Positive Energy - WWFassets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/positive_energy_summary_ni_nov_2012.pdf · WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 10 WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 11

2012

REPORTSUMMARY

NI

ConservationClimate Change Sustainability

Positive Energy:how renewable electricity can transform the island of Ireland by 2030~

ContEntSBaCkground to thIS rEPort 5

ExECutIvE Summary Key findings of GL Garrad Hassan report 6Summary of WWF policy recommendations and conclusions 8

ChaPtEr onE: how the scenarios were developed 10Scenarios examined by GL Garrad Hassan 12Other projections for generation capacity 12Security of supply 14The role of interconnection Scenarios A, B and C 16

ChaPtEr two: the benefits of decarbonising electricity 18Learning from others 20The economic benefits of developing a low-carbon economy 20

ChaPtEr thrEE: renewable resource size and generation capacity 26Overview 27Onshore wind 28Offshore wind 29Wave power 30Tidal power – tidal range and tidal stream 31Sustainable bioenergy 34Geothermal 37Hydropower 38Landfill gas 39

kEy fIndIngS of roadmaP 2050 40

gloSSary 41

rEfErEnCES 42

About WWF-UK

WWF was established in 1961 and is at the heart of global efforts to address the world’s most important challenges. We work with communities, businesses and governments in over 100 countries to help people and nature thrive. Together, we’re safeguarding the natural world, tackling climate change and enabling people to use only their fair share of natural resources.

The way energy is produced and used has a massive impact on the world. Energy for heating, electricity, transport and industry accounts for around three quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions. As well as driving climate change, fossil fuels can damage ecosystems, cause air pollution and have serious health impacts. We’re working to change that by engaging with governments, businesses and consumers to create a sustainable, efficient and renewable energy system.

WWF Northern Ireland is a part of WWF-UK and has been working since 1998 with the devolved administration, the civil service, businesses and communities on, among other things, climate change and energy policy, marine conservation, freshwater policy and sustainability issues.

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WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 4 WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 5

This report follows WWF-UK’s report Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform the UK by 20301, published in November 2011.

The WWF-UK report examined how the UK could achieve a secure, sustainable and decarbonised power sector by 2030 by shifting from fossil fuels and nuclear power to an energy-efficient system built around clean and inexhaustible renewable energy.

Though this report had a UK-wide remit, and so covered Northern Ireland, the existence of the Single Electricity Market (SEM), required a more thorough assessment of the potential circumstances relating to electricity generation and consumption in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. WWF Northern Ireland commissioned GL Garrad Hassan to undertake additional modelling to investigate the potential to decarbonise the electricity demand in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by 20302. The GL Garrad Hassan report is the first modelling undertaken that projects the electricity demand in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as far as 2030.

The question that formed the basis of the work commissioned by WWF Northern Ireland is similar to that which formed the basis of WWF-UK’s Positive Energy report, namely: “How could Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland meet electricity demand in 2030 and achieve the maximum possible decarbonisation of the power sector by that same date, without endangering security of supply, or relying on new nuclear capacity or the use of unsustainable biomass?”

WWF believes that we must decarbonise the power sector in an environmentally sustainable way. Taking into consideration the unacceptable risk of a catastrophic accident and the legacy of dangerous radioactive waste, for which there is currently no effective long-term solution, we’re convinced that nuclear power is neither desirable nor necessary to meet our future energy needs. We regard nuclear power as an unsustainable and extremely expensive low-carbon option. WWF Northern Ireland also wanted to assess the potential for decarbonising the electricity sector without excessive use of biomass, as there are concerns in some instances about the sustainability impacts of biomass production on water resources, biodiversity and food security, particularly in developing countries.

BaCkground to thIS rEPort

2030GL Garrad Hassan

investigated the potential to decarbonise electricity

demand in Northern Ireland and the Republic

of Ireland by 2030

There is substantially more renewable capacity available to the island of Ireland than is needed to meet electricity demand but heating and transport fuels will also need to be decarbonised.

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WWF-UK Positive energy summary 2012 page 4


4. Additional demand for electricity is manageable The additional demand for electricity arising from the electrification of the heating and transport sectors is manageable, especially if part of that demand is deferred to outside of peak hours. The additional demand arising from the electrification of transport, in line with Republic of Ireland targets as of January 2012, is less than 2% of predicted demand for 2020. The additional demand from the electrification of heating would amount to roughly 8% of predicted electricity demand in 2020.

5. Decarbonising Ireland’s power sector could maintain security of supply and ensure electricity demands are met In a decarbonised power sector across the island of Ireland, a level of gas-fired generation capacity similar to current levels would be sufficient to maintain security of supply and ensure that electricity demand is met at all times. This is based on a worst-case scenario analysis where a prolonged cold and calm spell during winter, of several consecutive weeks, reduces the production from renewable energy sources over that period. There is the potential, with overall demand reduction, to reduce the gas generation capacity down to 5,400 MW, which is below current levels (5,700 MW), if there is a higher level of interconnection to mainland Europe.

1. By 2030, more than 70% of the projected electricity demand in the SEM could be provided by renewable energy Renewable electricity could provide between 72% and 84% of the projected electricity demand in the SEM by 2030 without compromising security of supply. Bold and stable policies by the administrations in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, including a commitment to renewable energy, will be required to achieve this goal.

2. Potential supply can greatly exceed potential demand The island of Ireland has a significantly larger renewable energy resource available than would be needed to meet the projected annual electricity demand in 2030. The GL Garrad Hassan report reviews estimates of the renewable resource potential, which for both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland by 2030 is between 1,000 and 2,200 TWh/y (1,000,000 and 2,200,000 GWh/y)3. This represents a potential to generate between approximately 21 and 60 times the projected demand for electricity by 2030 from renewables.

3. Increased interconnection has significant benefits Increasing the levels of interconnection would provide additional access to export markets for renewable electricity generated in Northern Ireland and/or the Republic of Ireland which would enable a higher volume of renewable capacity in the SEM. If there were 1,000 MW of interconnection with mainland Europe, the level of gas-fired generation capacity needed on the island could be reduced by 1,000 MW from the anticipated levels in 2030. Interconnection, along with storage and demand side management, has an important role to play in balancing supply and demand with output from baseload and intermittent generation.

ExECutIvE SummaryKey findings of GL Garrad Hassan report


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maxImISE PotEntal dEvEloPmEnt of a low-CarBon EConomy Should BE a PolItICal and EConomIC PrIorIty

rEnEwaBlE SourCES 84% of fInal ElECtrICIty dEmand from rEnEwaBlE SourCES IS aChIEvaBlE

SEt targEtSfIrm EnErgy rEduCtIon targEtS Should BE SEt

In order to maximise this potential, and ensure the shift away from fossil fuels, clear, long-term energy plans and government commitments and polices are needed. The Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland governments should make the development of a low-carbon economy a political and economic priority. A fundamental means of achieving a low-carbon future must be reducing the demand for electricity, and other energy sources.

The Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland governments should set a target for renewables to provide at least 70% of the electricity in Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland by 2030. The research by GL Garrad Hassan has shown that meeting up to 84% of final electricity demand on the island of Ireland from renewable sources by 2030 is achievable. The system operators have confirmed that accommodating up to 75% renewable electricity is possible, though this would require addressing a number of technical challenges.

The Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland governments should set firm targets for the reduction of energy demand in each administration to 2030 and beyond. These targets should be legally binding and set for every five-year period, along the lines of the approach used in the UK of five-year carbon budgets, up to 2050. These targets must be backed up by ambitious policies to drive energy-efficiency improvements across the energy sector in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Increasing the levels of interconnection could facilitate higher levels of renewable generation and potentially reduced gas generation capacity levels. WWF Northern Ireland’s preference would be for renewable generation to replace fossil fuel generation. Considering the potential to reduce fossil fuel capacity and the (four) failures of the Moyle interconnector in the two years up to July 20124, WWF Northern Ireland would recommend the expansion of interconnection routes should be a much higher priority for both administrations.

The Northern Ireland administration should match the target in the Republic of Ireland to have at least 10% of all vehicles electrified by 2020. The GL Garrad Hassan report found that there may be a small but manageable increase of approximately 2% in projected demand by 2020 for electricity in the Republic of Ireland, with the increased electrification of transport.

Summary of WWF Northern Ireland policy recommendations and conclusions

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3

5

Executive summary


on scenarios published by the UK Energy Research Centre In this ambitious scenario, annual electricity demand is 80% of that of the central scenario. The purpose of including this ambitious scenario is to show to what extent aggressive demand reduction actions will reduce the need for electricity generating capacity of all types.

According to the projections by GL Garrad Hassan, by 2030 in the central scenario the electricity demand will be 34,933 GW/y in the Republic of Ireland and 11,147 GWh/y in Northern Ireland, giving a total demand across the SEM of 46,081 GWh/y.

In the ambitious demand scenario, the electricity demand is forecast to be 28,000 GWh/y in the Republic of Ireland and 8,900 GWh/y in Northern Ireland, giving a total demand across the SEM of 36,900 GWh/y.

Table 1.

i Electricity demand is defined in the GH report as “gross final electricity consumption”, based on the methodology outlined in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC), which includes the losses of approximately 8.3% involved in transporting energy from the point of production to the final consumer, referred to as transmission losses, as defined in the SONI 2012-22 All Island Generation Capacity Statement.

GL Garrad Hassan used many of the existing studies and evaluations by government agencies and departments (primarily those from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) and the National Renewable Energy

Action Plan (NREAP) Ireland and NREAP UK, as well as Transmission System Operator (TSO) and other bodies) in order to derive estimates of electricity demandi for the SEM on the island of Ireland for 2030.

However, these existing studies only looked as far as 2020. The 2030 scenarios produced by GL Garrad Hassan in its report are extrapolations of other 2020 scenarios, based on the assumptions made by GL Garrad Hassan, as outlined in Table 1. As WWF Northern Ireland understands it, at the time of writing, this is the first time that projections for electricity demand in 2030 have been made in the context of the SEM. It is noticeable that within the GL Garrad Hassan scenarios, electricity demand increases to at least 2025 and only reduces after this year in the ambitious scenario. Given the cost effectiveness of improving energy efficiency over building additional generation and transmission infrastructure, policies to achive greater demand reduction should play a central role in energy policy. While a growth in the electrification of parts of the transport and heating sectors will lead to additional electricity demand coming from those sectors, WWF Northern Ireland believes that overall demand should start to fall sooner than 2025, as the sooner demand reduces, the easier the transition to a low-carbon economy will be.

GL Garrad Hassan modelled two electricity demand scenarios for the years to 2030. One, the ‘central’ scenario, was based on scenarios produced by official bodies to 2020/2025 and extrapolated to 2030. This scenario assumes an increase in electricity consumption of approximately 15% between 2010 and 2030. The other, the ‘ambitious’ scenario, is based on work previously done by GL Garrad Hassan in the UK, in turn based

2030PolICIES to aChIEvE

grEatEr dEmand rEduCtIon Should

Play a CEntral rolE In EnErgy PolICy

ChaPtEr onE:how thE SCEnarIoS

wErE dEvEloPEd

Electricity demand 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2030 (gwh/y) central ambitious scenario scenario

republic of Ireland 29,511 32,227 33,105 34,007 34,933 28,000

northern Ireland 9,820 10,826 10,928 11,037 11,147 8,900

all Ireland 39,331 43,053 44,033 45,044 46,081 36,900

ProJECtEd ElECtrICIty dEmand SCEnarIoS By garrad haSSan


According to the two system operators SONI/Eirgrid9 overall electricity demand for the island of Ireland in 2010 was 36,316 GWh/y. While there are uncertainties associated with any prediction of demand for any commodity, electricity demand in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and the UK has been rising for many years. The two to three years following the economic downturn in 2008 when the effects of the economic recession and rising energy prices contributed to a temporary drop in demand were an exception to this trend of rising demand. Without policy and/or legislative and/or regulatory intervention from governments and a change in the behaviour of consumers, this trend of rising demand is likely to continue – until problems with supply become more severe and change the dynamics of supply and demand.

The backdrop of rising energy demand contrasts with the EU targets in the Renewable Energy Directive of 2009 (2009/28/EC) of having 20% energy from renewable energy sources, a 20% reduction of primary energy use and a 20% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The UK and Republic of Ireland have signed up to this directive.

The Scottish government has set a target to reduce energy consumption by 12% by 2020 against a baseline averaged over 2005-07, which should result in annual fuel savings worth £325 million10 and the Danish government11 has set a target to reduce gross energy consumption by 12% by 2020 compared to 2006. In addition the Republic of Ireland’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2009-202012 has an energy savings target of 20% by 2020 for the whole economy; and recognising that government must take the lead, a higher target of 33% for the public sector. Accounting for these targets and for the continuing high or rising costs of energy, one could expect a reduction in energy demand to be actively pursued by governments, north and south of the border and beyond. This is why, in addition to the central scenario in the GL Garrad Hassan report, there is an ambitious scenario which involved using only 80% of the electricity in the central scenario.

thE gl garrad haSSan modEllIng

dEmonStratES that It IS PoSSIBlE to

SIgnIfICantly rEduCE thE CarBon IntEnSIty of PowEr gEnEratIon

aCroSS thE ISland of IrEland through

InvEStmEnt In rEnEwaBlE EnErgy

Scenarios examined by GL Garrad HassanCurrent interconnector capacity (as of July 2012) to the Great Britain electricity system is around 500 MW, and the proposed East-West interconnector is also 500 MW in capacity. However, this limit of 1,000 MW of interconnection will limit the potential to export renewable electricity at times when more electricity is produced from renewables than is consumed on the island. The GL Garrad Hassan report assessed other scenarios with higher levels of interconnection and found that greater interconnection capacity would be beneficial in terms of grid balancing and would allow higher total capacities for renewables by providing access to a market to sell excess electricity, and potentially a reduction (of 1,000 MW, to 5,400 MW) in the anticipated level of gas generation capacity, which is below current levels (5,700 MW), if interconnection to mainland Europe is expanded. It should be noted that there is no commitment, at the time of writing, to any investment in the expansion of the interconnection capacity in the short to medium term.

Other projections for generation capacity Over the course of the next 10 years, some existing fossil fuel-based plant capacity will be shut down. For example, 510 MW of conventional plant will be decommissioned from Ballylumford by 2016, though there is no new conventional (fossil-based) generation currently planned for Northern Ireland up to 20215. The System Operator for Northern Ireland (SONI) is assuming that an additional 1,482 MW of renewable capacity will come online in Northern Ireland by 2021, consisting of 1,042 MW onshore wind, 300 MW offshore wind, 50 MW tidal and 90MW of large scale biomass6. However, Belfast West has been identified by the Northern Ireland Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment (DETI) as a potential site for a biomass-fuelled power station up to 300 MW capacity7, so the renewable capacity may well exceed these predictions

In the Republic of Ireland, a total of 802 MW of conventional capacity at Great Island and Tarbert, which burn heavy fuel oil, is due to be decommissioned by the end of 2020, but there are four open cycle gas turbine plants and one combined cycle gas turbine plant, with a combined generation capacity of 808MW due to come online. In addition, two waste-to energy plants which will provide an additional 77MW of capacity are due to come online in the next few years8.

Chapter one

Over the course of the next 10 years, some

existing fossil fuel-based plant capacity will be

shut down


Coincidentally, it is the marine and bioenergy based sources that are among the less developed renewable energy sources on the island of Ireland, and so these same sources are likely to have the greatest potential to expand in the coming years. In addition, it is likely that gas will continue to have a role in energy generation for some years to come and if and when the proposed gas storage facilities near Larne are up and running, this should offer another means of dealing with any prolonged cold spell in winter.

The stress test used in this report is far more strenuous than the one used by DECC in its 2050 Pathway analysis, which is based on five consecutive days with very limited output from wind power.

However, in those critical circumstances, GL Garrad Hassan argued that there are currently three realistic means to provide a secure electricity supply, namely: large energy storage capacity, able to meet a large part of the electricity demand for periods of weeks; interconnection to other electricity systems; and conventional generating capacity.

GL Garrad Hassan’s projections are based on a total level of thermal capacity similar to today’s level. However, with the possibility of some capacity in the older, less efficient power stations closing down, in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, it seems this may be an issue that requires attention. It may be that the expansion of renewable energy, in particular, wind power, will be able to meet the projected demand, given that the potential for wind far exceeds the projected levels of demand, and even replace some gas generation capacity. It may also be that a greater level of decentralised, off-grid electricity, and potentially heat generation from small-scale anaerobic digestion combined heat and power plants for example will help reduce the demands placed on the grid. Similarly, the more efficient use of energy including, for example, having more efficient buildings and using what is currently waste heat through district heating systems and the expansion of the provision of renewable heat could also ameliorate this potential problem.

ii The issue of synchronous and non-synchronous electricity generation relates to the frequency of the electricity produced by a particular source and whether or not it matches, or is synchronous with, the electricity in the grid.

Security of supplyThe issues relating to security of supply operate at a number of levels – from the strategic level of having more than adequate supplies of energy so that demand at a particular point in time or over a period of time, e.g. a year, is always met, to the more specific, often technical issues such as the need to maintain the frequency of the alternating current in the system at 50 hertz to prevent the risk of a sudden loss of power. In its report, GL Garrad Hassan discusses security of supply in terms of the more specific, technical issues rather than the more strategic energy supply questions.

Interestingly, despite the many claims that have often been made about the difficulty accommodating wind power on the grid, according to the transmission system operators, SONI/EirGrid,13 studies have shown that it is possible today to securely operate the power system with up to 50% of generation coming from what is described as non-synchronous sources, essentially high voltage direct current (HVDC) imports, such as those from interconnectors, and wind powerii. In fact these studies show that the power system could be kept secured with up to 75% of non-synchronous generation, though levels above 75% present technical difficulties.

The intermittency of renewable sources, in particular wind power, is another issue that needs to be addressed as the contribution from these sources increases but GL Garrad Hassan found that this intermittency is not a risk to security of supply.

In the context of the GL Garrad Hassan study, it is concluded that the most significant risk to security of supply for northern European countries with high penetration of renewables is an extended period of anticyclonic weather in winter, with low temperatures and little output from wind, wave and hydro generation, lasting for several consecutive weeks. Conditions such as these were prevalent during the winters of 2010 and 2011, though these winters were exceptional.

In all the scenarios in the Garrad Hassan analysis, supply meets demand at all times, even in a worst case scenario, whereby difficult weather conditions affecting the whole of the UK and Ireland would result in very limited output from wind, solar, wave and river hydropower over several consecutive weeks. However, other renewable energy sources, principally marine currents, tidal and bioenergy, and possibly hydropower sources would not be affected by anticyclonic conditions and could be relied upon to continue to provide renewable energy.

Chapter one

In all the scenarios in the Garrad Hassan analysis,

supply meets demand at all times, even in a worst case scenario,

whereby difficult weather conditions would result in

very limited output from wind, solar, wave and

river hydropower


In scenario B, the percentage of renewables as a fraction of demand is higher – 78% in the central demand scenario and 84% in the ambitious demand scenario. The report does describe much higher levels of interconnection – of up to 8,000 or 9,000 MW – as feasible, though one of the main influences in deciding the likely level of interconnection is the price of the electricity produced on the island of Ireland as compared to that produced in Great Britain.

Scenario C Scenario C deals with an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection from the island of Ireland to continental Europe, which would be substantially longer and therefore substantially more expensive than a direct connection to Great Britain. The report found that the renewable generation capacity would be likely to increase by an amount equal to the increase in interconnection capacity, with onshore wind the most likely source of this expanded capacity. However, this level of interconnection to continental Europe should have greater benefits in terms of security of supply during critical periods because it is unlikely that the anticyclonic conditions during winter, which would create the worst case scenario of critical supply periods, would cover all of Europe, and because the generation mix in continental Europe is not so dominated by wind as it is assumed to be for Great Britain. In scenario C, the percentage of renewables as a fraction of demand is similar to that in scenario B – 78% in the central demand scenario and 84% in the ambitious demand scenario. According to GL Garrad Hassan, the conditions in scenario C also mean that the gas generation capacity could be reduced by 1,000 MW.

It seems clear therefore that a greater level of interconnection, beyond the 1,000 MW that is currently planned, will facilitate the potential export of electricity, especially that generated from renewable sources, from the single market and could make a contribution to increased security of supply, including during times of critical supply. While the winters of 2010 and 2011 were exceptional, WWF Northern Ireland believes that the potential recurrence of such circumstances makes a strong case for both administrations to develop a long-term energy strategy to plan how our energy needs will be met in the longer term.

thErE IS a Strong CaSE to dEvEloP a StratEgy to Plan

how our EnErgy nEEdS wIll BE mEt

In thE long tErm

The role of interconnectionThere is substantially more renewable capacity available to the island of Ireland than is needed to meet electricity demand. GL Garrad Hassan’s analysis examined the likely impact of a range of levels of interconnection capacity. Scenario A was based on having approximately 1,000 MW of interconnection capacity. This total of 1,000 MW is the expected interconnection capacity that will be available when the Republic of Ireland–Wales interconnector is finished. Scenario B was based on having an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection capacity with Great Britain, above and beyond the first scenario, a total of 2,000 MW capacity. Scenario C was based on having an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection capacity, but with continental Europe, most likely France and Spain, above and beyond the first scenario, a total of 2,000 MW capacity.

Scenario A In scenario A, the level of interconnection was regarded as, in effect, likely to limit the potential growth of renewable energy sources because in cases where the levels of renewable electricity produced exceed the demand, interconnection will be required in order to facilitate the export of the available excess. If the level of interconnection is not available to facilitate such export then any excess production from renewable energy sources will have to be curtailed – i.e. stopped or shut down – because of the technical requirements of the grid. In scenario A, the percentage of renewables as a fraction of demand ranges from 72% in the central demand scenario to 77% in the ambitious demand scenario.

Scenario B In scenario B, an additional 1,000 MW of interconnection from Ireland to Great Britain is assumed to enable the renewable generation capacity on the island of Ireland to increase by 1,000 MW on the basis that this additional level of interconnection will allow purchasers to be found for additional production. However, this is subject to weather conditions and economic conditions across the island being similar to those in Great Britain. The report assumes that, if the renewable generation capacity does increase by an amount equal to the increase in interconnection capacity, it will be onshore wind that provides the increased capacity, as that is the greatest available resource.

Chapter one


Comprehensive analyses by PricewaterhouseCoopers19, the European Climate Foundation (ECF)20 and WWF International21 have shown that a 100% renewable energy future is achievable. The ECF report found that the costs of doing so are comparable to business as usual and that: “Nuclear and/or coal-with-CCS plants are not essential to decarbonise power while safeguarding system reliability.”

The Energy Report: 100% renewable energy by 2050, WWF’s research into a 100% renewable future, found that not only could the world be supplied by renewable energy, including those who currently do not have reliable access to primary energy, but also: “By 2050, we save nearly €4 trillion per year through energy efficiency and reducing costs.”

The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) has recommended decarbonising the electricity supply system from the current level of carbon intensity of approximately 500 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour (gCO2/kWh) to 50gCO2/kWh22, and the requirement for ‘maximum possible decarbonisation of the power sector’ is interpreted in this study as achieving that level of carbon intensity – i.e. 50gCO2/kWh. This is assumed to be on an ‘average year’ basis – i.e. calculated over a year without extreme events. That is the basis of the decarbonisation target in the GL Garrad Hassan report.

Lord Whitty’s 2012 independent review of energy policy in Northern Ireland23 recommended among other things, that: “The electricity network should be modernised and decarbonised as far as practicable using renewable sources in Ireland, supplemented by increasingly low carbon energy imported from GB and ROI via the interconnectors”, and: “Substantial decarbonisation by 2030 of the energy system in NI in both supply and use on track for near complete decarbonisation by 2050.”

A key facet of decarbonisation is setting the right policy. A 2011 report by the London School of Economics24 concluded that: “credible long-term policy signals could leverage finance and unlock private investment in renewable energy, smart networks and communities, energy efficiency and low carbon vehicles on a great scale”.

The report went on to argue that as regards investment in low-carbon technologies: “The issue is a lack of confidence to invest rather than a lack of liquidity.”

thErE arE many argumEntS for

dECarBonISIng our EnErgy SuPPly, at a rangE of lEvElS

and aCroSS a rangE of SECtorS

WWF Northern Ireland believes that energy has the potential to be the single most important influence on economic development in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, in the medium to long term. As well as environmental, social and moral issues, there are other compelling reasons why Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland need to make the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Tackling climate change must be one of the primary drivers for decarbonisation, and energy policy is also key to tackling climate change as more than 75% of all man-made emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) come from burning fossil fuels14 – the remainder come from deforestation and cement manufacture.

Northern Ireland is overly reliant on imported fossil fuels, which provide approximately 99% of its primary energy needs15, and which cost approximately £2.3 billion a year. The Republic of Ireland is only slightly less reliant on imports, with approximately 96% of its energy needs met from imported fossil fuels, at a cost of €6 billion a year and less than 3% of its energy generated from renewables16.

The International Energy Agency has made it clear that current energy consumption trends are unsustainable, and in the 2008 World Energy Outlook17 argued: “The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable – environmentally, economically and socially. But that can – and must – be altered; there’s still time to change the road we’re on.”

According to the UNEP Green Economy Report (GER)18, investing just 2% of GDP in a green transformation of (ten) key sectors can kick start a transition towards a low-carbon, resource-efficient economy, and: “Greening the economy not only generates growth and in particular gains in natural capital, but it also produces a higher growth in GDP and GDP per capita. Under the GER modelling exercise, a green investment scenario achieves higher economic growth rates than a business as usual scenario within 5-10 years.”

ChaPtEr two:thE BEnEfItS of

dECarBonISIngElECtrICIty

99%northErn IrEland

rElIES on ImPortEd foSSIl fuElS to ProvIdE 99% of

ItS PrImary EnErgy nEEdS


there was £180m invested and 767 jobs created in renewables in the 2011-12 financial year.31

A 2010 report on offshore renewable energy32 estimated the job creation potential for the UK as ranging from 70,000 (lowest scenario where offshore renewables meet 50% of UK electricity demand) to around 430,000 jobs (highest scenario where offshore renewables meet 50% of UK electricity demand and export an amount of electricity equivalent to 25% of the EU’s electricity demand).

Though wind power will most likely continue to be the dominant renewable energy source in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, in the short to medium term at least, tackling climate change needs a multi-faceted approach and other options such as bioenergy and marine renewables should have a role to play. According to the Carbon Trust, the UK’s offshore wind and wave power industry could generate up to £70 billion for the economy and create almost 250,000 jobs33. A 2009 report by IWEA and Deloitte34 found that, in order to provide the 7,800 MW of wind power needed on the island of Ireland to meet the current renewable energy targets, the Irish wind energy sector will involve approximately €14.75 billion of investment, of which €5.1 billion will be retained in both economies, by 2020 (€4.3 billion in ROI and €786 million in NI).

The Carbon Trust35 found that, to have 15% of the UK’s energy from renewables by 2020, as per the EU Renewable Energy Package of 2009, there is the potential to create more than half a million jobs (564,000) in renewables in the UK with between 8,470 and 33,124 jobs, in a sector that could be worth almost £1 billion (£989m) in Northern Ireland alone.

Other countries are also forging ahead and leading the creation of low-carbon jobs. For example, despite the recent economic crisis, the contribution from renewables in Germany has increased, and as a result of rising investment, which reached a total of €17.7 billion, employment in the sector grew. As of 2009, more than 300,000 people were employed in the renewable energy sector in Germany (compared to 12,000 in the UK in 2008)36. The German government already has a target to cut CO2 emissions by 40% against 1990 levels by 2020, which it estimates will generate savings of €5bn in private households and industry by 2020, and that on average, every tonne of CO2 saved has a saving effect of €2637. When Germany adopted the second package implementing the integrated energy and climate programme, federal environment minister Sigmar Gabriel38 said it

250,000According to the Carbon Trust, the UK’s offshore

wind and wave power industry could generate

up to £70 billion for the economy and create

almost 250,000 jobs .

A clear, integrated policy on, and commitment to, expanding the provision of energy from renewable sources across the SEM would provide the sort of long-term certainty that investors seek. Equally, the lack of such polices is likely to mean low-carbon investment ends up in an administration more favourably disposed to developing a low-carbon economy.

Learning from others Other countries have realised the benefits of following a low-carbon path. In Germany, for example, in 2009 more than 10% of all energy and more than 16% of electricity was generated from renewables25. Germany now obtains more energy from renewable sources than it does from nuclear power, hard coal or natural gas26 and by 2007, renewable energy sources in Germany generated more electricity than the entire UK nuclear fleet27. In March 2012, chancellor Angela Merkel announced plans for Germany to replace 17 nuclear reactors that supplied about a fifth of Germany’s electricity with renewables such as solar and wind. The German authorities anticipate this programme will cost €200 billion and require the production of 25,000 MW of wind power, which will in turn require the installation of 5,000 wind turbines28 .

The economic benefits of developing a low-carbon economy The importance of establishing appropriate (supportive) policy in developing a low-carbon economy has been previously referred to. For example, according to Pew29, in 2011, the United States attracted $48.1 billion of investment in clean energy, the highest level within the G20. However, the Pew analysis says that, in relation to the United States: “Significant policy uncertainty also undermines investor confidence in 2012.”

The influence of policy is also likely to be a factor in the difference between the investment rates reported by Pew in Germany, which attracted $30.6 billion of investment in clean energy in 2011, and the UK which attracted $9.4 billion in the same year.

A 2009 report into the low-carbon economy by the UK Department for Business Innovation and Skills30, which merged with Defra in 2008 to form the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), characterised the whole Northern Ireland low-carbon and environmental goods and services sector as being worth approximately £3.3 billion, across 1,600 companies and employing 31,000 people, in 2007. According to DECC, in Northern Ireland

Chapter two

gErmany now oBtaInS morE EnErgy from

rEnEwaBlE SourCES than It

doES from nuClEar PowEr, Coal or

natural gaS


recent years in the demand for, and the price of, oil and gas – and this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

WWF Northern Ireland believes that with the continued influence of these longer term trends and a growing understanding of the need for, and value of, a shift in policy towards the development of a low-carbon economy, there is the possibility that even a relatively small shortfall in the supply of oil and/or gas could tip the balance towards more decarbonisation, most likely prompted by the negative economic consequences of such a shortfall.

It seems clear that in the medium to long term, the energy future will be radically different, on a local and global scale. Exactly when that transformation will start and how quickly it will happen is not clear, but a major issue for WWF Northern Ireland is that Northern Ireland, like the Republic of Ireland, needs to develop a long-term energy strategy to manage that transition rapidly and smoothly.

Accounting for the many significant economic benefits from developing a more sustainable energy system, of which decarbonising the electricity supply across the energy sector is just one aspect, WWF Northern Ireland hopes this report will provide a useful contribution to the debate about how such decarbonisation can and will be achieved.

iii The Crown Estate, Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Pathways Study, May 2012: http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/305094/Offshore%20wind%20cost%20reduction%20pathways%20study.pdf

wwf northErn IrEland BElIEvES

that northErn IrEland and thE

rEPuBlIC of IrEland nEEd to makE

thE tranSItIon to a low-CarBon

EConomy a PolItICal and

EConomIC PrIorIty

“protects the climate, lowers energy costs for our citizens and will create more than 500,000 additional jobs by 2020”.

It seems unlikely that Germany would pursue a strong renewables policy if it was not going to generate a long-term competitive advantage.

The need to decouple economic growth from energy demand has often been stated, and it can be done. As outlined in the Danish government’s Energy Strategy 205039, the Danish economy has grown by 78% since 1980 while energy consumption has remained more or less constant, and greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced. The Danish Energy Strategy 2050 is fully costed and “The government’s goal of making Denmark independent of fossil fuels by 2050 is based on the realisation that the world is facing a new era for energy policy.”

Costs were not explored in the GL Garrad Hassan report in any great detail, not least because the economic viability of a particular energy source can change very rapidly as the price of oil and gas, in particular, fluctuates and for the most part rises, but also because there is a lot of information already available on the relative costs of various renewable energy sources. For example, the price of solar modules fell by 50% in 2011 alone, with McKenzie predicting that solar PV will be at grid parity with other technologies globally before 2020. The cost of onshore wind has also fallen dramatically, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicting that onshore wind will very shortly be fully cost competitive with gas power generation and is in fact already cost competitive with gas if one takes into account the price of carbon.

The outlook of future cost trends is also positive for less mature forms of renewable energy technologies such as offshore wind. The Crown Estate Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Pathways Studyiii shows that there are several pathways that could result in the costs of offshore wind going down to £100/MW or less by 2020, with further substantial cost reductions possible in the 2020s. The report makes clear that long-term term predictability in terms of minimum volumes of deployment and financial support hold the key to delivering these costs reductions.

In addition, the cost of most renewable technologies is falling, particularly the currently less mature technologies such as offshore wind. Meanwhile, there has been a clear, steadily upward trend in

Chapter two

While there has been a substantial increase

in fossil fuel prices, especially gas, in recent

years, the cost of the more mature forms

of renewable energy technologies is falling.

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Northern Ireland is playing a very prominent, if not a leading, role in the sphere of tidal stream power. This is primarily due to the installation of the SeaGen turbine in Strangford Lough, which was the first full-scale tidal steam turbine to be connected to the grid to produce electricity for consumption. SeaGen delivered its full rated power of 1.2 MW for the first time on 18 December 2008 – believed to be the first time a ‘wet renewable energy system’ has delivered in excess of 1MW: enough to supply approximately 1,000 homes.

lEadIng By ExamPlE~


OverviewThere are many factors that will influence the development of renewable energy sources in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, including national and European policies, politics and economics, fossil fuel price and availability, the size and rate of investment from public and private sectors in low-carbon technologies, weather patterns and climate change, and energy consumption patterns. The Garrad Hassan report uses a figure of 116,000 GWh/y and capacity of 36GW as the assumed level of renewable energy production in 2030.

However, this is not the upper limit of the potential energy production from renewables. The maximum cumulative practical potential for each resource is approximately 2,200 TWh/y, almost 60 times the estimated demand in the ambitious scenario (of 36,900 GWh/y) for 2030, with an installed capacity of approximately 801 GW. While some of the renewable energy resource might be challenging to exploit, it is clear that the resource is considerably greater than the projected electricity demand in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Figure 1. Estimated capacity

of renewable energy sources

compared to projected demand

in 2030

2030thE PotEntIal

for rEnEwaBlE EnErgy In northErn

IrEland and thE rEPuBlIC of IrEland

IS EnormouS and IS SIgnIfICantly

grEatEr than thE lIkEly lEvElS

of ElECtrICIty dEmand By 2030

GL Garrad Hassan attempted to quantify the potential of some renewable energy sources in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and the surrounding waters. This evaluation included onshore and offshore wind, wave, tidal power, sustainable biomass, geothermal, hydropower sources, and landfill gas – though landfill gas is a by-product rather than a truly renewable energy source.

The potential for photovoltaic (PV) or solar cells was not included as it is anticipated that PV is unlikely to be a major energy source between now and 2030. Given the rapidly falling cost of PV, this technology may prove to have a significant role in the energy mix in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. However, PV output is at its lowest in winter, when the demand is at its highest, and consequently GL Garrad Hassan’s evaluation is based on PV not playing a significant role.

The potential for each deployment of each generation source depends on many variables. For example, for onshore wind, planning considerations can be a major influence on deployment rates. For offshore wind the cost reduction trajectory is dependent on variables such as technology maturity, infrastructure, risk and policy certainty. Variables such as size (capacity) of turbine, the depth of water in which the turbines are sited, distance from the shore, the spacing required between turbines, and other complimentary or potentially competing demands on the marine environment, including conservation, fishing, shipping and communications and government policy can all influence the total cost of the development of an offshore wind farm. Perceived reluctance to expand onshore wind is a key factor driving the growth in offshore wind farms.

ChaPtEr thrEE:rEnEwaBlE

rESourCE SIzE and gEnEratIon

CaPaCIty

Type of electricity production(High)

Central demand scenario 2030

Ambitious demand scenario 2030

Type of electricity production(Low)

2,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000

500,0000

Hydro Tidal Wave O shore wind Onshore wind

Sum of GWh/y

Type of electricity


and more than 50 times the demand in the ambitious scenario. There will be certain constraints, including physical and economic constraints, that are likely to prevent the full exploitation of the practical resource, but the main point is that the wind resource available is many times the size of the projected demand. Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland currently have a combined capacity of 1.7 GW42.

Offshore wind There are a range of factors that influence the development of offshore wind, not least the balance between the development of wind power on land or at sea, which include water depth, turbine size and spacing, and minimum distance from the shore. The SEAI/IMDO43 projections of an installed capacity of between 13 and 16.5 GW are based on the assumption that 3MW turbines will be used with a 500m spacing throughout the resource area and that the turbines will be located in water depths of less than 20m, situated between 2km and 10km offshore from the coast, producing between 48.7 and 55.55 TWh/year. Under equivalent assumptions, the resource for Northern Ireland ranges from 0.10 TWh/y to 6.53 TWh/y, which will require an installed capacity ranging from 26.5 MW to 1,725 MW. However, GL Garrad Hassan expanded its assessment of the potential of offshore wind power across the entire exclusive economic zone (up to 200 nautical miles from the coast) allowing for development in water depths of up to 50m (as compared to the 20m depth the SEAI used) and found the practical resource to be 75 GW of capacity producing 283,000 GWh/y, which is over six times the estimated demand in the central demand scenario, and over seven times the demand in the ambitious scenario, with the major resource off the west coast of Ireland.

Figure 4. Offshore wind

electricity generation

potential compared to projected

demand 2030 Ambitious demand scenario 2030

Centraldemand scenario 2030

Oshore wind generation (high)

Oshorewind generation (low)

Oshore wind generation across EEZ (GHassessment)

250,000200,000150,000100,000

50,0000

300,000

Electricity demand Electricity production

Sum of GWh/y

Onshore wind According to SEAI41, the onshore wind practical resource (the resource limited by physical or other incompatibilities) based on 3MW turbines is 360 GW capacity, which should produce 947,969 GWh/y – more than 20 times the estimated central demand of 46,000 GWh/y for the whole of the island. If the capacity of the wind turbines was 7 MW, the practical resource would be around double that for 3MW turbines, at 724 MW producing 1,902,023 GWh/y, more than 40 times the estimated demand in the central scenario

Chapter three

Figure 3. Onshore wind



demand 2030

Electricity demand



Onshore wind generation 3MW Turbines

Onshore wind generation 7MW Turbines

1,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,000

0

1,200,000

Electricity production

1,800,0001,600,0001,400,000

2,000,000Sum of GWh/y

Figure 2.40

Wind resources at 50 metres above ground level for

five different topographic

conditions

500 km

Sheltered terrain open plain at sea coast open sea hills and ridgesms -1 wm -2 ms -1 wm -2 ms -1 wm -2 ms -1 wm -2 ms -1 wm -2

> 60 > 250 > 7.5 > 500 > 8.5 > 700 > 9.0 > 800 > 11.5 > 1.8005.0-6.0 150-250 6.5-7.5 300-500 7.0-8.5 400-700 8.0-9.0 600-800 10.0-11.5 1200-18004.5-5.5 100-150 5.5-6.5 200-300 6.0-7.0 250-400 7.0-8.0 400-600 8.5-10.0 700-12003.5-4.5 50-100 4.5-5.5 100-200 5.0-6.0 150-250 5.5-7.0 200-400 7.0-8.5 400-700< 3.5 < 50 < 4.5 < 100 < 5.0 < 150 < 5.5 < 200 < 7.0 < 400


Tidal power – tidal range and tidal stream Tidal range power refers to the energy generated when normal tidal flow is impeded (for example, by the construction of a barrage) until there is a difference in the height of the water on the two sides of the barrier, at which time the water is allowed to flow through turbines. The world’s first tidal range power station was built in 1966 at La Rance in Brittany, France and has a capacity of 240 MW45. Other sites have been developed in locations including South Korea and Canada. Tidal power harnesses the twice daily flow of the tides and as such is predictable but not constant, and is unlikely to be significantly affected by weather conditions.

There have been numerous proposals over the years to develop a tidal power scheme within the Severn Estuary in England. The large tidal range of the Severn, of approximately 14m, is the main reason why it is of interest to potential renewable electricity generators and ecologists alike, and results in the estuary having one of the most extensive intertidal wildlife habitats in the UK and Europe. The Severn Estuary is a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) designated under the EU Habitats Directive, a Special Protection Area (SPA) designated under the EU Wild Birds Directive and a Ramsar wetland. There are also many national designations of Sites of Special Scientific Interest within the estuary and surrounding areas.

In 2008, the UK government, working closely with the Welsh Assembly Government and the South West Regional Development Agency, embarked on a two-year feasibility study to investigate whether there was a strategic case to harness the tidal range energy in the Severn Estuary. WWF-UK engaged in the study because it was concerned that it would prioritise energy output over environmental and economic impacts. On conclusion of the study, the government decided that there was not a strategic case to bring forward a Severn tidal power scheme in the immediate term because the costs and risks to the taxpayer and energy consumer would be excessive compared to other low-carbon energy options. Taking into account the findings of the study, WWF-UK has come to the conclusion that there is no clear option at this time that would allow for the tidal range energy from the Severn Estuary to be harnessed in an environmentally sustainable way. In particular, we would not be able to support development of the Cardiff Weston Barrage (using the design proposed and assessed within the feasibility study) in the Severn Estuary. WWF-UK is supportive of research into other ways of exploiting the power of the Severn in a way that is more environmentally sustainable.

240 mwThe world’s first tidal

range power station was built in 1966 at La Rance

in Brittany, France and has a capacity of 240 MW

Chapter three

Wave power Wave power refers to the energy generated by the motions of the waves. There are a number of different options, including: the Pelamis system, based in Scotland; Wave Bob, which has its headquarters in Ireland; Wavegen, which uses the Limpet system designed by researchers at Queens University Belfast (QUB) to generate power off the coast of the Isle of Islay; and Aquamarine Power, which uses the Oyster system also designed by QUB to generate power off the coast of Orkney. Irish-based research and expertise has played a significant role in the development of wave power and illustrates the potential opportunities that could be offered by investing in renewable technologies.

In 2009, SEAI44 estimated the potential installed capacity for wave power at over 1,400 MW or 1.4 GW for 2020. This figure was within the range of a previous study by the Electricity Supply Board Ireland, which estimated the capacity in Irish waters (ROI and NI) at between 180 MW and 2,770 MW, or 0.18 and 2.77 GW, with an estimated annual production of 1,200-24,000 GWh/y (between 2% and 52% of the projected demand under the central scenario and 2% to 60% of the projected demand under the ambitious scenario).

Figure 5. Wave power electricicty generation


demand 2030



Wave power potential (high)

Wave power potential (low)

25,00020,00015,00010,000

5,0000

30,000

40,00035,000

45,00050,000


Sum of GWh/y


In this regard, the aims and objectives of the MSFD are similar to those of the UK Marine Act 2009 and the proposed Northern Ireland Marine Bill, which is due to be enacted by spring 2013. There are many steps on the way to the introduction of new legislation and at the time of writing the Northern Ireland Marine Bill had only taken some, but not all, of the legal steps necessary before being enacted. The Northern Ireland Marine Bill should bring Northern Ireland up to speed with the rest of the UK, allowing for marine spatial planning to help better manage the sustainable use of the sea, protection and enhancement of important marine species and habitats through the designation of marine conservation zones, and streamlining of licensing for marine activities including offshore energy projects.

In summary, similar marine based legislation and policies are being developed for the waters all around the island, under both jurisdictions, and these new polices will need to be adhered to and factored in to any plans for the development of marine based renewable energy sources in future.

Figure 6. Tidal power

electricity generation potential

compared to projected demand

2030



Tidal power

25,00020,00015,00010,000

5,0000

30,000

40,00035,000

45,00050,000


Sum of GWh/y

Northern Ireland is playing a very prominent, if not a leading, role in the sphere of tidal stream power. This is primarily due to the installation of the SeaGen turbine in Strangford Lough, which was the first full-scale tidal steam turbine to be connected to the grid to produce electricity for consumption. Strangford Lough is one of the most designated marine sites in the UK and is a SAC, designated under the Habitats Directive, an SPA designated under the Wild Birds Directive, and a Ramsar wetland. It also contains a number of Areas of Special Scientific Interest (ASSIs). Consequently, an extensive environmental assessment and monitoring programme was established to assess the potential impact of the turbine on the protected species and habitats over time. In summary, the assessment found that there would be no significant negative impact from the installation and operation of the turbine. Though there were some initial problems, SeaGen delivered its full rated power of 1.2 MW for the first time on 18 December 200846 – believed to be the first time a ‘wet renewable energy system’ has delivered in excess of 1 MW: enough to supply approximately 1,000 homes.

The SEAI/Marine Institute projections47 advise that there is a practical tidal stream resource of 750 MW producing 2,633 GWh/year (around 5% of the projected demand under the central scenario and around 7% of the projected demand under ambitious scenario). These projections are based on the assumption that installations will be located in a water depth of between 10m and 40m, within territorial waters, i.e. up to 12 nautical miles from shore. The marine environment is a challenging one and the development of second or third generation technologies, better able to cope with the harsh conditions in the marine environment, may be required before some of the more challenging locations can be exploited. It may be that the potential for tidal power increases as technological improvements allow the expansion of tidal power into areas that may not be exploited by the technologies currently available.

However, there are many factors influencing the development of marine based renewables, including marine based legislation. In addition to the proposed introduction of a Northern Ireland Marine Bill in 2012, the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) (Directive 2008/56/EC), which is based on promoting sustainable use of the seas and conserving marine ecosystems, and aims to achieve good environmental status of our seas by 2020, applies to both the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

Chapter three


A report by the Joint Committee on Communications, Energy and Natural Resources51 on the development of AD in the Republic of Ireland proposed that one thousand 380 kW AD plants be built, which would produce 380 MW of electricity, equivalent to about 12% of the National Grid daily usage. The report did not explore the potential impact of heat production from AD.

While WWF Northern Ireland recognises the potential for renewable bioenergy sources to be grown locally, it believes the broader impact of their production must be considered and acceptable levels of social and environmental performance in the production of bioenergy among supply chain actors, from growers to end users, should be factored in. For example, there is a risk, especially on a small island, that a biofuel processing plant would create a market demand that cannot be met locally. This would in turn risk creating a demand for importing biofuels that may not have been produced sustainably, and this could have significant, long-term detrimental consequences for people and nature, as exemplified by the biofuels produced from the palm oil plantations that have been planted on former rainforest in Indonesia.

In relation to sustainable biomass, in WWF’s view, the following environmental principles need to be addressed by any standard as a minimum both for crops produced in Northern Ireland and as a requirement for imported fuel sources:

• not damage high conservation value habitats and biodiversity

• not degrade soil quality

• not adversely impact the quantity and quality of freshwater resources

• not lead to damaging release of toxic compounds into the environment

• lead to substantially positive lifecycle greenhouse gas balances compared to fossil fuel equivalent.

As such, WWF Northern Ireland would prefer local native species to be used in bioenergy production, such as short rotation coppice using willow.

iv It is likely that there will be fractions of MSW that can and should be recycled or reused or composted, and if those fractions were recycled, reused and composted that would leave a residual fraction for which the only remaining options are landfill or thermal treatment. Only in those circumstances would WWF accept the thermal treatment of waste to produce energy, and then only in a combined heat and power plant that uses the heat produced in the course of the generation of electricity. However, since Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are quite far from that point, WWF would not support the incineration of MSW at this juncture.

Sustainable bioenergy WWF regards energy derived from organic-based materials, including what are currently referred to as farming or forestry ‘wastes’ such as manures and forestry brash (off-cuts), as sustainable and/or renewable. We do not regard energy from municipal solid waste (MSW) as sustainableiv. In order to ensure consistency throughout the UK, DETI will apply biomass sustainability criteria. DETI has set the minimum greenhouse gas emissions savings threshold at 60% as compared to the 35% minimum GHG savings recommended by the EU Commission for power generating plants of 1MW and above from 2013.

The mild, wet climate means that the potential for biomass on the island of Ireland is the highest in Europe, at 10 oven-dried tonnes per hectare48.

One area that offers an opportunity for greater energy production across the island is the anaerobic digestion (AD) of farm and animal wastes. According to AFBI, the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, the 9.7 million tonnes of manure generated annually by housed livestock has the potential to produce 73 MW of electricity – 10% of Northern Ireland’s demand – and 60 MW of heat 50. Ideally, energy should be generated from AD in combined heat and power plants, so that both the heat and electricity are used.

Figure 7. Biomass potential

across Europe

Chapter three

onE arEa that offErS an

oPPortunIty for grEatEr EnErgy

ProduCtIon aCroSS thE ISland IS

thE anaEroBIC dIgEStIon of farm and anImal waStE

thE mIld, wEt ClImatE mEanS

that thE PotEntIal for BIomaSS on thE

ISland of IrEland IS thE hIghESt In

EuroPE, at 10 ovEn-drIEd tonnES

PEr hECtarE

Ireland has the highest potential annual yield of wood in Europe (figures are based on Paterson’s Climatic Index m3/ha). Source: forest resources in Europe 1950-1990, 1994.

10.0 8.7

5.3 4.33.8

5.86.1 6.16.8

6.4

7.1 4.8

7.26.2

6.2

5.25.3

6.2


GeothermalGeothermal power takes many forms – from the ground source heat pump (GSHP) where water is pumped through pipes a matter of metres below the surface and is heated by the soil by a few degrees centigrade, to operations that work at depths of up to several kilometres and which involve the heating of water by rocks to temperatures of up to 250oC – this is sometimes referred to as the hot dry rock system. The shallow GSHP system could be used almost anywhere, but the potential for the deeper system, as used in and around Paris and Munich, will be more limited in scope.

In the Republic of Ireland, north Leinster and the area around Mallow in Cork have been identified as the areas of most potential, while in Northern Ireland the areas with greatest potential are in and around Larne and Ballymoney.

No analysis was found which quantified the geothermal energy resource for electricity generation. However, a geothermal resource map has been produced by SEAI which indicates that significant geothermal sources exist with the potential for commercial development. Also, a study by Action Renewables has shown that geothermal applications may be possible in Northern Ireland, though the study suggests it may be better used directly for heating, rather than for electricity generation.

However, it remains unclear if and how the deeper hot dry rock-based geothermal power will develop across the island as the policy and regulatory framework is seen by stakeholders working in geothermal power as a key area which could impede or facilitate its development in the future, and at this point in time it is very difficult to predict how this may change.

Following a consultation with the Northern Ireland Authority for Utility Regulation (UREGNI), Belfast West has been identified as a potential site for a biomass-fuelled electricity generation station of up to 300MW capacity52, so there may well be a significant expansion of the contribution from biomass in Northern Ireland in the short term. In the medium to longer term, there does not appear to be any strategic planning for an expansion of energy production from biomass, and any expansion is more likely to be small to medium scale on-farm development.

While bioenergy is predominantly grown from land-based cultivation (90% of the world’s biofuel production is currently bioethanol, made largely from sugar cane and maize, with the remaining 10% coming from plant oils such as rapeseed, soya and palm)53, the potential to produce biofuels and other fuels, namely methane and ethanol, from marine algae was investigated by the Biomara project, involving partners from Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and Scotland. Among other things this research aimed to produce biodiesel from sustainably produced high-oil-yielding microalgae. It appears there is potential for producing biomass on land and sea.

Figure 8. Sustainable

bioenergy electricity generation potential

compared to demand in 2030

Chapter three



Sustainable bioenergy

25,00020,00015,00010,000

5,0000

30,000

40,00035,000

45,00050,000


Sum of GWh/y


Landfill gas Strictly speaking, landfill gas is not a renewable energy source, but a by-product. However, it is a potential source of energy that is underexploited in Northern Ireland as compared to Great Britain. In the Republic of Ireland there is currently an estimated 38 MW of landfill gas-powered generation and 11 MW in Northern Ireland. The system operator SONI has assumed that landfill gas generation capacity will reach 25 MW in Northern Ireland by 202056. SEAI/DECNR57 quantified the potential for landfill gas for 2020 at 47-58 MW. If a capacity factor of 75% is assumed, the use of the higher of these figures will yield around 430 GWh/year.

It is likely that by 2030 waste reduction measures and the exhaustion of existing landfills will have resulted in a substantially reduced landfill gas potential, and the SEAI roadmap for bioenergy shows landfill gas production in the Republic of Ireland dropping to zero by 2030. As such, landfill gas may only make a short-term, non-significant contribution to energy demand in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but it could provide some additional energy in the intervening time, and if it replaces fossil fuel-generated energy then it should be exploited.

Hydropower It is estimated that there is (as of 2012) 21 MW of small-scale hydro capacity installed in rivers and streams across the Republic of Ireland with a further 4 MW in Northern Ireland54. Although this is a mature technology, the lack of suitable new locations limits increased contribution from small-scale hydro. As a result it is likely there will be only a limited expansion of small-scale hydro, if at all.

The larger scale hydropower generation is currently around 240 MW (230 MW in the Republic of Ireland operated by ESB and 10 MW in Northern Ireland). The production of energy from hydropower in Northern Ireland is due to expand with the (small-scale) Roe Valley hydropower project in Derry, but overall, the Garrad Hassan research considered the additional hydropower resource to be limited.

The National Renewable Action Plan for the Republic of Ireland forecasts no growth for electricity generation from hydropower between 2005 and 2020. The All-Island Grid Study found a potential capacity of 99 MW for small hydropower, much of it in very small project sizes. This potential could result in a yearly energy yield of approximately 350 GWh/year, assuming a capacity factor of 40%.

The existing 290 MW pumped-storage station at Turlough Hill, near Glendalough in Wicklow55 (Ireland’s only pumped storage hydroelectricity power plant) is assumed to continue in operation, but does not contribute to net electricity production. Additional pumped storage plant is anticipated.

Figure 9. Hydro power



demand in 2030

Chapter three



Hydro power

25,00020,00015,00010,000

5,0000

30,000

40,00035,000

45,00050,000


Sum of GWh/y


CarBon CaPturE and StoragE (CCS) A means of capturing and storing carbon, usually in the form of carbon dioxide, at the point of generation, usually a fossil fuel power station. The carbon dioxide is usually transported via pipes and stored underground, often in depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

CommIttEE on ClImatE ChangE (CCC) An independent body set up to monitor the UK’s progress towards the targets in the UK’s Climate Change Act and to provide advice to the UK government and and devolved administrations on how to meet these targets.

CurtaIlmEnt The practice of reducing the output of a generator to below what it is capable of producing.

dEPartmEnt of EntErPrISE tradE and InvEStmEnt (dEtI)A Northern Ireland government department with responsibility for energy policy.

dEPartmEnt of CommunICatIonS, EnErgy and natural rESourCES (dCEnr) A Republic of Ireland government department with responsibility for energy policy.

gIgawatt (gw) A unit of electricity equivalent to 1,000 MW or 1,000,000 kW or 1,000,000,000 watts.

gIgawatt hour (gwh) The use of one Gigawatt of electricity equivalent for one hour.

hIgh voltagE dIrECt CurrEnt (hvdC) A high-voltage, direct current (HVDC) electric power transmission system uses direct current for the bulk transmission of electrical power, in contrast with the more common alternating current AC systems. The advantage of HVDC is the ability to transmit large amounts of power over long distances with lower capital costs and with lower losses than AC and is the preferred choice for undersea cables and interconnectors,

though a HDVC will not be synchronous (at the same frequency) as the AC system in the grid.

mEgawatt (mw) One million watts.

mEgawatt hour (mwh) The use of one Megawatt of electricity equivalent for one hour.

SEm The Single Electricity Market, established in 2006, means all electricity produced in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is pooled and suppliers in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland buy electricity from this single pool.

tErawatt 1,000 GW or 1,000,000 MW.

tErawatt hour (twh) The use of one terawatt of electricity for one hour.

gloSSary

Chapter three

kEy fIndIngS The European Climate Foundation’s Roadmap 205058 report looked at scenarios for decarbonising the European electricity system. Its key findings included:

l Energy efficiency measures could reduce the cost of decarbonising the European power sector by up to 30%, thus avoiding the construction of 440 mid-sized coal power stations.

l A future European electricity supply system based on 100% renewable energy and enhanced interconnection is technically feasible. Nuclear and coal CCS plants are not essential to decarbonise the power sector while safeguarding system reliability.

l Increased interconnection between EU member states can substantially reduce the costs of building a European renewable electricity system. In the 80% renewable energy scenario, increased interconnection at EU level reduces the amount of back up power stations would need by up to 35-40%.

l Building interconnection infrastructure amounts to a small part of total infrastructure spending in the EU power sector (0.5% to 1.6% of total power sector costs, according to the report’s 40% and 80% renewable energy scenarios).

Acknowledgements

Author: Malachy Campbell Policy Officer WWF Northern Ireland

WWF Northern Ireland would like to thank the following individuals and organisations for their comments and suggestions: Dick Lewis (SONI), Douglas McIldoon, Professor Brian Norton (DIT), Geoff Smyth (Carbon Trust).

We’d like to thank RSA Insurance Ireland for providing the financial support for this research and GL Garrad Hassan for its research.

We’d also like to thank the following contributors from WWF-UK for their input: Jenny Banks, Alun James, Emmalene Gottwald and Nicolas Molho.

41 SEAI. Renewable Energy Resources in Ireland for 2010 and 2020 – a methodology. 2004, available at www.seai.ie/ Archive1/Files_MiscRE Resources20102020Main Report.pdf

42 Department of Communi- cations, Energy and Natural Resources (DCENR)/ Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI). All Island Grid Study. Workstream 1. Renewable Energy Resource Assessment. ESBI, 2008, accessed at www.dcenr.gov.ie/Energy/ North-South+Cooperation +in+the+Energy+Sector/ All+Island+Electricity+ Grid+Study.htm.

43 SEAI/IMDO Assessment of the Irish Ports & Shipping Requirements for the Marine Renewable Energy Industry. 2011, available at www.seai.ie/Renewables/Ocean_ Energy/Ocean_Energy_Information_Research/ Ocean_Energy_Publica tions/Assessment_of_the _Irish_Shipping_and_ Ports_Requirements_for_ the_Marine_Renewable_Energy_Industry.pdf

44 SEA Scoping Report. Scoping for the Strategic Environmental Assessment on Plans to Develop Offshore Renewable Energy. 2009, available at www.seai.ie/Renewables/Ocean_Energy/Strategic_Environmental_Assessment_of_the_OREDP/

45 www.wyretidalenergy.com/tidal-barrage/la-rance-barrage

46 www.marineturbines.com/3/news/article/17/seagen_tidal_energy_system_reaches_full_power___1_2mw

47 Marine Institute/SEI. Accessible Wave Energy Resource Atlas Ireland. 2005, accessed at www.marine.ie/NR/rdonlyres/90ECB08B-A746-4247-A277-7F9231BF2ED2/0/waveatlas.pdf

48 www.dardni.gov.uk/ruralni/guidelines_for_src_in_nireland.pdf

49 Kuusela, K. Forest Resources in Europe 1950-1990 1994 Cambridge University Press

50 Frost Opportunities for AD CHP systems to treat farm and municipal wastes www.afbini.gov.uk/index/services/services-specialist-advice/renewable-energy/re-anaerobic-digestion/re-anaerobic-digestion-intro/re-anaerobic-digestion-plants.htm

51 Joint Committee on Communications, Energy and Natural Resources – Fourth Report: The Development of Anaerobic Digestion in Ireland January 2011 www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.

52 DETI Draft Onshore Renewable Energy Action Plan http://www.detini.gov.uk/draft_onshore_renewable_electricity_action_plan

53 Biomara http://www.biomara.org/relevance

54 SONI/Eirgrid All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2011-2021 http://www.soni.ltd.uk/upload/All-Island%20GCS%202012-2021.pdf

55 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turlough_Hill

56 SONI/Eirgrid All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2011-2021 http://www.soni.ltd.uk/upload/All-Island%20GCS%202012-2021.pdf

57 SEAI. Renewable Energy Resources in Ireland for 2010 and 2020 – a methodology. 2004, available at http://www.seai.ie/Archive1/Files_Misc/REResources2010 2020MainReport.pdf

58 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050:a practical guide to a prosperous low-carbon Europe, April 2010 http://www.europeanclimate.org/en/programmes/power/roadmap-2050


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1 Positive Energy assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/positive_energy_final_designed.pdf

2 GL Garrad Hassan, Electricity demand and generation for Ireland in 2030, May 2012 (report number 110739-UKGL-R-01 revision E)

3 Ibid, page 14

4 www.mutual-energy.com/Media/Press_Archive/moyle_fault_230712.php

5 SONI/Eirgrid All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2011-2021 www.soni.ltd.uk/upload/All-Island%20GCS%202012-2021.pdf

6 Ibid

7 www.detini.gov.uk/draft_onshore_renewable_electricity_action_plan see page 21



10 Conserve and Save The Energy Efficiency Action Plan for Scotland October 2010, available at www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/326979/0105437.pdf

11 www.denmark.dk/NR/rdonlyres/2BD031EC-AD41-4564-B146-549B273CC02/0/Energy Strategy2050web.pdf

12 Maximising Ireland’s Energy Efficiency - the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2009-2020 www.dcenr.gov.ie/energy/energy+efficiency+and+affordability+division/national+energy+efficiency+action+plan.htm


14 IPCC, (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)] Cambridge University Press.

15 AEA Technology Executive Summary of a report on the assessment of the potential for bioenergy development in Northern Ireland Report to DETI October 2008 available at www.detini.gov.uk/assessment_on_bioenergy_in_ni_oct_2008.pdf

16 Ecology Foundation report Energy Security Ireland on the Edge (page 10) www-static.shell.com/static/irl/downloads/news_and_library/brochures/ecology_foundation_report.pdf

17 International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2008 www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2008.asp

18 UNEP Green Economy Report, available at www.unep.orgDocuments.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=659&ArticleID=6902&l=en

19 PriceWaterhouseCooper 100% renewable electricity A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa www.pwc.co.uk/assets/pdf/100-percent-renewable-electricity.pdf

20 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050:a practical guide to a prosperous low-carbon Europe, April 2010 www.europeanclimate.org/en/programmes/power/roadmap-2050

21 WWF International The Energy Report: 100% renewable energy by 2050, available at wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/

energy_solutions/renewable_energy/sustainable_energy_report/

22 The Committee on Climate Change The Renewable Energy Review 2011, see hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/Renewables%20Review/The%20renewable%20energy%20review_Printout.pdf

23 Energising Northern Ireland report for the Consumer Council by Lord Whitty, see www.consumercouncil.org.uk/newsroom/790/

24 Romani M, Stern N and Zenghelis, D 2011. The basisc economics of low-carbon growth in the UK. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy London School of Economics www2.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/publications/Policy/docs/PB_economics-low-carbon-growth_Jun11.pdf

25 www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/ee_in_deutschland_graf_tab_2009_en.pdf

26 www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/FINAL_LORESWhoIsWinningTheCleanEnergyRace-REPORT-2012(1).pdf

27 www.greenpeace.org.uk/climate/the-case-against-coal-frequently-asked-questions

28 www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-18/germany-s-270-billion-renewables-shift-biggest-since-war

29 www.pewenvironment.org/uploadedFiles/PEG/Publications/Report/FINAL_LORESWhoIsWinningTheCleanEnergyRace-REPORT-2012(1).pdf

30 Innovas Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Service: an industry analysis www.bis.gov.uk/files/file50254.pdf

31 DECC, 2012, Renewables investment and jobs (announced 1 April 2011 – 31 March 2012)

32 Offshore Valuation Report July 2010 – www.offshorevaluation.org/

33 Carbon Trust Focus for success: A new approach to commercialising low carbon technologies www.carbontrust.com/media/42166/ctc752-commercialising-low-carbon-technologies.pdf

34 Jobs and Investment in Irish Wind Energy Powering Ireland’s Economy Deloitte and IWEA 2009, available at www.iwea.com/contentFiles/Documents%20for%20Download/Publications/IWEA%20Policy%20Documents/2009_06_Deloitte_IWEA_Employment_in_Wind_Energy_Report.pdf

35 NI Renewable Energy Supply Chain 2008, Carbon Trust report by Roger Tym and Partners. Figures also available in the Carbon Trust NI submission to the Environment Committee Inquiry into Climate Change February 2009, available at www.niassembly.gov.uk environment/2007 mandate/envir_climate ChangeSubmissions.htm

36 www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/ee_in_deutschland_graf_tab_2009_en.pdf

37 “Effects of the Expansion of Renewable Energies on the German Labour Market with Special Ports_Requirements_for_ the_Marine_Renewable_Energy_Industry.

38 www.erneuerbar.info/inhalt/41914/42719/pdf/pdf/41914.pdf

39 www.denmark.dk/NR/rdonlyres/2BD031EC-AD 41-4564-B146-5549B273 CC02/0EnergyStrategy 2050web.pdf

40 www.windatlas.dk/europe/landmap.html

Why we are hereto stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature.

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® “WWF” registered trademark of WWF-World Wide Fund For nature (formerly World Wildlife Fund), WWF northern ireland, 2nd Floor, 7 exchange Place, Belfast Bt1 2na, t: +44 (0)28 9033 2869, e: [email protected], ni.wwf.org.uk/northernireland

Positive energy in numbers

70%By 2030, more than 70% of the projected electricity demand in the Single Electricity Market could be provided by renewable energy

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If 15% of NI’s energy came from renewables by 2020 up to 33,124 jobs could be created

The island of Ireland has the potential to generate up to 60 times the projected demand for electricity by 2030 from renewables

Imported fossil fuels provide approximately 99% of NI’s primary energy needs, at a cost of approximately £2.3 billion a year, and 96% of RoI’s energy needs at a cost of approximately €6 billion a year

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