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Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members. Michael Bocian Principal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Four Key Strategic Decisions That Guided Our Work. Key Strategic Decision #1. Define McCain in May while Obama and Clinton were slugging it out. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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November 21, 2008
Michael BocianPrincipal, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Post-Election Analysis of NEA’s 2008 Campaign Communications Among Members
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 3 |
April 19, 2023
Key Strategic Decision #1
Define McCain in May while Obama and Clinton were
slugging it out
4 more years of George Bush
Out of touch with economic challenges
Out of touch with public schools
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 4 |
April 19, 2023
Key Strategic Decision #2
Introduce Obama in the summer with
heavy bio elements
Tackle questions of race, religion and patriotism
Use parental involvement to
establish values
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 5 |
April 19, 2023
Key Strategic Decision #3
Center our message on the
economy and the middle class
Middle class tax cuts vs. tax breaks
for millionaires
McCain tax on employer
sponsored health care
Incentives to create jobs in America
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 6 |
April 19, 2023
Key Strategic Decision #4
Be more targeted in choosing which states to play in and which
members/households to communicate with
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 8 |
April 19, 2023
Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS
4657 53
62 5766
5665
4638 41
36 35 32 32 32
0
20
40
60
80
Spring2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Obama McCain
Ohio Pennsylvania Florida North Carolina
+12
+26
0
+22+19
+34+24
+33
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 9 |
April 19, 2023
Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS
5763
5664 60
7261 65 66 69
33 33 31 32 30 26 30 33 28 29
0
20
40
60
80
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Obama McCain
Nevada Michigan Iowa New Mexico
+24+30
+25+32
+30
+46
+31 +32 +38 +40
Virginia
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 10 |
April 19, 2023
Post Communication Movement Among MEMBERS
6674
69 70 69 72 72 75 75 74
25 2227 29 25 25 22 23 20 23
0
20
40
60
80
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Obama McCain
Colorado Missouri MinnesotaNew
Hampshire
+41+52
+42 +41 +44+47 +55 +51
Oregon
+50 +52
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 11 |
April 19, 2023
Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS
3945 48
5851 54 54 57
50 46 41 39 42 44 42 41
0
20
40
60
80
Spring2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Obama McCain
Ohio Nevada North Carolina Pennsylvania
-11 -1 +7 +19 +9 +10 +12 +16
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 12 |
April 19, 2023
Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS
51 54 56 53 55 55 5765
38 37 40 4437 41 38 33
0
20
40
60
80
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Obama McCain
Michigan Missouri Virginia Florida
+13+17 +16 +9
+18 +14 +19+32
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 13 |
April 19, 2023
Post Communication Movement Among HOUSEHOLDS
60 60 59 57 61 60 61 60
36 38 3440 35 37 32 36
0
20
40
60
80
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Summer2008
Nov2008
Obama McCain
Colorado Iowa Minnesota New Hampshire
+24 +22 +25 +17 +26 +23 +29 +24
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 14 |
April 19, 2023
Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS
5057 58 62 59 64 61 63
4938 42
36 4032 37 33
0
20
40
60
80
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Democrat Republican
Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan Nevada
+24 +30+19+32
+16 +26+1
+19
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 15 |
April 19, 2023
64 6671 72 72 75 74 74
35 32 29 26 27 23 26 25
0
20
40
60
80
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Kerry2004
Obama2008
Democrat Republican
Florida Iowa New Hampshire Minnesota
Obama Vote Compared to Kerry’s in 2004 MEMBERS
+29 +34 +42 +46 +45 +52 +48 +49
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 16 |
April 19, 2023
5566
55 5864
72 72 71 7079
4132
3726
3326 24 28
20 200
20
40
60
80
MerkleyJune 08
MerkleyNovember
08
FrankenJune 08
FrankenNovember
08
T. UdallJune 08
T. UdallNovember
08
ShaheenJune 08
ShaheenNovember
08
M. UdallJune 08
M. UdallNovember
08
Democrat Republican
Colorado Senate
Minnesota Senate
New Hampshire
Senate
New MexicoSenate
Senate Races MEMBERS
+18+31
+48 +50+32
+46 +43+59
OregonSenate
+14
+34
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 17 |
April 19, 2023
46 46
5863 64 63
50
37 33 35 3137
0
20
40
60
80
Franken June08
FrankenNovember 08
M. Udall June08
M. UdallNovember 08
ShaheenJune 08
ShaheenNovember 08
Democrat Republican
Colorado Senate
Minnesota Senate
New Hampshire Senate
Senate Races HOUSEHOLDS
-4 +25+33+9 +28 +26
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 18 |
April 19, 2023
77 7868 70
49
70
1722 25 28
46
28
0
20
40
60
80
Nixon June08
NixonNovember 08
Perdue June08
PerdueNovember 08
Hagan June08
HaganNovember 08
Democrat Republican
North CarolinaGubernatorial
Missouri Gubernatorial
North CarolinaSenate
Governors Races/North Carolina MEMBERS
+60+43
+3
+56+42
+42
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 19 |
April 19, 2023
66 6256 58
4653
2836 37 40
47 45
0
20
40
60
80
Nixon June08
NixonNovember 08
Perdue June08
PerdueNovember 08
Hagan June08
HaganNovember 08
Democrat Republican
North CarolinaGubernatorial
Missouri Gubernatorial
North CarolinaSenate
Governors Races/North Carolina HOUSEHOLDS
+38+19 -1
+26+18 +8
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 20 |
April 19, 2023
Huge Improvement on Oregon Ballot Measures
72
39
95
81
86
68
20
32
14
33
12
13
21
64
33
4
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nov 08
June 08
Nov 08
June 08
Nov 08
June 08
Nov 08
June 08YesNo
Now I would like to ask you about the Oregon ballot Initiatives. Did you vote yes, in favor of the measure, or no to oppose it?
Measure 56: Provides that May and November property tax elections are decided by a majority of voters voting
Measure 58: Prohibits teaching public school student in language other than English for more than two years.
Measure 60: Teacher Classroom Performance, Not Seniority, Determines Pay Raises; Most Qualified Teachers Retained, Regardless of Seniority
Measure 64: Penalizes Person, Entity For Using Funds Collected With Public Resource For Political Purpose
+1
+44
-47
-73
-69
-91
-6
-58
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 21 |
April 19, 2023
19
68
10
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
Yes No Yes No
Let me ask about Amendment 49, also known as Colorado Limitation on Public Payroll Deductions. Did you vote YES to enact this amendment or NO to reject this amendment, or did you not vote on this amendment?
Let me ask about Amendment 54, also known as Campaign Contributions from Certain Government Contractors. Did you vote YES to enact this initiative or NO to reject this initiative, or did you not vote on this amendment?
Post Colorado Ballot Measures - Members
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 23 |
April 19, 2023
4133
0
10
20
30
40
50
NEA Members Nation*
How Persuadable were Our Targets?Percentage among Barack Obama supporters who said they considered voting for John McCain
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 24 |
April 19, 2023
3429
0
10
20
30
40
50
NEA Members Nation*
How Persuadable were Our Targets?Percentage among John McCain supporters who said they considered voting for Barack Obama
*Note: Data from Democracy Corps National Survey
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 25 |
April 19, 2023
84
65
2490
20
40
60
80
100
FOR BarackObama
AGAINST JohnMcCain
FOR John McCain AGAINST BarackObama
Obama Voters Cast an Affirmative VoteIn the election for President did you mainly vote FOR Barack Obama or AGAINST John McCain?
In the election for President did you mainly vote FOR John McCain or AGAINST Barack Obama?
Obama Voters McCain Voters
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 26 |
April 19, 2023
The Issue and Messages – Targeted Members/Households
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 27 |
April 19, 2023
Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that people have. Please tell me which ONE of these you think the President and Congress should be paying the most attention to.
3
6
5
8
14
12
39
1
0 20 40 60
Illegal immigration
Energy and gas prices
Taxes
Health care
Education
Terrorism and national security
The war in Iraq
The economy and jobs
Top concern Second concern
Economic Concerns Dominate
59
27
25
20
17
16
12
4
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 28 |
April 19, 2023
11
12
12
18
27
29
0 10 20 30 40
Health care
Iraq
Personal qualities
Education
Economy/Middle class
Change/Vision
Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR Barack Obama?
Change, Economy-Middle Class Drove Obama’s Support
Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 29 |
April 19, 2023
8
10
8
8
15
17
5
0 10 20 30 40
He will invest in alternative energy
He will work to increase parental responsibility andinvolvement in schools
He will better handle the financial crisis
He will increase education funding
He will expand health care coverage
He will provide tax cuts to the middle class
He will change No Child Left Behind
Top concern Second choice
Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote for Barack Obama?
Economic & Education Specifics Stood Out for Obama
27
26
20
19
18
15
13
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 30 |
April 19, 2023
5
6
10
13
13
30
0 10 20 30 40
Health care
Education
Too old
Economy/financial crisis/sides withmillionaires/big biz
Iraq
Bush/won't bring change
And what was the biggest concern you had about John McCain?
Desire for Change Drove McCain Concerns
Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 31 |
April 19, 2023
4
6
9
10
8
13
18
2
0 10 20 30 40
He voted against increasing the minimum wage
He voted against children's health insurance
He voted to cut education funding
His health care plan would tax people with employersponsored health care
He supported paying teachers based on student testscores
He won't reform No Child Left Behind
He voted for tax breaks for millionaires instead of themiddle class
He would continue Bush's economic policies
Top concern Second choice
Regardless of who you voted for, thinking about everything you heard during the campaign, which ONE of the following was the most persuasive reason to vote against John McCain?
Economic Specifics Stood Out About McCain
27
25
20
18
18
12
9
4
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 32 |
April 19, 2023
12
14
16
18
28
0 10 20 30 40
Econ/Taxes
Pro-life
Iraq/Security/Foreignpolicy
Personal qualities(trustworthy, values)
Experience/militarybackground
Now thinking about everything you've heard during the campaign, what was the most persuasive reason to vote FOR John McCain?
Experience Powered McCain’s Support
Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 33 |
April 19, 2023
10
15
17
17
31
0 10 20 30 40
Abortion
Taxes/economy
Liberal/spread the wealth
Religion/Wright/Ayers/patriotism/race
Lack of experience
And what was the biggest concern you had about Barack Obama?
Experience Main Question About Obama
Figures are summaries from responses to open-ended questions.
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 34 |
April 19, 2023
Means of Communication – Targeted Members/Households
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 35 |
April 19, 2023
7
22
45
86
0 20 40 60 80 100
Face-to-face
Receive e-mails
Receive phone calls
Received mail
Do you remember receiving any mail/phone calls/e-mails/visits from representatives of the state affiliate or the National Education Association about the election for President or other offices?
Penetration of NEA Communications
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 36 |
April 19, 2023
12
22 21
27
0
10
20
30
40
A few pieces About 4 or 5 pieces 6 to 10 pieces 10 or more pieces
How much mail would you say you received from the state NEA or National Education Association? Did you receive just a few pieces, about four or five pieces, six to ten pieces, or ten or more pieces of mail from the state NEA or National Education Association?
Nearly Half of Targeted Homes Recalled More Than 5 Mail Pieces
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 37 |
April 19, 2023
26
10
0
10
20
30
40
Colorado All States
Do you remember any representatives of the state NEA or the National Education Association speaking at meetings or visiting your work place to discuss the election for President or other offices?
Colorado Face-to-Face Program Noteworthy
*Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 38 |
April 19, 2023
10
84
320
20
40
60
80
100
Yes, for state NEA Yes, for a candidate Yes, Other No
Most people don't have the time to volunteer in elections. How about you? Did you participate as a volunteer in this year's elections for an organization or an individual candidate?
Volunteer Activities Mostly for Candidates, Not Union
*Note: Values denote those that responded “YES”
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 39 |
April 19, 2023
Lessons Learned – What We Did Well
Better targeting — Pulled out of states that were becoming non-competitive — Delivered more communications to the persuadable members with modeling— Turnout optimization modeling
Important sequencing – defined McCain at the right time, introduced Obama at the right time, offered a contrast at the right time
Delivered a message that fit into the candidate’s narrative
Offered a real narrative with compelling visuals and creative ideas, rather than a list of issue positions
Innovative new ideas (e.g., creative websites)
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 40 |
April 19, 2023
Lessons Learned – What We Can Do Better
More fully develop our face-to-face program and learn from best practices
Better understand how to communicate with households
Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 41 |
April 19, 2023
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