http://fire.pppl.gov

Possible Strategies for a Broadened Fast Track Approach to Fusion Energy

Dale MeadePrinceton Plasma Physics laboratorySymposium on Fusion Engineering

Knoxville, TNSeptember 28, 2005

The Most Frequently Asked Questions

• Q - When will we get fusion energy?

• A - 35 years to a non commercial DEMO

• Q - Why is something so important taking so long?

• A - Tougher than we thought, not enough money,

various excuses.

• End of Conversation

EU Fast Track Strategy• In response to criticism from various European scientists that fusion would

take 50 years, and the “87 questions from the Bundestag”, the EU initiated a study in 2001 led by Sir David King.

• Bottom Line - 35 years to a non commercial DEMO

References: Fire Fusion Library

• Accelerated Development of Fusion Power, I Cook, N Taylor, D Ward, L Baker, T Hender, UKAEA FUS 521 EURATOM/UKAEA Fusion, Feb 2005, D. Maisonnier ISFNT 2005

• Excerpts from Cris Lewellyn Smith’s IAEA 2004 Talk, and US visit in 2005

PRELIMINARYyear 0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

4525 30 35 405 10 15 20

conceptual design

construction

operateToday's expts

licenseH & D operation low-duty D-T

operationhigh-duty D-T operation

TBM: checkout and characterisation

TBM performance tests

second D-T operation phaseITER

EVEDA (design)

IFMIF

engineering designconstruction phase 1 blanket

construct & install

phase 2 blanket

construct & install

blanket:

operation phase 1operation phase 2blanket design &

prototypingphase 2 blanket

designlicense

DEMO

engineering design construction operateconceptual designlicense

Power plant

blanket optimisation

plasma performance confirmation

materials characterisation

materials optimisation

plasma optimisation

design optimisation for high availability

plasma optimisation

technology issues (e.g. plasma-surface interactions)

plasma issues (e.g. disruption avoidance)

operation: steels testingconstruction other materials testing

C. Lewellyn Smith IAEA 2004

EU Fast Track Strategy

2. JA / EU roadmap to Fusion DEMO

2010 2015 2020 2025 2035

DecomissioningConstruction

Development of breeding blanket

Fusion material development (inc. IFMIF)

Achieve Q=20, 400sAchieve Q~5 steady-state operationProof of principle of breeding blanket

Confirm physics database

Confirm material database

DEMO physics input for starting EDA

construction power production

Grid connection

licencing

2005FY

ITER program

Satelite TokamaksAnd other devices

Fusion technology development

DEMO

Basic performance phase

Decision of construction

JT-60 and JET

2030

Performance extension phase

Test of breeding blanket

Coordination of DEMO physics and tech. R&D

CDA-like EDA/R&DConcept exploration

- 3 -

US 35 Year Plan

• Requested by DOE to bolster case for US joining ITER negotiations.

• 35 years to first electricity production using MFE or IFE

• Report generally characterized as DOA in Washington

Official Plans are Really “Slow track”

• Its been 30 years to DEMO for 55 years.

• Twenty years since the start of ITER discussions, and construction has not yet started.

• As a result fusion gets one paragraph in serious books or article about future energy sources.

• We used to have more ambitious plans

• 1976 Plan

• 1980 MFE act

• Mid 80s Plans e.g., Technical Planning Activity

1976 US Plan for Fusion

• Logic V became the basis for the MFE Act of 1980.

• The US Fusion Program evolved from Logic IV to Logic I - we never get there.

Fusion Power by Magnetic Fusion Program Plan July 1976 ERDA – 76/110/1

Base program only

The Magnetic Fusion Engineering Act of 1980

• Operation of Fusion Engineering Device (burning plasma and tests of components for engineering purposes) by 1990 ( 9 years)

• Operation of Fusion DEMO by 2000- prototype energy (electricity production) system of sufficient size to provide safety, availability and ready extrapolation to commercial size, need not be economically competitive with then existing energy sources. (19 years)

• Budget (relative to October 7, 1980 -start of FY 1981):

• 1982 +20%

• 1983 + 20%

• double budget within 7 years

• without inflation

.- How did we do relative to this plan?

Comparison of MFE Act with Actual Budget/Progress

The FED (burning plasma and technology tests) should have been done by end of 2001 according to the actual money spent on MFE).

DEMO

FEDFED

External Conditions are Changing

• Concerns about energy supplies have risen to awareness levels not seen since the mid 1970s.

• oil reserves

• growing demand

• global climate change

• Manhattan Project for Alternate Energy- T . Freidman NY Times Sep-05

• Fusion is seldom mentioned as an important part of the solution except near the end of this century - by then other energy sources will have filled the gap.

• If a second energy crisis appears, we should be ready. Fusion was able to catch the wave with the 1970’s Energy Crisis because“ we” were ready.

How fast could we find out if fusion energy is a possibility?

• Change the goal from DEMO date to a Proof of Fusion date. Did we establish the scientific feasibility of fusion or is it yet to be done??

• What are the two or three key issues that if settled would convince decision makers that fusion energy was credible?

• How fast could these be addressed?

• What could fusion do in a decade?

• Is a totally new paradigm needed?non-government involvementa new community approach

We should know the answer these questions!!!!

The Fusion in a Decade Challenge

• What could be done in the next decade to increase the credibility of fusion?

Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not be realized. D. Burnham, architect

J. Sethian 2003

Some Possibilities

• Operation of Fusion Engineering Device (burning plasma and tests of components for engineering purposes) within a decade

• Advanced FIRE described yesterday is an example

• other tokamak based systems

• ICF already has NIF delivering a burning plasma within 5 years.

ITER and FIRE would provide a strong basis for Adv. DEMO

FIRE ARIES-RSITER

ITER FIRE ARIES-RSFusion Gain 10(H), 5(AT) 10(H), 5(AT) 25 (AT)

Fusion Power (MW) 500 - 350 150 2170

Power Density(MWm-3) 0.6 5.6 6.2

Wall Loading n(MWm-2) 0.6 2 4

Pulse Duration (s) (CR, % equilibrated)

500 - 30002 -10, 86 - >99.9%

20 - 352 - 5, 86 - >99%

20,000,000steady

Mass of Fusion Core (tonnes) 23,000 1,400 13,000

High Power DensityPf/V~ 6 MWm-3

p ~10 atmn ≈ 4 MWm-2

High GainQ ~ 25 - 50

nET ~ 6x1021 m-3skeVP/Pheat = f ≈ 90%

Low rotation

Steady-State~ 90% Bootstrap

ARIES Studies have Defined the Critical Plasma and Technology Issues for Fusion Energy

Plasma ExhaustPheat/Rx ~ 100MW/m

Helium PumpingTritium Retention

Plasma ControlFueling

Current DriveRWM Stabilization

Significant advances are needed in each area. Metrics are needed in each area to measure progress.

Fusion Needs Metrics to Measure Progress

• need to be understandable

• need several metrics for each major issue

• track progress against plan

Some examples -

Fusion Power or Fusion Energy/pulse vs year

Lawson, BE

pressure, (which one ? Plasma , fusion

pulse length s, time constants

Power densities - plasma, wall, blanket, etc

I want you to get on with fusion,

Uncle Sam’s Thoughts on the Fast Track

and make a major step forward within a decade.