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Possibility of Synchronizing Possibility of Synchronizing
Multiple Data forMultiple Data for
Monitoring One GoalMonitoring One Goal
By Amara SatharasingeDeputy DirectorDepartment of Census and StatisticsSri Lanka
Sri Lanka is
demarcated into
an administrative
hierarchy of 9
provinces, 25
districts, 325
Divisional
Secretariat (DS)
divisions and
14,009 Grama
Niladhari (GN)
divisions.
Sri Lanka is potentially on tract on most of the available
MDG indicators. Among the key achievements are
access to safe drinking water, equitable primary
education, literacy, child and maternal health. A
significant achievement is that there is no gender
disparity in these achievements.
However, there remain considerable challenges. The
critical challenge is that 23% of Sri Lanka’s
population is still living below the national poverty line.
Table 1: Status of Sri Lanka according to some selected MDG indicators
Value
Indicator No.
Indicator Last decade
This decad
e
Forecast for 2015
Target by
2015
Progress towards target
G1T1I1a Poverty Headcount Ratio (Percentage) 26.1
(1990/91)
22.7 (2002)
19.0 13.1 Off track
G1T1I2 Poverty gap ratio (Percentage) 5.6
(1990/91)
5.1 (2002)
4.56 2.80 Off track
G1T1I3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (Percentage)
8.9 (1990/91
)
7.0 (2002)
4.95 - -
G1T2I4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (Percentage)
37.7 (1993)
29.4 (2000)
11.62 18.9 On track
G1T2I5 Proportion of the population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (Percentage)
50.9 (1990/91
)
51.3 (2002)
51.7 25.5 On track
Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 6 – 10 years (Ratio)
95.7 (1996)
96.3 (2002)
-
100 On track
G2T3I6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 11 – 14 years (Ratio)
93.8 (1996)
96.3 (2002)
- 100 On track
G2T3I7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (Percentage)
68.1 (1990)
95.6 (2002)
- 100 On track
G2T3I8 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds (Percentage) - 95.6
(2001) - 100 On track
G3T4I9 Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Primary (6 -10 yrs.) (Percentage)
94.2 (1996)
94.6 (2002)
- 100 On track
Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Junior secondary (11 – 14 yrs.) (Percentage)
91.2 (1996)
94.8 (2002)
- 100 On track
Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Senior secondary (15 - 19 yrs.) (Percentage)
107.7 (1996)
101.8 (2002)
- 100 On track
Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Tertiary (20 - 24 yrs.) (Percentage)
75.4 (1996)
113.8 (2002)
- 100 Exceeded target
G3T4I10 Ratio of literate women to men, 15-24 years old (Percentage)
- 100.9 (2001)
- 100 Achieved
G3T4I11 Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector (Percentage)
- 32.8
(2001) - 50 Off track
G4T5I13 Under-five mortality rate (Percentage - Expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births)
22.2 (1991)
13.5 (2002)
3.2 8.10 On track
G4T5I14 Infant mortality rate (Percentage - Expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births)
17.7 (1991)
11.2 (2002)
3.5 5.9 On track
G4T5I15 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles (Percentage)
95.5 (1993)
94.2 (2000)
91.4 98.5 On track,
Already high level
G5T6I16 Maternal mortality ratio (Ratio - Deaths per 100,000 live births)
42.3 (1991)
27.5 (2002)
10.0 10.6 On track
G5T6I17 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel (Percentage)
94.1 (1993)
96.0 (2000)
100.0 98.5 On track
Table 1: Status of Sri Lanka according to some selected MDG indicators
Value
Indicator No.
Indicator Last decade
This decad
e
Forecast for 2015
Target by
2015
Progress towards target
G1T1I1a Poverty Headcount Ratio (Percentage) 26.1
(1990/91)
22.7 (2002)
19.0 13.1 Off track
G1T1I2 Poverty gap ratio (Percentage) 5.6
(1990/91)
5.1 (2002)
4.56 2.80 Off track
G1T1I3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (Percentage)
8.9 (1990/91
)
7.0 (2002)
4.95 - -
G1T2I4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (Percentage)
37.7 (1993)
29.4 (2000)
11.62 18.9 On track
G1T2I5 Proportion of the population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (Percentage)
50.9 (1990/91
)
51.3 (2002)
51.7 25.5 On track
Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 6 – 10 years (Ratio)
95.7 (1996)
96.3 (2002)
-
100 On track
G2T3I6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 11 – 14 years (Ratio)
93.8 (1996)
96.3 (2002)
- 100 On track
G2T3I7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (Percentage)
68.1 (1990)
95.6 (2002)
- 100 On track
G2T3I8 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds (Percentage) - 95.6
(2001) - 100 On track
G3T4I9 Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Primary (6 -10 yrs.) (Percentage)
94.2 (1996)
94.6 (2002)
- 100 On track
G6T7I19 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate (Percentage)
5.0 (1993)
5.3 (2000)
- - -
G6T7I19c Contraceptive prevalence rate (Percentage) 66.1
(1993) 70.0
(2000) - - -
G7T9I29 Proportion of the population using solid fuels (Percentage)
- 80.3
(2001) - - Off track
G7T10I30
Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, urban and rural (Percentage)
- 82.0
(2001) - - On track
G7T10I31
Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation, urban and rural (Percentage)
- 67.5
(2001) - - Possibly off track
G7T11I32
Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (Percentage)
- 98.1
(2001) - - On track
G8T16I45
Unemployment rate of young people aged 15 - 24 years, each sex and total (Percentage)
31.6 (1996)
27.9 (2002)
- - -
G8T18I48
Personal computers in use per 100 population (Percentage)
- 3.8
(2004) - -
Achievement very challenging
G8T18I48b
Internet users per 100 population (Percentage) - 2.8
(2004) - -
Achievement very challenging
Table 1: Status of Sri Lanka according to some selected MDG indicators
Value
Indicator No.
Indicator Last decade
This decad
e
Forecast for 2015
Target by
2015
Progress towards target
G1T1I1a Poverty Headcount Ratio (Percentage) 26.1
(1990/91)
22.7 (2002)
19.0 13.1 Off track
G1T1I2 Poverty gap ratio (Percentage) 5.6
(1990/91)
5.1 (2002)
4.56 2.80 Off track
G1T1I3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (Percentage)
8.9 (1990/91
)
7.0 (2002)
4.95 - -
G1T2I4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age (Percentage)
37.7 (1993)
29.4 (2000)
11.62 18.9 On track
G1T2I5 Proportion of the population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (Percentage)
50.9 (1990/91
)
51.3 (2002)
51.7 25.5 On track
Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 6 – 10 years (Ratio)
95.7 (1996)
96.3 (2002)
-
100 On track
G2T3I6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education: 11 – 14 years (Ratio)
93.8 (1996)
96.3 (2002)
- 100 On track
G2T3I7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 (Percentage)
68.1 (1990)
95.6 (2002)
- 100 On track
G2T3I8 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds (Percentage) - 95.6
(2001) - 100 On track
G3T4I9 Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education: Primary (6 -10 yrs.) (Percentage)
94.2 (1996)
94.6 (2002)
- 100 On track
Available from regular stat. activities of DCS (15) New survey for MDG indicators (12)
Expected from the Data Producers’ Working Group (13)
Not possible to prepare (03)
Not applicable (09)
Status of indicators at a glance
Regular SurveysRegular Surveys
Household Income & Expenditure Survey (HIES) Labour Force Survey (LFS) Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Computer Literacy Survey (CLS) New SurveyNew Survey
Survey to capture selected MDG indicators (MDGIS)
Administrative RecordsAdministrative Records
Civil Registration System (CRS)
DCS sources related to MDG indicatorsDCS sources related to MDG indicators
Indicators compiled by data collected from regular surveys No. Indicator Source
48 Personal computers in use per 100 population and Internet users per 100 population (ITU) CLS 13 Under-five mortality rate CRS 14 Infant mortality rate CRS 16 Maternal mortality ratio CRS 4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age DHS 15 Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles DHS 17 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel DHS 19 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate DHS 19c Contraceptive prevalence rate DHS 1 Poverty headcount ratio HIES 2 Poverty gap ratio HIES 3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption HIES 5 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption HIES 11 Share of women in wage employment in the non - agricultural sector LFS 45 Unemployment rate of young people aged 15-24 years , each sex and total LFS
DHS: Demographic and Health Survey, HIES: Household and Income Survey, LFS: Labour Force Survey
Data Gaps and Remedial Action
• Data from outside sourcesData from outside sources
• Data not availableData not available
• Data available with limitations Data available with limitations
Indicators compiled by data collected from special MDG surveys
No. Indicator Source
6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education MDGIS 7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5 MDGIS 8 Literacy rate of 15 - 24 year-olds MDGIS 9 Ratio of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education MDGIS
10 Ratio of literate women to men, 15-24 years old MDGIS 21 Prevalence & death rates associated with malaria MDGIS 22 Proportion of population in malaria-risk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment
measures MDGIS
31 Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation MDGIS 32 Proportion of households with access to secure tenure MDGIS 47 Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population MDGIS
19b Percent of population aged 15-24 yrs. with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS MDGIS 29 Proportion of population using solid fuel MDGIS 30 Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source, urban & rural MDGIS
MGIS: Special Surveys on MDG’s
Indicators compiled with the assistance of Data Producers’ Technical Working Group
No. Indicator Source 6 Net enrolment ratio in primary education DPTWG 7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reached grade 5 DPTWG
9.1 Primary completion rate DPTWG Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education DPTWG
12 Proportion of seats held by women in provincial councils and local govt. authorities DPTWG 13 Under five mortality rate DPTWG 14 Infant mortality rate DPTWG 16 Maternal mortality ratio DPTWG
Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria DPTWG 23 Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis DPTWG 24 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under DOTS DPTWG 25 Proportion of land area covered by forest DPTWG 26 Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area DPTWG 27 Energy use per 1$ GDP DPTWG 28 Carbon dioxide emissions per capita and consumptions depleting CFCs DPTWG 39 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on agricultural products, textiles and clothing from developing
countries DPTWG
41 Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity DPTWG 44 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services DPTWG 46 Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis DPTWG
DPTWG: Data Producers Technical Group
Data not available Three indicators had to be abandoned as it is not possible to collect
the required data from surveys or administrative records.
Indicator No. and Name
18. HIV prevalence among pregnant women aged 15-24 yrs.
19a. Condom use at last high-risk sex
20. Ratio of school attendance of orphans(due to HIV) to school attendance of non-orphans 10-14 yrs.
1. Maps at DS division level – 2002 (An application of Small Area Estimation Technique)
2. Maps at GN division level (compiled based on the analysis measurable characteristics reflecting poverty)
3. Reports based on the analysis of HIES data
Tools for monitoring poverty reduction programmes
a) Head count ratio (Goal 1)
b) Share of poorest quintile in national consumption (Goal 1)
c) Literacy rate of 15 – 24 year-olds (Goal 2)
d) Net enrolment ratio in primary education (Goal 2)
e) Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector
(Goal 3)
f) Ratio of girls to boys in education (Goal 3)
g) Infant mortality rate (Goal 4)
h) Under five mortality rate (Goal 4)
i) Maternal mortality (Goal 5)
j) Proportion of the population using solid fuels (Goal 7)
k) Proportion of households with sustainable access to safe drinking
water (Goal 7)
l) Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation (Goal 7)
Classification of districts by overall status of selected MDG indicators
An index reflecting the overall situation with respect to a set of selected MDG indicators at district level was computed
12 indicators representing all goals but goal 6 were selected for the analysis.
By applying Principal Component Analysis 12 indicators were reduced to an index retaining 80% of the total variation
Districts were classified into 5 groups based on the values of this index using Natural Break method
Districts shaded in red are the most backward in terms of achieving the MDGs
The most deprived districts (most unsatisfactory class) are Rathnapura, Polonnaruwa, Badulla and Anuradhapura
This map will be updated as data become available
Comments/suggestions on this methodology are welcome
A tool to facilitate monitoring progress in achieving MDG’sFindings of an exploratory study
DCS has carried out several activities to disseminate available MDG indicators for Sri Lanka and to bridge data gaps. Some activities are
Developing tools for monitoring impacts of poverty eradication projects
Preparation of two publications
Preparation of a database using DevInfo software
Preparation of the web version of the MDGInfo database, which will be launched shortly
Preparation of GN division boundary maps for data presentation
Conducting two surveys to bridge some data gaps
In 2005, DCS prepared a publication presenting available indicators for monitoring MDG goals.
Preparation of publications
MDGInfo Sri LankaMDGInfo Sri Lanka Millennium Development Goals in Sri Lanka – A Statistical ReviewMillennium Development Goals in Sri Lanka – A Statistical Review
In 2006, DCS prepared a publication presenting the trends and patterns of the available indicators and a user friendly database for monitoring MDG goals.
Preparation of publications
Trends and patterns and whether the targets are likely to be achieved is briefly reviewed in the publication titled “ Millanium Development Goals in Sri Lanka – A Statistical Review”
Preparation of publications
A database titled “MDGINFO – Sri Lanka” was released in 2006.This was prepared using DevInfo software. User friendly tools for storing, retrieving and presenting retrieved data by tables, charts and maps are available in this database.
MDGInfo Sri LankaMDGInfo Sri Lanka
Preparation of databases
Preperation of Preperation of
“MDGInfo” Online “MDGInfo” Online
Database for Database for
Monitoring Monitoring
Millennium Millennium
Development GoalsDevelopment Goals
Provision of information for local level planning poverty eradication projets
Classification of GN Divisions by Unsatisfied Basic Needs
Table 3: Correlation coefficients of Headcount Ratio and indicators selected for the study
Indicator Correlation
coefficient
I1: Percentage of Households not having improved sanitary facilities .461(**)
I2: Percentage of Households using kerosene for lighting .625(**)
I3: Percentage of Households using firewood for cooking .646(**)
I4: Percentage of Housing units without permanent materials for wall .557(**)
I5: Percentage of Housing units without permanent materials for floor .607(**)
I6: Percentage of Housing units without permanent materials for roof .401(**)
I7: Percentage of household heads who have not passed G.C.E. A/L or above .707(**)
I8: Percentage of household heads who are not paid employees .484(**)
I9: Percentage household members aged 20 and above, not passed G.C.E. A/L and
above examinations .530(**)
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Correlations
1 -.627**
.000
248 248
-.627** 1
.000
248 271
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
headcount ratio
UBNI
headcountratio UBNI
Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).**.
Factor extraction: communalities
Communalities
1.000 .553
1.000 .851
1.000 .822
1.000 .452
1.000 .940
1.000 .895
1.000 .776
1.000 .662
1.000 .867
wallper
floorper
roofper
toityper
edualper
gcealper
non_kero
non_firw
emp52pec
Initial Extraction
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Extraction communalities are estimates of the variance in each variable accounted for by the factors (or components) in the factor solution.
Total Variance Explained
4.406 48.958 48.958
1.326 14.736 63.694
1.085 12.052 75.746
.712 7.906 83.652
.482 5.359 89.011
.422 4.692 93.703
.296 3.294 96.997
.192 2.129 99.126
.079 .874 100.000
Component1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total % of Variance Cumulative %
Initial Eigenvalues
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Factor extraction: Total variance explained
The "Total" column gives the amount of variance in the observed variables accounted for by each component or factor.
Rotated Component Matrix a
.836 .320
.762 -.467
.759 .349
.703
.647
.953
.922
.326 .686
.880
floorper
roofper
non_kero
wallper
toityper
edualper
gcealper
non_firw
SMEAN(emp52pec)
1 2 3
Component
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.
Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.
Rotation converged in 4 iterations.a.
This table reports the factor loadings for each variable on the components or factors after rotation.Each number represents the partial correlation between the item and the rotated factor.These correlations can help you formulate an interpretation of the factors or components.
Unsatisfied Basic Needs Index
compute f1 = fac1_1*.65 + fac2_1*.19 + fac3_1*.16.
Natural breaksClasses are based on natural groupings of data values. ArcMap identifies break points by looking for groupings and patterns inherent in the data. The features are divided into classes whose boundaries are set where there are relatively big jumps in the data values.
Badulla district
Gampaha district
Galle district