POST INDUS FLOOD RESEARCHPresentation toBoard Members of RSPN - Revisited

by Fawad KhanInstitute of Social and Environmental Transition - Pakistan

Hotspot: This map shows areas of relatively high pressure (red) over Russia and the resulting low pressure (blue) over Pakistan in August 2010

This map shows how rainfall built up over Pakistan from the beginning of July through to the end of August

S. N. City Rainfall in mm Rainfall in inch Province1 Risalpur *468.0 18.5 KP2 Cherat *384.0 15.1 KP3 Saidu sharif *338.0 13.3 KP4 Peshawar *226.1 8.9 KP5 Lower Dir 297 11.7 KP6 Kohat 127.3 5 KP7 Balakot 208.7 8.2 KP8 Upper Dir 309 12.1 KP9 Dera Ismail Khan 83.3 3.3 KP10 Loarhi Dopatta 346 13.6 KP11 Rawalakot 297 11.7 Azad Kashmir12 Muzaffarabad 292 11.5 Azad Kashmir13 Pattan 242 9.5 Azad Kashmir14 Islamabad 394 15.5 Azad Kashmir

15 Murree 373 14.6 Capital Teritory16 Kamra 308 12.1 Punjab17 Lahore 288 11.3 Punjab18 Mianwali *271 10.6 Punjab19 Jhelum 269 10.6 Punjab20 Sialkot 255 10 Punjab21 Csyhrabwaka 222 8.7 Punjab22 Rawalpinda 219 8.6 Punjab

*indicates new recordSource: Annual Flood Report 2010, Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power.

Table 1: recorded Rainfall During the four Day wet Spell of July 27 to July 30, 2010

IDRC-DFID funded research with RSPN and member RSPs

Four main outputs

• Links between services and recovery

•Generalized vulnerability index

•Demography (gender) and recovery

•Desk study on recovery process

Conceptual Framework

• Post flood vulnerability/resilience analysis• The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining

the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change (IPCC WG2 2007: 880).

• Recovery rates

• Systems and access to systems• Eco-system services (air, water, forest, pastures etc.)• Gateway services (water, health, education, communication, finance etc.)• Higher level systems (institutions, governance etc.)

• Identifying critical systems for building resilience• Adaptive capacities

Site Selection• Chitral in

High Mountains

• Charsadda in Piedmont area

• Dadu in low plains

• Tharparkar in Desert/Coastal areas

Methodology• Identify under-serviced areas/populations using census.• In post disaster situation identify vulnerable and resilient

through recovery status (SLD/survey)• Document service availability differential between resilient and

vulnerable (quantity, quality, time)• Identify critical services that build resilience through statistical

testing• Shared learning process to determine causation

Results (Access)DISTRICT MITHI (desert) DADU (plain) CHARSADDA (piedmont/plain)

SHISHIKOH (mountainous)

Bhakuo Haryar Shahani Seelaro Agra Kharkai Madaklasht/Gouch

SERVICE

Health

✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious

leaders, Veterinary clinic

Info/Communication ✔ TV

✔ Post office, TV, Wireless loop°

Fuel/Energy ✔ Electricity ✔ LPG ✔ Electricity

Sanitation ✔ ✔ Latrine/ Toilet

Water supply ✔ Hand

pump ✔ Piped to house°,

water course°

Mobility ✔ access to

main rd ✔ access to main rd, distance to main rd

Transportation ✔ ✔ Car°, 4X4°, public

transportation°

Credit services ✔ Banks ✔

Shopkeeper

✔ Banks, community/village

organization, shopkeepers

Social Protection

✔ Relatives/Nei

ghbors° ✔ NGOs°

DISTRICT MITHI (desert) DADU (plain) CHARSADDA (piedmont/plain)

SHISHIKOH (mountainous)

  Bhakuo Haryar Shahani Seelaro Agra Kharkai  

Health ✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

      ✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious leaders, Veterinary clinic

Housing     ✔ Marla(katcha)

✔ Pucca no. of rooms

✔ Marla (Katcha)    

Electricity ✔           ✔

Info/Communication

        ✔ TV   ✔ Post office, TV, Wireless loop°

Fuel/Energy         ✔ LPG   ✔ Electricity

Sanitation         ✔   ✔ Latrine/ Toilet

Water supply

    ✔ Hand pump       ✔ Piped to house°, water course°

Mobility         ✔ access to main rd

  ✔ access to main rd, distance to main rd

Transportation

        ✔   ✔ Car°, 4X4°, pulic transportation°

Credit services

    ✔ Banks   ✔ Shopkeepers   ✔ Banks, community/village organization, shopkeepers

Social Protection

✔ Relatives/Neighbors°

✔ NGOs°          

Land ownership

    ✔ Farmland area

      ✔ Years owned

Results (duration of use)

CHITRALSERVICE ACCESS

DURATION OF USE

Health

✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious leaders, Veterinary

clinic

✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious leaders, Veterinary clinic

Info/Communication✔ Post office, TV, Wireless

loop°

✔Post office, TV, Wireless loop°

Fuel/Energy✔ Electricity

✔Electricity

Sanitation✔ Latrine/ Toilet

✔ Latrine/ Toilet

Water supply✔ Piped to house°, water

course°

✔ Piped to house°, water course°

Mobility✔ access to main rd, distance

to main rd

✔ access to main rd, distance to main rd

Transportation✔ Car°, 4X4°, public

transportation°

✔ Car°, 4X4°, pulic transportation°

Credit services✔ Banks, community/village

organization, shopkeepers

✔ Banks, community/village organization, shopkeepers

Land ✔ Years owned

Electricity as a Gateway service• Communities in Chitral in a maladaptive cycle• Flash floods• Commercial logging

• Remarkable socio-economic outcomes• Education• Skills/Computers• Employment• Micro-credit and enterprise• Communication

• Micro Hydel in one village (12+ yrs)

• Ban on commercial logging

CHARSADDA

ACCESS DURATION OF USE

SERVICE Agra Kharkai Agra Kharkai

Health✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

Info/Communication✔ TV

✔ TV

Fuel/Energy✔ LPG

✔ LPG

Sanitation✔

✔

Water supply

Mobility✔ access to main rd

✔ access to main rd

Transportation✔

✔

Credit services✔ Shopkeeper

✔ Shopkeepers

Agra's timeline of sanitation usage

60 55 52 38 34 30 30 22 14 12 11 5 4 20

4.2

8.4

12.614.7

21 21

25.2

29.4

35.7

39.9

44.1 44.1

48.3

3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2

14.3

17.9

21.5

28.6

Recovered Not recovered

DADU

DISTRICT

ACCESS Duration

IShahani Seelaro Shahani Seelaro

Fuel/Energy

Sanitation

Water supply✔ Hand pump

✔ Hand pump

Mobility

Transportation

Credit services

✔ Banks

✔ Banks

Agricultural land

✔ Farmland area

Shahani's timeline of hand-pump usage

35 30 20 12 10 10 5 4

28.6

42.9 42.9 42.9

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

0.0 0.05.3

10.6 10.6

47.452.7

58.0

Recovered Not recovered

MITHI ACCESS DURATION

SERVICE Bhakuo Haryar Bhakuo Haryar

Health

✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°

Info/Communication

Fuel/Energy ✔ Electricity ✔ Electricity

Sanitation

Water supply

Mobility

Transportation

Credit services

Social Protection✔ Relatives/Neighbors° ✔ NGOs° ✔

Relatives/Neighbors° ✔ NGOs°

Conclusions• Services do differentiate between fast and slow recovery

• These services are dependent on physical (geographic) and social conditions (level of development)

• No generic solution for adaptation

• These can be methodically identified for each area

• Development interventions can increase resilience for communities vulnerable to climate change

THANK YOU