Possible Updates to DEER Measureson the ESPI Uncertain Measure List

Measures Main Issues for Update

Screw-in CFLs of all types

Update of the gross baseline assumptions to account for CFLs replacing CFLs will also alter NTG and installation rate due to inter-relationships of values. Previous NTG values included CFL-CFL replacements, so net and gross analysis needs coordinated update. Details of amounts and timing of lamps placed into storage and removed to be installed require coordination with net and gross analysis.

T5 fluorescent lamps and fixtures replacing metal halide

Update baseline of replaced lamp assumptions, net savings and installation rate; market move to T5 technology requires verification of assumptions.

Rank in each IOU Listand 2013 claims

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Measures PG&E SCE SDG&E

Screw-in CFLs of all types 2/3 1/1 1/1

T5 fluorescent lamps and fixtures replacing metal halide

6/2 2/2 n/a

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Table 63: Installation Trajectory Analysis – Statewide Sprial and A-LampSpiral and A-Lamp 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Program discounted bulbs 23 23.7 17.2 18.3 15 15Bulbs going to non-res 1.2 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1Sold in Following year 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8Total program CFLs 21.9 24.8 18.9 19.1 16.1 15.8Total Market CFLs bought 31.2 35.4 31.4 31.8 32.3 31.5CFLs Installed at start of year 77 87.8 99.9 105.7 110.5 114.7CFLs in storage at start of year 27.9 29.4 31.2 31.8 32.3 32.8CFLs burning out / breakage 11.6 13.2 15 15.9 16.6 17.2CFLs early-replacement 7.7 8.8 10 10.6 11.1 11.5CFLs out of storage 19.3 21.9 25 26.4 27.6 28.7CFLs left in storage 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.4 4.7 4.1Net increase in stock 12 13.5 6.4 5.3 4.7 2.8CFLs to permanent storage 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1Net Storage 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3Net installs 10.8 12.1 5.8 4.8 4.2 2.5Number installed at end of year 87.8 99.9 105.7 110.5 114.7 117.2Number in Permanent storage at end of year 1.2 1.6 1.8 2 2.1 2.2

CFL-CFL Replacements

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Total Market CFLs bought 31.2 35.4 31.4 31.8 32.3 31.5Total program CFLs 21.9 24.8 18.9 19.1 16.1 15.8

Program % of market 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50%

CFLs burning out / breakage 11.6 13.2 15 15.9 16.6 17.2as % of installed 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

CFLs early-replacement 7.7 8.8 10 10.6 11.1 11.5as % of installed 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

Total replaced CFLs 19.3 22 25 26.5 27.7 28.7% replaced of total bought 62% 62% 80% 83% 86% 91%

Number installed at start of year 87.8 99.9 105.7 110.5 114.7Replacements as % of installed 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

Replacements as % of bought 62% 80% 83% 86% 91%

Effect on EUL

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Replacement Rate15% 25%

Year Surviving Percent0 100% 100%1 85% 75%2 72% 56%3 61% 42%4 52% 32%5 44% 24%6 38% 18%7 32% 13%8 27% 10%9 23% 8%

10 20% 6%

Updating Some NTG ValuesMay be Appropriate

7

CFL Lab Testing ResultsMortality Curves by Switching Cycle and Run-Time

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Normalized Lamp Life for Each CFL Model

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