AUTO 21017G29KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC009 01/01 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28E29SNB11 P0009 TSNO= KFLG 050742Z AUTO 21013G29KT 3SM +RA BR OVC009 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28SNB11E42 P0010 TSNO=KFLG 050742Z AUTO 21013G29KT 3SM +RA BR OVC009 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28SNB11E42 P0010 TSNO= KFLG 050757Z AUTO 20008G19KT 4SM RA BR BKN006 OVC011 01/01 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28SNB11E42 SLP951 P0011KFLG 050757Z AUTO 20008G19KT 4SM RA BR BKN006 OVC011 01/01 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 20032/0716 RAE11B28SNB11E42 SLP951 P0011 T00110011 TSNO=T00110011 TSNO= KFLG 050810Z AUTO 19007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 01/01 A2954=KFLG 050810Z AUTO 19007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 01/01 A2954= KFLG 050810Z AUTO 19007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 01/01 A2954 RMK AO2 RAE0758SNB0758 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 050810Z AUTO 19007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC008 01/01 A2954 RMK AO2 RAE0758SNB0758 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 050818Z AUTO 22016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC006 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 RAE0758SNB0758 P0004 TSNO $=KFLG 050818Z AUTO 22016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC006 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 RAE0758SNB0758 P0004 TSNO $= KFLG 050826Z AUTO 22021G31KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 22031/0826 RAE0758SNB0758 P0008 TSNO $=KFLG 050826Z AUTO 22021G31KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 01/01 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 22031/0826 RAE0758SNB0758 P0008 TSNO $= KFLG 050857Z AUTO 26008G15KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 00/00 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 22031/0826 RAE0758SNB0758 SLP965 P0012 60040KFLG 050857Z AUTO 26008G15KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV007 00/00 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 22031/0826 RAE0758SNB0758 SLP965 P0012 60040 T00000000 55013 TSNO $=T00000000 55013 TSNO $= KFLG 050957Z AUTO 20013KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP975 P0012 T10061006 TSNO $=KFLG 050957Z AUTO 20013KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP975 P0012 T10061006 TSNO $= KFLG 051012Z AUTO 21012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV005 M01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 P0004 TSNO $=KFLG 051012Z AUTO 21012KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV005 M01/M01 A2960 RMK AO2 P0004 TSNO $= KFLG 051048Z AUTO 20009KT 1SM -SN FEW006 OVC010 M02/ A2959 RMK AO2 P0008 TSNO $=KFLG 051048Z AUTO 20009KT 1SM -SN FEW006 OVC010 M02/ A2959 RMK AO2 P0008 TSNO $= KFLG 051057Z AUTO 21012KT 2 1/2SM -SN FEW006 BKN012 OVC070 M02/ A2960 RMK AO2 SLP980 P0008 T1017 TSNO $=KFLG 051057Z AUTO 21012KT 2 1/2SM -SN FEW006 BKN012 OVC070 M02/ A2960 RMK AO2 SLP980 P0008 T1017 TSNO $= KFLG 051104Z AUTO 22015KT 5SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC018 M02/M02A2959=KFLG 051104Z AUTO 22015KT 5SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC018 M02/M02A2959= KFLG 051104Z AUTO 22015KT 5SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC018 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO $=KFLG 051104Z AUTO 22015KT 5SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC018 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO $= KFLG 051111Z AUTO 22013KT 6SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN017 OVC070 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO $=KFLG 051111Z AUTO 22013KT 6SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN017 OVC070 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO $= KFLG 051111Z AUTO 22013KT 6SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN017 OVC070 M02/M02A2959=KFLG 051111Z AUTO 22013KT 6SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN017 OVC070 M02/M02A2959= KFLG 051123Z AUTO 23010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC017 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 P0000 TSNO $=KFLG 051123Z AUTO 23010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC017 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 P0000 TSNO $= KFLG 051123Z AUTO 23010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC017M02/M02 A2959=KFLG 051123Z AUTO 23010KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR FEW006 BKN012 OVC017M02/M02 A2959= KFLG 051131Z AUTO 22014G18KT 1SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC017 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 P0000 TSNO $=KFLG 051131Z AUTO 22014G18KT 1SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC017 M02/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 P0000 TSNO $= KFLG 051131Z AUTO 22014G18KT 1SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC017 M02/M02A2959=KFLG 051131Z AUTO 22014G18KT 1SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC017 M02/M02A2959= KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017 10028 21017 51009 TSNO $=10028 21017 51009 TSNO $=

Page 7: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 - FlagstaffContest 3 - Flagstaff KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064

70112 T1017101770112 T10171017 10028 21017 51009 TSNO $=10028 21017 51009 TSNO $= KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO $=KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO $= KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02A2963=KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02A2963= KFLG 051234Z AUTO 23014G20KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 051234Z AUTO 23014G20KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02A2964=KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02A2964= KFLG 051252Z AUTO 23011G19KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC017 M02/M02 A2965 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 051252Z AUTO 23011G19KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC017 M02/M02 A2965 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP033 P0000 T10221022 TSNO $=KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP033 P0000 T10221022 TSNO $= KFLG 051353Z AUTO 25012G20KT 4SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M02 A2970=KFLG 051353Z AUTO 25012G20KT 4SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M02 A2970= KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970=KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970= KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970=KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970= KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051409Z 23010KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051409Z 23010KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051414Z 22011G18KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051414Z 22011G18KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051430Z 23016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M03/M03 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051430Z 23016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M03/M03 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/1433 SNE57 SLP050 P0000 60002 KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/1433 SNE57 SLP050 P0000 60002

T10331033 53026T10331033 53026 $=$= KFLG 051452Z 23016G20KT 3SM -SN BR SCT009 OVC014 M03/M03 A2974=KFLG 051452Z 23016G20KT 3SM -SN BR SCT009 OVC014 M03/M03 A2974= KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975=KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975= KFLG 051526Z 23012G19KT 9SM FEW010 BKN015 OVC020 M03/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 $=KFLG 051526Z 23012G19KT 9SM FEW010 BKN015 OVC020 M03/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 $= KFLG 051543Z 26011G17KT 6SM BR BKN013 OVC021 M03/M03 A2979 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 P0000 $=KFLG 051543Z 26011G17KT 6SM BR BKN013 OVC021 M03/M03 A2979 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 P0000 $=

Page 8: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 - FlagstaffContest 3 - Flagstaff KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017KFLG 051157Z AUTO 22016KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV006 M02/M02 A2960 RMK AO2 UPB14E17SNE14B21 SLP985 P0004 60064 70112 T10171017 10028 21017 51009 TSNO $=10028 21017 51009 TSNO $= KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO $=KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001 TSNO $= KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02A2963=KFLG 051221Z AUTO 23011G19KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 M02/M02A2963= KFLG 051234Z AUTO 23014G20KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 051234Z AUTO 23014G20KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M02 A2963 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02 A2964 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02A2964=KFLG 051245Z AUTO 23014G20KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC035 M02/M02A2964= KFLG 051252Z AUTO 23011G19KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC017 M02/M02 A2965 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $=KFLG 051252Z AUTO 23011G19KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 OVC017 M02/M02 A2965 RMK AO2 P0002 TSNO $= KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP033 P0000 T10221022 TSNO $=KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970 RMK AO2 SLP033 P0000 T10221022 TSNO $= KFLG 051353Z AUTO 25012G20KT 4SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M02 A2970=KFLG 051353Z AUTO 25012G20KT 4SM -SN BR OVC017 M02/M02 A2970= KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970=KFLG 051357Z 25010G20KT 2SM -SN BR OVC015 M02/M02 A2970= KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970=KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970= KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051404Z 25008KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2970 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051409Z 23010KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051409Z 23010KT 1SM -SN BR SCT010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051414Z 22011G18KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051414Z 22011G18KT 3/4SM -SN BR BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2971 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051430Z 23016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M03/M03 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 $=KFLG 051430Z 23016G21KT 1SM -SN BR OVC010 M03/M03 A2973 RMK AO2 P0000 $= KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/1433 SNE57 SLP050 P0000 60002 T10331033 53026KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/1433 SNE57 SLP050 P0000 60002 T10331033 53026 $=$= KFLG 051452Z 23016G20KT 3SM -SN BR SCT009 OVC014 M03/M03 A2974=KFLG 051452Z 23016G20KT 3SM -SN BR SCT009 OVC014 M03/M03 A2974= KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975=KFLG 051457Z 23014KT 8SM BKN010 OVC015 M03/M03 A2975= KFLG 051526Z 23012G19KT 9SM FEW010 BKN015 OVC020 M03/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 $=KFLG 051526Z 23012G19KT 9SM FEW010 BKN015 OVC020 M03/M03 A2978 RMK AO2 $= KFLG 051543Z 26011G17KT 6SM BR BKN013 OVC021 M03/M03 A2979 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 P0000 $=KFLG 051543Z 26011G17KT 6SM BR BKN013 OVC021 M03/M03 A2979 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 P0000 $= KFLG 051557Z 24010G19KT 10SM SCT013 OVC018 M03/M03 A2981 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 SLP074 P0000 T10331033 $=KFLG 051557Z 24010G19KT 10SM SCT013 OVC018 M03/M03 A2981 RMK AO2 SNB30E43 SLP074 P0000 T10331033 $= KFLG 051657Z 24008KT 10SM BKN018 OVC022 M03/M03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP089 P0001 T10331033 $=KFLG 051657Z 24008KT 10SM BKN018 OVC022 M03/M03 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP089 P0001 T10331033 $= KFLG 051757Z 24013G22KT 10SM OVC018 M03/M03 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP101 60003 T10281033 11017 21033 53018 $=KFLG 051757Z 24013G22KT 10SM OVC018 M03/M03 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP101 60003 T10281033 11017 21033 53018 $=

Page 9: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 10: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 - FlagstaffContest 3 - Flagstaff

Page 11: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 12: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 13: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 14: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 15: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 16: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Up Close and PersonalUp Close and Personal

Page 17: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Contest 3 – Flagstaff, AZContest 3 – Flagstaff, AZ

Page 18: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Flagstaff, AZ – Lessons LearnedFlagstaff, AZ – Lessons Learned

Digging troughs from the north Pacific are Digging troughs from the north Pacific are quite moist and even more so when the vort quite moist and even more so when the vort max passes south of the forecast site in the max passes south of the forecast site in the mountains.mountains.

Consider carefully the low level wind flow for Consider carefully the low level wind flow for its upslope component.its upslope component.

Sometimes there is not much of a wind shift Sometimes there is not much of a wind shift with the FROPA, instead just a rapid cooling with the FROPA, instead just a rapid cooling due to the upper-level trough passage.due to the upper-level trough passage.

Page 19: Post Mortem Forecast Review Contest 3 Thursday, November 3, 2011 Asheville, NC and Flagstaff, AZ

Weekly Winners (Nov 1-3)Weekly Winners (Nov 1-3)