Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

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ECBI Regional Workshop Bangkok, 2007

Ilona Millar & M.J. MaceFIELDLondon

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Two negotiating processes established to address future commitments

• Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group (AWG)– Open to all Parties– Considers future commitments for Annex I Parties

• Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention

– Open to all Parties– Considers cooperative action to promote existing global

agreement under UNFCCC

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1. Ad Hoc Working Group on Article 3.9• Tasked to consider further commitments for Annex I

Parties beyond 2012 under the KP• Aims to complete work as early as possible, to ensure no

gap between first and second commitment periods• Has now met four times May 2006, Dec. 2006, May

2007, Aug. 2007; AWG4 will resume at COP/MOP 3• Discussed written submissions of Parties, oral statements• Considered a process for its future work

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AWG 1: Bonn, May 2006Chair’s indicative list of topics relevant to work

1. Scientific basis for determining level of ambition for further Annex I commitments

– Scenarios for stabilising GHG concentrations (to guide KP’s role in contributing to ultimate objective of UNFCCC)

– Adverse impacts; costs of impacts and adaptation– Other relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information

2. Emissions trends, mitigation potential of Annex I Parties

– Costs of impacts and adaptation– Socio-economic drivers, PAMs– Sectoral analyses and impacts on competitiveness

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3. Experience gained in implementing the KP• methodologies, LULUCF, PAMS, flex mechs, demonstrable progress

4. Architecture of further commitments for Annex I Parties • Length of commitment period• review of sectors and sources of emissions• differentiation and burden sharing• feasibility of measures to complement targets, e.g., sectoral approaches• contribution of flexible mechanisms• incentives for development, deployment of technology

5. Legal matters• Scope of amendments to Annex B, elements of KP to be amended or

supplemented to give effect to Annex B amendments• Entry into force of amendments to Annex B, avoidance of gap.

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AWG-2: Nairobi, Nov 2006In-session workshop

Agreement on work programme for 2007:• Analysis of mitigation potential, effectiveness, efficiency,

costs, benefits, of current and future policies, measures and technologies, taking into account their economic and social consequences, their sectoral dimensions, and the international context in which they are deployed

• Identification of possible ranges of emission reductions by Annex I Parties, through their domestic and international efforts, and analysis of their contribution to the ultimate objective of the Convention

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AWG-3: Bonn, May 2007Roundtable discussion

• On mitigation potential of policies, measures and technologies at the disposal of Annex I Parties.

• AWG notes useful parameters for its work from roundtable:– According to IPCC scenarios analysed to date, global emissions of GHGs

need to be reduced to very low levels, well below half of levels in 2000 by the middle of the 21th century to stabilise concentrations at the lowest level analysed to date.

• AWG noted inputs made by Parties, presenters, observers, highlighting– Urgency with which reductions needed– Mitigation efforts in next decades to determine increase in global mean

temperature over long term (end century)– GHG emissions need to peak in 10-15 years– This calls for a 25-40% reduction by Annex I Parties below 1990 levels for

the period beyond 2012– Mitigation potential could be expanded through use of flex mechs and sinks

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AWG 4: Vienna Aug. 2007Mitigation potentials and identification of emission

reduction objectives of Annex I Parties• Technical paper (FCCC/TP/2007/1)

– ‘Synthesis of information relevant to the determination of the mitigation potential and to the identification of possible ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties’

• AWG Conclusions:– To achieve lowest stabilization level assessed to date by IPCC (450 ppm) would

require Annex I Parties to reduce by 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020.– Global emissions of GHGs need to peak in next 10-15 years– Be reduced to very low levels, ‘well below half of 2000 levels’ by mid 20th Cent.

– Greater mitigation potential available through wider use of the flex mechs.– Note concern of SIDS and some developing countries that lower stabilisation

concentrations levels below 450 ppm need to be analysed• Views by 9 November 2007 on timetable to complete work• AWG 4 part II - resume in Bali (work on possible ranges)• AWG 5 - June 2008 (possible means to achieve mitigation objectives).

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2. Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation of the

Convention• 4 workshops, beginning May 2006• Exchange of experiences, strategic approaches for

long-term cooperative action on: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) addressing action on adaptation; (3) realising the full potential of technology; (4) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities.

• Informed by best available scientific information.

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Forum was designed to: – identify actions to promote research, development and

deployment of cleaner technologies; – identify ways to support voluntary actions by developing

countries– identify ways to promote access by developing countries to

climate-friendly technologies and technologies for adaptation.

Open and non-binding discussion, held ‘without prejudice to any future negotiations, commitments, process, framework or mandate under the Convention.’

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Results to date:• Far ranging discussions, constructive atmosphere• Last of four workshops held in Vienna in August 2007• First Co-facilitators’ report produced for COP-12• Second Report will be produced for COP-13.• Dialogue Working Paper 8:

• ‘Report on analysis of existing and potential investment and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change’ - input to 4th workshop

• October 31 – secretariat to convene workshop to build upon report and ideas expressed in Dialogue

• Parties to consider whether/how to continue the Dialogue or to convert it into formal negotiations

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Dialogue Scenario Note: Common elements that may provide direction to the regime

• A long-term goal, consistent with what the science tells us, to provide overall direction to the regime, with short-term reduction objectives for developed countries and strategies for cleaner development paths for developing countries, all reflecting different national circumstances;

• how positive incentives could be provided for actions put forward by developing countries in line with sustainable development policies and objectives;

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• market mechanisms, including the carbon market, and other fiscal and regulatory approaches that can reduce the cost of mitigation, provide incentives for cleaner development and help mobilize the required investment;

• The need to ensure that adaptation is addressed with a sense of urgency and in a comprehensive manner by all Parties, supported by effective regional and international cooperative action;

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• Efforts to stimulate the diffusion, transfer and deployment of existing lower emissions technologies and to promote investment in the development and demonstration of additional technological solutions;

• Mitigation opportunities in specific sectors that would allow countries with varying national circumstances to contribute actively to the effort. e.g., initiatives in sectors such as cement and in reducing emissions from deforestation.

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Report of the Co-Chairs• Building Blocks

– Mitigation (Energy, SD-PAMS, REDD, bunker fuels & other sectors)

– Adaptation (priority areas, financing)– Technology (key to less carbon intensive

development)– Finance & Investment Flows– Others? (unintended consequences, means of

implementation, capacity building)

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Report of the Co-Chairs• Possible ways to continue the work of the

Dialogue– Continuation as a Dialogue– Negotiating item on the agenda– Special Working Group– Revision of the whole COP and COP/MOP

agenda• Timeframe – end 2009

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Bali Roadmap• Ministerial meeting held in Bogor, Indonesia 24-25

October 2007 (Chairman’s summary)– 35 Countries including major emitters such as US & China– Generally broad support for moving the process of discussions

forward with main building blocks identified in the Dialogue• Process? – possibly a contact group

– Going forward – need for intense negotiations during the 2 years i.e. more frequent meetings than just SB & COP COP/MOP

• Big issues?– Scope of a new negotiating track and relationship to the Kyoto

Protocol ie: is this only for developing countries and non-ratifiers?– How to link the different negotiating tracks– Role of outside processes e.g. G8, Major Economies

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What do Developing Countries want to see in a Post-2012 Agreement?

• On Mitigation– Level of global ambition (long term and short term goals?)– Action by large emitting developing countries– Role of Different Sectors – esp. Forestry, Bunker Fuels

• On Adaptation– Financing– Support for on the ground activities– Sustainable Development - mainstreaming

• On Technology – Effective transfer and deployment of clean technologies– Funding for TT e.g. to obtain IPRs

• On Financing– New and innovative types of finance (e.g. insurance mechanisms)– Appropriate levels of financing for adaptation (levies, AF etc.)– Enhanced ability to participate in the carbon market

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Thank you for your attention.

FIELDwww.field.org.uk

Ilona.millar@field.org.ukTel: +44 20 7388-2117Fax: +44 20 7388-2826

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