Post Election Exit PollAnalysis

Post Election Exit PollAnalysis

10 Key Target States

Prepared by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates

December 2020

1

2020 Exit PollAnalysis

State GroupingsWe focused on the 10 battleground states that President Trump won in 2016, but split in 2020.

The Flipped” group are the five

states won by Trump / Pence in2016 , but won by Biden in 2020

Arizona , Georgia , Michigan ,

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin .

The “Held " group are the fivemost competitive states won byTrump / Pence in both 2016 and

2020 Florida , lowa, NorthCarolina , Ohio and Texas.

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Data Sources

• Data is from the National Election Pool's exit polls and AP's VoteCast .

Each state grouping's data is an average of the individual states .

• Sample in each state grouping was :

NEP Exit

Poll

AP

VoteCast

Flipped 15,787 18,100

Held 23,825 17,456

Total 39,612 35,556

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Key Take -Aways : (1 )Despiteturnout for both state groups beingMORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lostground in both groups largely due to a massive swing against POTUS among Indies inboth state groups and more ' in Flipped states.

Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Menin bothstate groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in bothgroups, whilehis performanceamong Blackswas virtually the sameas 2016 .

POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but helostmost with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “ Flipped” states. Worsewas the double-digit erosionhe suffered with White College educated voters across the board.

Voters who did notvote in but voted in accounted for roughly 1 -in - 6 voters andthey broke markedly for Biden, especially in the Flipped” states. 1 - in- 10 voters saytheydecided their vote inthe final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventionalwisdom, they broke in Biden's favor in both state groups.

While Biden's imagewasunderwater inboth stategroups, POTUS's was more so in theFlipped , while he was a net positive in the " states.

VPOTUS held a marked image advantage over Harris in both state groups where hisimage was net positive. Harris's imagewas worse than Biden's in bothstate groups.

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Key Take -Aways : 2 )• While a majority of voters said they didn't find either Presidential candidate

honest or trustworthy, Biden held a double-digit advantage over POTUS,especially in the “ Flipped ” states .

POTUS's overall job approval was mixed with a majority of voters in the Flipped”states disapproving while voters in the “ Held states were split down the middle.However, POTUS earned negative marks on handling of Coronavirus (CV) in both

groups, particularly in flipped states .

Conversely, Fauci garnered nearly a 3 to 1 positive job approval on handling of CVoverallwith Fauci detractors voting overwhelmingly for POTUS while Faucisupporters voted for Biden by wide margins, especially in “ Flipped ” states .

Coronavirus (CV ) was the top issue in both state groups so in “ Flipped ”states and Biden carried those voters nearly 3 to 1. The economy rankedsecond and POTUS crushed Biden with those voters by a 6 to 1 or better margin .

• Voters in “ Flipped states somewhat more negative about the economy than in" Held states , and voters in “ Held states more likely to choose POTUS to handlethe economy .

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Key Take - Aways: ( 3 )

While majorities of voters in both state groups prioritized stopping the spread ofCV over re-opening the economy, the majority was markedly larger in “ Flippedstates . And pluralities in both groups picked Biden as best able to handle CV, notsurprisingly by a larger margin in the " Flipped ” states .

• State groups were split on whether or not CV was under control with a slightmajority of “ Flipped” state voters saying no and a majority of “ Held saying yes .And voters were highly polarized based on these positions with voters who say itis under control voting overwhelmingly for POTUS and those who say it isn'tvoting overwhelmingly for Biden regardless of state group .

Three -quarters of voters in both state groups favored public mask mandates . Notsurprisingly those who opposed them voted overwhelmingly for POTUS with

those who favored them supporting Biden, particularly those in the “ Flipped ”states .

9 - in- 10 voters in both groups said that SCOTUS was a factor in deciding their vote .Ironically , those who said it was a factor voted for Biden in both state groupswhile those who said it wasn't a factor voted for POTUS by large margins.

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Popular Vote ShiftPresident Trump lost 3 net points in the Flipped states vs only 1 net point in the Held states.

Flipped Held60%

52%51%49% 49%

50%

50% 47% 47%45%

40%

30%

20%

10%

+2 Trump -1 +6 Trump -1 +5

0 %

2016 - Flipped 2020 - Flipped 2016 - Held 2016 - Held

Trump Clinton/ Biden Net Trump

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Trends Among Key Demographics

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Party Share of ElectorateIn both the Flipped and Held groupings, the electorates were more Republican in 2020 than they were in 2016.

Flipped Held

50%

45%

38% 38%40%

36%34% 34%

35%35% 33%32% 32%

30% 30%28%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5 %

-2 GOP +6 +4 +3 GOP +80 %

2016 - Flipped 2020 - Lost 2016 - Held 2016 - Held

Republican Democrat Independent Net GOP

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Vote by PartyIn 2016, Trump won Independents by double digits in both the Flipped and Held groupings . They shifted against him significantly in 2020 .

Similar patterns in shifts with GOP voters becoming more hardened in support for Trump but Dem voters picking Biden by an even larger margin thanthey did Hillary. Though POTUS did more GOP voters in Flipped states.

Flipped Held

Trump ClintonNet

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump

Net

ShiftTrump Clinton

Net

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump

Net

Shift

Republican 90 7 +83 92 7 +85 +2 Republican 90 7 +83 94 6 +88 +5

Independent 50 40 +10 44 53 -19 Independent 51 39 +12 46 51 -5 -17

Democrat 8 82 4 95 -911 Democrat 9 90 -81 5 94 -89 -8

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Vote by Race/ Ethnicity & GenderDropoff was evident among White voters , especially men.

Improvement with Hispanic voters was not enough to cancel out losses among White voters .

Flipped Held

Trump ClintonNet

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump

Net

ShiftTrump Clinton

Net

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump

Net

Shift

White 59 36 +23 57 42 +15 -8 White 62 33 +29 62 37 +25 -4

Black 7 91 -84 8 91 -83 +1 Black 9 86 -77 11 88 -77

Hispanic 30 65 -35 36 61 -25 +10 Hispanic 32 62 -30 40 58 -18 +12

White men 65 30 +35 61 38 +23 White men 68 27 +40 66 32 +34 -6

White White54 42 +12 54 45 +9 -3 58 38 +20 58 41 +17 -3

women women

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Vote by Age & EducationVoters over shifted away from POTUS in the states that flipped but largely stuck by his side in the states that he held.

White voters with college degrees were a huge loss for POTUS while those without college degrees stayed in POTUS's column by a larger margin in thestates we held than those that flipped.

Flipped Held

Trump ClintonNet

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump

Net

ShiftTrump Clinton

Net

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump

Net

Shift

18-29 38 54 -17 37 60 -7 18-29 39 52 -12 40 56 -16 -4

30-44 42 50 -8 46 52 -7 +1 30-44 47 46 +2 47 50 -3 -5

45-64 54 42 +12 53 46 +7 -5 45-64 56 42 +14 55 44 +12 -2

65+ 55 42 +13 52 47 +5 -8 65+ 58 40 +17 58 42 +16 -1

White 52 43 +9 47 52 -5 -14 White Colt 58 37 +21 51 48 +3 -18

White <Col 65 30 +35 64 35 +29 -6 White < Col 666 29 +37 69 30 +39 +2

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Voted in 2016 vs. NotA large majority of voters in November's election also said they voted in 2016, while about 1-in-6 did not.

POTUS narrowly won those who had voted in 2016 in the Flipped states, and won them in the Held states by 8 .

Biden won those who didn't vote in 2016 in both groups, by a larger margin in the Flipped states .

Vote History Vote Voted in 2016 Vote - Did Not Vote in 2016

100% 100%

90% 85% 84% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

56%60% 60% 53% 53%50% 49%

50% 50% 45% 45 %42%�40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 15% 16% 20%

10% 10%

+70 +68 +1 +8 -14 -8

0 % 0 %

Flipped Held Flipped Held Flipped Held

Voted in 2016 Did Not Net Voted Trump Biden Net Trump

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Impact of Late DecidersWhile most had their minds made up before the last month, 1-in-10 decided late .

POTUS needed late deciders to break in his direction in the states we flipped, but that did not materialize.

Decided Presidential Vote Vote - Decided in Last Month

100% 100%

86%88%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 49%50% 46%50% 45%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

11% 10%10% 10%

-5 -3

0 % 0 %

Flipped Held Flipped Held

In the Last Month BeforeThat Trump Biden NetTrump

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Candidate Images and Ratings

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Trump & Biden ImagePOTUS's image is stronger in the states that were held, while the reverse is true for Biden.

Trump Image BidenImage60% 60%

52% 51% 52%

48%50%

48% 49%50% 50% 47%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% %

10% 10%

-4 1 % +3 1 % -1 1 % -5 1 %

0 % 0 %


Favorable Unfavorable Know Net Favorable Favorable Unfavorable Don't Know Net Favorable

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Pence & Harris ImagePence's image is in positive territory in both state groupings, especially the states that were held.

On the other hand, Harris is underwater in the Flipped and Held groups.

PenceImage Harris Image60% 60%

52% 52%

49% 49%50% 47 % 50% 46%

44%42%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

4 % 5 % 5 % 6 %

+2 +8 -3 -10

0 % 0 %


Favorable Unfavorable Know NetFavorable Favorable Don't Know Net Favorable

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Trump & Biden Honest / TrustworthyBiden had a clear edge over POTUS on being seen as honest & trustworthy in both state groupings .

Trump Honest & Trustworthy Biden - Honest & Trustworthy70% 70%

59%60% 57% 60%

52% 52%48% 48%

50% 50%

43%41%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

-18 -14 -4 -40 % 0 %


Yes No NetYes Yes No NetYes

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Trump Job Approval & CV Job ApprovalPOTUS's job approvalwas split dead even in the Held states, and narrowly underwater in those that flipped.

Marginallyworse off on his CV job approval compared to his overall.

Trump Job Approval Trump CV Job Approval60% 60%

54%52%

50% 50% 51%48% 49%

50% 50% 46%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

-4 -8 -20 % 0 %


Approve Disapprove Net Approve Approve Disapprove NetApprove

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Fauci CV Job ApprovalDr. Fauci had a very strong job approval in both groupings, with nearly 3- in-4 voters approving of the job he did.

Biden won those who approved by significant margins, especially in the states that he flipped.

Fauci CV Job Approval Vote - ApproveFauci Vote - Fauci

100% 100%

90% 90% 83% 83%

80%72% 73% 80%

70% 70% 63%

58%60% 60%

50% 50%

40%

40% 40% 35%

28% 27%30% 30%

20% 20% 15% 15%

10% 10%

+44 +46 -28 -18 +68 +680 % 0 %


Approve Disapprove Net Approve Trump Biden NetTrump

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Issues and Impacts

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Most Important IssueCoronavirus was the most important issue followed by the economy . Significant falloff after those two big issues .

While POTUS dominated among voters focused on the economy, Biden won Coronavirus voters , which was a bigger share of the electorate , especiallyin the Flipped states .

Most ImportantIssue Flipped Held

45% 42%

39% Trump BidenNet

TrumpTrump Biden

Net

Trump40%

35%

30% Coronavirus 26 73 -47 28 71 -43

30% %

25% Economy 84 15 +69 85 13 +75

20%

Healthcare 34 64 -30 -23

9 %7 %

4 %3 % 3 % 3 %

1 %

10%

38 6110 %

7 %

43 % 3 % 3 %

1 %

Racism 18 80 -62 22 76 -54

5 %

0 %Law

Enforcement82 17 +65 81 17 +64

Flipped Held

15 82Climate

Change-67 15

CoronavirusRacism

Abortion

83EconomyLaw Enforcement

Climate Change

-68Health care

ImmigrationForeign Policy

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Impact of the EconomyOpinions of the state of the economy were mixed rather than an area of strength.

POTUS's edge on the economy was more defined in the states we held vs. those that flipped.

State of Economy Better to Handle Economy60% 60%

54%51%50%49%

51%48%

50% 50% 47%

43%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

-1 +3 +4 +110 % 0 %


Excellent/ Good Fair /Poor Net Excellent/ Good Trump Biden NetTrump

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Impact of CoronavirusVoters prioritized stopping the spread of coronavirus over reopening the economy in both groupings, larger in the states that flipped.

Biden was seen as better to handle coronavirus than POTUS by 9-points in the Flipped group and 4-points in the Held.

PrioritizeEconomyor CV Better to Handle CV70% 70%

60%

60% 57% 60%

48%50% 50%

45%43%

40% 39%41%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

-20 -14 -9 -40 % 0 %


Fix Econ/ Spread CV CV/ Econ Net Fix Econ Trump Biden NetTrump

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Impact of Perceived CV Level of ControlThe electorates were divided on whether CV was at least somewhat under control when they went to vote in November, slightly better in the Held states .

Perception of control was closely linked to vote, with POTUS doing well with those who thought it was under control, but Biden winning most of those whosaid not at all under control .

Level of CV Control Vote At Least Smwt Under Control Vote Not at All Under Control

100% 100%

90% 90% 83% 84% 83% 81%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

49% 51% 52%48%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%

18%20% 20% 15% 15% 15%

10% 10%

-2 +4 +68 +69 -68 -630 % 0 %


Completely/Mostly/ Smwt Notat NetControl Trump Biden NetTrump

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Mask Mandates

Three quarters of voters favored mask mandates both in the Flipped and Held groups.

Biden ran up the score with this large majority of voters, especially in the states that flipped.

Public Mask Mandates Vote - Favor Mandate Vote - Oppose Mandate

100% 100%

87% 87%90% 90%

80% 75% 76% 80%

70% 70% 64%

58%60% 60%

50% 50%

40%

40% 40% 35%

30% 25% 24% 30%

20% 20%

11% 11%

10% 10%

+50 +52 -29 -18 +76 +760 % 0 %


Favor Oppose Net Favor Trump Biden NetTrump

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Impact of Supreme CourtWhile the vast majorityof voters said the Supreme Court was a factor in their vote, POTUS did worse amongthis group than he did amongthose whosaid it was not, a changevs. fouryears ago.

Factor inVote Vote Factor inVote Vote SC Not a Factor in Vote

100% 100%

90% 90%90% 90%

80% 80% 74%71%

70% 70%

60% 60%

52% 51%46%

48%50% 50%

40% 40 %

27%30% 30% 24%

20% 20%

10% 10%10% 10%

+80 +80 -6 -3 +44 +500 % 0 %


Factor Not a Factor Net Factor Trump Biden NetTrump

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Documents

Post Election Exit PollAnalysis