A safe and robust society – where everyone takes responsibility

Possible scenarios and challenges for Possible scenarios and challenges for

CBRN preparednessCBRN preparedness

Tone D. BerganTone D. Bergan

Senior adviser, Section for Analysis and Research,Senior adviser, Section for Analysis and Research,

Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning

�� DSB, CBRN cooperation, different risksDSB, CBRN cooperation, different risks

�� CBRN ChallengesCBRN Challenges

�� CBRN scenariosCBRN scenarios

�� Terrorism vs. accidents Terrorism vs. accidents –– accidents do happenaccidents do happen

�� Can we sleep at night?Can we sleep at night?

OverviewOverview

Operational conceptOperational concept�� Have full overview over developing vulnerable situations and risHave full overview over developing vulnerable situations and risksks

which threaten society which threaten society –– in peacetime and warin peacetime and war

�� Take Take initiatives to prevent accidents, disasters and other undesired initiatives to prevent accidents, disasters and other undesired occurrences and ensure that preparedness measures are adequate occurrences and ensure that preparedness measures are adequate

�� In the event of inadequate safety and preparedness measures takeIn the event of inadequate safety and preparedness measures take

initiative for follow up with the responsible authorities initiative for follow up with the responsible authorities

Class

ified

Cla

ssifi

ed

Need for an overall National planNeed for an overall National plan

�� In 1999 the Ministry of Justice and the Police decided there wasIn 1999 the Ministry of Justice and the Police decided there was a a need for an overall national plan for preparedness against weaponeed for an overall national plan for preparedness against weapons ns of mass destruction of mass destruction

�� Background: NATOBackground: NATO’’s new Strategic Concepts new Strategic Concept

�� Plan finished in 2003, and a subject/vocational group with Plan finished in 2003, and a subject/vocational group with participants from relevant professional bodies established.participants from relevant professional bodies established.

�� The aim of the National plan is to give an overview of managemenThe aim of the National plan is to give an overview of management t and coordinating mechanisms, conditions of responsibility and and coordinating mechanisms, conditions of responsibility and availability of resources.availability of resources.

�� The plan proposes interventions to be implemented, based on The plan proposes interventions to be implemented, based on already established agency preparedness and other principles of already established agency preparedness and other principles of responsibility.responsibility.

�� Reviewed and updated autum 2007Reviewed and updated autum 2007

ParticipantsParticipants

�� DSBDSB

�� Directorate for the Police, and the Police Intelligence ServiceDirectorate for the Police, and the Police Intelligence Service

�� Directorate for human healthDirectorate for human health

�� The National human health instituteThe National human health institute

�� The Defence microbiological lab.The Defence microbiological lab.

�� The Military head commandThe Military head command

�� The Military CBRN training centreThe Military CBRN training centre

�� The Defence Research EstablishmentThe Defence Research Establishment

�� The Norwegian Radiation Protection AuthorityThe Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority

�� The Food ControlThe Food Control

�� The Veterenarian instituteThe Veterenarian institute

�� Just recently: The Coastal authoritiesJust recently: The Coastal authorities

�� The Military intelligence serviceThe Military intelligence service

Means of mass destruction (MMD)Means of mass destruction (MMD)

�� ““Means of mass destruction is a term applied to Means of mass destruction is a term applied to

radiological, biological and chemical substances that can radiological, biological and chemical substances that can

potentially cause injury to persons or loss of human life potentially cause injury to persons or loss of human life

on a on a large scalelarge scale, heavy material damage, and the , heavy material damage, and the

destruction of infrastructure. destruction of infrastructure.

�� In addition, the threat to use as well as the actual use of In addition, the threat to use as well as the actual use of

such means is because of their nature likely to create such means is because of their nature likely to create

great fear and concerngreat fear and concern among the population.among the population.””

CBRNCBRN

�� Chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclearChemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear

�� Chemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear explosivesChemical, biological, radioactive and nuclear explosives

CBRNECBRNE

�� Police:Police: RSC and OnRSC and On--Scene Coordinator.Scene Coordinator.

No CBRN equipmentNo CBRN equipment

�� Ambulance:Ambulance: No CBRN equipment No CBRN equipment –– decontamination u.decontamination u.

Require clean patientsRequire clean patients

�� Fire Brigades:Fire Brigades: Initially OSCInitially OSC

Knowledge and some equipmentKnowledge and some equipment

Lead agency regarding technical handling Lead agency regarding technical handling

�� Civil defence:Civil defence: Decontamination units Decontamination units –– response time response time

(hours)(hours)

Knowledge and some equipment Knowledge and some equipment

Accidents do Accidents do

happen!happen!

�� Chlorine gas Chlorine gas –– attack on a.....attack on a.....

A safe and robust society – where everyone takes responsibility

The likelihood of a catastrophe occurring within the next 5-10 years?

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ThreatsThreats

�� Regular threats Regular threats –– occur often occur often –– the system learns how to the system learns how to

respond respond –– and it is economical feasible to have and it is economical feasible to have

emergency preparedness plans and equipmentemergency preparedness plans and equipment

�� Irregular threats Irregular threats –– one of a kind events. Practically one of a kind events. Practically

impossible to provide a standard response. Unexpected, impossible to provide a standard response. Unexpected,

although they are imaginablealthough they are imaginable

�� Unexampled events Unexampled events –– virtually impossible to imaginevirtually impossible to imagine

One of a kind eventOne of a kind event……....

Unexampled eventsUnexampled events……....

Madrid

�March 11th, 2004

�192 dead,1500+ wounded...

�Ten bombs at four different

places in the same city at the

same time…

London

July 7th, 2005

3 subways

1 bus

52 dead

700 + wounded

Possible situations with extremely low Possible situations with extremely low

probability but tremendous consequencesprobability but tremendous consequences

�� ““Thinking the unthinkableThinking the unthinkable”” –– although there are attacks although there are attacks

and accidents that would be characterised as and accidents that would be characterised as ““unrealisticunrealistic””

�� ““What ifWhat if…….?.?”” –– The will to do intentional harmThe will to do intentional harm

�� These scenarios will never be dimensional for emergency These scenarios will never be dimensional for emergency

preparedness systems preparedness systems –– but can pinpoint weaknesses but can pinpoint weaknesses

and especially the need for coand especially the need for co--operationoperation

The need for quick responseThe need for quick response……..

Immediate response Immediate response –– or or –– pause and assess?pause and assess?

�� Running around as headless chickens?Running around as headless chickens?

�� Or Or –– look like Bambi trapped in look like Bambi trapped in

the headlight?the headlight?

Some scenariosSome scenarios

�� A tool for planning and exercisesA tool for planning and exercises

�� Balance between realistic and imaginativeBalance between realistic and imaginative

�� Must be developed in further detailMust be developed in further detail

Example 1Example 1

�� Radioactive material in combination with a biological Radioactive material in combination with a biological

substancesubstance

How to detect and deal with it?

�Detection

�Perimeter

� Information to the public

�Decontamination

�Clean zones

Example 2Example 2

�� Hazardous goods Hazardous goods –– traffic accident in populated areatraffic accident in populated area

Example 3Example 3

Example 3Example 3

Exercise Oslo 2006Exercise Oslo 2006

More common situationsMore common situations……..

�� Suspicious packages and bagsSuspicious packages and bags

�� Unknown substancesUnknown substances

�� Challenging analysisChallenging analysis

Coming workComing work

�� Evaluate the investments following Evaluate the investments following

September 11September 11thth 20012001

�� Scenario workshopsScenario workshops

�� Develop scenarios in more detailDevelop scenarios in more detail

Assessing the capability and Assessing the capability and

intentions in different groupsintentions in different groups

Abu Hamza

A safe and robust society – where everyone takes responsibility

CivilianCivilian--military comilitary co--operationoperation

Gro Harlem BruntlandGro Harlem Bruntland::

““ We can never avoid the dilemma that all We can never avoid the dilemma that all

our knowledge is of the past, while all our our knowledge is of the past, while all our

decisions are about the futuredecisions are about the future””

•Are we succeeding in thinking the

unthinkable?

•Are the systems robust and versatile enough

to handle CBRN accidents and disasters?

•Should we in the Nordic countries rest assure

that the US and UK will be much more

attractive terrorist targets, also in the future?

•Can we sleep at night?